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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES 'Real footy' is back!! The 2004 AFL season gets under way on Friday night, and while Collingwood, second fav's for the flag at $7, go into this match as the team to beat at $1.70, there has been a good push for Richmond from a group of Victorian punters. As soon as betting opened on Monday, three bets of $2000 were placed on the Tigers at $2.10, and that support has continued through the week. Granted Collingwood have injury and suspension problems, but they did play in last year's Grand Final, and it is Richmond after all! Injuries and pre-season form are also the reason behind Hawthorn being such an attractive price ($1.70) against Melbourne on Saturday. The Hawks performed dismally in the Wizard Cup after being backed into favouritism to win the title, and remain one of the best backed sides to win the flag this year. A bad start last season cost them a place in the finals, and they would be aware of the importance of beating Melbourne. Early money has been for the Demons, but we haven't been flooded with requests at this stage. Fremantle is the 'banker' for almost all multiple bets for the round. The Dockers are $1.20 to beat Carlton, and with a home record like they have, it does look easy money. This week we have taken another bet of $10,000 for the Dockers to make the eight at $1.90, and a handful of bets totalling $2000 for them to win the premiership at $26. Even though we maintain that Brisbane will win a record-breaking fourth flag in a row, they are by no means 'good things' to beat Sydney on Saturday night. The Lions look likely to have Michael Voss in the starting line-up, but will be without forwards Alistair Lynch and Jonathon Brown, so you have to wonder who is going to kick their goals? That is enough for us to 'take on' Brisbane at the $1.33, and also at the -22˝, which has already been claimed with a bet of $5300. Geelong led St Kilda for most of the Wizard Cup final, but punters believe that their round one rematch will be a one-sided affair. We have got less than $100 out of Geelong ($2.60) in early trading, with St Kilda attracting all of the big money. That is a surprise as apart from the fact the Cats could have won that game two weeks ago, there has also been all the off field drama's surrounding St Kilda. Sunday's matches don't appear any easier either. Port ($1.40) are at home to Essendon, and on what we saw at the tail end of last season, Essendon must be a realistic chance of winning. The Adelaide Crows travel to the MCG to take on the Kangaroos, where the home side go in as slight underdogs at $2. This is a very difficult game to predict, and that has been reflected in the betting with bet numbers split down the middle for the two sides. In the other match, plenty of football experts have been prepared to say that the Western Bulldogs can beat the West Coast. At best, we give them a 'rough chance' only, and they don't appear to be any value at the $2.30 we are offering, however that price has been taken by two Victorians who outlaid $8000 between them for a Bulldogs win. Money is arriving from the West for the Eagles, not in this game, but to win the flag. This week, two bets of $1000 have gone on the Eagles to win the title at $16, and one of those punters also outlaid $1000 on Ben Cousins to win the Brownlow at $15. James Hird is now $13 co-favourite with Nathan Buckley to win the Brownlow as punters continue to get behind the Essendon captain. Others who have been backed over the past week include Simon Black ($1000 at $21), Nick Stevens ($500 each way at $67), Nick Dal Santo ($250 at $201) and the Sydney Swans' Nick Fosdike, who was the target of one Victorian who placed $600 a win and $200 a place at $401. To prove how open the Brownlow is, we have seen money for over 120 players so far. RUGBY LEAGUE The results from the second round of NRL were nearly a mirror image of the first round, three favourites won (all three covering), a well backed underdog winning the Friday night game, and punters coming off second best when the round was over. Canberra stopped as if shot on Friday night when Penrith ran in four tries in six minutes to win 34-18. In hindsight, that was probably on the cards as the Raiders had a Sunday/Friday schedule, and their last 15 minutes did show signs of a very tired side. The late money was all for Penrith, the outsiders, who firmed from $2.15 into $1.95. The failure of Trent Barrett to board the plane to Auckland saw betting go ballistic in the Warriors v Dragons match. The early money (including one bet of $12,000 at +6˝) had been for St George-Illawarra, but when Barrett was ruled out, the Warriors were cut to -9˝ point favourites. That was taken, with bets of $25,000 and $10,000, and even a move to 10 points didn't stop the flow of money. Many remembered what the Dragons had been able to do in similar situations last year (win when they couldn't) and we did take a bet of $11,000 for them with the start, as well as $2500 at $3.90. Two $40,000 bets were plonked on the Bulldogs conceding 12˝ and 13˝ points start against the Sharks, and the Bulldogs were also the anchor leg in a multiple bet of $65,000. It was cruel to see the Sharks beaten 24-20 after leading for most of the match, but at least they stayed inside the handicap. In a massive round of betting, another $40,000 bet was placed on Sunday, and both ourselves and the punter concerned got our moneys worth when it wasn't decided until 40 seconds from the finish. The Sydney based client had the bet on Newcastle conceding 5˝ points start to Melbourne, and in an extremely controversial match, the Knights held a 4 point lead with less than a minute to play. The Storm had to take a risk, and it all came undone when Russell Richardson scored to take the lead to 8. A great conversion by Andrew Johns saw the Knights win 36-26, but the game was much closer than the scoreline. Try as we might, it was a real struggle to find any decent sized bets for Brisbane against Parramatta. We pointed out last week that the Eels had a fantastic record against Brisbane, and that perhaps the battering that they had received in the press would be to their advantage. The other thing that was in their favour was that a question mark hung over the formline from the Bronco's v Warriors game, and while trying to line sides up on previous form has it's limitations, the poor performance by the Warriors against the Dragons gave us a little bit more confidence to take the Bronco's on. Unfortunately, apart from one bet of $15,000 early in the week, the win by the Eels wasn't the bonanza we were looking for. Punters continue to put rugby league's off field dramas to the side as betting on the third round has gone through the roof. Friday night's blockbuster between the Roosters and the Bulldogs has seen heavy action, led up by bets of $12,000 and $10,000 for the Bulldogs at $1.95. This is way to hard to pick, so we will let the punters dictate the market. The Cowboys are expected to redeem themselves with punters when they play Canberra Saturday night. After leading 14-0 against Manly, the Cowboys made several fundamental errors in the second half, eventually losing, much to the disgust of those who took the short odds. This week we posted North Queensland at $2.15, but bets of $20,000 and $6000 have forced us into a rethink, and they are now into $2. They are at home, but are coming off a bye! Wests v Brisbane is the betting game of the round. We were bombarded with money for Wests early in the week, including three bets of $10,000 with 6˝ points start, and while money is still coming for the Tigers, Bronco's fans are also out and about, with bets of $15,000 and $12,000 coming for them today. Historically, Wests are not a good side to be pinning too much faith in, but we see this as a game that they can definitely win. RUGBY UNION Last week provided a mixed bag of results in Super 12 Rugby with three of the five favourites being successful in round five. It proved a disappointing week betting wise as the Reds had a bye while the Waratahs and Brumbies travelled to South Africa, the different time zone discouraging punters. The Sharks provided the first upset of the round defeating the Hurricanes in Wellington 21-20. Our first wager on this game was $10,000 on the Canes from a New Zealand client at $1.40 but it did not take long for the money to dry up with money then coming for the Sharks at the 8˝ points start at $1.90, firming into 7˝ points by game time. What appeared to be a promising result fizzled out much the same as the Hurricanes efforts in the second half. The second game on Friday evening saw the Waratahs travel to Pretoria to take on the Bulls forward pack. The Waratahs opened 3˝ point favourites at $1.90 and $1.68 to win the game but with the weight of money for the home team, one wager of $10,000 at $2.25, the Tahs had drifted out to $1.68 and giving 2˝ points start at $1.90 by kick off, the 38-27 result to the Bulls not the scoreline bookmakers were looking for. The first game on Saturday was a quiet affair with the disappointing Hurricanes giving 16˝ points start at $1.90 to the Cats and $1.10 to win the game .The Hurricanes did disappoint as expected by bookmakers and punters alike and although winning 29-17 failed to cover the start. The final game for the weekend was in fact the main game but still failed to ignite punters interest. The Crusaders were too good for the Chiefs in Hamilton winning 36-15 covering what was an attracted start of 5˝ points at $1.90 while the second game saw the Brumbies travel to Cape Town to take on the Stormers without Selbon Boome and already a poor line-out record. The punters were on the mark with several bets on the Brumbies of $5,000 to win at $1.68 while our opening wager was $10,000 conceding 2˝ points at $1.90. By kick off they had firmed into $1.60 and conceding 3˝ points and proving too organized for the Stormers winning 33-15. Betting this week has been slow to begin also but these games are real contests and should provide some brisk betting by kick off. First game on Friday sees the Blues travel to Wellington to take on the Hurricanes and are $1.47 to win and must concede 5˝ points at $1.90 while on Saturday the Chiefs host the Waratahs in Hamilton and are receiving 3˝ points and $2.25 to win. The Waratahs are without Matt Rogers for the rest of the season and this game will go along way to determine how they cope without him. The key game this weekend as far as Australia is concerned is the local derby between the Brumbies and the Reds at Bruce Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The Reds have never defeated the Brumbies and with Captain Elton Flatley in doubt the task may be beyond them again. The Brumbies must give 10˝ points at $1.90 and are $1.30 to win the game, and with our first wager being $10,000 on the Brumbies to win, then I suspect if Flatley does not play that quote will start considerably shorter. On the Six Nations scene there were no surprises last week as far as the winners are concerned but only France covered the start as they defeated a disappointing Scotland at Murrayfield 31-0. In other games England prevailed over a dogged Wales 31-21 with two separate bets of $10,000 on England conceding 21˝ points at 1.90 staying in the bag while in the first game on Saturday evening Ireland were too strong for Italy, 19-3, in appalling conditions at Lansdowne Road, Dublin. The result of the Six Nations trophy now will be determined by the winner of the France v England game on Saturday evening in Paris. France must concede 2˝ points at $1.90 while they are $1.70 to win the game. If England are to retain the title then they must defeat France by seven points or more while Ireland, with the slimmest of hopes must rely on an England victory and defeat Scotland by in excess of fifty points - possible but not probable. CRICKET Shane Warne continues to keep cricket in the news, and even though the Aussies wrapped up an intriguing series with a win in the second test against Sri Lanka, the third test became a talking point as to whether or not Warne would break the wicket taking record. We joined in with a market on how he would go, and punters could bet on under 7 wickets for the match ($1.75), exactly eight ($4.50) which would have tied him up with Courtney Walsh, or nine and over ($3), which of course means a new record. Opinions were divided, but most of the bets we accepted were on Warne to break the record, and if he can continue on with his form of the first two tests, he can definitely get the job done. The wicket in Colombo is conducive to spin (surprise, surprise) as Muralitharan has twice taken nine wickets or more there, so the statistics say it can happen. Normally when the Aussies have already won a series, they rarely perform to their best in the 'dead rubbers', and punters have picked up on this. Sri Lanka were backed from $4.75 into $4 before the match started, with Australia out to $2.25. The largest bet on Australia was only $6000, but our Indian punters surfaced again to back the draw. A bet of $20,000 came at $2.75, closely followed by $USD20,000 at $2.60. The Australian's posted a healthy first day’s score, and have moved into odds on at $1.90, but that hasn't been taken as we continue to see money for the draw. The experts say that the pitch will break up on the final two days, hopefully they are right! Betting against the draws in cricket can be a profitable business over time. The draw was a warm favourite at different stages of betting in the first Sri Lanka test, was best backed before the second test started, and even this week we had another two cases where the draws were backed into 'odds on' but didn't eventuate, those being New Zealand v South Africa and the West Indies v England. The Indian punters dictate the market as they are the major players, and have always shown a penchant for the draws, but the attacking style (or questionable ability) of nearly all sides now has meant that a result is nearly always possible. The addition of lights at most major grounds, and the ability to make up lost time from previous days only makes it even harder for a draw to happen, which is why we are always prepared to make 'the draw' option in nearly all cricket matches our worst result. So there you have it, a free tip, always bet against the draw before a cricket match starts! GOLF Stuart Appleby now has some empathy for Greg Norman after his four shot lead with twelve holes to play, disintegrated under the pressure applied by Chad Campbell's flawless golf. Campbell captured his second PGA title, the Bay Hill Invitational after closing with a six under par 66, while Appleby bogeyed 14 and 17 and closed with a double on 18 to finish with a four over par 76, six shots adrift of Campbell. Norman held a six shot lead coming to the final round of the 1996 Masters before succumbing to the pressure applied by a relentless Nick Faldo, and although Appleby’s self destruction was not of the same significance as Normans, it will nevertheless add doubts to his confidence in closing out tournaments in the future. Other players who were well supported in this event such as Adam Scott, Scott Verplank and Shigeki Maruyama all had opportunities, and while featuring in the top ten never really ha d a winning chance. This week we head to TPC at Sawgrass in Florida for the Players Championship, an event which is only rated marginally behind the majors by its peers. Defending champion is Davis Love at $13, fresh from a narrow defeat at the Honda Classic two weeks ago and desperate to open his account for season 2004. Tiger Woods is favourite at $5.50, the longest opening quote for Woods in a tournament for some four years, while punters have unleashed an assault on Ernie Els $12, Vijay Singh, $13, Adam Scott, $34 and Darren Clarke, $51, all backed to win over $100,000. Mike Weir, current Masters champion has been the median of good support at $26, while Len Mattiace, $251, Jeff Maggert, $151 and Stuart Appleby, $51 have all had admirers at long odds. This promises to be an enthralling contest which may favour the longer hitters but expect a close finish as the young guns of the tour such as last weeks winner Chad Campbell attempt to close the gap on the elite of the game. On the European tour Colin Montgomerie captured his first title in more than sixteen months when he fired a final round seven under par 65 to overhaul third round leaders Greg Hanrahan and Barry Lane. Montgomerie trailed by four shots into the final round but his aggression and touch reminded the galleries of the Montgomerie of old as he pressured the leaders into fundamental errors. Lane compounded with a closing three over par 75 while Hanrahan hung in to finish second with an even par 72. Australian Nick O'Hern and Indian Jyoti Randhawa rattled home with 67 and 66 respectively to finish in a tie for third but all honours must go Montgomerie. This week the tour heads to the Santo da Serra Golf Club for the Madeira Island Open where Bradley Dredge is $8 to defend his maiden tour title. Last year he defeated Frederik Anderson of Sweden and Englishmen Brian Davis and Andrew Marshall by eight shots and has been backed to the exclusion of all other runners in an otherwise disappointing betting event. Martin Lafeber is second pick at $11 while consistent Englishmen John Bickerton and Steve Webster are on the third line at $17. Dredge has not been in the best of form of late so a surprise result could be in the making. On the LPGA tour Annika Sorenstam wasted no time to return to the winners circle when she decimated a top quality field in the Safeway International at Superstitious Mountain, Arizona. Sorenstam was clinical in dispatching players of the calibre of Se Ri Pak, Karrie Webb and Grace Park, with the only resistance coming from the diminutive Cristie Kerr who finished four shots adrift. Sorenstam's dominance has stifled betting against a similar field at the Kraft Nabisco this week. She has been solid at her opening quote of $2.25 from Pak at $9, Park at $13 and Webb at $17, all certainly value if you can see past Sorenstam which is becoming less frequent as each tournament passes. BASKETBALL We waited for what seemed to be an eternity for Game 1 to arrive. Whether it was the anticipation or the excellent basketball we had been treated throughout the finals or the fact that Game 1 was just plain ugly but whatever the reason this game was a disappointment. West Sydney simply could not find the basket early and Sydney were not much better on their way to the 2nd lowest opening quarter in Grand Final history. The Razorbacks only improved marginally and their 76 points was their lowest total for the season. West Sydney simply had too many players playing well below their best. Not that the Kings were a whole lot better. CJ Bruton was exceptional and Carrawell not far behind him but Sydney too have a lot of room for improvement. It was not only the players who were below their best. The game may not have gone to overtime but the referee’s evaluator would have been working overtime detailing errors and the post match evaluation would have gone long into the night. Enough of the negatives. Punters liked the option of Over 20 3's to be made in the match and snapped up the $2.65 and after a slow start were always feeling good about that choice. Bruton contributed 9 and the total for the match came to 23. Round 1 to punters! Somewhat surprisingly West Sydney were well supported with one bet of $5000 at $3.35 to win outright and numerous others at the +6˝. It will be very interesting to see if they are prepared to back up again in Game 2. I would be prepared to. They will open as a 2˝ point underdog at home where they have never lost a final. They will be content that they couldn't play worse than they did in Game 1 and were still a realistic chance of winning at three quarter time. They have identified rebounding as a key contributing factor in the loss and that is fixable. Rillie didn't like what was happening in Game 1 and can make amends. Finally the Razorbacks may have learnt that talking a good game leading up to it counts for nothing if they don't play a game to match. HARNESS RACING Gloucester Park, Perth will be the venue where this year's Inter Dominion will be decided on Friday night, and the barrier draw has made things very interesting. Local hope The Falcon Strike has been the favourite since betting opened, but did have an injury scare before last week's second round. He certainly wasn't knocked around in either the second or third heat, and from a favourable draw (barrier 6 off the front) maintains his place at the head of the market at $3.40. Most believe that the pacers drawn 1,2 and 3 will probably get crossed by Buck The Odds ($21), who in turn is likely to hand up the lead to the favourite. Second elect Mister DG ($3.50) could end up anywhere from barrier 3, but does look set to have a tough run, hence the reasoning behind his price drift. Grand Circuit veteran Double Identity is a good chance to wind up with a good trail from barrier 2, and has been backed accordingly this week. The $7 on offer has been taken by bets of $1000 and $800, as well as a $3000 to finish in the placings at $2.20. Jofess has drawn barrier one, and we have taken plenty of bets for him at $8, but the big concern with Jofess is that he galloped from the same barrier last week when trying to hold the others out. If the tactics are to 'go back' at the start to make sure that doesn't happen again, he could end up three or four back on the fence, not an ideal spot in an Inter final, or around the Perth track. Sokyola has had a marvellous season, and is another who has met with heavy backing at $7. In the first 36 hours of betting, Sokyola has been backed to win close to $20,000, and is a horse capable of winning irrespective of how the race will be run. These finals can be quite often run at a frenetic pace, and Sokyola is definitely the one to beat if that is the case. Another who will be suited if the race is run that way would be the Brian Hancock trained Country Way, a $23 chance in our market. Country Way has been right on the heels of the heat winners, and his style of racing is suited to plenty of speed up front. RACING The Lee Freedman trained Alinghi has firmed into $2.35 to win Saturday week's Golden Slipper following an impressive Sydney debut last weekend. Alinghi has been favourite since winning the Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield, and as recently as last week we took a bet of $9000 at $3.40 for her to win the Slipper in which she ran a faster time than the colts whom she will receive weight from in the Slipper. That support has continued into this week with another $2000 bet taken at the reduced odds. While Alinghi ran quick time to win on Saturday compared to the colts, it is highly likely that she will get well back in the big field. Charge Forward was equally as impressive, and occupies the second line of betting at $6, but punters haven't warmed to his chances yet. Dance Hero, winner of the Magic Millions in January, has been best backed outside the favourite, attracting a bet of $2500 last week at $9. Private Steer was anchored down last Saturday, but with a weight! advantage in the Doncaster, fully deserves the favouritism tag. We have Private Steer, who drops in weight, currently at $3.50, ahead of Grand Armee ($8) and Ambulance ($10) who failed to stay in the Ranvet last weekend for the Doncaster. Two runners who have had a sprinkling of support at longer odds have been Titanic Jack ($26- $15) and Kablamo ($41- $26). FORMULA ONE Not even the humid conditions of Sepang could put a halt to the domination of formula one by Michael Schumacher, and although the new season is only two races old, it is hard to see how the others are going to make any inroads into the hold that Ferrari have at the moment. Schumacher was never really tested as he cruised to a five second win over Juan Pablo Montoya, with Jenson Button holding out Rubens Barrichello to grab third placing. After qualifying the quickest, Schumacher firmed into $1.60, but early shoppers had launched into the $1.90 early in the week, so it was a bad result. Ordinary qualifying performances by most of the 'name' drivers didn't help as punters steered clear of practically all bar Kimi Raikkonen. We did manage to claw something back on our podium finish option as well as the race head to heads. It was Rubens Barrichello's unplaced effort which helped as the two biggest bets were $6000 and $5000 for him to finish top three, as well as a bet of $7300 to beat home Montoya at $1.75. Schumacher is now a raging $1.28 chance to win the Drivers Championship, and already it looks as though only a major catastrophe will stop that from happening. Montoya is second choice at $6, ahead of Barrichello at $11. SOCCER Leeds are our English Premier League relegation second favourites following their 2-1 home defeat of Manchester City in which one of Centrebet's compatriots scored United's winning goal from the spot. Mark Viduka's 76th-minute penalty, awarded after Blues defender Daniel van Buyten felled Whites forward Alan Smith in the area, helped Eddie Gray's side climb off the foot of the Premier League ladder. But Leeds remain very short odds for the drop as only one team - Southampton in 1995-96 - have picked up fewer than 26 points in their first 29 Premier League matches and yet avoided relegation. We think that three of Leeds, Leicester, Portsmouth and Wolverhampton will relinquish their top-flight status cards when the Premier League season concludes on May 16. The German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A and Premier League title races may be all over bar the shouting but the Spanish Primera Division championship is up for grabs following Real Madrid's latest domestic setback. We were close to suspending our Primera Division book at the start of the month when the Meringues led the way by eight points with just 12 rounds remaining. Since then Real have picked up two points from three matches and seen their lead diminish to one point. Perhaps crucially, the Meringues have a tougher run-in than their main title rivals, Valencia. Real must play four of the current top seven, including Barcelona at home and Deportivo away, in consecutive rounds. Only one of the top seven - Athletic - remain on Valencia's fixture list. It could be a thriller. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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