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FROM
CENTREBET Centrebet
Capers
Posted 2:05 PM, March 14, 2002
| Rugby
League |
Aussie
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| Basketball |
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Rugby
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Soccer |
RUGBY LEAGUE
Big-betting rugby league punters believe the
Roosters will get off to a flying start in Friday’s first match
of the NRL season, but their price, $1.33, is being held up in the
market because of the hordes of South’s supporters willing to
take the $3.25 about the Rabbitohs making a victorious return to
the league. As soon as betting opened on Monday, bets of $10,000
and $6000, both from Sydney, arrived for the Roosters to win, but
since then, dozens of smaller punters have taken the $3.25 for
South’s, and when the handicap of 9½ points went up, the money
continued for South’s. Invariably Friday night favourites
shorten up late in the betting, so we have been happy to take the
South’s money. Added to that is a strong opinion from within the
Centrebet ranks that emotion alone won’t be enough to get
South’s home, and we fully expect the Roosters to win easily.
Reigning premiers Newcastle will take on the Northern Eagles in
Gosford on Saturday night in a good betting match. The Knights
have been very hard to lay in premiership betting ($7.50), but we
have taken two early bets of $6000 for the Knights ($1.50) to open
up their campaign with a win. Against that, the Eagles beat
Newcastle in both matches last year, so we have seen money for
them at $2.50, and also a $7000 wager for the Eagles with 6½
points start at $1.90.
Only a field goal separated Brisbane and North Qld in the same
match last year, and again we have seen solid support for both
sides. Brisbane won on that occasion, and the $1.33 this week has
been taken by a New Zealand client to the tune of $12,000, and we
have also taken a $25,000 treble for Brisbane to win coupled up
with the Bulldogs ($1.16) and Parramatta ($1.20). We always find
support for the Cowboys at home, particularly with the start, and
four separate bets of $2000 have gone on North Qld with 8½ points
start.
On face value, Parramatta should beat Penrith on Sunday, but
now that it looks as though Penrith’s Ryan Girdler and Craig
Gower maybe surprise starters, punters have rallied behind Penrith
receiving 13½ points start. A new client from Sydney threw $8000
on the Panthers with the start ($1.90), and we have also taken
bets of $3000 and $2500.
The other match on Sunday is a real lottery between the Dragons
and the Sharks. Both sides opened at $1.90, and although the
biggest bet has only been $5000 for the Dragons at $1.90, apart
from the South’s v Roosters match, this has easily been our
busiest game. Action has been split down the middle, but we think
that the Sharks, with new half back Brett Kimmorley, will come
away with the two points.
This week we have taken another two big premiership doubles,
both including the Brisbane Bronco’s. A Queensland punter has
taken the Broncos into both the Brisbane Lions and Essendon, each
wager being $7000 at a dividend of $15. Canberra have been backed
to make the finals with a bet of $6000 at $3, while the Roosters
and the Bulldogs, both quoted at $9, are the best backed sides
this week in premiership betting. As yet, nobody has taken a fancy
to the $2.25 for Nathan Blacklock to be the leagues leading
try-scorer, but Nigel Vagana ($34) and Ryan Cross ($51) have each
been backed to win $20,000. There is also a market on how Alfie
Langer will perform in 2002. Punters can bet on how many tries the
little fella will get this season, with the early money being for
8-9 and 10-11 tries at $5.50 and $6 respectively. Langer has
averaged a try every 2½ games throughout his NRL career, but of
course the Broncos were a bigger force in those halcyon days.
Opinions are divided on how he will go, but that is what betting
is all about.
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AUSSIE RULES
The Wayne Carey bombshell is the end of the
Kangaroos for 2002. The catch has always been "no Carey, no
Kangaroos”. Punters know it and we know it and they are right.
They are 50-1 shots now and their best chance of winning anything
looks to be the AFL wooden spoon.
Three consecutive losses is not the form line that should lead
to a $50,000 plunge, but that is what has happened on the AFL.
Essendon lost all three Wizard Cup matches, but that hasn’t
deterred a Victorian client who this week placed $50,000 on the
Bombers to make the finals at $1.16. Every season, one of the
"good things" misses out, hopefully it might be the
Bombers’ turn this year!
We have taken a drastic step following the stories from the
West this week. Betting on the wooden spoon has been suspended
following the drug allegations concerning two players from the
West Coast. If they are substantiated, and the players were
suspended, the $4 for the West Coast to run last would be well and
truly over the odds.
Richmond and Port Adelaide will play off for the Wizard Cup
this Saturday. Port have been dealt an ordinary deck by being
forced to play in Melbourne, but at least it has evened up the
betting. Those that took the $1.90 Port to win the final before
last week’s semi’s (including one bet of $10,000), would have
been in a state of shock when the AFL announced the final would be
in Melbourne.
Port battled hard to put the Sydney Swans out of the
competition in a relatively quiet match considering who the
combatants were. The other match was a different story! After
taking plenty of early action on Richmond at $1.65, a group of
Melbourne punters stepped in and backed Adelaide from $2.10 into
$1.70. It always pays to be cautious on pre-season matches, but
when it was confirmed that Richmond would be "as-named"
it gave us the necessary confidence to go on with Adelaide. A
South Australian client also joined in late with $12,000 on
Adelaide to win at $1.75, and he, along with all other Crows
supporters, would have been disappointed by the 39 point loss.
Richmond opened at $2 for this week’s final, but following
the first $6000 worth of bets all being for the Tigers, we have
brought them in slightly to $1.90. Port Adelaide are a very
popular side however, and they have their admirers at $1.85.
Richmond looked pretty good last week, but we think that the
Tigers’ backline will struggle to hold Port’s "tall
timber".
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GOLF
A South Australian golf punter scooped the pool
last week, winning over $30,000 on first time winners Gavin Coles
and Matt Kuchar. This punter, who has a penchant for backing
outsiders, placed $100 each way both Coles and Kuchar at the
luxurious odds of $126.
Coles, a battler from Bathurst, won more in prizemoney last
weekend in the Jacobs Creek than he had in total for the previous
nine years. It was hardly an inspiring form line to be backing
Coles on, but one braver punter placed $6000 on Coles at $2.50
just prior to the last round beginning. Coles, American Bryce
Molder and Peter Fowler, all got themselves into a winning
position before faltering, but it was Coles who steadied with a
final round of par 72.
Although losing on the Jacobs Creek, we still managed to
struggle out with a small credit after Kuchar’s first PGA Tour
win. The amount of recent "first time" winners has been
incredible, and we have noticed a distinct trend with punters now
not afraid to back golfers at long quotes. Favourite Retief Goosen
($11) was backed to win close to $60,000 by Danish punters, but a
host of "roughies", including Jesper Parnevik, Steve
Flesch, Carlos Franco and Dudley Hart were all backed to win in
excess of $25,000.
This week, "Tigermania" is back as Tiger Woods tries
to win his third Bay Hill Invitational on end. We opened the great
man at $5, but bets of $4000 and $2500 soon saw that price cut to
$4, and that has also been taken. Ernie Els, a heavily backed
winner of the Dubai Open, is second elect at $9, but while Els is
in magnificent form, punters must think that the travel will be
too taxing as we haven’t found much interest in the big South
African. Should he be able to win again, Els will continue to firm
for the US Masters, for which he is now a clear $9 second
favourite. Phil Mickelson, runner up last year and previous winner
in 1997, has been backed to win $20,000 each way at $17 by a
Tasmanian punter, while we have also seen backing for Paul Azinger
($61) and John Daly at $67.
For those interested, the person who backed Coles and Kuchar
last week has backed Vijay Singh at $23 to win the Bay Hill
Invitational and Bryce Molder ($34), Brad Kennedy ($41) and Jason
Caron ($67) to win the Holden Clearwater Classic.
Darren Clarke ($10) and Ricardo Gonzalez ($31) will go into the
Qatar Masters as our worst results. It’s not an overstrong
field, and Adam Scott looks Australia’s bets chance at $29.
On this side of the world, New Zealand will hold their richest
ever tournament this week in Christchurch. The Holden Clearwater
Classic is another of the Buy.com Tour events, so a similar field
to last week’s Jacobs Creek event has been assembled. Stephen
Leaney and Peter O’Malley share favourtism at $15, with Leaney
already backed to take out $20,000 by a Victorian punter. Several
outsiders have been backed, but for a change punters have
completely disregarded Aaron Baddeley ($29).
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BASKETBALL
It’s going to take a mighty fine
"performance" from somebody to grab Centrebet’s 2002
"choke of the year" award from the Sydney Kings, even
though the year is only two months old! The Kings are again out of
the finals after being favourites for the first six weeks when
they looked invincible. Needing two wins last weekend, the Kings
lost both, with the first being a major shock when Brisbane
defeated them 113-110. We did find a client from Canberra who
thought Brisbane could win, placing $800 on them at $6.60, but
aside from that it was all Sydney. A Sydney client placed $8000 on
the Kings at $1.11, and we also took two $5000 bets for the Kings
conceding 12 points start.
It was a mixed weekend for Centrebet on the NBL with major
losses incurred when Cairns thrashed Canberra (103-80) and Perth
defeated Wollongong (114-106), but Adelaide’s 7 point victory
over Townsville and the Titans shock 9 point defeat by Melbourne
squared the ledger. The Titans will probably derive some long term
benefit from that loss, but that will be small solace for the
Victorian punter who put $18,000 on the Titans at $1.22.
Out of the weekend’s results, the win by the Tigers has got
them a finals berth, and with the impending return of Andrew Gaze
due, the title price of the Tigers has more than halved, now into
$9 from $21.
The ABC have copped plenty of criticism for chopping off the
final two minutes of the women’s preliminary final, so there
isn’t any need for us to jump on the bandwagon. Naturally, it
was quite disappointing for all viewers and especially those who
had had a punt on the game. We said last week that Adelaide were a
risk, but nearly every bet was for the home side, including one of
$2800 at $1.75.
Adelaide, down by 11 at half time, did a magnificent job to
fight back and take the game to overtime, but it looked more a
case of Sydney getting stage fright. The big final on Saturday
will see Canberra go in as $1.52 favourites to beat Sydney. Aided
by a week’s rest, and a doubt on Sydney’s ability mentally
after last week’s cliffhanger, we think Canberra will win for
sure. Early signs are that punters disagree with the first ten
bets all for Sydney, either to win at $2.40 or with the 4½ points
start.
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CRICKET
After a marathon bowling performance by Shane
Warne, Australia eventually won the second test against South
Africa to clinch the Series, but not before they went from short
priced favourites to underdogs.
This was a massive betting test before it got under way, with
betting coming in two waves, firstly for Australia ($2 into $1.57)
and then for the draw ($3.20 into $2.80) in the hours before the
match started. An Indian punter who had plonked $20,000 on the
draw at $2.70 a week earlier, came back two hours before the test
started with another $20,000 at $3.25, and that was followed by
another $10,000 at $3.
At the end of the first day, a Sydney punter placed $50,000 on
Australia at $1.18 which of course gave us a terrific opportunity
to make a good book when South Africa got themselves back into the
game. When the Proteas looked some hope, we were able to lay them
at $3 and the draw again at $6, so the end result with Australia
winning wasn’t too bad.
In Australia’s second innings, opener Matthew Hayden looked
certain to score another century which would have kept his hopes
alive to equal Don Bradman’s record of a century in six
consecutive tests. Dozens of punters took the odds we had on offer
for Hayden to equal that feat, which was backed to take out close
to $50,000. The biggest bet did come from Queensland with a wager
of $2000 at $11, and I don’t think anybody expected Hayden to
"hole out" when so close to another hundred.
The third and final test begins in Durban on Friday. We put the
betting up expecting South Africa to again be without Shaun
Pollock, but there were some good signs for South Africa in the
second test. Quite often when Australia have already wrapped up a
series we see money for their opposition, and the $7 for South
Africa has been quite popular, even with Australian punters. We
have also taken bets of $12,000 and $8000 for Australia at $1.67,
while a South African has placed $8000 on the draw at $2.75. With
the series decided, interest is well down on the final test, but
looking at some of the post match interviews from the second test,
the Aussie look pretty eager to win the series 3-0.
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RUGBY UNION
With all six Super 12 favourites winning, and
five of those covering the handicap, you wouldn’t have to have a
degree in mathematics to work out that we had an ordinary weekend
on Super 12. The only good piece of news was that the Reds, who
had been heavily backed conceding 14½ points, fell short by half
a point in their 27-13 win over the Chiefs. Most of the support
for the Reds came from New Zealand, led up by a bet of $15,000
from a punter who resides in Wellington.
The 40-8 thrashing given to the Cats by the Highlanders was in
fact a good result for Centrebet. Late bets of $10,000 and $4000
came in late for the Highlanders conceding 24½ points start, but
we had already taken early bets totaling close to $45,000 for the
Cats with 25½ points start. One punter from NSW invested $27,500
of that total in three bets, but he did recoup most of that after
placing $22,000 on the Waratahs at -8½ to beat the Bulls. The
Bulls maintained their consistent form and were hammered 51-19.
This means the Waratahs return to Australia undefeated, and their
supporters are talking about winning the title. The Waratahs are
into $6 behind the Brumbies ($2.40) and the Crusaders ($4), and
this week a Queensland punter placed $10,000 on the Waratahs to
make the semis at $1.60.
The upcoming round will feature three very even matches and two
which appear one sided. The Brumbies and the Waratahs are both
$1.07 to inflict some pain on the Cats and the Bulls. All the
interest has been on the handicaps, with the two biggest bets
belonging to a New Zealander who has placed $10,000 on both
favourites conceding the huge starts.
Two bets, each of $5000, have come from South Africa for the
Sharks ($2.10) to beat the Hurricanes in Wellington. Normally we
would take on these South African sides but with doubts still
lingering over both Christian Cullen and Tana Umaga, we are
treading carefully.
The Highlanders haven’t won away from home for two years, but
punters have rallied behind them when they travel to Cape Town to
take on the Stormers. It’s all been Kiwi dollars for the
Highlanders at $2, including bets of $10,000 and $4300, but we are
happy to take them on.
The match of the round features the Reds at home to the
Crusaders. You could put up a really good argument for either
side, so following that line of thinking we posted both at $1.90.
In a monstrous betting game, Australians have got behind the Reds,
now into $1.85, but there is also money from across the Tasman for
the Crusaders. The Reds had to struggle to stave off the Chiefs
last week, but we think they will rise to occasion this week.
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HARNESS RACING
The barrier draw points toward Victorian
Shakamaker winning this year’s Inter Dominion, and he has been
installed as the $2.75 favourite. Shakamaker should get the lead
from barrier 4, but it will be interesting to see if Brian Hancock
on Courage Under Fire ($4) will try for the lead.
"Courage" isn’t a good result for us after opening at
$11, but he would still be much better than Kiwi raider Stars and
Stripes. After opening at $101, Stars and Stripes is now a $7
chance, and while a lot of people have ruled him out after drawing
barrier 10, the race could be set up for the "swoopers"
if they declare war on up in front, and that must be some hope of
happening.
La Coocaracha deserves her quote of $1.45 in the Trotters
final, and despite the 25 metre handicap, she should get the
chocolates. Game Bid has been a firmer this week, into $7 after
being $11 on Monday and is the only one outside the favourite
given a hope at all. The Elitlopp in Sweden is still two months
away but we have already seen money for at least 10 horses to win
the world’s best trotting race. Italian Champion Varenne is now
into $2.25 to win again after opening at $2.50. The largest early
bet has been $2500 from an Italian client, and we saw how popular
Varenne was last year. The field looks likely to be very similar
to last year, and we will be keen to see if Lyell Creek ($25) make
the trip following on from four recent wins in America.
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SOCCER
Everybody likes to hear stories of punters
having big wins off bookies, and we can report one big winner from
last weekend, and another who came awfully close. A Norwegian
punter collected 794,000NOK ($AUD 175,000) from an outlay of
30,000NOK after correctly predicting that Brugge, Ajax, Feyenoord,
Middlesbrough, Hertha, Schalke, Mallorca and Valencia would all
win their matches.
The unlucky punter was an Australian who outlayed $1000 for a
collect of $152,000, and he came ever so close. He took
Middlesbrough, Chelsea, Fulham, and Roma to win in Europe, the
Sharks and the Melbourne Knights to win their Australian soccer
matches, and rounded the bet off with two "shorties" in
Andre Agassi and Andy Roddick to win their tennis finals. Agassi
won, but unbelievably Roddick, a $1.25 chance, was beaten by
Davide Sanguinetti in the Delray Beach final!
Soccer punters definitely got the better of us last weekend.
The three FA Cup matches on Sunday saw all winners heavily backed,
including a $30,000 bet for Chelsea at $2.55 (from Hong Kong).
Chelsea easily disposed of Tottenham 4-0.
This weekend, there are plenty of odds on favourites that
punters have launched into. A German client has invested 12,000
Euro on both Chelsea ($1.55 against Sunderland) and Liverpool
($1.85 against Middlesbrough) to win their matches.
In Italy, there has been an early push for Fiorentina ($3) to
beat Bologna, and a very astute Italian client has taken the $1.70
for Inter Milan to beat Lecce.
Next week we will take an updated look at the Academy Awards
following the changes after the Actors Guild Award presentations.
Until next week, good punting For further information contact
Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com
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