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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Aussie Rules fans have been eager for the season to start, and they have been a little apprehensive to open their wallets on the first round, but with some of the recent trial results, we can't really blame them. Historically, the first round is normally quiet anyway as we all try and work out the big 'improvers' from the previous year. On face value, Richmond would have no hope of beating Collingwood at the MCG on Friday night, but it is Richmond! The Tigers have a habit of winning matches they shouldn't, and of losing ones that they should win, and although they go into the season opener as outsiders at $2.60, we are seeing money for them. The loss of Brad Ottens has been a big blow to Richmond, but one niggling doubt we have with Collingwood is that in their recent Wizard Cup matches, they were very 'slow' in the first half. We have taken a bet of $7000 for Collingwood to win at $1.50, as well as two bets totaling $5500 for the Magpies to beat a 15 point handicap. Most would have been surprised to see the West Coast as favourites against Port Adelaide, but Port will have several players out due to injury. When Port opened at $1.90, and we only saw $400 for them in early trading, whereas the Eagles have been extremely popular through multiples. The other WA side, Fremantle, face a daunting task in Adelaide, and while we don’t really expect Freo to win, we rate them a strong chance to get under the handicap. Two $5000 bets have already been placed on Adelaide conceding 30½ points start, and it appears as though Crows supporters think that they can justify why they are second fav's to win the premiership ($5.75), by starting the season with a big win. Essendon's ordinary pre-season form has meant that nobody wants to be on them to beat Brisbane on Saturday night. The Bombers opened at $4.40, and that was ignored. Brisbane on the other hand, were coupled up in over $20,000 worth of bets with Adelaide to win, and the signs are already there that the $1.20 for Brisbane may not be there for much longer. Hawthorn, like Port Adelaide, will be going into the first round minus some big names, which explains why they are the outsiders against Melbourne. The Hawks are $2.15, and while we have taken just under $3000 in early bets at that price, if Melbourne can begin the season in the form that they finished up on last year, they really should get the money here. Two enigmas of the competition, the Bulldogs and Geelong, will do battle in the other game on Sunday afternoon. Geelong plays Telstra Dome very well, and by virtue of a good Wizard Cup campaign, have been awarded favourtism at $1.80. The Cats aren't the sort of side that get punters exited enough to back them at 'odds on', and that has been reflected in the early action. What betting has taken place has been for the Bulldogs at $2.05, and there is a strong possibility that they will start a little bit shorter. In premiership betting, Adelaide are now into $5.75, and if they flog Fremantle this week, we can fully expect the barrage of support to continue. On the other hand, Port Adelaide have eased out to $6.50, and the support for them is nothing like what it has been in previous years. As a bonus for Collingwood supporters, they can bet now on who will win the Copeland Trophy, the Club's best and fairest winner. We have had numerous requests to cover the Copeland, which only goes to prove the theory held by some that Collingwood fans salivate over anything to do with the 'black and white'. No big surprises, with Nathan Buckley the $2.25 favourite, but the early money has been for Tarkyn Lockyer ($13) and James Clement at $17. CRICKET Australia continued on their merry way and added another World Cup to the trophy cabinet when disposing of India in last Sundays final after creating a few more records as they piled on 359 runs. Watching this demolition job, it was hard to imagine that at one stage in the semi-final against Sri Lanka that the Aussies were the outsiders to qualify, but that is the uncertainty of one day cricket. The final itself turned out to be the big betting game we thought it would, but betting 'live' turned out to be a 'fizzer' as the Australian batsmen cut the Indian bowling to shreds. Some of the pre match bets included $20,000 and $10,000 for Australia at $1.45, and then $USD 25,000 taken at $1.50 after India won the toss and elected to field. That decision proved to be India's downfall, but was interpreted by most of our punters that rain would intervene, and India were very easy to 'lay' after winning the toss. They had already met with solid support at $3 and $2.85, and then we took two separate bets of $10,000, both from Australia, for an Indian win at $2.60. Once the first ball was bowled, we hardly saw another dollar for India to win, but our betting book was in a good position, so we could enjoy the match, and of course the result for Australia. We did receive a little bonus as a result of Ricky Ponting's innings of 140 not out. That innings saw Ponting edge out Adam Gilchrist as the top Aussie batsman for the series. When betting first opened, Ponting was a $3.25 chance, but all through the tournament, it looked as though either Gilchrist or Matthew Hayden would win, and that duo took it in turns to be favourite. Gilchrist fell 5 runs short of Ponting's total of 423, and those who took the short odds for Gilchrist over the past week would be far from impressed with his sporting gesture to 'walk' in the semi final. The tour of the West Indies is next on the agenda, and with Steve Waugh still at the helm, we are certain that this series will carry plenty of interest. Australia are $1.35 to win the 'best of four' series, and that has already been taken with bets of $6000 and $3800. A 'drawn series' is next in line at $4.50. and there have been a few early bets for the West Indies at $6. They were pretty ordinary at the World Cup, and haven't been a force in test cricket for a long time, but the expected 'lively' pitches will bring the Windies into calculations. ELECTIONS There weren't too many surprises in the NSW Election held last Saturday, in fact there were none! As expected, Premier Bob Carr's Labor Party had a resounding win, and those who took the $1.02 never had cause for concern. Three separate NSW punters placed $10,000 on Carr to 'pick up' $200, and we also took bets of $8900 and $7000 at the same quote. Whilst John Brogden didn't make much of an impact on the Labor vote, there were some who thought he could pull of an upset of gigantic proportions, and we did take two late bets of $500 at $16. Once again, the 'punters poll' proved more accurate than some of the media polls when we went through the results of the individual seats that we accepted bets on. Most were won by the favourites, or at the least well backed candidates. Probably the two that stood out were Greg Aplin in Albury and Shelley Hancock in the South Coast district. Aplin originally opened second pick, but late money arrived from Thursday onwards which saw him go in as favourite at $1.50. It was similar with Hancock, but there were two 'waves' to the betting. A couple of early shoppers secured $7, each confined to a $200 bet (luckily), and then from Thursday onwards, she was backed from $3 into $1.80, with the last bet being $1500 at $1.90. Fortunately in this instance, we managed to get two bets of $2000 for opening favourite Wayne Smith at $1.80, but that fell a fair way short of the payout. Some of the winners, although favourites, were fruitful results, but at the end of the day we again showed a loss, proving that following the 'money trail' on elections is a good move. ENTERTAINMENT Nicole Kidman, the 'darling' of Australian cinema, captured our first ever Best Actress Academy Award last weekend, and while Nicole's win was good news for the many Australians who backed her, the view that she would be beaten because of some 'alleged' off screen dalliances saw late overseas money come for the next two in the betting. Strangely enough, while Kidman had been favourite since betting opened, the $1.80 on offer the day of the awards was nearly the best we offered. At that quote, a Queensland punter had a win of $4000 after investing $5000, but Kidman’s win was still a good result after late support for Renee Zellweger ($2.75) and Julianne Moore at $5. Most of that money came from Norway, but we did take one bet of €500 for Moore from an Austrian client. All up, we bet on seven categories, and although five favourites won, we got the right result in two of the largest betting awards, best actor and best director. Roman Polanski won the 'Best Director' as $17 shot, and he was another who punters shunned after some bad press. When betting opened, a South Australian client backed Polanski to win close to $10,000 at $13, but that was the last time we saw any serious money for him. It was Rob Marshall (Chicago) and Martin Scorsese for 'Gangs of New York' who staged a two man betting duel, with favourtism alternating between the two. Scorsese opened favourite at $1.65, but when Marshall won the Directors Guild award, he zoomed into a similar quote. For the last two days, both gents were very easy to 'sell', with Marshall starting slight favourite at $1.80 ahead of Scorsese at $1.90. For the second year in a row, the Oscar results were very kind for Centrebet. This weekend we will be opening up the betting on the Eurovision Song Contest, one of the highlights on the global entertainment calendar. Latvia won last year, but the host nations haven't performed too well in the past on this event. RUGBY LEAGUE After a torrid first round to the new season, things only got worse for punters in the second week of NRL action when only two favourites managed to cover the handicap. Friday night's four point win to the Roosters over Newcastle could have been a lot worse than a small loss for Centrebet. The Roosters were one of the best backed sides of the round, but two late bets of $8000 for Newcastle at $2.25 helped ease the pain. Melbourne’s 26 point flogging was a winning result even though they went into that match as favourites. Two $10,000 bets were placed on Penrith with 8 and 7 points start, and while the Panthers were our 'tip' to be an improver this season, they have a long way to go if last weeks form is any indication. Canberra kept their winning record in tact with a hard fought 7 point win over Wests Tigers. The Tigers had several large wagers placed on them, with the biggest being $USD 8000 from an English client. The Raiders, like Melbourne, were written off by most before the season started, and this week a bet of $4000 has gone on Melbourne to make the final 8 at $2, with a $3000 wager coming for Canberra to make the finals at $1.90. Both are $28 to win the title, but they haven’t impressed punters enough just yet to take those odds. The Brisbane Bronco's remain at $6 to win the title, and while we still have a big question mark hanging over the Bronco's, so do punters. Since the season started, we have only taken $300 in premiership bets for Brisbane, and that is not what we are used to seeing from Brisbane fans. It was an absolute miracle that Brisbane defeated Souths last week, and the Sydney punter who placed $12,000 on Brisbane to win at $1.14 should be sending a crate of champagne to Gordon Tallis. Not so lucky were those who conceded the big handicap allocated to Brisbane. Bets of $12,000, $9500 and $8000 were placed on the Bronco's at the handicap, and they were never any hope of collecting. This week, Brisbane are at home to Cronulla, and we are going to get stuck into Brisbane again. They are $1.33 to win, and we have already seen a bet of $6000 for the Bronco's giving up 8½ points start. They have also been taken in several doubles with the other 'shortie' of the round, the Roosters, who are $1.12 to beat Penrith. While we are not optimistic enough to suggest Penrith can beat the co-premiership favourites, we consider the handicap of 15½ points start very attractive. Punters disagree with us, and in the early flurry of bets on Wednesday, close to $38,000 was placed on the Roosters conceding the start. Canberra, who have done us two favours from two rounds can do us another one this week by getting beaten! The Raiders were also backed as soon as betting opened, with a Victorian league fan leading the 'charge' with a bet of $9000 at -3½ points. The same person had the same bet on New Zealand giving up 4½ points start to Manly, and that was followed up by two bets of $4000 from New Zealand. This is a big match as it will be 'Manly', and not the 'Northern Eagles', and they will be returning 'home' to Brookvale. Forget all about last week’s loss to North Queensland, the Eagles are better than that, and we think that they can provide an upset at home. Punters might be sick of Parramatta already, but we are sticking with them at home on Friday night. The Eels looked like 'world beaters' early last week against the Dragons, but once again went down, much to the disappointment of punters. Newcastle had a tough match against the Roosters, and we didn’t really think that the $1.90 we displayed for Newcastle this week would be as popular as it has been. An old rugby league client has come out of hibernation to hit us with a $10,000 bet for the Knights, that being the second wager of that size we have taken for them. Monday night football makes a return when Souths take on North Queensland. The 'Souths' that played against Brisbane last week would be unbackable against a side who struggle when away from home, but Souths aren't renowned for their consistency. They are also going to miss Chris Walker, but on the other side of the ledger, the Cowboys will be without Nathan Fien who is 'gone' for the season, and there is a doubt over Glenn Morrison. Souths are favoured at $1.60, but in a surprise, the first $4000 wagered on this game was for North Queensland with 4½ points start. The Monday night games have always been big betting matches, it will be very interesting to see how it shapes up come Monday. BASKETBALL Perth took the easy path into the NBL final series by putting away Wollongong 113-84 in the West last night, but as usual, the Sydney Kings proved how frustrating they are to follow when Townsville thrashed them by 22 points to take that series to a final game. The Kings looked like 'world beaters' when they beat Townsville in QLD at the weekend, but once again the Kings displayed why they are the brunt of so many jokes by never being in the hunt in game two at home. Punters wouldn't think that loss was a joke however as the Kings were one of the best backed sides all year. Bets of $12,000, $10,000, $7200 and $5000 (twice) were placed on Sydney conceding 8 and 9 points start, as well as a win bet of $11,750 at $1.17. Townsville did have a few admirers however, and landed one bet of $6000 with 9 points start. As soon as that game was over, there was a rush to get on Perth to beat Wollongong, and this time the favourites didn't let their backers down. While the betting on the game wasn't as large as the match prior, we did take a $10,000 bet for Perth at -8½, then $7000 and $6000 at -9½. Sydney will again be at home on Saturday night in game three against Townsville, and again will be short priced favourites. We have posted the Kings at $1.27, or -7½ points, and while that might seem strange given last nights result, it is the identical set of circumstances to their series against Melbourne, and we saw what they did to the Tigers in the last match. FOOTBALL West Ham goalkeeper David James will receive his first round of applause this season if, as expected, Calamity starts England's Euro 2004 Group Seven qualifying game against Liechtenstein at Vaduz's Rheinstadion on Saturday. Arsenal custodian David Seaman's schoolboy errors in England's last competitive fixture, October's 2-2 draw versus Macedonia at St Mary's Stadium in Southampton, prompted Centrebet to open a book on the identity of England's goalkeeper for their next qualifying match, an idea that its United Kingdom-based competitors copied 12 hours later. The likelihood is that Sven-Göran Eriksson would have stood by Seaman ($2.20) had the favourite not tweaked his hamstring just before the Swedish coach announced his squad. With Seaman out of action, Svennis selected Paul Robinson ($4.50), Richard Wright ($9) and James ($2.40), whose performance in the first half of England's loss to Australia was ordinary. However, in spite of his mediocre English Premier League form and dismal display against England's biggest sporting rivals, James looks set to start his first competitive game for the 1966 World Cup champions. Football punters who backed the former Watford, Liverpool and Aston Villa custodian will never strike a luckier winning wager in their sports betting lives! Very little in the way of top-class domestic soccer this weekend with Euro 2004 taking centre stage. Tournament hosts Portugal are Centrebet's joint championship favourites at $6, with Spain ($6), France ($6.50), Italy ($7), Netherlands ($7), England ($9), Germany ($9), Turkey ($15), Denmark ($23) and Sweden ($29) rounding out the top ten in its latest betting list. Soccer punters are backing Azerbaijan ($16 to beat Wales in Cardiff) and Hungary ($4.55 to defeat Poland in Chorzow) to cause Saturday's biggest shocks. England are $1.02 to beat Liechtenstein. GOLF The Bay Hill Invitational provided further proof that Tiger Woods is simply the best golfer of all time with an emphatic 11 shot victory, his third from only four starts this season. Although not wanted in early betting at $2.50 punters could not contain their enthusiasm at $2 after the first round when Tiger was 2 shots off the lead. Bets of $5000 and €2000 at that price were only the tip of the ice-berg as punters found new confidence in Tiger, and although several players of the calibre of Ernie Els, Vijay Singh and Darren Clarke were well backed to beat him, none were able to challenge the incomparable Woods from that point. With one round to go Woods was 4 shots clear of Brad Faxon with a further 2 shots to Cink and Baddeley and was at an unbackable quote of $1.06. This did not put punters off the scent however with one Swedish client placing 20,000 SEK to say Woods would go on with the job. I'm sure this punter felt the same colour as Tiger when he found out he was in hospital with food poisoning prior to the final round and was a realistic chance of not teeing off. The fact he was able to pull away from the field and win by 11 shots was testament to his courage and ability. This week Tiger is the short price of $2.25 to win back the Players Championship he lost last year in a shock result to Craig Perks. This event usually goes to the cream of golfing talent and it is unlikely a result similar to last year where Perks, Ames and Andrade filled 3 of the top 4 places will be repeated. Best backed to beat Tiger have been African players Retief Goosen ($1000 each way at $41) and Nick Price, ($1000 each way at $51). Both these players have fine form at Sawgrass with a 14th and 9th finish last year respectively, however it is difficult to see them challenge the likes of Woods and Els in their current form. The LPGA tour has its first major of the year this week with the Kraft Nabisco Championship. The top players on tour including Sorenstam, Pak and Webb will be there to take on up and comers such as Lorena Ochoa, Grace Park and Hee-Won Han. If last weeks event, the Safeway Ping, is any indication this is sure to be one exciting event. Annika Sorenstam is the defending champion here and was in fine form last week leading by 2 shots coming to the final round where she could only manage a one under 71, and succumbed to a magnificent closing round of 8 under 64 to Se Ri Pak. Betting has been brisk on this event with Christie Kerr, ($400 each way at $41) and Rosie Jones ($400 each way at $51) best backed to beat Sorenstam $2.75 and Pak $6.50 but there is a host of chances in an event not only packed with classy players but with its fair share of glamour as well. There is no Champions tour event this week but last week saw Australian Roger Davis provide a good result for not only himself, but Centrebet as well, when he won The Toshiba Senior Classic by 4 shots from Larry Nelson with a further shot back to Canizares, Irwin and Jacobs. In doing so Davis has become the fourth first time winner on the Champions tour this year and emphasizes the growing depth of talent on a tour once dominated by the likes of Irwin, Watson and Fleisher. Allen Doyle and Gil Morgan were very well backed to take this event and fortunately for us managed to finish just out of the placings. RUGBY UNION The fifth round of Super 12’s saw another major surprise when the Stormers surprised the Waratahs with a great come from behind victory 39-29. The Waratahs looked to be in good form by completing a double in South Africa two weeks ago and then holding on in an exciting game against the Bulls last week, and with League converts Rogers, Tuqiri and Blacklock looking more comfortable in their new code, they were expected to have too much class for the injury plagued Stormers. However fate has a fickle way about it and the Stormers were able to extract revenge for their 3 native teams in a topsy turvy match in Sydney. The Blues were too good for a disappointing Reds outfit, the Highlanders scraped home against the Sharks, the Brumbies too strong for the Bulls, while the Hurricanes provided the only other minor upset when they proved too strong for a Cats team which is hard to catch. This week is a great round of Super 12’s with top teams and local derby's providing lots of interest. The Brumbies go to Eden Park to take on top team the Blues. They are receiving 12½ points start at $1.90 and their improved form has seen over $US 5000 placed on them with this start. The Highlanders take on the Crusaders in Carisbrook which traditionally is a slogging affair. The Highlanders are receiving 3½ points start at $1.90 with interest for both teams. In Wellington, the Hurricanes give the Chiefs 4½ points start, and although always dangerous, we see them as the risk of the round having to return from South Africa against a refreshed Chiefs outfit. In Sydney the Waratahs look to bounce back against a disappointing Reds team plagued by injury and a lack of cohesion and although receiving 9½ points start punters are already shying away from them. The final game is a South African derby with the Cats playing host to the Sharks at Ellis Park. The Sharks are receiving 5½ points start at $1.90 and punters believe this is the right line with money for both teams. These all appear great contests and will provide conclusive results as to where some teams stand in their challenge for the Super 12’s trophy. COMPETITION WINNER Finally, congratulations must go to a Sydney punter, and commiserations to a Swedish client following Centrebet's World Cup Cricket competition. To win, all a client had to do was place at least one $10 bet on anything to do with the World Cup, then they could have a go at selecting six aggregates during the Super Six and Final series. Ex Aussie cricketer and media personality David Hookes provided his thoughts, and the first prize was $6000. We were surprised how many Scandinavian's follow the cricket, but our friend from Sweden didn't validate his entry by placing a bet, so his supreme effort in 'nailing' 100% correctly how many LBW's, how many would be bowled out, and the total number of sixes hit. Unfortunately for him, he was out of the race, with the Sydney based winner $6000 better off after predicting the LBW's, bowled out, as well as the aggregate total of all options, which was 232. Stay tuned for more similar types of competitions in the very near future Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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