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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES After all the arguments that were presented as to why Adelaide had to go to Melbourne to play in the Wizard Cup final, it was the Crows who had the 'last laugh' completely outplaying Collingwood to win the final last Saturday night. We identified the fact that if Collingwood had an 'Achilles heel' it was that they had been outscored early in their previous matches, and it was always going to be difficult to give a side like Adelaide a start. The game itself turned out to be a betting bonanza. Three separate $10,000 bets were placed on Collingwood at around the $1.50 mark, but Crows supporters were also out in force. Bets of $6000 and $4400 were taken for Adelaide with a start of 15 points, as well as win bets of $5000 at $2.60 and $6000 at $2.70, but they were still a big result for us. Flushed with success, Crows supporters actually think they can now win the day premiership, and we have been busy this week coping with lots of bets for Adelaide at $6. Collingwood's loss has knocked the wind out of the sails of their backers, and they are back out to $7.50. Brisbane, shooting for a three-peat, have been cut to $2.85 after a Sydney client coupled them up in a premiership double with the Bulldogs in the NRL. A $30,000 outlay will be worth close to $350,000 should both favourites salute, but on face value, both competitions look very even. Andrew McLeod's performance in the Wizard Cup final saw a rush of betting on Monday for him to win the Brownlow Medal, and we have cut his price to $11. McLeod hasn't had much luck as far as the Brownlow is concerned, but is apparently a much more disciplined individual this year, so if he can keep out of trouble with the umpires, he will prove very hard to beat. Carlton remain $3.75 to win the wooden spoon, but over the past two weeks there has been support for St Kilda and Richmond, into $6 and $7 respectively. Both have had a pretty poor pre-season, and with Brad Ottens out of the Richmond side for most of the season, it's quite possible that the Tigers will have a poor year. FORMULA ONE Sepang will be the venue for this week's Malaysian F1 Grand Prix, and amid the confusion of new rules, and the upset result in the season opener in Melbourne, punters are having a difficult time of sorting this week's event out. Michael Schumacher is ruling favourite at $1.75, but the only significant bets early in the week were $6000 and $3000, both coming from Australia. Rubens Barrichello is second pick at $4.50, and while he failed to complete the race in Melbourne, he hasn't been ignored, including bets of $1000 and $600. Punters must think that David Coulthard's win was a fluke as he has been hard to sell at $8, whereas Juan Pablo Montoya and Kimi Raikkonen have each been backed to take out just under $20,000 at $9. Similar to the Australian Grand Prix, most of the outsiders have also met with support as punters seem to be certain that the rule changes will make it possible for some of the 'lesser lights' to be competitive, but we are not so sure. An Italian client has placed $7000 on Schumacher to grab pole position at $2, while Raikkonen has been backed to take out $10,000 to finish on the podium at $2.75. As an addition to what we already offer on the grand prix's, we will also be offering qualifying head to heads for each of the two days prior to race day, and the 'race' head to heads will be updated after qualifying is completed. POLITICS The New South Wales election this Saturday has been overshadowed by the possibility or war, but as we count down to the event, we are seeing plenty of interest. There hasn't been any change to betting on who will be the next premier, with Bob Carr still at $1.02 and John Brogden the 'bolter' at $10. Nearly $2000 has gone on Brogden at that quote with the biggest bet being $100. One bet of $10,000 has been placed on Carr retaining power, but with two days to go we expect a few more of those type of bets to come through. Every bit of press and polling points toward a Labor win, but who will ever forget Jeff Kennett's shock loss in Victoria a few years back? Betting on the individual seats has seen a trend away from the Liberals, with several Independents gaining support. The seat of Manly has seen one of the biggest moves with David Barr now a $1.25 chance after opening at $1.90. Close to $11,000 in bets forced that move, and the Liberal candidate, current Mayor Jean Hay, has hardly attracted any business at all at $3. In Menai, Labor's Alison Megarrity is now $1.33 to regain power after we took three seperate bets of $2000 for her at $1.50 and $1.40. Megarrity defeated Brett Thomas (Lib) in the last election, and Thomas has come back for another crack. This area has been identified as a possible upset, and as a result we have seen money for Thomas at $2.50, but the bet numbers favour Megarrity. One seat that looks certain to fall if you believe in the betting trends is Willoughby. Apart from 1978, Willoughby has always been a Liberal electorate, but with Peter Collins retiring, it doesn't look good for the Libs. We posted Liberal candidate Gladys Berejiklian favourite at $1.50, but she has been displaced by local mayor Pat Reilly (Ind) who is now into $1.65. Whilst we haven't been letting people on to win big amounts in these areas, we are quite sure that the fluctuations that predict some seats are sure to go will come to fruition. As we have said before, there is no more accurate poll then the 'punters poll'. BASKETBALL It is shaping up as a predictable Grand Final with Sydney and Perth, the top two teams, heavily favoured to advance to the season finale. Sydney and Perth both had an unexpected hiccup with a loss at home in their elimination play-off series but they were both able to bounce back strongly in the deciding game three. Townsville, who advanced as the highest ranked loser, face the task of becoming the first team in that situation to progress any further when they take on Sydney. They appear capable of winning the first game of the series at home but their chances of overcoming the Kings in Sydney appear slim. The Perth v Wollongong series has a similar feel about it. Wollongong, like Townsville, can boast one win during the season against their semi final opponent and are more than capable of getting the win at home but will face a tough challenge to secure a win in Perth. If the semi finals go as expected the NBL will get the Grand Final series they want. The two top teams who both finished on 22W-8L squaring off in the Championship series will be a fitting finale to the NBL season. In the NBA - With most teams 65 or 66 games into their 82 game schedule it is a good time to get out the crystal ball and make some predictions for the NBA Championship. The representative from the Western Conference has won the last four Championships and there is little evidence to suggest that trend will change this season. The Eastern Conference has provided a different contender for the past four seasons but the result has been the same each time, they have been outclassed, managing a total of only four wins in the best of seven Championship series. Detroit, New Orleans and Boston are strong chances of providing yet another new Eastern Conference contender but will meet stiff opposition from New Jersey, Philadelphia and Indiana before the Eastern Conference Champion is finally determined. With LA Lakers heading up a lot of markets there has to be some value a little further down the charts because this Los Angeles team is simply not as good as last year's team and it is debatable if they were even the best team last year. They beat Sacramento in a memorable seven games series last season to snare the Western Conference title but needed some incredibly good fortune during that series against an opponent who were without Stojakovic due to injury. He is fit and healthy and Bibby and Bobby Jackson are better players 12 months down track. Lakers will not beat Sacramento if they meet up with them during the play-offs. At 50W-16L, Dallas currently have the NBA's best record and they are very good at beating up on inferior teams but find it harder to get wins against the very best opposition. Their record against Sacramento is 1W-3L with the win coming in overtime on Monday. They are 1-1 against the Lakers and have had over three months to think about that loss which should have never been. LA outscored them 44-15 in the final quarter to secure a two point win. They get two more cracks at LA before season's end and if they are unable to gain a psychological advantage over them in those two games they would not fancy meeting up with the Lakers during the playoffs. Those two games may be crucial to Dallas' season as they will need wins if they are to retain the number one seeding and hold off the fast finishing San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs are a league best 9W-1L over their last 10 games and are within striking distance of Dallas. If they don't catch the Mavericks they are almost certain to finish with the number three seeding and the way the standings currently are that would mean a first round match up against the Lakers. The Spurs have the best road record in the NBA and are also a superior team to the Lakers. They have the personnel to match up with anyone and now that Argentine rookie Emanuel Ginobili has overcome injury and is getting more minutes they have a player who can swing a match with an instant contribution of the bench. San Antonio are the team that are over the odds and can go all the way to the NBA title. RUGBY LEAGUE Punters copped a battering on the opening round of rugby league, but it's not that battering that the scribes have been focusing, it was the one received by Penrith front rower Ben Ross at the hands of 'the Raging Bull', Gorden Tallis. After witnessing some of the send-offs and penalties imposed over the past couple of seasons by the NRL officials, it's hard to understand why Tallis didn't even have to front, but that's league! The aggressive Roosters have been given a wide berth by punters in premiership betting, and the same thing happened in last Friday's season opener against Parramatta. The Eels were backed from an opening $2.40 into $2.20, and while the largest bet was only $4000, the sheer volume of bets was staggering. The Eels were our 'tip', so it was good to be wrong (again) as they were thumped 32-14 by a Roosters side who if anything, look like they have improved in the off season. Wests Tigers always aquit themselves well early in the season, and they showed plenty of courage to outlast a disappointing St George Illawarra 24-20. As mentioned last week, there had been a stack of early money for the Dragons at $1.50, and also conceding 5½ points, and that money continued to flow in until kick-off. A Sydney punter came at us three times, investing a total of $18,000 on the Dragons, and capped off an ordinary day by placing $6000 on the Bulldogs conceding 18½ points start to Souths. Proving their pre-season trial form a lie, Souths actually looked a winning chance when Braith Anasta was sin binned, but the Bulldogs regrouped to win by eight points. While that may not have been an impressive win, don't forget that the Bulldogs were beaten by the Tigers in the opening round last year. For the fifth season in a row, the Cowboys were beaten in the first round, after being sensationally backed to beat Canberra. The big money for North QLD came late, including bets of $10,000 and $5000 (twice) at $1.80, and we were still taking bets at $1.70 when the game started. Somebody forgot to tell the Cowboys that there were big bucks riding on them as they were woeful in a 32 point defeat at the hands of a team who had the worst road record in the competition last year. Penrith gave us a great sight before going down to Brisbane by four points. Brisbane attracted several big bets including $10,000 to win ($1.45), as well as bets of $11,000, $8000 and $7500 conceding 7 points start. While it's obviously too early to pass judgement on teams, Penrith are going to miss Ryan Girdler whose wretched luck with injury has continued, now out for at least 16 weeks following shoulder surgery. Favourite backers were also dealt a savage blow when Cronulla, after leading 22-0, were overwhelmed by Melbourne, who won 36-32. The Sharks were easy to lay through multiples at $1.20, and also at -12½ points start. Melbourne did land one winning bet of $10,000 with the start at $1.90, as well as a bet of $7000 at $1.85 that the game total would exceed 53 points. This week's 'game of the round' on Friday will see Newcastle host the Roosters. Now it is very dangerous going against Newcastle at home, but they have a few things against them here. Ben Kennedy and Matt Parsons are out, and Newcastle have to front up after having played last Sunday, and in New Zealand! The Knights are slight outsiders in our market at $2.25, but punters have gone against our theory as we have taken bets of $6000 and $4000 in early action. Melbourne also have injury worries, as do Penrith, but on the named sides, and last week's form, Melbourne have been installed as $1.45 favourites at home Saturday night. Not much to report here apart from a bet of $10,000 for Penrith getting 8½ points start. Later the same night there are two intriguing matches. The Tigers are at Leichhardt against Canberra, and with both recording good wins last week, a good case can be put up for both sides. Wests are the favs at $1.60, and the early signs are that they are the preference of punters. As soon as that game finishes, the FOX footy coverage goes north to see if the North QLD Cowboys can improve on their insipid performance last week. Punters are a very forgiving breed (they have to be), and they have come back again to throw in for a Cowboys win over Manly. After opening at $1.95, bets totaling $13,000, all from Sydney, have forced that quote into $1.90, and while an improved showing by the Cowboys is on the cards, Manly have added some speed to their 'backs' from last year. The Warriors ran out of gas last week against Newcastle, and they face a big test of character against the Bulldogs on Sunday. Another loss at home, and the Kiwis might be looking down the barrel as far as season 2003 goes, and that alone has made for a good betting contest. The Warriors drew solid backing late last week, and we have already seen a sprinkling of support this week, including bets of $3000 and $2500, both from NZ, at $2.40. The Bulldogs however are one of the 'pin up sides' of the betting ranks, and are one side who cope quite well with travelling. Two Sydney punters have placed $8000 between them on the Bulldogs to win at $1.60, so already this is shaping as the best betting game of the weekend even though it is the last. CRICKET Australia have done it again! The Aussies, thanks to Andrew Symonds, used their 'get out of jail free' card in Tuesdays World Cup semi final against Sri Lanka. It was a tremendous betting game even before it started, with big bets of $8000 and $7000 coming for Sri Lanka at $3.25, and $USD 20,000 and $16,000 coming for the Aussies at $1.35. Even though Australia faultered early, we continued to see money for them at around the $1.55 mark, even though it looked like they were going to make a miserable score. Symonds gave the scoreline some credibility, but in our eyes, 212 was a 'gettable' score, so we took a bit more for Australia at half time at $1.55. Fortunately when Sri Lanka came out to bat, they impressed some of our Indian punters. At the end of the second over, they had zoomed into odds on at $1.80, a price that was taken in two bets alone to the tune of $35,000. Soon after it all began to turn to mud for the Sri Lankans, and in the twinkling of an eye, their Cup campaign was over, and Australia, who after 2 overs in the second innings were outsiders in this game, found themselves installed as $1.35 favourites to win the Cup. Tonight, India are $1.08 to beat Kenya and go into the final. It was Kenya who had India on the ropes last week, and for that reason they have had a lot of support in this game, including a bet of $2500 at $8 from Victoria. India are quoted at $1.07, with bets of $10,000, $7000 and two of $5000 coming for them, with no doubt more to follow. One Sydney punter placed $9000 on India to win the final at $2.50 before the Australian game, and he has come back today with another $4000 at $2.85. There will be plenty of anxious people watching the Australian innings when it gets under way on the final day. Adam Gilchrist has been getting plenty of accolades for his sporting gesture of 'walking' the other day, but the two NSW based punters who put $5000 each on Gilchrist ($2.10) to top the series runs for Australia. His 22 runs took him to 351, but while Hayden and Ponting went cheaply, it was Andrew Symonds who resurrected interest, especially when there was every chance that this was going to be their last innings. Symonds looked certain to surpass Gilchrist, but slowed down at the end to be 25 runs shy. Temporarily those on Gilchrist had the cash when all looked gloomy for Australia, but the Aussies, and Centrebet, live to fight another day. I wonder if Gilchrist will 'walk' in the final if the situation arises? GOLF The Honda Classic may have been short of big names but not on excitement as Major winners Davis Love 111 and Justin Leonard went head to head on the final day. Well backed players such as Huston, Beckman, Austin and Ogilvy may not have been far off the mark but it took favourite Love ($12) and ex British Open winner Leonard ($41) to provide the spark for an otherwise disappointing event. Love held a one shot lead coming into the final round from Leonard with a host of players such as Mayfair, Begay and Kelly all in with a chance. Love proceeded to birdie 2 of the first 3 holes and with 12 holes to play held a 2 shot lead over close friend Leonard with the others struggling to keep in touch. The $2.50 on offer Love prior to the final round appeared good value at this point , however Leonard always managed to keep in touch and with Love failing to capitalize on the inward nine where he shot a 1 over par, Leonard secured his eighth Tour victory. Other big finishes were Chad Campbell, who’s final round 64 shot him up the leader board to finish in a tie for second and 22yo Australian Adam Scott who equaled the course record with a 10 under 62. This week on Tour sees Tiger Woods return for The Bay Hill Invitational, an event he has won the previous 3 years. He also gets another opportunity to go head to head with world number two Ernie Els, a long awaited match-up which was anticipated but never occurred at The World Matchplay at La Costa in California. Woods is a solid $2.50 fav from Els, $6 and the very well backed Vijay Singh ($1000 each way at 21). Others in the betting include Charles Howell and recent winner Scott Hoch at $34. Others in with a chance include Chad Campbell $41, Adam Scott $41 and 1999 winner Tim Herron also $41. On the European Tour we saw Darren Fichardt win his second event in The Qatar Masters and in doing so deny James Kingston his first victory. Both shot a final round 3 under 69 but it was Fichardt who withstood the pressure winning on the 3rd extra hole. Evergreen Paul McGinley shot a final round 67 to finish 2 shots further back in 3rd place with another shot to David Howell. Draw card Padraig Harrington was never a winning chance and finished 9 shots off the pace. We head to Spain this week for the Madeira Island Open. Favouite is Bradley Dredge at $12 from the well supported John Bickerton, 5000 NOK ($1000 AUD) each way at $15 with Brian Davis and 1st time winner this season Robert Jan Derksen also given a chance. As is the norm on the European Tour this year, many outsiders have been supported such as Henrik Nystrom, $500 each way at $51 and Sebastian Fernandez $400 each way at $126 which is an indication of the evenness of this field. Other tours last week saw Australian Wendy Doolan come from 3 shots behind Lorie Kane to win her 2nd LPGA Tour event, the Welch’s Fry Championship while on the Champions Tour Tom Purtzer came from 3 shots behind the consistent Gil Morgan to win the SBC Classic by a stroke. This week, the LPGA Tour sees the return of Annika Sorenstam, a $2.85 fav from other big names in Se Ri Pak and Karrie Webb while best supported has been defending Champion Rachel Teske, $500 each way at $41. The Champions Tour has perennial favourite Hale Irwin heading the betting at $6 from Tom Watson at $9 while best backed have been Allen Doyle, $800 each way at $17 and Gil Morgan $500 each way at $15. It's fair to say the big names in golf are back this week! RUGBY UNION Round 4 of the Super 12’s produced two minor upsets with the Hurricanes downing the Sharks at Kings Park, 35-20, while the Cats emphasized the advantage of home ground with a stubborn come from behind victory over the Highlanders. The Hurricanes were well supported, with one wager of $10,000 at $2.25 saluting. Few punters could see the Highlanders being beaten, and they remained the anchor leg in most multiples. Other games went as predicted with the Crusaders too strong for an unlucky Chiefs outfit 36-29, the Brumbies too good for the Stormers 37-22, and the Waratahs getting over the top of the Bulls 26-16. This week is a similar round with the Blues, Brumbies and Waratahs all short priced favourites at $1.15 and appearing too strong in their respective games, while the other matches see two New Zealand teams travel to South Africa. On Friday night the Highlanders take on the Sharks at Kings Park, and have already been the best supported side this week despite having to give 5 points start. Several wagers at the win quote of $1.58, ($USD10,000 and $8,000), has seen them firm into $1.55 while in the other game punters see $1.80 the Cats as good value against the Hurricanes, with one wager of $15,000 and several smaller wagers forcing their price into $1.70 .The Hurricanes now receive a 2½ point start and are $2.10 to win the game at Bloemfontein, and although the Cats have won their last two at home narrowly, the $2.10 the Hurricanes does represent value. In Championship betting the Blues are now $2 fav to take the title and if they do so it will probably go on record as the worst result for bookmakers in pre post betting history on Super 12. FOOTBALL Champions League punters avoided the bleedingly obvious in the final round of Second Group Phase games, preferring to back teams with little or no incentive at long odds than support sides at short prices with everything for which to play. Barcelona ($5.50), Leverkusen ($5.50), Lokomotiv ($8), Juventus ($2.40), Manchester United ($4.50) and Milan ($2.60) kicked off their matches at relatively long odds because the results of their respective matches meant nothing to them. Rather than backing teams for whom victory was essential - Basel ($2.80), Dortmund ($2.45), Internazionale ($1.55), Newcastle ($1.55), Real ($1.33), Roma ($2.10) and Valencia ($2) - the majority of Centrebet punters adhered to the principles of value betting and, for once, paid the penalty. That is why Centrebet won money on a Champions League round in which seven of the eight results were unsurprising. A miserable week for Champions League flops Arsenal began when Blackburn, one of the only three clubs to win the English championship in the Premier League era, defeated the “Gunners” at Ewood Park and threw open the title race. Betting agencies paying out on Arsene Wenger's charges retaining the trophy with two months of the season remaining should remember that the first company to pull this publicity stunt ended up with egg on its face. A British bookmaker, whose boss lists Manchester United as his favourite club, paid out bets on the Red Devils winning the 1997-1998 Premier League competition only for Arsenal to race up the rails and overturn the Old Trafford side's 12-point advantage. Denmark's domestic league resumed after its three-month winter break and, as in England, defeat for the leaders coupled with victory for the second-placed side made the championship race more interesting. Centrebet celebrated the Superligaen's return with a 100 per cent book on Brøndby's game versus Viborg and intends to offer more books with zero theoretical profit margin between now and the end of the season. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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