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FROM
CENTREBET Centrebet
Capers
Posted 1:25 PM, March 21, 2002
| Rugby
League |
Australian
Rules |
Rugby
Union |
| Cricket |
Basketball |
Racing |
| Golf |
Entertainment |
Soccer |
RUGBY LEAGUE
Centrebet ran a distant second behind punters on
the opening round of NRL with the only good news being the shock
win by Wests Tigers over pre-season hot shots the Bulldogs. The
Tigers had many admirers receiving 14½ points start, including
one Sydney regular who invested a total of $17,500 on them with
the start, but to offset that there was a small fortune placed on
the Bulldogs through multiple bets, coupled up with all the other
"good things".
Things got off to a bad start on Friday night when the planned
fairytale for South's turned into not only a nightmare for them,
but also for Centrebet. As we reported last week, the small money
was for South's, but the bigger league punters stepped in, backing
the Roosters from $1.35 into $1.28, and also forcing the line to
move 2 points.
We also did plenty of damage when Newcastle thumped the Eagles
38-12. A Queensland client placed $25,000 on the Knights ($1.50)
into Melbourne ($1.50) to win and we also saw bets of $15,000,
$10,000 (twice) and $8000 come for Newcastle conceding 6½ points
start. Incredibly, one of the $10,000 bets came after it was
announced that both Adam McDougall and Ben Kennedy would be out of
the Knights side, so it could well have been an easier win for the
reigning premiers.
A rampant Parramatta confirmed their premiership favourtism
with a nice old caning of Penrith. Rumours were floating around
that the Panthers would be missing both Ryan Girdler and Craig
Gower, so we took the precaution of shifting the line from -12½
out to -15½ after taking a $10,000 bet for Parramatta, but at the
same time seeing some support for the Panthers. At the same time
John Lang was on television saying both Girdler and Gower would
play, a NSW client placed $10,000 on the Eels giving up the start,
which now seemed very short. We knew we were in trouble when David
Vaeliki scored three tries in the opening 10 minutes, and the Eels
went on to record a very impressive 64-6 win.
The other match played in the hot conditions on Sunday saw the
Sharks edge out St George-Illawarra 24-18. Initially the money was
for the Dragons, led by a $15,000 wager at $1.90 from country NSW,
but on the day of the match all the Dragons money had dried up,
and in fact the Sharks started slight favourites at $1.85. The
Sharks also landed a winning $4000 bet at $3.50 on the winning
margin by them being under 12½ points, but we got to hang onto a
$7000 bet that the game total would be over 48½ points.
Melbourne looked pretty ordinary beating Canberra, but at least
one punter thinks they can win again. Within minutes of opening
this week's markets, we laid a $2000 wager for the Storm to beat
the Sharks at $5, but we fully expect the Sharks to be an
"anchor" in most multiple bets.
While we have listed Brisbane as $1.25 favourites at home on
Friday night, plenty are prepared to forgive the performance by
the Bulldogs last week. Value hunters have taken the $3.75 for the
Bulldogs, but it is the +9½ points where the early money has
gone. Bets of $6600 and $5000 have gone on the Bulldogs, but as we
have pointed out before, Friday night favourites are really easy
to lay.
There are a couple of good games on Sunday, led up by the
Warriors at home to the Roosters. New Zealand have been backed to
win the competition at $26, so we can expect them to be fired up
for this match, and the Roosters have lost half back Paul Green
for the season. The opening price of $2.10 for the Warriors was
taken by a few New Zealanders, including one bet of $4500, but we
have also taken bets of $10,000 and $4000 for the Roosters at
$1.70.
Penrith get a chance to atone for last week's performance
against the Eels when they take on the Dragons and new coach Lang
has not panicked. We think it will be a different Penrith this
week, and have taken several large bets for the Dragons including
a bet of $8000 on them conceding 3½ points start.
There hasn't been too much change to premiership betting, but
at the other end of the scale there has been some movement in the
wooden spoon. Three of the best backed sides to run last, Wests,
Melbourne and the Sharks, all won in the first round, so all three
have eased back out. The Eagles are still favourites at $3, with
South's into $4.25 and Penrith into $9.
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AUSTRALIAN RULES
Richmond rallied late against Port Adelaide in
the Wizard Cup final, but it was really only when the game was all
over. Port continue to impress, and are now into $7 to win the
Premiership in one of the biggest pre-season moves in recent
history. $13 was available when betting opened in December, and
now Port are on the third line of betting just ahead of another
"shortener" in Hawthorn ($7.50).
The late money in the Wizard Cup was for Richmond, so what was
shaping as a shocking result if Port won, turned out not too
badly. Port were easily best backed since the series began, but on
the day of the match close to $40,000 was placed on Richmond to
win, and also with a goal start.
There is now a week off before the real season begins, so the
rush has begun to take the "futures" prices. Brownlow
betting is already well up on previous years, and this week a
Melbourne man has placed $5000 on Andrew McLeod at $11, as well as
$2000 each way Robert Harvey at $26. Over the past few weeks,
Hawthorn's Daniel Chick ($41 - $21), the Roos' Brent Harvey ($34 -
$31), West Coasts David Wirrpunda ($101 - $67) and St Kilda's
Aussie Jones ($201 - $141) have all been backed to take out in
excess of $50,000.
Essendon forward Matthew Lloyd is our $1.80 favourite to win
the Coleman Medal (leading goal scorer). A "reborn"
Barry Hall, now with Sydney, is second pick at $11 ahead of
Geelong's Ben Graham at $17.
The fallout from the Wayne Carey saga is still being felt, and
while we have only taken one bet for the Roos' to win the flag
(and that was only $20) in the past week at $41, we have taken
several hundred dollars for the once mighty Kangaroos to collect
the wooden spoon at $88. It's impossible to lay the Roos' to make
the final 8 at $2.50, and as a result of that we have started to
see money come for sides that were tipped to miss out. Fremantle
are the best example, now into $3 after bets totaling $4000 were
placed on them this week at $3.20.
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RUGBY UNION
Sunday saw the biggest betting game of Super 12
we have ever experienced when the Queensland Reds took on, and
were defeated, by the Crusaders.
After opening at $1.90 each, the Reds were backed into $1.70 at
kick-off, with most expecting them to be better suited to the
oppressive conditions, but it was the Crusaders who adapted
better. As the Crusaders were drifting out in the betting, we
accepted a $20,000 bet from New Zealand at $2 which was followed
by a $15,000 wager when they touched $2.10. An Australian client
punched through a massive $45,000 bet on the Reds conceding 2½
points start at $1.90, and another noteworthy bet was $15,000 on
the Reds to win outright at $1.76.
Betting also came for both sides in the clash between the
Stormers and the Highlanders in Cape Town. Early on it was money
from New Zealand for the Highlanders at $2, but Saturday night saw
a steady stream of substantial bets for the Stormers. The
Highlanders narrow 21-20 victory was their first away from home in
two seasons, and maybe the catalyst that they needed.
Punters were eager to concede the big starts given by both the
Waratahs and the Brumbies, but neither side managed to
"cover". A Kiwi punter placed $10,000 on both at -25½
points ($1.90), and he had plenty of mates as well who thought
both matches would be walkovers. Out of the weekend’s matches,
only one favourite beat the spread, and that was the Hurricanes,
who scored a decisive 40-17 win over the Sharks.
Most games this week are one sided on paper, hence an increase
has been noted in handicap betting.
First up, the Hurricanes get a chance to get a bonus point when
they host the Cats. On paper, the Cats look a far inferior side to
the Sharks, and they were beaten 23 points by the Hurricanes last
week, so it’s not surprising we have seen money for the
Hurricanes at -20½ points. It has also been popular, with punters
to couple up the Hurricanes into the Highlanders, who are
conceding 18 points start to the Bulls late on Friday night. One
bet alone of $8000 on the double arrived from a QLD punter, but
the Bulls showed enough against the Brumbies last week to suggest
hey can get inside this week's handicap.
The same theory applies to the Waratahs, who go in as raging
$1.10 or -18½ against the Sharks. We have taken a bet of $16,000
on the Waratahs to win outright as well as three bets totaling
close to $26,000, all from NSW, for the Waratahs to cover the
spread, but with Matthew Rogers in doubt, they look like a small
risk.
Punters think that the Brumbies can be beaten by the Stormers
on Saturday night, but we are not so sure. It has been a struggle
to sell the ACT at $1.33, and several of our Union punters have
taken the 8 points start that the Stormers are receiving.
One punters from NSW will be eager to see the Brumbies maintain
their unbeaten status. Prior to last weekends round beginning, he
placed $50,000 on the Brumbies to make the semi finals at $1.08,
and while that will probably eventuate, a loss to the Stormers
would make things interesting.
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CRICKET
Had South African batsman Neil McKenzie not been
run out for 99 in the second test, South Africa might well have
won the Series 2-1, and not Australia! But "what if's"
aside, it was good to finally see a couple of decent contests,
culminating in a win by the Proteas in the last Test.
Despite clear weather and a report of a lively pitch, our
Indian punters jumped into the draw again. One alone placed
$40,000 on the draw at $3 before things got under way, and that
was after some significant money had gone on at $2.70 and $2.80.
With the series decided, and the right conditions to yield a
result, we gave the draw option a real "stand" in the
betting, and we never had too many concerns as the wickets
crumbled. The Aussies were "layable" at around the $1.70
mark before the game started, while things were balanced up nicely
at the end of the second days play when another of our Indian
clients placed $18,000 on the South Africans at $3 at the end of
the second day.
What that all means is that we have a real contest on our hands
in the One Day matches beginning on Friday. Australia have a new
look squad, and the South Africans have some confidence back, and
must be realistic chance to bounce back. Aussie punters have taken
the $1.67 for Ricky Ponting's men to go one up in the best of
seven series, but we most certainly haven't been swamped like we
have in the past.
The Pura Cup final begins at the GABBA on Friday, and it will
be interesting to see if the pitch is the "minefield"
that it was in last week's match against Victoria. If so, and on
current form, Tasmania look terrific value at the $2.60. Added to
that is that QLD will have to endure a new opening pair with Matty
Hayden and Jimmy Maher on national duty. Normally any team hosting
a Cup final goes around at near unbackable odds, but at the time
of writing, the biggest bet for a Queensland win was only $1800 at
$1.45. This looks like one year when a predictable draw to the
home side, which is enough to get the Cup, might not be a
formality.
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BASKETBALL
Although dead and buried as far as the finals
are concerned, the Sydney Kings match last weekend was the best
betting match of the round. The Kings won a thriller by 2 points
in overtime, and while they landed a winning bet of $10,000 at
$1.90 (brave punter!), it was Perth who carried the hopes of most
gamblers. A Sydney client placed $9000 on Perth at the opening
quote of $2, and a Victorian man followed in with $22,000 at
$1.90. Whilst he may have been lamenting that narrow loss, just
down the road West Sydney were disposing of Adelaide in grand
style (113-88) which saw the same person win $13,500 after placing
$15,000 on the Razorbacks at -9½.
There are a couple of positions on the ladder yet to be
decided, so there is motivation there for a few sides in the final
round this week, but there is a huge chance of an upset in
Brisbane's match against Victoria. Brisbane have performed well
recently, are at home, and Victoria have their first playoff on
the following Wednesday. The Titans will not be keen to travel
north for a game that means nothing, and will not be prepared to
risk injury to their big names. That is why we have the Titans at
what seems to be a much over-priced $1.60, so if you find any big
odds around Brisbane, we suggest you take it.
The WNBL final went as expected, with victory going to Canberra
75-69 over Sydney. Plenty of publicity seemed to spark interest in
this match, and betting was progressing nicely until one of our
regular punters who bets big decided to play on the game. His
$15,000 bet on Canberra at $1.50 turned a nice betting book into a
horror result for a women's basketball match, but that's the risk
involved.
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RACING
Unbeaten Victorian Bel Esprit will go into
Saturday's Golden Slipper as favourite at $3.25, but the colt has
his critics. Expected pressure is tipped to be his undoing as some
say he is suspect at 1200 metres, but this is not the best Slipper
field ever assembled, and all you can do is win! A perfect draw of
barrier one has seen bets of $2500 and $2000 come from Victorian
punters, but Choisir has attracted a $2000 each way bet at $6 and
the Bede Murray trained Victory Vein, despite a poor barrier. has
been backed to win $10,000 each way at $7.50.
Universal Prince, also trained by Murray, finally had the
breaks go his way last start and has been installed as $2.20 to
win the BMW. Universal Prince, a shock Melbourne Cup scratching
last November, always needs a bit of luck, and there aren't many
takers. Now that Shane Dye is back on Tie the Knot, we have taken
a $4000 bet for him at $2.75, while Rain Gauge, who ran a close
third in the Australian Cup, has been backed to take out $15,000
at $13.
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GOLF
Phil Mickelson is in training for next month's
US Masters following another late capitulation in the Bay Hill
Invitational which saw Tiger Woods go on and win. Woods had led
for two days, but Mickelson temporarily hit the front, but as far
as we were concerned it didn't matter who won as both had been
backed for a stack.
Both have again been well supported to win the Players
Championship, or the "fifth major," this week. Woods,
the defending champion, has had a single bet of $6000 placed on
him at $3.75, and it is worth noting no player has ever defended
the players Championship successfully. Mickelson ($19-17) and
Josie Maria Olazabal ($41) have each been backed to take out
$40,000 by an English punter, while head to head betting has also
seen plenty of action take place. Bets of $10,000 and $5000 have
been put on Scott Verplank ($1.85) to beat Jim Furyk, the same two
bets have gone on Scott Hoch ($1.85) to defeat Padraig Harrington,
and $20,000 in bets have gone on Nick Price ($1.75) to beat Thomas
Bjorn and Cameron Beckman ($1.85) to beat Shigeki Maryama. Looks
like we are in for an exciting weekend!
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ENTERTAINMENT
We are all hoping Russell Crowe will win the
Best Actor category at the Academy Awards to see if "Russ the
Rebel" will try and overstay his welcome on the podium. We
aren't betting on that, but Crowe will go in as pronounced
favourite at $1.40 to grab another award. Aussie punters continue
to take the short odds, led up by a bet of $8000, but overseas
punters continue to back Denzel Washington ($3.50) and Will Smith
($6.25), obviously thinking that Crowe's outburst in England will
be detrimental.
Close to $50,000 has been wagered on the Best Actress award
with all five nominees backed. Although Halle Berry ($3) won the
Actors Guild award, Sissy Spacek remains the well backed favourite
at $1.65. Aussie punters, and a Canadian, have got right behind
Nicole Kidman. We took a bet of $2500 for Nicole from Toronto at
$4.25, and that was after an avalanche of money from on-shore, but
has Nicole won enough of the awards leading up to this one to
count?
Best Picture looks a race in two between A Beautiful Mind
($1.45) and Lord of the Rings ($2.50), Ian McLellan is the $1.80
favourite to be Best Supporting Actor in a quiet betting affair,
while Jennifer Connelly looks the goods at $1.10 to be the Best
Supporting Actress. Plenty has also been wagered on the Best
Director, with the first three in the betting, led up by Ron
Howard at $1.50, all attracting an equal amount of support.
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SOCCER
Although they played a draw in their previous FA
Cup encounter, Arsenal go into Saturday night's replay as $1.65
favourites to progress. Newcastle's form has slipped over the past
three weeks, and Arsenal have been on fire, and punters are more
than happy to stick with them. As soon as Arsenal opened at $1.70,
two English clients hopped in with 4000 and 2500 pounds and that
trend looks like continuing.
Some struggling sides go round at short odds this weekend and
have had backing. Charlton showed a return to form with a win over
Tottenham, but do appear rather short at $1.80 to beat Bolton. In
amongst the early bets for Charlton has been a wager of 8000 Euro
from Germany, and the same client has placed 4000 Euro on a
struggling Ipswich at $2.55 to defeat Aston Villa.
The big match of the round is on Sunday when Liverpool ($1.80),
who are pressurising Man United and Arsenal at the top of the
table, to try and get over Chelsea. Naturally there has been money
for all three options in what looks a good battle, but when there
are only one or two matches on, the favourites always are a
shocking result for us, so we cant wish Liverpool any luck!
Things have been quiet in Italy this week except for two games.
A few of our Italian clients have taken the $1.50 Bologna to beat
Lecce. It is most unusual to see money at those prices in Italian
football, so we can probably pencil in Bologna as a likely winner.
The other game of interest is the match between top of the
table contestants Inter Milan and Roma. The $2.25 Milan has been a
solid go, but the money from Italy, including a $7000 wager has
been for the draw at $2.90.
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Until next week, good punting For further information contact
Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com
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