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FROM
CENTREBET Centrebet
Capers
Posted 4:25 PM, March 28, 2002
| Australian
Rules |
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Union |
| Basketball |
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AUSTRALIAN RULES
Punters expect Richmond to give them a flying
start to a big Easter sporting weekend tonight (Thurs) when they
host Collingwood in the first match of AFL season 2002. But
Richmond haven't been the most consistent side of recent years and
quite often go over when favourites and if there are early upsets
they often occur in the first round.
The Tigers are $1.40, and as well as being the first leg of
several big multiple bets, we've also taken bets of $7500 and
$5000 for them to win outright. The handicap of -18½ hasn't been
overly popular, but a Sydney based client has conceded the start
with a bet of $5500.
We maintain that Carlton will struggle this year, and we've
been eager to lay them against St Kilda at Colonial Stadium on
Saturday. The Blues are also $1.40, and apart from two early bets
of $2500, we haven’t seen much action this match. Favourite
backers think that Port Adelaide will open their winning account
against a Wayne Carey-less Kangaroos outfit at Footy Park on
Saturday night. Port are $1.20, a price which caught the eye of a
Victorian punter who has plonked $18,000 on the South Australian
side. We have also taken several sizeable wagers on Port giving up
30½ points start, and already it looks as though punters will be
giving the Roos a wide berth this year.
The Sydney v Brisbane match is shaping as the best betting
match of the round, hotly followed by the local derby between West
Coast and Fremantle. The Sydney match is a promoter’s dream,
with Tony Lockett returning for the Swans, and Brisbane being the
reigning premiers. Sydney showed enough in the Wizard Cup to
suggest they will be a force in 2002, and as soon as betting
opened we took just on $8000 for the Swans at $2. Against that,
Brisbane punters obviously rate the Lions highly already as two
big bets of $6500 and $5000 came in from Queensland for the Lions
at $1.75.
Money from the west has been split between both West Coast and
Fremantle at Subiaco on Sunday. We were quite impressed by the
West Coast in the pre season, and after taking some early money
for them at $1.85, moved them into $1.80, drifting the Dockers out
to $1.95. A Perth punter has taken that with a bet of $10,000, but
the Dockers will really miss Clive Waterhouse, out for the season,
and explosive forward Jeff Farmer.
The Bulldogs have a great record against the Crows, but both
really struggled last year. The Bulldogs would have gone into
Sundays encounter at Colonial as outsiders, but now that Chris
Grant has been cleared to play, the game has been posted at $1.90
your pick. We expect the late money to be for the home side, but
most of the early action, including a $6000 bet from Adelaide, has
been for the Crows.
Port Adelaide continue to attract support in premiership
betting, with the $7 now being taken. This week we have also taken
a $2000 bet for Adelaide ($26) and a $1500 wager for Carlton ($21)
as punters try to secure the best odds before the form is exposed.
A bet of $10,000 has come for Richmond to make the finals at
$1.35, and we continue to see money for Fremantle ($3) and West
Coast ($4.75) to make the final eight. A total of 12 sides have
been backed to win the wooden spoon, and while the West Coast
remain favourites at $4.25 to win the league's most unprestigious
award, Melbourne were backed this week to take out $20,000 at $8.
Yesterday, a Melbourne man backed Jonathon Brown of the Brisbane
Lions to win $200,000 to take this year’s Brownlow. We have cut
Brown’s odds from $81 to $51.
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RUGBY LEAGUE
West Tigers, the side best backed prior to round
one to win the wooden spoon, defied their critics again to score a
shock win over premiership favourites Parramatta on Sunday. The
Tigers proved their first round victory over the Bulldogs was no
fluke, and while the winning bets of $1500 and $1000 were landed
at $6.50, the win was a monster result for Centrebet. The Eels
were looked upon as the safest bet of the round, with the line
moving two points. A Sydney client had three separate cracks at
the Eels, placing a total of $34,000 on them conceding 15 points
start. The same person would now be in a state of shock after his
only other bet for the round, $20,000 on Canberra conceding 12
points to South’s, was also a loser when the injury riddled
Rabbitohs beat Canberra 30-22. South’s had plenty of players
out, and those punters who backed them in the opening round
against the Roosters would be kicking themselves for not taking
the $5 we were offering against what appears to be a very ordinary
Canberra side.
Plenty of money was won when Newcastle spanked North Queensland
50-18. The handicap moved four points against the Cowboys, and
until they can do something about their flimsy defense, they will
be getting some big starts on the road.
Shannon Hegarty's two errors late in the second half might have
cost the Roosters victory against New Zealand, but the Kiwis had
so much of the ball in the first half that it was hard to believe
that they only held a 10 point lead at half time. The Warriors
have had the wood on the Roosters when previously playing in
Auckland, so we decided to risk the Roosters. Money came from New
Zealand for the Warriors at $2.10 and $2.05. One of our biggest
Rugby League clients invested a total of $32,000 on the Roosters,
so we weren’t that unhappy to see Hegarty bomb those tries.
What we won on that game went flying straight back out the door
when St George-Illawarra hung on to beat Penrith 24-22 after only
scoring a penalty in the second half. Penrith coach John Lang
labeled his side a joke after the match, and at least two Dragons
supporters are laughing all the way to the bank after each placing
$20,000 on the Dragons at -2 points ($1.90).
The wins by underdogs in round two have sparked plenty of
interest in outsiders in the upcoming round. The $2.40 for the
Roosters to beat Brisbane was quickly snapped up with bets of
$7000 and $4000, and that was followed by a $10,000 bet at $2.30.
Those punters however may wish they could hit us with a "late
scratching" with the shock withdrawal of Brad Fittler. Not
only do the Roosters have to back up after travelling and playing
last Sunday they have to beat the Broncos with Fittler and prop
Adrian Morley who has been suspended. Some punters "got the
tip" about Fittler being injured and got set with bookies. We
knew something was up when they took "slight unders"
with Centrebet and then told us Fittler wouldn't play. History
shows they struggle without Fittler.
St George-Illawarra will be without Lance Thompson, but we have
also taken $12,000 worth of bets for the Dragons to defeat the
Bulldogs outright at $2.80 and $2.70, and also two $5000 bets for
them to get within 5 points of the Bulldogs.
Another group of Sydney punters think that the Wests Tigers
will come back to earth with a thud this week when they line up
against Canberra in Sydney. Granted the Tigers look short at
$1.45, but they appear to have turned the corner whereas the
Raiders were very poor last week. The first bet for Canberra was
$5000 at $3, then followed $8000 at $2.80 and $5000 at $2.70, so
at the moment we are hoping that the Tigers juggernaut can
continue rolling along. Easter Monday's match has seen a $3000 bet
come for New Zealand at $2.40 to beat Newcastle, but the handful
of Kiwi punters that have placed their bets early in the week have
gone the other way, preferring to take the -3½ Newcastle.
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RUGBY UNION
All five favourites won in Super 12 last
weekend, with only the Hurricanes and the Blues failing to cover
the spread.
Prior to last weeks round beginning, a Victorian punter placed
$40,000 on the Crusaders (who had a bye), to win the title at
$3.25.
In a scrappy match which got the weekend under way, the
Hurricanes only scored three points in the second half to beat the
Cats 30-21. The late money was for the Cats with 19 points start,
and a New Zealander also won $14,000 from a $4000 bet that the
Hurricanes winning margin would be less than 13.
There was also plenty of money for the Bulls at -18 against the
Highlanders. Surprisingly, the two largest bets, one of $10,000,
the other for $6600, both came for Australian punters. The Bulls
couldn’t find the form they showed against the Brumbies the
previous week, going down 54-17.
Another side who were receiving the start that carried plenty
of support were the Sharks (+21), who were eventually thrashed
42-8 by the Waratahs. This time the biggest bet, $20,000 came from
an English punter who took the start for the Sharks.
In the last match, both the Stormers and the Brumbies drew
support, but not as much as we thought in what was the quietest
game of the round. We would have been happy to risk the Brumbies,
but our bigger punters stayed away.
Only four games are listed for this round, with title
favourites the Brumbies going to Christchurch to take on the
Crusaders on Sunday. The winner of this match will claim outright
title favourtism, but it looks as though the Brumbies might be
going in without George Gregan and Jeremy Paul. That is a double
blow to the Brumbies, enough to price them up as outsiders at
$2.25. Those who respect value have taken that, including a
Queensland punter who has taken the odds with an $8000 bet, but if
it’s confirmed those two players are out, you can expect a
bigger quote than $2.25.
The Blues were pretty lacklustre against the Chiefs, and the
Waratahs are undefeated, but we have posted the Blues slight
favourites at $1.70. A loss for the Blues would nearly end their
title hopes, and the Waratahs have one of the best defenses in the
competition, but the past few seasons they have faltered after a
good start to the season. The Waratahs good form has seen bets of
$5000 (twice) come for a win at $2.10, and also a $5500 bet
receiving 2 points start.
The jury is still out on how good or bad the Hurricanes and the
Reds are, so a few questions will be answered when they play on
Saturday night. The Hurricanes really need Tana Umaga to fire if
they are to win, and the Reds have had a week off since going down
narrowly to the Crusaders. We rate the Reds a $1.70 chance, and
although early betting on this one has been quiet, we have taken
two bets of $2000 for the Hurricanes at $2.10.
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BASKETBALL
The Victorian Titans sent a B grade squad out
against Brisbane last weekend and were soundly beaten 124-109 but
they were back to the A Team in beating the Tigers in their first
play-off game on Wednesday night. Last week we pointed out that
the Titans had little to play for in this match, and suggested
Brisbane were likely to win. We went right to the wire with this
game, with the Titans firming from $1.60 into $1.45. A Melbourne
punter placed a total of $28,500 in three bets on the Titans, and
we also took two separate bets of $10,000, both from Sydney, for
the Titans at -5½ points.
He wouldn't have been a happy camper when Titan's coach Brian
Goorjian showed up with an eight man roster and left four of his
big names sitting with their feet up. Two favourites that had to
win, but didn’t, were Melbourne and West Sydney.
Wollongong returned from a losing streak of seven matches to
beat Melbourne 111-93, with Andrew Gaze looking severely underdone
in his return for the Tigers. The naming of Gaze in the squad saw
bets of $14,000 and $4500 come for a Tigers win at $1.70. The
other shock on Saturday night, Canberra’s 102-95 drilling of
West Sydney, cost the Razorbacks the all important second spot on
the ladder.
Tonight, Wollongong are -3 favourites to beat Adelaide in game
one. Our NBL analyst says that the ‘gong will win tonight and
wrap the series up on Saturday night!
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MOTORBIKES
Unfortunately the Superbikes don't have anywhere
near the profile in this country as any other form of motorsport,
and that probably isn’t bad news for Centrebet when Aussie Troy
Bayliss won both races at Philip Island on Sunday to be undefeated
after two rounds this season.
Bayliss was $1.55 to win both races before qualifying, but
fortunately punters didn’t find those odds attractive. The only
bets of not taken were $1500 for Colin Edwards ($5) and $1000 for
Noriyuki Haga at $6 to win both races. Bayliss won the first race
convincingly, and then went into the second race at $1.25, again
winning easily. Bayliss is now into $1.33 to win the Championship.
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FORMULA ONE
The unpredictable Juan Pablo Montoya is the big
firmer in this week's Brazilian Grand Prix. After opening at $4,
Montoya is now $3.25, and has been backed to take out close to
$20,000. Michael Schumacher has eased from $1.80 to $2.20, and we
have only taken a few hundred dollars at that quote. Brother Ralf
($4.50) and Rubens Barrichello have each been backed to win
$15,000, with Barrichello also drawing a podium finish bet of
$4000 at $2.25.
Betting on whether drivers finish or not is growing in
popularity with most punters preferring to bet on drivers failing
to finish. Bets of $5000 have gone on Jenson Button ($2.25)
failing to finish, the same bet for Mika Salo failing at $2.30,
and $4000 for Giancarlo Fisichella also failing at $1.95. One the
other side of the ledger Finnish clients have invested close to
$15,000 for both Kimi Raikkonen ($1.40) and Takuma Sato ($1.80) to
complete the course.
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GOLF
Another golf tournament, another winner at
bolters odds. Craig Perks showed nerves of steel to win the
Players Championship, and a quick look through our records
revealed Perks was the longest priced winner we have ever had. The
struggling Kiwi was $301 prior to round one, and only one loyal
fan predicted an upset with a $5 wager. The only other bet we took
for Perks was $300 at $5 prior to the last round, and he gave us
our best result in a tournament this year.
Some massive money was wagered on our head to head options, and
in the wash up there was very little in it at the finish. Nick
Price landed a winning bet of $2000 at $8 to top a group of South
Africans, showing his first glimpse of form for ages.
This week, David Duval is the $15 favourite to win the Houston
Open. Punters seem to be tired of upset winners on the PGA tour as
this event has been very quiet, with only Scott Hoch ($21)
attracting any decent support of those in the betting. Robert
Allenby ($31) might be worth an each way ticket after a solid
performance last week, and did win this event in 2000.
On the LPGA circuit, Anika Sorenstam is $2.75 favourite to win
the Nabisco Championship. Sorenstam won last year, with arch rival
Karrie Webb finishing second. We have priced Webb at $3.25, and
the Queenslander did win this event in 2000 by 10 shots.
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CRICKET
The appointment of Ricky Ponting as Aussie One
Day captain has been treated with caution by punters. His new look
side won the first two One Day matches against South Africa last
weekend. And we recorded good wins on both matches. Even our
Indian punters, who have had a continuous love affair with the
Australian cricket side, have adopted a wait and see attitude with
the new side. Amazingly, the biggest pre-match bets on those
matches were each of $12,000, both for South Africa, and both from
an Australian punter!
Last nights (Wed) match saw the money evenly distributed
between South Africa ($2.10) and the Aussies at $1.70. Although
Australia lead the series 2-0, we continue to see money for South
Africa from Australians, but at least this time one of our Indian
punters joined in with a $15,000 wager on Australia at $1.70. The
game ended in a dead heat -- the 11th in history and 7th involving
Australia with Queenslander Jimmy Maher only able to squeeze a
single off the last ball.
Betting is up on Saturday's fourth match, with South Africa at
$2.10 and the Aussies at $1.70.
Domestically, Queensland won their third successive Pura Cup
(formerly Sheffield Shield) when they scored an outright victory
over Tasmania. With a host of their stars in South Africa, we were
desperate to lay the Bulls, even pushing their price out to $1.50,
but were lucky enough to only attract a handful of bets with the
largest of those being $2000. The Bulls were favourites from the
time betting opened, and thoroughly deserved the win as over
recent weeks their side was the most severely affected by the tour
of South Africa by the national team.
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ACADEMY AWARDS
It was an extremely busy 48 hours leading up to
the Academy Awards being handed out, and if anybody was following
the price fluctuations of Centrebet, they should have filled up
with money. Of the six categories we bet on, five of those were
won by nominees who were big firmers in the betting.
The whole process became embroiled in controversy surrounding
Russell Crowe, and the suggestion that Crowe’s chances
diminished after his blow up at the BAFTA Awards in Britain meant
that our overseas punters began to bet against Crowe. Eventual
winner Denzel Washington firmed from $3 into $2.50, with Will
Smith also popular at $7. Aussie punters thought Crowe couldn’t
be beaten, and having won the major lead up awards that was hard
to argue against, and we took bets of $8000, $7500 and $6500 for
him at $1.40.
Aussie punters also stuck solid with Nicole Kidman, and she was
easily our worst result had she have won. We hadn’t seen any
interest in Halle Berry until the rumour surfaced that it was
going to be “Black Oscars”, so we went with the mail and
shortened Berry into $2.75.
Best Supporting Actress Oscar winner Jennifer Connelly also had
the honour of having the two largest bets placed on her. A few
weeks ago a Canadian client placed $20,000 on Connelly at $1.25,
and we also took another $20,000 bet from Canada on the day of the
presentations at $1.15.
Ron Howard (Best Director) and A Beautiful Mind (Best Picture)
both had their odds slashed by half in the 24 hours leading up to
the presentations, but we found that there was still plenty of
punters prepared to bet against both. The only category that
hardly anybody cared about was the Best Supporting Actor, won by
second pick Jim Broadbent.
The end result was a pretty handy win for Centrebet, but trying
to keep up with all the Politics surrounding these awards really
has become a nightmare.
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SOCCER
Favourites fared very poorly in England last
weekend when only two of the eight won in the premier league.
Ipswich were the biggest go of the round, firming from $2.55
into $2.10. We had already loaded up on Ipswich, and then some of
our Asian clients wanted to be on, and in amongst the bets taken
was $16,000 at $2.35 and $15,000 at $2.20. It’s rare for a
scoreless draw to occur in England, but that was the final score.
Middlesbrough's 1-0 win over Man United was not the result most
punters were looking for. Man United ($1.20) were seen as an
obvious banker, and there weren’t too many premier league
multiple bets alive after they went over. On top of that, a
Norwegian client saw this as an opportunity to marginally increase
his balance by placing 150,000 NOK ($AUD 30,000) for United to win
outright, and it only goes to show there is no such thing as a
certainty.
Man United face a tricky assignment against Leeds on Saturday
in a big weekend of football. All English leagues have full
fixtures on Saturday and Monday, and we have noticed that while
United carry their normal avalanche of support at $2.25, a couple
of astute English punters have taken the $3.30 for a draw in this
match.
We have also seen money for a draw in the Southampton v Fulham
match with bets of $6000 and $4000 going on that option as soon as
betting opened at $3.25.
Bolton ($2.35) are one favourite that have been easy to sell in
their match against Aston Villa, along with Middlesbrough, who are
$2.15 to beat Tottenham. Both sides were upset winners last week,
and on previous form don’t represent any value this week. We
also have found down through the years that double fixtures always
yield odd results, so favourite punters beware!
* Just a reminder that by law Centrebet must close on Good
Friday, but we will be back on-line from 7am CST on Saturday
morning.
Until next week, good punting For further information contact
Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com
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