|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Aussie
Rules
|
Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Not for the first time, or the last, Geelong 'self-destructed' against St Kilda in last week's Wizard Cup final. The Cats simply don’t know how to win a game that matters, and after leading for most of the match, not only were they beaten, but also beaten by 22 points, which took the margin beyond the required handicap of 19½ points start. There has been a lot of hype surrounding St Kilda, and how far they might go this year, and several of our bigger AFL punters were prepared to take the short odds against Geelong. Two bets of $10,000 came in at $1.40 and $1.35, before we accepted a bet of $50,000, from Victoria, at $1.35. It did seem a very short quote, and further bets of $10,000 and $6300 came at the $1.35, as well as three bets of $5000 conceding 19½ points start. That was the hard thing to swallow, Geelong went from looking the winners to even getting beaten by the spread! St Kilda coach Grant Thomas has said this week that he doesn't think his side can win the premiership this year, but he is in a minority there. The Saints are into $13 to win the title, and continue to gain support from smaller punters. Last weekends trial matches threw up a few interesting results, but as we have learnt, following trial form can be a costly habit. With only a little over a week to go before the start to season 2004, serious money is now arriving on all 'futures' options. A wager of $40,000 has come for Port Adelaide to make the final eight at $1.30, $10,000 for Collingwood at the same odds, as well as $6000 for St Kilda at $1.65. In wooden spoon betting, Hawthorn ($81) and Collingwood ($101) have each been backed to win $30,000 to finish at the bottom of the ladder, while Essendon spearhead Matthew Lloyd has had a bet of $4000 placed on him at $2.50 to win the Coleman Medal. Betting on the first round of AFL will be open at 10am on Monday morning, and once again we will be betting at each break this season on the televised matches. RUGBY LEAGUE Round one of the new season went to the bookies when only three favourites won, with only two of those covering the handicap. Having said that though, there was plenty of money won on a couple of the 'roughies', namely Newcastle, Wests and Manly. The Knights were a really good go against Penrith, firming from $2.35 into $2.20 at kickoff. It wasn't really one big bet that forced the change, just the fact that 80% of the bets we took were for Newcastle, with many thinking Penrith would struggle with 'premiership hangover'. It is too early to tell if that is the case, but it is worth remembering that the Panthers were beaten by Wests in round one last year, and look where both ended up! Speaking of Wests, they won a dour struggle 12-6 over Cronulla, and satisfied many punters as well as they were solid in the betting at $2.25. The Sharks made some horrible mistakes in this game, and were extremely fortunate to be given the one try that they scored anyway, it looks like the Sharks still have a lot of work to do if they are to be a force this year. Late money arrived for the Bulldogs to beat Parramatta, and at least we didn't have to endure 80 nail biting minutes before we lost! The Eels were pathetic, and trailed 36-0 at half time before losing 48-14. Early in the week we saw good money for Parramatta, including two bets of $5000 and one of $8000 with the start, but game-day that all dried up. The Bulldogs had two bets of $20,000 placed on them conceding 3½ points start, and numerous win bets. The Cowboys had been one of the best backed sides of the round, but the gloss was taken off their defeat at the hands of Manly by a last minute bet of $29,000 for the Eagles with 8½ points start ($1.90). The Eagles were in plenty of trouble when behind 14-0 at half time, but capitalised on some shocking mistakes by the Cowboys to come away with the two points. Brisbane got home by 8 points over a well backed Warriors side ($2.25 into $2), which resulted in a small win, and then the Raiders nearly blew a big lead before a Trent Barrett error alllowed the Raiders to kick away and win 21-12. Surprisingly, this was the quietest game of the round. We had to wait until the last game for our big result, and things weren't looking too good when the Roosters went into the half time break with a lead of 18-2 over a gallant Souths side. The Roosters had been sensationally backed conceding 18½ points start, with bets of $40,000, $20,000 and $18,000 coming at that line, as well as a win bet of $60,000 at $1.08. Souths had hung in there, but were the 'walking wounded', and we were resigned to the fact that they were going to get hammered in the second half. To Souths credit, they played their hearts out, and for a fleeting moment looked a chance to at least get out of the game with a draw, but the Roosters scored again to win by 10 points. This week, as is always the case on any 'second round', was very difficult to price up. How much credence do you put on round one results? Well it has to make some difference, but more often than not there are anomalies. Friday night's game in the National Capital should be a beauty, and Canberra will go in as well backed favourites at $1.70. The Raiders were impressive against the Dragons, but we aren't writing off Penrith just yet. New Zealand return home to host the Dragons, with two punters at least thinking that the home side can be pushed to the limit. Bets of $12,000 and $7000 came in early trading for St George-Illawarra with 6½ points start, but the Warriors have some big multiples going through them to win the game at the $1.48. A rejuvenated Manly have been one of the best backed sides in early betting to not only get within 10 points of the Roosters, but also to win at $3.40. Close to $24,000 has been invested by three punters on Manly with the start, as well as a win bet of $4000. The Brookvale form of Manly was poor at the end of last season, and while they did win last week, the 14-0 half time scoreline must be a concern. Matt Orford has been named in the Melbourne Storm team, but the mail is that he is unlikely to play, so for that reason alone we have been eager to chase the Storm against the Knights. That was the plan, but Melbourne have been virtually unlayable at $2.55, while two $5000 bets have come for Newcastle conceding 5½ points start. The Brisbane Bronco's, the side that many (including us!) thought might struggle in 2004, have also attracted a sizeable wager early this week. A Sydney punter has plonked $15,000 on the Bronco's at -8½ ($1.90) against Parramatta. The Eels have been copping a battering in the press this week, both with Jamie Lyons' retirement and the display against the Bulldogs, but we are pinning our faith in a fine record against Brisbane. CRICKET Public perception is a wonderful media tool, and it was interesting to see what angle the public took on England's win over the West Indies early this week. We were in a lot of trouble with the draw on this match, having taken a $40,000 bet at $2.25 the day the match started. There wasn't a lot of interest in it, but the draw was always well in commission, going into the fourth day at $1.60. We have all either seen or read what happened next, with the Windies bundled out for a meager 47 runs, handing England a win. With all due respect to the Poms, they don't have the greatest bowling attack on earth, yet there was hardly a ripple caused as a result of the match. Imagine if Pakistan had been all out for 47 runs in the second innings, the public and the press would have had a field day with insinuations, yet because it is the West Indies, the talk has been 'the West Indies are capable of that'. In any case, we were glad that the Windies did collapse, as it compensated us for the drawn test in New Zealand. Again our Indian punters were very active on this game with one placing a total of $80,000 on a draw in three separate bets, averaging $1.80 for his money. We didn't have too much trouble laying South Africa, either before the match started at $2.25, or after day one at the same price. The two largest bets came from Australia, $20,000 before the start of play, and $13,000 after the completion of the first days play. Normally we see plenty of money come from New Zealand for their side, but the Kiwi's kept out of this game, a smart move! The second test got under way this morning (Thur) at Eden Park in Auckland. The fickle New Zealand weather was again the reason for a push for the draw from the Sub Continent, led up by a bet of $10,000 at $2.25. One of our regular cricket followers from Sydney has had $4000 on South Africa at $3, while our New Zealand punters think that they can win this one, with several good bets coming our way for NZ at $3.50. This test will be updated at the end of each session. Currently, we are deep into the second test between Sri Lanka and Australia, and Shane Warne achieving 500 test victims has ensured that this series has been in the news, and that has resulted in a stack of interest. This match saw a barrage of big bets come in before it started, including $USD 40,000 for the draw at $2.50, $20,000, $10,000 and $6000 for Australia at $2.20, and two $4000 bets for Sri Lanka at $4.85. This test took the same path as the first, with Sri Lanka getting into a short quote after bundling the Aussies out for 120 in the first innings, before they went on to make 211.This allowed us to 'balance the book' with some serious money arriving for Sri Lanka, including one bet of $15,000 at $2.50, so we can sit back and look forward to another Aussie win. Finally, wasn't it fantastic to see Victoria win the Pura Cup? After all the events of the past few months, the Vic’s kept their composure right until the end, setting the Queenslanders 710 runs in the first innings, a total they were never going to get. The rules of the game meant that Victoria only had to draw to win the Cup, and those who criticised them for batting on must be kidding! GOLF While last week provided a surprise result at the Honda Classic with Todd Hamilton defeating Davis Love by a shot after completing birdies at the 17th and 18th holes, what may have been of more significance was the emergence of a potential star in Kevin Na, a twenty year old tour rookie. Hamilton's win was not a complete surprise having won four times on the Japanese tour last year and finishing third on the Japan Golf Tour official money list for 2003, and although winning in your rookie year is not common practice in Hamilton’s case it was hardly surprising. Keeping level headed down the stretch and playing fine shots such as his eight iron into the 72nd hole can only be achieved through the art of winning. Not so with Kevin Na, the youngest player on the PGA tour, whose closing round three under par 69 catapulted him into a tie for fourth, three shots behind winner Todd Hamilton. This is Na's best finish at only his eleventh start on the tour and better things are expected of this Korean born youngster. This week we head to Florida for the Tiger Woods Invitational, formally known as the Bay Hill Invitational. Woods has been so dominant in this event, having won the last four that he deserves naming rights and although that won't happen, the fact that he has been installed favourite at $3.65 in a star studded field suggests a fifth straight title is a strong probability. Ernie Els, $9, Vijay Singh, $10 and Davis Love, $11, are all expected to make it a difficult assignment for the world’s number one but Woods' form here is so impeccable that you cannot tip against him. Best backed to cause an upset have been Fredrick Jacobson, $51, following three top tens from six starts this season and Scott Verplank, $41 after a second at the Ford Championship at Doral two weeks ago, both backed to win more than $30,000 by a client from Sydney. No doubt that the quality of this field can produce an upset but either way expect Woods' name to feature prominently at the end of the week. On the European tour Joakim Haeggman won his first European tour event in seven years when he closed with a scintillating seven under par 65 to snatch victory in the Qatar Masters. A stroke behind was Japan's Nobuhito Sato with a further stroke back to consistent performers Raphael Jacquelin and Brian Davis along with Spaniard Jose Lara. It was a fitting end to a tournament where only six strokes separated eighty-five players at the completion of two rounds. We remain in Asia this week for the Caltex Masters of Singapore where defending champion, China's Lian-Wei Zhang has been sent out at $41. Favourite here is New Zealander Michael Campbell at $11 from Thongchai Jaidee at $12, Colin Montgomerie at $13, Raphael Jacquelin, $15 and last weeks winner Joakim Haeggman at $23. Betting on this event has not reached expectations with best supported being Prayad Marksaeng at $34 and Englishman James Kingston at $51. The LPGA tour kicked off last week with an Annika ‘Sorenstamless’ Welchs/Fry Championship in Arizona. A surprise result ensued with Karen Stupples winning her first LPGA event from Korean Grace Park and Jung Yeon Lee of China, with more fancied players such as Se Ri Pak and Karrie Webb failing to have an impact on the event. This week Sorenstam returns and has been installed $2.65 favourite over Se Ri Pak at $10 and Grace Park at $12. This event has a lot more depth at the top of the betting so a surprise result is not expected. BASKETBALL NBL After 206 games of NBL the two best teams have been determined and Sydney and West Sydney now prepare to square off in a "Best of Five" Grand Final series. There is no shortage of preparation time either as we now have to wait until next Wednesday 24th until Game 1 tips off. The contentious finals format has come through it's trial without too many complaints but it would have been otherwise if both the top ranked teams had been knocked out in the semi finals. As it stands now the only result to go against the seedings was the one that matched up the 2nd and 3rd seeds and that could hardly be considered a major upset. It is difficult to argue with claims that Sydney is now Australia's premier sporting city. As a result of hosting the Olympics, state-of-the-art sporting facilities abound, the Waratahs head up the Super 12 table, Sydney's league teams are set to dominate, the Swans are ready to improve on last season's preliminary final appearance and now the only two Sydney sides will meet in the NBL Grand Final. Whatever happened to the days when it was a foregone conclusion that one, if not both Grand Finalists would be Melbourne based? They were the same days when more than two Victorian based clubs could make the AFL finals. It seems so long ago. Whatever the result, West Sydney have to be admired for simply making the Grand Final. Salary cap reductions led to them releasing, Rucker and Farley at the end of last season and making the decision to go with an All Australian line-up. I can't remember the last time a club has played the entire season without imports and here they are on the verge of the ultimate success. Bruce Bolden's retirement can also be added to the exodus of personnel and the only significant addition has been Australian junior representative, Steve Markovic. The reigning Champion, Sydney had a huge turnover of personnel, basically retaining only three key members of last year's team, Nielsen, Stiff and Sheridan. This didn't stop Goorjian's streak of semi-finals or better which is unbroken since 1990. The replacements were proven players and there was little doubt from the start that this was a team capable of going all the way again. Jason Smith's injury stopped their early season momentum but with room to move under the cap and only having one import they recruited ex Duke player, Chris Carrawell who has proven to be a more than adequate addition. Despite Goorjian claiming to be taken out of context, this series is very much shaping up as the "City Rich Kids v Western Suburbs Have-nots", that Goorjian alluded to earlier in the season. Sydney held sway in their meetings throughout the season winning the series 2-1 which included a 104-78 victory in Round 21 at West Sydney. WHY WEST SYDNEY CAN WIN: The Razorbacks have really stepped it up during the play-offs. Rillie, Dwight, Trahair and Hinder have all improved on their season scoring average during their 3 play-off appearances. Rillie has improved his 19.4 points/game average to over 30, and he is playing on another planet right now. If he doesn't come back to Earth there will be some new jewellery out West. WHY THEY CAN'T: They are relying on too few to do too much. MacGregor's injury has hurt their depth and unless the NBL allow them a last minute reprieve and re-instate him to their roster they will get worn down by a Sydney side which have more numbers and more quality on their bench. Rillie has averaged just 12 points/game v the Kings this season. WHY SYDNEY CAN WIN: If ever they were going to be beat it was when they trailed Brisbane by 23 at the half and 18 just into the last quarter in Game 1. A team with that much self belief is too hard to stop. Brisbane threw their best at them and had the triple outside threat of Rucker, Black and Castle all firing and it still wasn't enough. It is difficult to see Rillie and Trahair being able to do what those three couldn't. Hinder (West Sydney) is on the steepest of improvement curves but again he and Dwight are only at best the equal of Brisbane's Brannen and Helliwell and the Kings dealt with them. WHY SYDNEY CAN'T WIN: Rillie will keep shooting the lights out and the Kings might get an injury or two and if it gets to a sudden-death 5th game a bit of luck or a bad call here or there might beat them. VERDICT: Kings to win the series 3 games to 2 with one game going to overtime. Some series betting options are available with the exact series result of the Kings winning 3-2 being priced at $3.90. One game only going to overtime is available at $5.00 but if you think a close series is likely and more than 1 game will require O/T to separate these Sydney teams the big odds of $26 should be taken. NBA Just what has been happening in the NBA these past few days? The dominant teams from the West seem to have lost focus at this late stage of the season. The Lakers now have everyone fit and healthy and are expected to steamroll all opposition, especially when they are at home and especially when they are playing struggling Eastern Conference teams. It was just that somebody forgot to give Orlando a copy of the script. The Lakers trailed by 15 at 3QT and needed every one of those final 12 minutes to take the game to O/T where they managed to secure a narrow victory. Dallas were hosting another struggling Eastern Conference team in Atlanta and as a 16 point favourite could have been expected to get away with a victory of some sorts. It wasn't to be however as they fell 25 points behind by half-time and as good as they could do was reduce the margin to 1 point as the final buzzer sounded. Sacramento headed East this week and suffered losses on consecutive days. Whilst the loss to New Jersey may have been excusable the margin of 17 points wasn't if this team has pretensions of winning it all. Backing up again the next day against lowly Washington it was fully expected by all that they would get back to their winning ways but that wasn't to be as Washington overpowered them in the second half to record a 6 point victory. The implications of these two losses could be enormous for the Kings as the Indiana Pacers are now very well placed to end the season with the best record in the NBA which would mean home court advantage in the Championship series should they get that far. The last time an Eastern Conference team had home court advantage in the Championship series was in the 1996-97 season when the dominant team of that era, the Chicago Bulls, had that honour. RUGBY UNION Round four of Super 12 rugby produced four results with only one favourite being successful, the Hurricanes over the Cats in Wellington. In other results the Sharks snatched a last minute try to defeat the Highlanders 36-35, the Reds proved too organized for a Carlos ‘Spencerless’ Blues unit prevailing 20-3 while in South Africa the Australian sides both tasted defeat with the Bulls proving too powerful for the Brumbies in Pretoria 32-21 while the Stormers jumped the Waratahs to lead 20-0 before snatching an exciting win 27-23. This week the first of five games kicks off on Friday night in Wellington where the Hurricanes host the Sharks, giving them 8½ points at $1.90 and at the short price of $1.35. The Sharks receive the start and are good value at $3.15 to win the game considering the injury cloud over Hurricanes captain Tana Umaga. The second game on Friday night at Pretoria should be a hum dinger with the travelling Waratahs declaring scant respect to the Bulls forwards. The Waratahs are $1.68 favourites and must concede 2½ points at $1.90, while the Bulls fresh from a mauling of the Brumbies are $2.15. On Saturday night the Highlanders host the Cats in Dunedin and must concede 16½ points at $1.90, followed by the game of the round, where the Chiefs host the Crusaders in Hamilton and receive 5½ points at $1.90 and are at the win quote of $2.50, the Crusaders $1.50. Punters have already signaled their intention on this game with our first wager being $10,000 on the Chiefs receiving the start from a New Zealand client followed by $10,000 on the Crusaders from a local client in Adelaide. The final game in Cape Town has the improving Stormers hosting the Brumbies, receiving 2½ points start at $1.90 and $2.15 to win the game, the Brumbies $1.68 in from $1.70. This should also be a crackerjack game, played in good conditions which should see the best of both sides attacking backlines, however with Selbon Boome out for the Stormers the Brumbies should hold the edge at the line-outs. Championship betting has been thrown into chaos with recent results. The Waratahs favourites at $3.25 from the Blues at $4, the Crusaders at $5 and the Brumbies $5.50 round out the top of the betting with the Hurricanes the only other team given a realistic chance of making the finals. Six Nations fixtures this week has produced three prohibitive priced favourites, none of whom are expected to suffer defeats but with this weeks weather predicted to be poor perhaps covering the margins may be a different proposition. First Ireland tackle Italy at Landsdowne Road and must concede 26½ points at $1.90 and are $1.02 to win, Italy $13. Second game on Saturday evening sees England host Wales at Twickenham. England are $1.05 to win and following one $10,000 wager from a UK client conceding 21½ points at $1.90 have now firmed into 22½ point favourites. The final game on Sunday has Scotland hosting France at Murrayfield. France are $1.08 and must concede 17½ points at $1.90, Scotland, whose record at home against France is solid may represent value at $7.50 and at the start. FORMULA ONE Ferrari absolutely dominated the Australian Grand Prix with a 1-2 finish after securing the front row of the grid, and while Malaysia's steamy temperatures may suit those with the Michelin tyres, will it be enough to close the gap seen in Melbourne? Last year in Malaysia, Renault surprised everyone when Alonso and Trulli were quickest, which led them to the front row of the grid, but the race was eventually won by McLaren's Kimi Raikkonen. In 2002, Williams finished 1-2 in Sepang, so as can be seen, it hasn't always been a 'happy hunting ground' for Ferrari, and that is the only reason that Michael Schumacher isn't shorter than the $1.90 we are offering. Punters however disagree strongly as we have hardly seen any money for any other driver, but have taken bets of $8000, €3000 and $5000 for Schumacher to win. With Schumacher dominating the betting to win the race, many have turned their attention to the 'podium finish' bet option. Rubens Barrichello has attracted bets totalling $6000 to finish amongst the placings at $1.85, while the enigmatic Juan Pablo Montoya has had a bet of 2000 euros placed on him at $2.20 from one of our more astute Formula One punters. SOCCER Our new soccer betting option is proving an immediate hit with punters. We call it Draw No Bet and, as its name suggests, punters recover their stakes if the match on which they speculate does not produce a winning team. Punters could have backed a side to win and saved on the draw before Draw No Bet's introduction but it was a complicated process, particularly if the football fan wished to wager on more than one game. Now it is easy and, judging from the interest that Draw No Bet generated during the latest full round of English Premier League fixtures, punters will be back for more. As luck would have it, Draw No Bet debuted on a weekend in which there was not a single Premier League draw. The White Hart Lane fixture between Tottenham and Newcastle was goalless until four minutes from time when Magpies defender Andrew O'Brien put the ball into his team's net. Punters who backed Newcastle on our Draw No Bet market at $2 - United were $2.75 to win the match on our conventional head-to-head option - would have broke even had the Republic of Ireland international not scored at the wrong end of the pitch. Check out our Draw No Bet odds in the near future. Arsenal are single-figure odds to win the Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League treble after stretching its domestic championship lead to an enormous nine points. Milan are a prohibitive price to regain the Italian Serie A trophy following its away defeat of reigning title holder Juventus. The Rossoneri moved nine points clear of Juve with nine rounds to go. Roma are Milan's closest challengers but they are seven points off the pace. We are quoting similar odds on Bremen securing the German Bundesliga crown after they extended their lead over Bayern to nine points with 10 matches remaining. The fat lady is clearing her throat. Real Madrid gave away ground for the second weekend in a row but we believe that the Meringues will retain the Spanish Primera Division title. Such is Real's reputation that even a nightmare draw is insufficient for us to remove the nine-time European soccer kings from top spot on our Champions League lists. The Meringues must beat French fancies Monaco and the winner of the all-Premier League quarter-final between Arsenal and Chelsea to qualify for the final. UEFA Cup favourites Barcelona, Internazionale, Roma and Valencia have left themselves mountains to climb after failing to score in their respective away first legs. Barca lost 1-0 to Celtic, Inter drew 0-0 with Benfica, Roma crashed to a 2-0 defeat against Villarreal and Valencia slumped to a 1-0 loss versus Genclerbirligi on a night of stunning upsets. We chose not to promote any of the first leg winners, most notably Newcastle, above the four superpowers. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
