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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Only two weeks into the new season, and we have our first controversy! It would seem some quarters have been calling for an inquiry into the betting moves on the Brisbane v Geelong Wizard Cup game, but why would they bother? Every year we say that these games are dangerous to bet on as the make-up of the sides is never known, and wild fluctuations are something that we have become accustomed to. Some win, and some lose, as evidenced by what transpired the previous week-six big firmers, two of which won, so it was round one to the bookies, yet that never raised a mention. In fact, just a few hours prior to the Brisbane game, a solid plunge on Melbourne went astray when they were defeated by the Kangaroos, so it all averages out. But back to the Brisbane game. The bookies got it wrong! $2.55 was available on Friday for a Geelong win, and with the Cairns ground already waterlogged, and more on the way, that seemed a fairly respectable price. Then the papers come out on Saturday morning, and Brisbane's coach Lee Matthews says that he is resting several big names, and that he thinks the travel required is too much for his side. As these are in effect 'trial' games, that is his prerogative, but you wouldn't need to have a university degree to work out what punters were going to do next. We accepted a bet of $10,000 from a Perth punter at $2.20, mainly because there were much better quotes available elsewhere, but that soon quickly disappeared. We were fortunate in so much that we chased Brisbane out, getting bets of $6000 and $5500 at $1.90 before they eventually started at $2.10. Centrebet only recorded a very small loss on the game, and with an ounce of luck, the result could have gone the other way in what turned out to be an exciting game. The two semis this week will see two short priced favourites, and early indications are that punters will be prepared to take the short odds. Adelaide are at home to the Kangaroos, and we have already taken $7000 worth of bets for the Crows to win at $1.28. Collingwood have looked extremely impressive in their two wins, and are at a similar quote against Geelong, who did have the task of playing up north in very heavy conditions. There has to be a grave doubt about how that will affect the Cats' performance this week, and that is probably why all the early betting has been for Collingwood. Whilst each year, the form displayed in the pre-season Cup and trial matches can be very misleading, but that hasn't stopped many from backing sides who win their matches. This week we have taken another $300 in small bets for Carlton to win the flag at $41, $400 for St Kilda at $41, and $1500 for Collingwood at $8, all based on last weekends performances. A $5000 wager has come for Melbourne to make the final eight at $2, while Sydney are now into $9 to 'win' the wooden spoon. RUGBY LEAGUE League is in the news again this week with the sacking of South Sydney coach Craig Coleman. One has got to wonder where the game is headed when a coach can get sacked for his side losing pre-season trial matches. The argument put up was that the Rabbitoh's had conceded too many points in those trials, but when you consider that most of the new Souths signings are attacking players, what else did they expect? Anyway, the headlines, and the trial matches have seen a good spread of money coming in, and with the season kick-off only a week away, we can expect things to really heat up next week. Betting on the first round will be available Tuesday, but in the interim, final eight betting is where most of the action is. A Sydney punter has placed $25,000 on Newcastle at $1.35, $10,000 has been placed on the Roosters at $1.18, and a wager of $6000 has come across the Tasman for the NZ Warriors to make the finals at $1.50. The Bulldogs remain premiership fav's at $4, a price which this week was taken by a Queenslander with a bet of $4000, while Brisbane have been backed to take out over $30,000 in the past week. Cronulla are solid in the betting at $12, but one side that we haven't really struck a blow with is the Warriors. We predict that they will really struggle this year without Ali Lautiiti, and have chased them out to $15, but punters must be thinking along similar lines. RUGBY UNION The second week of Super 12 Rugby provided two more upsets with the Bulls pulling off a 46-34 victory over the Hurricanes in Wellington, and the Sharks surviving a second half comeback from an error ridden Brumbies 25-17 in Durban. Betting was not as brisk last week, which was compounded by most favourites being long odds on. The two games where punters found value were Cats and Waratahs, with one client from Sydney placing $17,000 on the Cats at $2.75, and Sharks and Brumbies, with the Brumbies $1.45 into $1.42, and well supported at -7 points. This week we see a round where, with the exception of the inform Highlanders at $1.14 taking on the Bulls at Carisbrook, games that are an even contest. The Hurricanes, $1.80 take on the Stormers in Wellington, and although one client from South Africa has placed $5000 on the Stormers at $2, we expect the Hurricanes, with the return of Lomu, to record their first victory of the season. The Cats take on the Brumbies at Ellis Park, and already the Brumbies have been the median of heavy support with two separate wagers of $10,000 at $1.60, and have now firmed into $1.58. The game of the round sees a top of the table clash between the Blues and Crusaders with the Blues favourite at $1.85 and one wager of $5000 which suggest they will be hard to beat. The Sharks take on the Waratahs in Durban with the betting at $1.90 your pick, and little action on this game, while the Chiefs at home against a Reds unit likely to be without Chris Latham, at $1.45. Money for the Chiefs here, $1.60 into $1.45 and one wager of $10,000 at -4½ to suggest they’ll cover. Whatever the results, there are sure to be some upsets. The Blues, already a bad result to win the title, are now even worse after a Kiwi punter placed $20,000 on them last week at $3.50. GOLF Tiger has done it again! The Accenture Match Play Championship now completes the list of ‘major’ golf events on the PGA Tour and WGC calendar. Even though the much awaited match-up with Ernie Els did not eventuate, the semi final against young Australian, Adam Scott, and subsequent final against a steady David Toms, were worthy of this high profile event. After cruising through three matches, Woods met still opposition in Scott who took him to the 19th hole, before missing a sharp breaking three footer. But perhaps the match should have finished earlier in Scotts’ favour, who was two up after eight holes but could not manage to sink the crucial putts when it counted. The $4.50 on offer Woods to win this event appeared a luxury as seeds such as Els and Mickelson dropped away with each round, Woods starting a $1.30 chance in the final in which he was well supported and finally prevailing two and one over Toms. The Chrysler Classic at Tucson was taken out by Frank Lickliter, his second PGA Tour victory, the first being the 2001 Kemper Insurance Open. With only two top ten finishes last season, Lickliter had been a disappointment since finishing top 30 in ’01 and although his opening quote of $51 should have had appeal in a field lacking depth, punters shied away from him. After two rounds of inspired golf Lickliter held a six shot lead and had firmed into $1.70 favourite, but still punters could not get enthused. He was still good value at $1.50 coming into the final round with a four shot lead. One bet of $4000 and another 5000 NOK, indicated that punters were more comfortable with his position as he managed to hold off a fast finishing Chad Campbell and Brendan Pappas. Well backed Tim Herron, Aaron Baddeley and Stewart Cink, while thereabouts, failed to take their opportunity in the final round. This week on tour is the Ford Championship at Doral and with Ernie Els committing himself to Dubai, Tiger Woods taking a week off and the late withdrawal of Mickelson and Singh, the event has lost four major drawcards. This has not stopped punters getting involved however, with Nick Price ($600 each way at $26) and Angel Cabrera ($400 each way at $67) best backed to beat Mike Weir, $12 favourite, and Davis Love $13. Also in the betting are David Toms $15, runner-up in last weeks Accenture World Match Play, and Jim Furyk $17, but all these players have been neglected by punters. Also last week was the Jacobs Creek Classic at Kooyonga Golf Club in South Australia, a co-sanctioned event between the Australasian PGA and Nationwide Tour. The American players in general were ignored by punters, with O’Malley, Moseley and Stolz best backed. And while they all figured prominately on the leader board, none were able to make inroads on Joe Ogilvie, who held on for a one shot victory over Shane Tait and another two shots back to evergreen Peter Senior and American David Morland. This week is a similar event, the Clearwater Classic in New Zealand and punters again have ignored the chances of players from the Nationwide Tour with Nick O’Hern ($400 each way at $15), Nathan Green ($300 each way at $34), Michael Long ($250 each way a t $67) and South African, Andrew McLardy ($400 each way at $34) all well backed. Centrebet would be well pleased again if Joe Ogilvie, $21 or one of his compatriots can repeat the dose. The second European Ladies Tour event for the year was held at Terrey Hills Golf Club in Sydney where fellow Australians, Karrie Webb ($2000 at $3) and Rachel Teske ($500 each way at $18) were well backed to prevent Laura Davies from winning back to back. Davies however was intent to spoil the party and at the half way mark held a one shot lead from rookie Rebecca Coakley with a further two shots back to Webb, Bauer and Ochoa. The $2.65 on offer Davies held great appeal, and with bets of $2000 and 4000 DKK she commenced the third round a poor result for Centrebet. Her positioned strengthened into the final round where, at 10 under they shared the lead with compatriot Suzanne Stradwick, four shots clear of six players including Webb and Teske. The final round saw a surprise result for Centrebet, with Mhairi McKay shooting a five under 67, snatching her maiden Tour victory from an erratic Davies with a further two shots to Teske. After Davies commenced with birdies on her first two holes, McKay managed to effect golfings equivalent of grand larceny as Davies struggled for consistency. There is no doubt there are a lot of talented female golfers on tour, and once you take Sorenstam out of the mix, then anyone has the potential to win. CRICKET This will be one World Cup that nobody will ever forget, irrespective of who wins it. It's had everything, and there are some sides who haven't made the Super Six stage that can feel a little bit violated. It's seems very strange that in most of the one day competitons around the world, there is always a provision for a 'reserve' day, yet the World Cup had none. The West Indies were worst served as a result of that, and that definately needs looking at. Looking ahead to the semis, it seems very odd that the first semi is a day match, yet the second semi is a day/nighter, only 2 days prior to the final. If it was necessary to play a day/night match, shouldn't it be the other way around as those sides are definately penalised? And anyway, why are there any day/night matches at all? The other anomaly is that there are two day/night matches during the Super Sixes, and Kenya play in both. That seems very unfair, and is another problem that the draw has produced with the team finishing second in Pool B having to play in both of those matches. Australia face Sri Lanka in the first Super Six match at Centurion Park on Friday. Not surprisingly, the Aussies are a short $1.33, and our Indian friends have been all over that, including bets of $USD 25,000, and $20,000. It seems short enough to our cricket experts, and we have noted that plenty of Australian clients have been keen on Sri Lanka at $3.20. There have been a number of upsets at this Cup, which is why we haven't had any trouble laying outsiders in most matches. Later the same day, India are $1.03 to beat Kenya, and while that will probably happen, we have seen the Kenyan's become a really popular side with our smaller punters, similar to what Senegal were in the World Cup of soccer. The $14 for a win by Kenya has attracted a bet of $1000, as well as a host of bets around the $50 mark. On Saturday, New Zealand will also be very short against Zimbabwe at $1.22. As soon as we posted that price, a bet of $25,000 came from New Zealand, and they continue to be popular, especially in multiple bets. We also took a bet of $10,000 for the Kiwi's to win the Cup at $8, the same person who had $10,000 at $9 last week. Australia are still the fav's at $1.65, but it doesn't represent very good value if they have to bat second in the second semi in Durban. While it's hard to put up a decent case as to why either Zimbabwe or Kenya could win the final, we are seeing money for both at $67 and $81 respectively. Just on Kenya, we can probably count ourselves very lucky that there wasn't a definate resolution to whether or not matches would be played. We had Kenya at 500/1 to with that pool, and while they didn't (they finished second to Sri Lanka), we invariably lay those type of outsiders, so we would have had a very nervous week. It just goes to prove what can happen. Locally, the last round of Pura Cup matches begin today (Thurs), and all eyes will be on Victoria and New South Wales. Both need a victory to see who will play Queensland in the final, but should both collect the same amount of points, NSW go through by virtue of more outright victories. NSW ($1.70) have had bets of $4500 and $2500 placed on them to take the points against the Queenslanders, while a bet of $3000 has been placed on Victoria at $1.65 to roll Western Australia. Queensland are $1.50 to win the Cup, ahead of NSW at $3.50 and the Vics at $5. BASKETBALL The play-offs have eventually arrived. Usual suspects in Perth, Adelaide and Melbourne are there again and are joined by Wollongong, who are approaching perennial finalist status, and Townsville who return to post season action after missing out last year. The odd team out in terms of recent final experience is the Sydney Kings who have had only one finals campaign in the last six seasons, and that led to a quick first round exit. Whilst the club lacks recent finals experience one man who is familiar with playoff basketball is coach Brian Goorjian. This is the fourteenth consecutive season that Goorjian coached teams have progressed to at least the semi final stage. Last season we saw both the two top ranked teams lose their elimination final series. It meant an early exit for Perth, whilst the Titans survived under the highest ranked loser system. The two top seeds this season, Sydney and Perth, are entering the finals injury free and in excellent form and are favoured to end the seasons of Melbourne and Adelaide respectively. Adelaide have lost three games straight leading into the finals and both Adelaide and Melbourne have injury concerns. Townsville and Wollongong square off in the other elimination final which in fact won't be an elimination final if both Sydney and Perth win. Rivalry has been intense between these sides since they did battle for the 2000/01 NBL Championship which Wollongong won in the deciding Game 3 at Townsville. Townsville again have the home court advantage but before that comes into effect they travel to Wollongong with the NBL record of most consecutive wins just one win away. Wollongong had two confidence building wins over Canberra to end the season but it remains to be seen if they duplicate those efforts against a quality opponent. YACHTING The America's Cup is making it's way to Europe for the first time following Swiss yacht Alinghi's clean sweep of the series against Team New Zealand. If Russell Coutts and his team had any blood in their veins they would come back and defend in New Zealand. How can they possibly improve on a 5-nil victory? It was a very strange event to bet on in so much that although Alinghi won each race, it wasn't until the fifth race that they were favourites, and that was the first time we lost on a race. Several punters who had stuck with Team NZ did an about face on the last race, and the two largest bets we took were $8000 and $6000 on Alinghi at $1.45. Overall it was a very successful campaign for Centrebet, but there were a few noteable winners around, particularly on guy from England who backed Alinghi to win $30,000 at $4 during the Louis Vuitton Cup. One punter that did take a battering was a New Zealander who outlayed in excess of $60,000 in multiples, all starting with their yacht to win the Cup. He coupled up Team NZ with NZ to win the cricket World Cup, the Auckland Blues to win the Super 12, and the All Blacks to win the rugby World Cup. Only problem is that he didn't couple all the others up, so all his bets have ended up in the bottom of Auckland Harbour. ENTERTAINMENT This year's betting on the Academy Awards looks like breaking all records, and there is still three weeks to go before the Oscars are handed out! Nicole Kidman shortens each day to get the Best Actress Award, and is now into 'red hot' favourite at $1.35. Punters are really warming to Nicole on top of the two awards she has already won, a terrific form line. Second elect, Julieanne Moore is out to $3.25, and that was after a Norwegian client had earlier placed 8000 NOK ($AUD 1800) at $3. This category is looked upon as a 'two woman race', with little interest in the other three nominees. The 'Best Director' award saw some heavy action this week when Robert Marshall came in from $4 to outright favourtism at $1.55 for his directorship of 'Chicago'. The $4 was on offer before he won the Directors Guild of America award for the same category, and with 48 of the previous 53 Oscars going to the winner of this event, the short price seems justified. One of our Finnish clients outlayed €12,000, backing Marshall from $2 into the $1.55. While all that was going on, two Norwegians took the $2 for 'ex' favourite Martin Scorcese to the tune of 24,000 NOK, so we have a good betting contest on our hands. A South Australian had already placed $1000 on Roman Polanski at $8, and now he has 'blown' out to $13. Of the other categories, there has been a trend against Catherine Zeta Jones winning the Best Supporting Actress award, possibly due to some of the antics both she and husband Michael Douglas have been up to recently. We originally had Zeta Jones the favourite at $2, but she has been displaced by Meryl Streep. While it shouldn't matter what happens away from the big screen, it is worth pointing out that everything pointed to Russell Crowe winning last year until he put on a 'performance' in England, so we aren't discounting any possibilities any more. FOOTBALL Two Bundesliga clubs parted company with their long-serving coaches this week and, once again, Centrebet's odds on its exclusive ‘Next Coach Replaced’ market forecast what would happen before it did. Mönchengladbach boss Hans Meyer justified Centrebet's even-money favouritism little more than a few hours after his relegation-threatened team drew 2-2 against Schalke in front of their bloodthirsty supporters. Centrebet's second favourite for the chop, aptly named Wolfsburg manager Wolfgang Wolf, quit the Volkswagen-backed club on Tuesday after losing control of the ambitious outfit's dressing room. Thankfully, Bundesliga punters backed Hannover manager Ralf Rangnick to be the next German top-flight coach shown the door. Centrebet took bets on him at $7 because its football compilers thought that the 96ers would avoid defeat away to a steadily deteriorating Bochum side on Saturday. Hannover exceeded expectations, winning 2-1 and securing Rangnick's position, for the time being at least. We experienced mixed fortunes on Sunday's English Worthington Cup final. Victory for Liverpool wiped out several big bets on United, both to win the tournament and defeat their Lancashire rivals in normal time at Cardiff's Millennium Stadium, but we could have done with either side scoring one more goal. Even the briefest inspection of our books on matches involving Liverpool, especially those in which Gerard Houllier's team are playing away from Anfield, tells you that hundreds of punters are employing the same betting strategy. Quite simply, there is always huge demand for the ‘under’ 2½ Goals option in such games and Sunday's title decider was no exception. One shrewd punter invested USD13,000 at $1.90. Looking ahead, there is significant early support for Arsenal in their English FA Cup quarter-final tie versus Chelsea at Highbury and we are already taking bets on the first Danish Superligaen round following that competition's winter break. FC København are title favourites at $1.20. MOTOR RACING The Formula One season begins in Melbourne this week, and while the manufacturers and drivers might not be too happy with the many rule changes, it certainly has livened up the betting. Normally we would see a high volume of betting on the race winner and podium placings, but not a lot of interest in things like 'pole position', 'quickest lap' etc. The rule changes have made things very interesting, so much so that there have been several drivers backed to draw pole position, something we would not have seen prior to the rule changes. Michael Schumacher is $2.50 in that option, but we have taken nearly $1500 for Rubens Barrichello at $5.50, $1000 for both David Coulthard ($8) and Kimi Raikkonen ($10), as well as a host of bets for Jarno Trulli ($28), Giancarlo Fisichella at the same odds, and Fernando Alonso at $34. This indicates that many people thing the 'lesser lights' of the sport will be going into the qualifying round on empty tanks to try and get a good spot on the grid, not a bad ploy around the tight Albert Park circuit. As for winning the race, the big money is on Schumacher at $1.60, but from our point of view he is worth a risk. The largest bet so far has been €6000 from Austria, but there has been a very even spread amongst most of the others. We have had to cut Mark Webber's price from $201 into $151 as he has been backed to take out close to $75,000 at this stage, and while we don't think he has the engine power to greet the chequered flag in first place, it seems as though parochial Aussies are going to continue to back him. We have taken several large wagers on 'podium placings', with the biggest of those being €7000 for Barrichello at $1.55, closely followed be $8000 for Michael Schumacher at $1.20. Last season those two bets would have appeared like 'giving' money away, but that may not be the case this time. For a bit of fun, we are also covering the Celebrity Grand Prix. We have divided the field up into 'best male' and 'best female' finish, and it has proven a major talking point amongst the media. We all witnessed how Stephen Bradbury won his gold medal at the Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, and it is quite feasable that the winner of this race will be decided the same way! Our 'spies' say that Bradbury has easily been the quickest driver this week, but he, of all people, would be aware that the fastest doesn’t always win. Noted trumpeter James Morrison is second pick at $5, while there has been a lot of interest in the 'public' entrant, Paul Brown ($7), himself a Mini enthusiast. Netballer and media personality Liz Ellis is $2 to be the first female home, but most of the bets, naturally form Aussie males, have been for Megan Gale at $3. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com
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