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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES St Kilda and Geelong would both be unaccustomed to 'finals footy', but one of these sides will be able to adorn the cabinet with the Wizard Cup trophy on Saturday night. Not many have been surprised by St Kilda's meteoric rise already this season, and while it can be very dangerous to put too much emphasis on the pre-season comp, we have had to bring them into $15 (from $17) to win the premiership following a barrage of small bets. There's not much doubt that the Saints are definitely a side of the future, we just think that it won’t be this year. In last weeks big win over Essendon, there was plenty of money to say that St Kilda could win at $2.10, and bearing mind that punters are loathe to back Geelong at the best of times, we have opened the Saints at $1.35 to win the Wizard Cup. On face value, $3 for Geelong was possibly over the odds, and around $3500 in bets saw us make a slight change into $2.90, but St Kilda will be popular through multiples with most of the NRL favourites for the weekend. James Hird has been a 'firmer' in Brownlow betting over the past week, now into $15 from $17. The Essendon captain has been backed to win close to $40,000, and while he is fast approaching the veteran stage, there is little doubt that the umpires love him. CRICKET The return of Shane Warne to the Australian Test side inspired a lot more interest in the first test against Sri Lanka than we expected. With this week being the first week of NRL, and given that we have had a lot of cricket recently, we thought punters may have become tired of cricket, but how wrong we were! The Aussies went into the first test at $2.20, and a good risk according to us. There has always been a theory that our side a re suspect to legitimate spin, so we were prepared to risk them. While there was money at that quote, including one bet of $6000, it was obvious that a lot of Aussie cricket followers saw it the same way as us, with Sri Lanka firming from $5 into $4.50. The big money however was for a draw. All the talk was around that the Galle wicket would be a spinners paradise (and it was), but there was also talk of bad weather, and that saw a series of big bets come for the draw before the match started. One of our Indian clients led the charge with a $30,000 wager at $2.60. Betting has been available during the breaks, and at the end of each days play, and as it currently stands. Locally, the final of the Pura Cup will get under way on Friday, and there wouldn't be too many cricket followers around the country who won’t be cheering for a Victorian win! The Vics have been the form side all season, and what a fitting result it would be if they were to finish off all the good work that the late David Hookes began. Hookesy instilled a lot of self belief into the young Victorian side, and they have displayed a huge amount of maturity following his untimely death. Their form justifies the quote of $1.40 to win the Cup, but there has also been a good rally from Queensland punters who fancy their side at $2.75. We are also offering 'three way betting' (includes the draw) as this is scheduled as a five day game. The draw is completely friendless at $3.60, with most of the money on that bet option being for Victoria at $2.25. POLITICS Normally we wouldn't report on elections on a weekly basis, but there is so much interest on the Australian federal election that while we continue to see money coming in, we will continue to write about it. Opposition leader Mark Latham continues to make inroads into the stranglehold that the Howard Government have on the electorate, so much so that Latham is now into $2.20 to be next Prime Minister. We got it completely wrong when we put him up at $4 after he was elected leader, but we didn't figure on him shedding all of the 'rough edges'. Latham has said all the right things so far, and has the Govt on the back foot, so he can only shorten in the betting even further. Last week a bet of $5000 came from Victoria for the Coalition at $1.45, but this week we have taken a bet of $13,000 for Labor at $2.55, as well as a series of smaller bets. So far, and remember that the election hasn't been called yet, close to $150,000 has been bet on the result! RACING Lonhro made world wide news last week, not for his fabulous form, but for the monster $1million dollar wager placed on him at a rival company. While plenty would argue that had the punter waited until race day to put his bet on that he would have been $445,000 better off, the publicity surrounding the bet started a frenzied attack on bookies by punters wanting to back Lonhro. We also had Lonhro at $1.55 to win the Australian Cup, and took close to $70,000 in bets for him before Saturday. In an amazing turnaround, Fleminton bookmakers took a 'set' against the champ, and we all bet $2 just prior to the race, but the betting drift must have frightened many away as he was hard to lay at that price. Proving what a super horse he is, Lonhro got up off the canvas to win, much to the delight of punters around the country. HARNESS RACING Perth is hosting the Inter Dominion pacing final this year, and the first round of heats get under way on Friday night. Western Australian pacer The Falcon Strike has been favourite since betting opened a month ago, and is rock solid at $3.25, and while his form may have been disappointing when he travelled east, his form in the west is impeccable, and he put in a good run when second last week. The eye catching performance in that same race last week was Faking It, a stable mate of The Falcon Strike. As much as $401 was given pre-post for Faking It, and having drawn favourably in a heat this week, we are beginning to see bets arrive at $13. Our New Zealand punters have been quite this Inter Dominion, perhaps conceding that the Aussie horses hold the advantage in the warmer climate over in Perth. The only real push we have seen from NZ has been for Napoleon ($1000 each way at $17) and for veteran Holmes DG, also $1000 each way, but this one taken at $51. Tipping against the home town horses in Perth is dangerous, so it is hard to go past one of the Gary Hall trained pair of The Falcon Strike or Faking It as the likely winner. Centrebet will be betting on all heats of the Inter, and they will open at 7pm tonight (Thursday). RUGBY LEAGUE To date, only one bet of $5 has been placed on reigning premiers Penrith to win the 2004, and while it is going to be difficult for the Panthers to make it 'back to back', it is surprising that punters have taken a set against them. The Sydney Roosters maintain status as favourites at $4.50, and even they have been hard to sell. The sides that have been supported are New Zealand ($8 into $7), Newcastle ($10,000 at $12), Melbourne ($5000 at $26), Cronulla ($2500 at $26) and the big one, $37,500 on the Bulldogs at $9. Now that bet was taken the week before all their current problems arose, but one thing the Bulldogs do have is a close community, and it wouldn't surprise us to see them come out and give Parramatta a hiding this week. At the other end of the spectrum, Souths have been backed to the exclusion of all others to run last. After opening at $2.65, the Rabbitoh's are now into $2.20 to grab the wooden spoon, with $4000 in bets coming at that quote this week. Souths have to front up to the Roosters this Sunday, and a thrashing there would see the Rabbitohs slashed to odds on to finish at the bottom of the ladder. All the negatives of the past few weeks have temporarily taken a back seat with the opening round getting under way on Friday night. Penrith play Newcastle first up, and a near full strength Panthers go in as favs at $1.58. Not a lot of action on this one, with punters waiting to see if Ben Kennedy is a confirmed starter for Newcastle. Fox Sports will be covering all three games on Saturday, and all three have seen plenty of activity. West’s play Cronulla in the early game, one that we thought the Tigers could win, but punters disagree, with bets of $10,000, $6000 and $5000 coming for Cronulla conceding 3½ points start. The big clash between the Bulldogs and Parramatta will be worth the wait. It has been well documented what the Bulldogs have gone through, and Parramatta have always promised so much, but failed to deliver. As soon as betting opened on Tuesday, two $5000 bets came immediately for Parramatta at $2.30, and another $8000 with 3½ points start, but we are beginning to see money arrive for the Bulldogs at $1.60. North Queensland have been the best backed side of the round, and that will be a surprise to most, based on recent history. The $1.33 has been taken with bets of $10,000 and $5000, and the -8½ has been taken by three separate bets of $5000. Manly have a new look side, hopefully they can serve it up to the Cowboys! It's only game one, but the Brisbane v New Zealand clash could be a good pointer towards the title winner this year. The Bronco's really struggled last year and only won one of their last eleven matches. Many are tipping that their era in the big time has finished, so coming up against a slightly weakened Warriors side will be a good test of where they are at. Punters have been very apprehensive to take the $1.65 for Brisbane, but there has been support from the Kiwi's for the Warriors at $2.20. It looks likely that they could even start marginally shorter if no money arrives for Brisbane. St George host Canberra at Oki Jubilee Stadium. The Dragons were season 2003's most inconsistent side, but with Jason Ryles the only notable absentee, they have to be favourites ($1.45, or -6½) over the Raiders. Early signs are that punters will stick with the Dragons, with bets of $5500, $3000 and $2200 coming for them conceding the start. Punters also are prepared to concede a monstrous 20 point start in the Roosters v South’s game. Trial form for Souths has been far from good, while the Roosters will role out practically the same side that went down to Penrith in last years final. Nearly $20,000 went on the Roosters conceding the start when betting opened on Wednesday, and the signs are there that that will not be the end of it. Centrebet will be betting at half time on all five televised Fox Sports games for this week. SOCCER Maybe those persons who say that the English FA Cup is losing its mystique have a point because our punters did not have any problems making money on the markets that we framed around the four quarter-final matches. Millwall's failure to beat Tranmere at The New Den was the only significant blot on their copybook and even then they were frightfully unlucky not to collect. The Lions dominated their lower-league opponents from the opening whistle and missed a second-half penalty kick. One of our own - Australia international defender Kevin Muscat - was the guilty party. Arsenal did most of the damage. We thought that, on paper, Millwall represented better value than the Gunners at around the 1.60 mark. However, as English managerial legend Brian Clough is fond of reminding soccer supporters, football is played on grass, not paper, and Arsenal were brilliant on the green stuff against Portsmouth. So impressive were the Gunners in their 5-1 win at Fratton Park that Pompey coach Harry Redknapp tipped Arsenal to win the Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League treble at nice odds. Redknapp is one of England's most famous sports punters. In summary, our punters backed Arsenal, Manchester United, Millwall and Sunderland for three match winners out of four. They also forecast the total game score correctly in each of the FA Cup fixtures and lumped on the Gunners leading at half time and full time of their tie. That one really hurt. There was also money for Ruud van Nistelrooy to notch for the Red Devils. He scored twice. GOLF The Ford Championship at Doral has been kind to Australians over the years, particularly in play-offs. Firstly Greg Norman defeated Paul Azinger with an eagle at the first play-off hole in 1990 and this year Craig Parry holes a six iron from 160 metres to defeat Scott Verplank on the first play-off hole. Parry's shot now goes down in the annuls of golf as one of the greatest holing shots to win a tournament of all time, along with Bob Tway's bunker shot to win the US Open in 1986 and Larry Mize's chip to win The Masters in 1987, ironically both against Greg Norman. Perhaps it is only fair that the equilibrium be restored at Doral. This week at the Honda Classic Justin Leonard returns to defend his title at Mirasol and is at the quote of $23. Favourite is Davis Love, fresh from a defeat by Tiger Woods at the final of the Accenture World match play and obviously in good form at $7.50, David Toms is $13, Chris Di Marco, $17 and Australian Robert Allenby at $21, all with solid claims in this event. While the Honda has not been as well supported as other events in recent times it has still generated interest particularly for the lesser lights. Rory Sabbatini, $67, Neal Lancaster, $126, Stephen Ames, $81 and Tim Herron, $67, have all been backed to win $40,000 by local clients. This event has produced a few surprises in recent years and the evenness of this year’s field may produce another upset. On the European tour, the Dubai Desert Classic produced an unusual result as Mark O'Meara and Paul McGinley fought out a classical final round. Despite the support for Tiger Woods, Ernie Els and Padraig Harrington, all with great form at Emirates Golf Club in Dubai, it was seasoned campaigners O'Meara and McGinley who stole the show and finish four and three shots respectively in front of their nearest competitors Ernie Els and Englishman David Howell. Despite Els' magnificent final round of seven under, 65, it was the professional manner in which O'Meara hit every green in regulation to secure his fourth victory on the European tour, his first since the British Open in 1998, that took the imagination of the public. This week the European tour heads to Qatar for the Qatar Masters. Consistent Englishman Brian Davis is favourite at $13 from Thongchai Jaidee at $15 and David Howell, third at last weeks Dubai Classic, at $17.Best backed have been Paul McGinley at $21 and Australian Wade Ormsby at $81 in what has been an otherwise disappointing betting affair. The first event of the LPGA tour commences this week with the Welch's/Fry Championship in Tuscon, Arizona. Defending champion here is Wendy Doolan at the savoury quote of $71. Favourite is Se Ri Pak at $6 from Australian Karrie Webb at $10 and Korean Grace Park at $11. Other than missing Annika Sorenstam and Rachel Teske, this event features the other top twenty players in the world and is sure to provide great golf. Best supported have been Meg Mallon, $26 in from $41, and Laura Davies at $23, fresh from a victory at last week AAMI Australian Women’s Open. RUGBY UNION The third round on the Six Nations saw some surprise results with Italy proving too strong for Scotland 20-14 at the Stadio Flaminio, Rome, landing one wager of $10,000 at $1.90 receiving 5½ start. Later on Saturday evening probably the biggest upset in recent Six Nations history occurred when Ireland upset England 19-13 at Twickenham. England at the prohibitive odds of $1.05 to win, conceded 19½ points start to Ireland. however the plucky Irish needed no assistance when they systematically dispatched the English and in doing so upset the evening for one of our New Zealand clients who placed $100,000 on England at the win price. The following evening Wales gave France a run for their money going down 29-22 at Cardiff. France conceded 10½ points to the Welsh at $1.90 with several wagers of $10,000 from an English client not covering. The results have thrown Six Nations betting into turmoil with France now favourite at $1.75 from England $2.40 and Ireland with a realistic chance of a major boilover at $9. Ireland play Italy and Scotland both at home while Sweet Chariot must defeat France in Paris to retain the title. Last weeks super 12 results, saw several upsets. The Chiefs proving too strong for the blues in Auckland, winning 27-20 on Friday night. The Blues conceded 18½ points at $1.90 which saw several $10,000 wagers not cover. The first game on the Saturday night saw the Brumbies steal a 23-20 victory away from the Sharks, and also $100,000 from Centrebet after a New Zealand client backed the Brumbies at $1.02 to win the match. Needless to say, Steve Walsh's controversial penalty on fulltime was not met favourably by Centrebet and Sharks fans alike. The other major upset of the round, saw the Hurricanes defeat the Stormers 25-19 in Cape Town. The Stormers were solid at $1.35 and conceding 7½ points at $1.90 with one $20,000 wager falling to a committed Hurricanes outfit. This week the Highlanders are at home at the 'house of pain', to the Sharks and are conceding 10½ points start, the Hurricanes at home to the Cats conceding 17½ points start while the game of the round has the Queensland reds hosting a Carlos 'Spencerless' Blues at Ballymore, the Blues are a $1.50 favourites and are conceding 5½ points at $1.90 and welcome the return of Rupeni Caucaunibuca to the team. With doubts on Chris Latham, Junior Pelesasa the Reds may find it difficult to hold out a Blues unit desperate to avenge last weeks upset. Finally, the Waratahs travel to CapeTown without star fullback Matt Rogers, the Waratahs are $1.45 and must concede 6½ points start at $1.90. If the current trend of Super 12 result continues, then expect more upset this week. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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