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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES No outcries from anybody over last weekend's Wizard Cup semi finals even though both favourites were heavily backed and went straight to the wire. It wasn't clear cut in the first quarter of the Collingwood v Geelong game with Collingwood looking anything but winners after firming from $1.45 into $1.40, including the biggest single bet of $8000. We also took several doubles for Collingwood and Adelaide to win, with the largest of those being $11,000 at $1.90. The benefits of the new 'super goal', (a nine-pointer) were displayed when Collingwood put through five 'bombs' to eventually win by 37 points. That meant that there was a lot of money riding on Adelaide, and the Crows put up a solid defensive performance against a slight breeze in the last quarter to win narrowly by four points. Their wins have set up an interesting final to be played in Melbourne this week although there's been plenty of debate about whether the game should have been in Adelaide. That in itself should ensure that the Crows come out on Saturday night all 'fired up' to play. Collingwood are the favourites at $1.45, and while we have taken a $4000 bet at that quote, most of the activity has been centred on Adelaide at $2.70, and also with 14½ points start. We have opened up a few 'end of season' markets that have created some talk around the country. Punters can bet on which players will take the most marks for the season, most disposals, and head to heads for both of these options. St Kilda's 'boom' youngster Nick Riewoldt and Port Power's Warren Tredrea are our $7 co-favourites to take the most 'grabs' for the season, but the early betting has been for Matthew Lloyd ($9) and Luke Darcy ($11). Fremantle's Peter Bell is the $8 fav to accrue the most disposals for season 2003, but as yet we can't find a taker at that quote. We have seen backing for Ben Cousins ($11), Joe Misiti ($21) and Josh Francou at $26, but we expect Adelaide's Andrew McLeod ($15) to be our worst result when the season gets under way. In Premiership betting action we've cut Collingwood's price to $7 following their good Wizard Cup form, and also weight of money. Both Collingwood and Adelaide ($6.25) have been easily the best backed sides over the past two weeks, but as we have mentioned before, it can be very dangerous to put too much emphasis on the pre-season form. ENTERTAINMENT The Screen Actors Guild Awards have been handed out, and that has required some major re-shuffling to the markets, but one thing that hasn't changed is Nicole Kidman's continued popularity to win the 'Best actress' Oscar. Nicole was a 'raging' $1.35 chance to win this category prior to Renee Zellweger's upset win at the SAG awards. We slashed Renee's price from $7 to $2.30 following that result but we haven't really been deluged with support, so perhaps punters agree with our assessment that the SAG award was an upset. Kidman has eased to $1.65, and that has been taken by close to $2000 in bets, so it would seem as though she will shorten up again. Daniel Day-Lewis is into $1.28 to win the Best Actor category after winning the SAG equivalent. Original favourite, Jack Nicholson has drifted to $3.50, a price that was taken by a German client with $1000 late this week. The other big shock to come out of these awards was the win by Catherine Zeta-Jones in the Best Supporting Actress category. Last week we made mention of the fact that punters had 'shunned' the Welsh born beauty since here appearance in court, and that was a good thing for us as she is now $1.50 to win an Oscar. Meryl Streep ($3.25) and Julianne Moore ($4) have ensured that this is a good betting contest as opinions are divided as to whether or not Zeta-Jones' off screen antics will affect her winning chances. POLITICS The New South Wales election is fast approaching, and we predict that Saturday week's polls will reveal a landslide victory to the Bob Carr led Labor Party. The Labor Party have had a stranglehold on all State and Territory elections for over two years now, and from what we have seen written, and said, over the past few weeks, this one will be no different. Anybody who thinks that they can cash in on Bob Carr being re-elected to the helm will have to be prepared to take very 'skinny' odds, as we have priced him up at $1.02. While that is way too short for the 'rank and file' punter, from experience we know that several of pure election punters will not be afraid to put down a big amount for a small return. Betting has been opened for two days, and we have already taken one $10,000 bet (from NSW), to win $200. The John Brogden led Coalition have attracted many bets at $10, and that again is normal as of course they do have a high percentage of support in NSW, but realistically Bob Carr would have to make a serious 'slip up' if he was to be beaten. HARNESS RACING With lingering doubts as to whether or not second favourite Scarlet Knight will be racing in the Elitloppet at the end of May, we have taken the precautionary step of suspending betting on the event until a decision is made on a start. Scarlet Knight was originally favourite at $4.50 for several weeks without any takers. Victory Tilly, who has for so long been in the shadow of Italian champion Varenne, is our new $3 favourite and has attracted two seperate bets of $1000 when $3.50. The next two in the betting, HP Paque ($8) and Gigant Neo ($12), have each been backed to take out in excess of $30,000 over the past three weeks, so it looks as though Scarlet Knight will be an absentee from the big race. Closer to home, the Inter Dominion has been rocked by the withdrawal of heavily backed second choice Jack Cade. The Kiwi pacer resumed from a two year break due to injury to trounce his opposition in three of four starts, and trainer Mark Purdon rated him the equal of, if not better than, reigning favourite Young Rufus. Jack Cade was the first horse backed in our Inter Dominion market when betting opened at $13. He was into $5.50 prior to his scratching, and that has seen a few changes to the top of betting. Young Rufus is in slightly to $2.40, with a bet of $4000 coming from New Zealand this week. The form of Double Identity tapered off recently, and he is now second pick at $9, but he hasn't really been supported to any degree. One pacer who did catch the eye recently was Mont Denver Gold, who raced without luck during the Hunter Cup Carnival. We have kept Mont Denver Gold 'safe' in the betting at $10, but the one big advantage that Young Rufus has over the others is that he will be racing on his 'home track' in Christchurch. BASKETBALL One thing the Sydney Kings will ever be accused of doing is being predictable! After travelling to Melbourne in game one of their finals series and coming away with an easy victory, they returned home to Sydney on Monday night only to go down to the Tigers by four points in what could only be described as a catastrophic turnaround. The Kings were near on unbackable at $1.15, and bets of $8000, $5500 and $3000 were also taken on them giving up 9½ points start. After appearing likely to win, they let the Tigers in to score 11 unanswered points to snatch victory. While their Australian supporters could only ponder about another lost opportunity, one client in far away Finland would also have been feeling some pain. He coupled up the Kings to win with India to beat Sri Lanka in the cricket with a bet of €10,000 ($AUD 20,000), probably thinking the only 'risky' leg would be the cricket! So it now goes down to game three to see if Sydney can win the series, therefore clearing an easy passage through to the semi-finals. Sydney are $1.22 to beat the Tigers, and we have already taken just under $9000 in bets to win the game, as well as two bets totaling $8000 for them to beat an eight point handicap. The Kings remain $2.20 to win the NBL title, and while they definately have the capabilities; let's not forget they are still the Sydney Kings! Last night, Wollongong won a thriller against Townsville, while Perth were beaten at home by Adelaide. It was a very bad night for punters as both home sides were solidly backed. CRICKET The memorable win by Australia over New Zealand on Tuesday gave a good indication of the uncertainty of cricket, and also highlighted how popular 'trading' throughout the matches is with punters. While a Federal law prohibits Australians from placing bets over the internet while a game is in progress, that didn't stop them from phoning Centrebet to place bets on a match that had several twists and turns. Australia went in as fav's at $1.36, with one big bet of $ USD 30,000 riding on Australia (from India) at that quote. Plenty of value seekers took the $3.15 for New Zealand, with the largest of those being a bet of $6000 from Sydney. Those who were on the Kiwis would have been entitled to begin thinking how they would spend the money when Australia were struggling at 7/86. It was at this stage that a New Zealander placed $30,000 on New Zealand at $1.22, but some were looking for a miracle and took the $4.50 Australia, although they weren't big amounts. As the Aussies gradually began rebuilding a decent score, we saw action for both sides, but New Zealand were always favourites. One bet that is worthy of a mention was one taken when Australia reached 125. NZ were $1.50, and a bet of €10,000 came through from Poland, possibly the last country that we thought we would take a cricket bet from! At the major break, both sides were 'layable', the Aussies at $2.10, and NZ at $1.72. With NZ being favourites for so long during the match, we found ourselves with the perfect book, both sides big winners! At least on this occassion, from a business point of view, we gained some satisfaction as the Australian bowlers ripped through New Zealand. The stage is set for a titanic struggle on Friday when India play New Zealand. It is a 'must win' game for NZ, and their forward showing against Australia has seen money for them, including bets of $8000 and $6600 at $1.90. India, or should we say Sachin Tendulka, have proven what they can do with the bat, and we have seen a bet of $ USD 5000 come from that region for India at $2. Courtesy of Kenya’s win last night, India are now into $2.65 to win the Cup. Finally on the World Cup, we all would have heard the incredible statistic of Glen McGraths conquests with the bat in World Cup matches. Before he came out to bat against New Zealand, McGrath had NEVER scored a run in nearly 30 World Cup matches, so why did a Sydney client place $10 on McGrath to be the Aussie high-bat at $1501? Maybe he is a neighbour, or a supremely optimistic relative! The Pura Cup has been robbed of a lot of prestige this season due to the World Cup, but the presence of Steve Waugh will no doubt take some of the focus of the Cup games as he not only tries to win the Pura Cup for NSW, but also continues to baffle his critics as the naming of the Windies tour side approaches. NSW have hammered Queensland twice recently, and although this is a five day match, it's pretty common knowledge that curators try and 'tailor make' pitches to last the five days. That is a good theory, but both these sides have the bowling capabilities to get through each other twice. QLD will win the Cup with either a win or a draw, so we put up NSW at $2. That was very quickly taken with bets of $6000 and $3500, bet we have also taken a bet of $3000 for QLD at $1.80 from a punter who backed NSW to win the Cup early in the season at $4. We are also offering betting including a 'draw', and in that betting we have NSW at $1.95. the draw is at $3, and the Bulls are at $3.50. GOLF For the second week in a row on the PGA tour the withdrawal of the tournaments main draw card has thrown betting into disarray. This week at the Honda Classic the withdrawal of Vijay Singh has seen Davis Love, already a winner on the tour this year, and the consistent Jim Furyk, installed as $12 joint favourites, ahead of Charles Howell 111 at $14 and Australian Robert Allenby at $26. Defending Champion, Matt Kuchar is quoted at $101, but he has several things against him in his quest for a second PGA title. Firstly the event has had it's fourth venue change in nine years as we move to The Country Club at Mirasol, a course favoured to suit players with accurate iron play as opposed to big hitters, and secondly his form this season has been disappointing to say the least, with a best finish a tie for 25th at the Mercedes Championship. Players with form on Bermuda greens include Brad Faxon, 2nd last year, John Huston and Mark Calcavecchia, a two time winner of this event. Punters once again this week have attempted to find value with Shaun Micheel, $200 each way at $126, Tim Clark, $200 each way at $101 and Skip Kendall 1000 NOK each way at $101 best backed. Last week saw Scott Hoch record his 1st victory on tour since the Advil Western Open in 2001, on the 3rd extra hole from Jim Furyk. These players had 7 and 9 Top 10 finishes last year respectively to be 2 of the most consistent players on Tour despite their veteran status. Hoch was unwanted in the betting and although he shared the lead into the last round with Bob Tway, the $3.75 on offer held little appeal. Jim Furyk on the other hand was well supported through betting with one bet of $500 at $10 after the 1st round going astray. Other players well supported such as Nick Price, Stephen Ames and Angel Cabrera failed to flatter. The European Tour produced another surprise result as Robert-Jan Derksen secured his maiden Tour win with a closing round 7 under 65, from Ernie Els. It is the second time this season Els appeared to have a tournament in his grasp leading for the majority of the 72 holes, but Derksens closing round snatched victory from Els's grasp, and the cash from punter's pockets. Els was well supported pre tournament at $3.25 and another 20,000 SEK at $1.90 after the first round only increased our liability. Other well supported players such as Darren Clarke and Thomas Bjorn were near the top of the leader board only to indicate that this was going to be a poor result for Centrebet. It's fair to say Derksen never entered punters' equations in seeking the winner - nor ours! This week the Qatar Masters sees Padraig Harrington installed as favourite at $5.50 from Ian Woosnam at $15 and Nick Dougherty, runner up last year behind Adam Scott, at $26. Scott has elected to play on the PGA Tour and will not defend his title. Punters again are looking for value with Jamie Donaldson, $300 each way at $61, Jarrod Moseley, $250 each way at $51 and Miguel-Angel Jiminez, $300 each way at $51 best backed along with Ian Woosnam to cause another upset. Other Tours last week saw Ryan Palmer claim victory in his rookie year in the co-sanctioned Clearwater Classic in New Zealand, and David Egar claim his maiden tour victory at the Champions Tour Mastercard Classic. Palmer finished strongly the previous week in the Jacobs Creek Classic so his victory was no shock to form followers of the Nationwide tour while Egar upset the likes of Irwin, Kite and the well supported Tom Jenkins. This week sees Irwin and Kite head the betting again with Gil Morgan €300 each way at $23 best backed. The LPGA Tour kicks off with the Welchs/Fry's Championship in Tucson with defending Champion Laura Diaz $23 taking on the might of Se Ri Pak and Karrie Webb at $6.50 and the in-form Laura Davies $16. Best backed to cause an upset is Rachel Teske, $400 each way at $34 and Meg Mallon $250 each way at $41. One thing is certain, whoever wins this event will need to be at their best as this is a crackerjack field. RUGBY UNION Last week in Super 12’s saw most favourites salute with the exception of the ACT Brumbies, who in fact were the best backed, with more than $50,000 placed at $1.60 to defeat the Cats at Ellis Park. Week 3 kicked off with the Hurricanes backed from $1.90 into $1.70 and proving too strong for the Stormers with a comprehensive 33-18 victory. This was followed by a 29-22 defeat of the Bulls by the Highlanders in Carisbrook. This proved to be a poor result as the Highlanders were the banker in most multiples while the Bulls were well supported at $1.90 and receiving 15½ points start. A 19-0 half-time lead was whittled away by a Bulls unit which showed a never give in approach and were solid around the ruck. The final game for the Friday saw the Cats come from behind and upset the Brumbies 34-32 and oust a lot of multiples in the process. The Brumbies missed Sterling Mortlock in the centres and with the boot as well while, Andre Pretorious was prodigious with his conversion rate. On the Saturday the Chiefs were too good for a disappointing Reds outfit in Rotorua, prevailing 43-27, while a well backed Waratahs were impressive in their second half demolition of the Sharks 49-36. Matt Rogers was the star for the 'Tahs’ for the second week in a row, and might secure the Wallabies fullback position ahead of an injury ridden Chris Latham. The match of the round proved to be a fizzer however, with the Blues dominating an error happy Crusader unit 39-5 at Eden Park. The Crusaders have their problems however with Mark Robinson out for the season, and Andrew Mehterns not available for another fortnight. The Blues now into a deserving quote of $2.10 to rest the Super 12 mantle from the Crusader at $2.90 with the Highlander and Waratahs the only 2 other sides given a legitimate chance. Week 4 of the Super 12’s finds the Crusaders home to the Chiefs, the Brumbies at home to the Stormers and the Waratahs at home to the Bulls all a short quote at around $1.14, while the erratic Sharks are 3½ point favourites over an equally erratic Hurricane side. These games have not produced too much interest from Super 12 followers, while the final game sees the Cats getting 5½ points start from the Highlanders at Ellis Park with early money for the Highlanders at $1.60. The 3rd round of Six Nations saw Ireland prevail 15-12 over a plucky France, with over £10,000 placed on France at 3½ points start while Scotland flew the boxes against a disappointing Wales, prevailing 30-22, and England were clinical in their disposal of Italy 40-5. The battle for the Six Nations Trophy appears to boil down to the March 30th clash between Ireland and England at Lansdowne Road, with the savory thought of 40,000 fanatical Irish fans urging their fired up team against a classy English unit. My mouth waters at the thought!! RUGBY LEAGUE Season 2003 gets under way on Friday night when defending premiers the Sydney Roosters front up to Parramatta, possibly the biggest disappointment of the new millenium. It was this time last year when punters were climbing over themselves to take $2.75 Parramatta to win the title after a shock loss the previous year to Newcastle. The expectations from the public don't seem to be so high this season, and with that pressure off, maybe it might be 'the year of the Eel'? At the odds ($7.50), we are going to give Parra another chance, and they can take the first step forward by beating the Roosters on Friday. In a spirited betting game, both sides have been backed, the Roosters at $1.57, and the Eels at $2.35. We have also taken two bets totaling $8500 from New Zealand for the Roosters conceding 4 points start. The first side laid for any substantial money when betting opened on Wednesday was St George Illawarra, who face a real danger game against The Tigers. Each season Wests start like world beaters, and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that a 'Trent Barrettless' Dragons could go down, all of the money came from Sydney, including win bets of $8000 and $4000 at $1.50, as well as nearly $25,000 conceding 5½ points start. Once again we rate the North QLD Cowboys a chance to win at home, but our opening price of $1.95 was taken with a $5000 bet, and that was followed by a bet of the same size at $1.90, so temporarily we find ourselves hoping for a Canberra win up in the tropics. The bad publicity that has followed South Sydney around over the past two weeks appears to have had an affect on punters this week. In the opening round last year, there was any amount of support for the Rabbitohs, and while they have to face up to premiership favourites The Bulldogs, at the time of writing, we had only managed to get $30 for Souths, and that was with 19 points start. Brisbane have been a side that have been beatable 'on the road' over the past two seasons, and we can see that happening at Penrith on Sunday. Penrith look a good side on paper (don’t they always?), but if they can find their best form, they definately have the pace to match it with the Bronco's. It has been a struggle to 'lay' Brisbane, which is surprising, but we did find one early shopper from Sydney who took the -7½ with a bet of $11,000. Newcastle travel to Auckland on Sunday as well, and in a bizarre betting game, we can’t find many takers for either side. We mentioned last week that there was no money at all for the Warriors to win the title, and that has been mirrored on Sundays match. Newcastle are so dependant on Andrew Johns that maybe punters would to see how the little champ is after recent injuries, so it looks like what we thought would be a good betting game is going to be a 'fizzer'. Whatever happens, we predict an upset or two as usual, and maybe one of those may be Penrith - we hope! MOTOR RACING After two laps of the Australian Grand Prix, it looked for certain that we were going to be in for another boring year of F1 as Ferrari pair Michael Schumacher and Rubens Barrichello had opened up and enormous seven second break on the rest of the field. Just to prove that they are human after all, Barrichello spun off, wrecking his car, and late in the race, Schumacher did some damage to his under-carriage and limped over the line in fourth place. Naturally it was a terrific betting race, and while Schumacher went in favourite at $1.55, it was Barrichello who was our worst result of the favourites. A bet of €6000 came in from Germany at $3.50, and that was followed by a bet of $5000 from Sydney at $3.25. With the threat of bad weather, all drivers drew some sort of support, with Mark Webber backed to take out over $200,000 to win the race, and half that amount again to run a place. Eventual winner David Coulthard's odds doubled after qualifying, and he went to the starting grid as a $21 chance. We did take a $200 bet at that price, but that was easily the biggest bet. Whether or not Ferrari will return to dominate is open to conjecture, but from our perspective, the rule changes and the result of the Australian Grand Prix should ensure plenty of interest in the next couple of races at least. FOOTBALL A football betting theory colloquially known as ‘New Manager Syndrome’ demands that its adherents back soccer teams to win their first few games under new leadership. German Bundesliga clubs Mönchengladbach and Wolfsburg replaced Hans Meyer and Wolfgang Wolf respectively prior to the 24th round of matches and, as I have come to expect in my ten years at Centrebet, punters then fell over themselves in the scramble to back the two struggling sides. Disciples of the ‘New Manager Syndrome’ piled into both teams, with Wolfsburg's odds to win their home match against Cottbus tumbling from $2 to $1.85 thanks to a series of big single and accumulator wagers. Victories for Mönchengladbach and Wolfsburg, coupled with positive results for Bremen, Hertha and Kaiserslautern, resulted in a German Bundesliga day of mourning in the Centrebet office on Monday. 1860 sacked Peter Pacult on Wednesday and, surprise, surprise, punters started backing the Munich-based club as soon as Falko Götz assumed control. Thankfully, punters did not have it all their own way last weekend. Italian Serie A title contenders Milan's failure to beat Chievo was a nice result for Centrebet, while honours were shared in the English FA Cup and Spanish Primera Liga. Barcelona were the big gamble in the latest set of Champions League fixtures, with punters taking the view that backing a full-strength Barca to defeat a below-strength Leverkusen made much more sense than leaving their cash accumulating bank interest. So, once again, Centrebet fell foul of a German club. Anyone seen eating a bratwurst in the Centrebet office over the next seven days will be told, politely of course, to leave the building. The lederhosen ban will remain in place for considerably longer. Looking ahead, the Danish Superligaen competition resumes this weekend and there is strong support for Brøndby to beat Viborg at home, even though the defending champions sold Peter Madsen to Wolfsburg during the winter break. Michael Laudrup's side are $4 to retain the league title. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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