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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Bookies fought back in the second week of the Wizard Cup when only one favourite, the West Coast, were able to salute. Friday night's game in Tasmania was a quiet affair, and the Western Bulldogs came away with an upset win, defeating St Kilda by 11 points. The Saints were hot favourites at $1.25, but they did drift from $1.20 as we were looking for money for them. It was hard to find apart from two win bets of $5000, as well as a bet of $6600 for them to beat a 25 point handicap. On Saturday, the Kangaroos had plenty of support when 44 point victors over Port Adelaide, who didn't seem overly interested in getting a win. The Roos attracted bets of $8000 at $2.25, and three bets of $5000 with 8˝ points start, but in a spirited betting match, Port also drew some large bets including two of $10,000 at $1.70. Later that same night, it was all one way traffic in the West Coast v Collingwood match, with plenty of punters taking the $1.36 for the West Coast (including one bet of $12,000 ), as well as two bets of $5000 to beat a 20 point handicap. The Magpies were severely under-manned, and copped a 51 point drubbing. Melbourne were $1.65 into $1.45 to beat Carlton on Sunday, and although the Demons were close to full strength, they were never really in it. The support that came last week for Carlton to make the final eight this year has continued with another $4000 in bets coming this week at $2.50, and the Blues have also been backed to win nearly $50,000 in premiership betting at $34. The Eagles are the big movers again, now into $8. They have been the biggest ever 'go' before a season starts, and on face value look mighty hard to beat. They smashed Collingwood without some key players, and Chris Judd had a quiet night. There is no money at all for the two fav's, Port ($4.25) and St Kilda ($4.75), but there are some obvious reasons for that, those being questionable pre-season form, and also their followers are used to getting much bigger prices. It only takes one injury to a key player and premiership aspirations can disappear, and with the finals format the way it is these days, a good price is nearly always available even during the finals series. Just as bookies face a monster payout if the West Coast win, it will be decidedly worse in Daniel Wells wins the Brownlow. The agile Roo is now in to a best priced $26 after $201 was given only a month ago. Wells has been backed to win close to $250,000 with us, and was even backed to win another $18,000 last week. James Hird ($21) is another sneaking into the top section of the betting. In the past fortnight, bets of $1000 each way at $34 and $600 to win at $26 have seen the Essendon champions price cut to $21. The two semi finals of the Wizard Cup should see some settled betting now that the intentions of those left in it have been made clear. The West Coast go into Friday nights match at home as $1.36 to beat the Kangaroos, and will be looking for a lot of goals so that they can host the final the following week. The other match looks an intriguing game with Carlton the favourites at $1.50, but the Bulldogs have admirers at $2.50. RUGBY LEAGUE The opening to season 2005 is only a little over a week away, and punters have been very active backing their favourite sides to win the premiership. Over the past few weeks we have made mention of the hefty wagers placed on both Brisbane and New Zealand, but the money hasn't only been confined to those sides this week. We have layed Parramatta ($15) to win close to $50,000, Manly ($67) to win $75,000, Souths to win $100,000 ($101) and Penrith to win close to $200,000, including one bet of $15,000 at $11. It hasn't only been premiership betting that has been hectic as we have also taken some big bets on other 'futures' options. Penrith attracted a bet of $20,000 to make the top four at $2.50, Manly have been backed to make the final eight with a series of bets including $20,000 at $4 and another $10,000 at $3.50, while we have also taken another bet of $10,000 for the Cowboys to make the finals at $1.60. Injuries and trial form have seen punters go cold on the Roosters and St George Illawarra, but we had previously taken a bet of $10,000 for the Roosters at $5.50. Betting on the first round will open on Wednesday at 10 am CST, and no doubt there will be plenty of action, especially the first game on the Friday night between Canterbury and the Dragons. RUGBY UNION The first round of Super 12 saw punters right on the money with every winner best backed and the super powers of the game flexing their muscles again. First match saw the Blues make a mockery of the 6˝ points start as they belted the Highlanders at the 'House of pain' 30-14. Punters were not entirely sure how the Blues would go without Howlett and a doubt on Carlos Spencer so money was not free flowing on this game, but what money there was for the Blues at $1.50. The second game on Friday saw the Waratahs run in four tries against the Chiefs, mostly due to the creative work of Matt Rogers. All monies were for the 'Tahs' at $1.28 including one $20,000 wager while punters were also keen to concede 10 points. The final game on the Friday night saw the Stormers get home 26-12 from the Sharks in front of their home crowd. Punters were keen to lay it on at $1.35 with also plenty on money conceding 8˝ points start, the largest wager of $5,000 coming from a client from South Africa. Three games, three favourites all covering. The Saturday games produced a mixed bag as far as results were concerned but not so far as where the money went. Firstly the Brumbies were too strong for the Crusaders in Canberra winning 32-21 on the back of some late money at $1.50 and conceding 5˝ points. While there was support for the visitors early that money dried up and was all one way traffic leading into the game. Just to make matters worse we laid a $10,000 bet on the Brumbies at halftime at $1.70. Sure they led by three, but with no Mortlock or Rathbone there appeared an area the Crusaders could exploit. Wrong. Then came the two results of the week. The Hurricanes backed from $2.10 into $1.95 against a hapless Queensland outfit and then the Cats, backed from $3 into $2.75 and all 7˝ points taken, against the disappointing Bulls. Hardly results. Well perhaps things may be turned around this week. The form is more exposed, so drawing a line through last years results, the punters should be more confused. Early games have the Blues 16˝ point favourites over the Reds and the Brumbies 15˝ point favourites over the Bulls. Given last weeks results both should win. The rest of the round is interesting however. The Stormers are 2˝ point and $1.70 favourites over the Highlanders in Invercargill. All early money is for the home team at $2.10 including one $10,000 wager from New Zealand. The Crusaders are 14˝ point favourites over an injury riddled Chiefs outfit while the games in South Africa should hold some interest. Firstly the Waratahs take on the Sharks in Durban and are $1.72 and must concede 2 ˝ points. One local punter has thrown his money where his mouth is and wagered $20,000 to say the impressive Waratahs can cover. We're not so sure. The final game in the wee hours of Sunday morning has the improved Cats pitted against the Umagaless Hurricanes. The visitors are $1.75 and must concede 2˝ points, the Cats are $2.05 with early money suggesting the home team may start shorter. One thing is certain, there will be some results this week in Super 12 rugby, maybe just not the ones expected. FORMULA ONE Punters have avoided Michael Schumacher like he has leprosy in this week's Australian Formula One Grand Prix. Schumacher is the easing favourite to win the season opener, now out to $2 from an opening $1.70. We have taken a couple of decent wagers including $3000 and €1000 at his current price, but the bulk of the betting has been against the German opening his campaign with a win. There has been plenty of media attention on the fact that Ferrari will go to Melbourne without their new cars, which apparently won’t be ready for another four or five races. That has mean that Schumacher and Rubens Barrichello have been using last years car which has been slightly modified, and the trial times have not been up to standard. McLaren have been tipped to be the big improvers, and the money would suggest that that will be the case. Kimi Raikkonen opened at $8, but a very astute group of Austrian punters stepped into that, backing the 'Flying Finn' to win close to $30,000, and we continue to see bets roll in at $5.50, at which price he is second pick. Raikonnen's team mate, the enigmatic Juan Pablo Montoya, has also proven popular at $7.50, attracting one large bet of €1000 at $9 from an Italian client. Giancarlo Fisichella in a Renault is another who has had heavy backing. After opening at $15, Fisichella is now into $11, and among the bigger bets have been €800 at $13, $1000 at $12, and also two separate bets of 2000 pounds to finish on the podium at $3.50. Aussie Mark Webber, in a Williams, has been 'talking down' his winning chances saying that their cars aren't ready yet, and punters have noted that as he has been extremely hard to sell at $17. In fact, at this stage of the betting last year, we had more out of Webber to win that event when he was a 100/1 outsider than we have this year at $17! It seems as though engine reliability is going to be the key to the winning chances of all drivers, and with a myriad of new rules surrounding the two qualifying sessions, it is quite possible that we may seem some strange names up at the front of the grid. The market for the V8's will be open on Thursday afternoon, and we are also covering the Celebrity race. Australian Iron Man champion Guy Andrews is the $2.50 favourite. He won this event back in the '90's, and has had plenty of experience with racing cars. He has to be a short price, and he is, at $2.25. Giant Olympian James Tomkins won the event last year, and is second pick at $4.50. The shortest priced female at $21 is another Olympian in Petria Thomas, and the 'bolter' of the field is Alexander Downer ($101), who will take his place in the field under controversial circumstances! There is a sector of the community that think the Treasurer would be better off in Canberra than tearing around the Albert Park circuit this week. GOLF David Toms once again proved that steady golf is successful in match play format when he defeated Chris DiMarco 6 and 5 in the final of the WGC Accenture Match Play Championship. The win is the most dominant result in the tournaments short but illustrious history, and his 18-5 record at La Costa is second only to Tiger Woods. Toms opened the final an overwhelming favourite at $1.62 with DiMarco a $2.35 outsider, and although the first bet we struck was $5,000 on DiMarco, the ensuing avalanche for Toms forced his starting price into $1.57 by tee off. With victories over Mickelson and Scott in the quarters and semis it was obvious that Toms was in sublime form, just how good was indicated as he raced six up after 18 holes in the morning, the afternoon round being just a formality. While Toms was a good result to win the tournament, the subsequent betting moves on the final was indicative of the week that was for Centrebet. Punters seemed to have a crystal ball when predicting the result, whether it was a win for Jay Haas ($3.25) over Vijay Singh or Robert Allenby ($1.50) over Thomas Levet. Favourite or roughie, they found it. The fortunes of punters betting habits also overflowed to two other events we offered last week. Australians Peter O'Malley and Geoff Ogilvy winning their respective tournaments in New Zealand and Arizona should have been cause for some jubilation on the home front, however both were our worse possible result. One resolute golf punter backed O'Malley to win $100,000 and Ogilvy to win $150,000 in a week where the bulk of the betting was channeled through the Accenture. It also took two play-offs and numerous missed opportunities for those results to eventuate, however both fell the wrong way to complete a disastrous week. And if all that wasn't enough, local heroine Karrie Webb was backed to win in excess of $30,000 at $5.50, to capture her fifth ANZ Ladies Masters title at Royal Pines Resort. She came from three shots behind Japanese sensation Ai Miyazato to close with a five under par 67 and a one shot victory. We may have got off to a dream start to the golf season, but this has proven to be a nightmare week. The PGA tour heats up this week with the Ford Championship at Doral. This event features thirteen of the top fourteen players in the world. The defending champion is Aussie Craig Parry, an $81 chance, however with the form the players from down under are showing an Aussie victory for three consecutive weeks on the PGA tour is not out of the question. Favourite is Tiger Woods at $5 ahead of Mickelson and Singh at $9 and Retief Goosen at $13. Best backed has been Goosen, David Toms ($19), Davis Love ($26), Stewart Cink ($29) and Ian Poulter ($81), all to win in excess of $150,000, and all solid performers last week at La Costa. Also specked has been Kevin Na and Joe Ogilvie at $101 after another consistent performance at last weeks Chrysler Classic, however with the class of this field the winner will need to be more brilliant than consistent. A point of interest. This event has produced some surprise winners in recent years including Michael Bradley and Joe Durant perhaps indicating the difficultly in backing up from the intense pressure which match-play format can produce. On the European scene we head to UAE for the Dubai Classic. Defending champion is Mark O'Meara, a surprise winner last year at forty-seven and an $81 chance to repeat the dose. Favourite is Ernie Els at $3.75 and backed to win in excess of $100,000 at that price, while also well supported is Spaniard Miguel Angel Jimenez at $14. Also in the betting is Englishman Lee Westwood ($14) and past winners Colin Montgomerie ($16), Thomas Bjorn ($21) and David Howell ($23) and all with a chance to regain the title. However it is Els with all the credentials for a victory. With two wins here, the last in '02 and a third and second placing in the subsequent two years, is it any wonder he is all the rage in the betting. Take into account that he has finished no further back than 6th in four starts this calendar year and you have the make up for a bold showing. Seeing Australians are on a roll perhaps a confident Richard Green may be able to keep the flag flying. ELECTIONS The polls were wrong, and the punters were right-again! The Western Australian election was being mooted as 'too close to call', or even in some quarters it was expected to be an upset win to the Colin Barnett led Coalition, but that was in contrast to what we were seeing in the betting activity, and once again the betting fluctuations were spot on the mark. The odds for Labor to be re-elected came crashing in from $1.40 at the start of the week to be $1.14 when we closed the book on Saturday morning. In that time, the Coalition blew from $2.70 out to $5, with the bulk of support for Labor coming after the Coalitions untimely 'blooper' in regards to their budget. The biggest bet for the campaign, which saw well over $500,000 wagered, was $100,000 two weeks ago for Labor at $1.45. We also took a bet of $40,000 early last week at $1.38, another of $40,000 on Friday at $1.20, with one last minute shopper joining up Saturday morning just in time to weigh in with a bet of $35,000 at $1.12. Although big drifters in the betting, we did manage to secure a couple of big bets for the Coalition, including $10,000 on Friday at $4, and one of $25,000 on Saturday at $5, both helping to cut our liability somewhat. The next big election will be the British General election, and one of the winning punters from the Western Australian election has placed $100,000 on Tony Blair being returned at $1.12! We mentioned last week that there has been, and will continue to be, big interest on the English election, but there has been enough support coming from that side of the world for the Conservatives at $5.50 to say that the $1.12 may not be too far over the odds. GREYHOUNDS The Australian Cup will be decided at The Meadows on Saturday night, and while several of the quicker greyhounds failed to make it through to the final, the box draw should see exciting youngster Pure Octane give leading trainer Darren McDonald another feature win. Pure Octane is suited from the inside draw, can lead or come from behind, and is super quick into the bargain. We have installed Pure Octane as favourite at $2.10 ahead of Zyrtec and Ayefell, both at $5.50. Both of those sprinters need to lead to win, as does Regal Ricky, drawn favourably out in box 8. Regal Ricky opened at $10, but has been backed to take out close to $15,000, as has Ben's Fury ($13) in box 7, with a sprinkling of interest in Oxley Tiger ($8), another who has to lead to win. Centrebet will also be covering the Australian Stayers Cup on the same program as the Australian Cup, as well as the Richmond Derby on Friday night. In the Stayers Cup, Malfoy impressed in an all the win in the heats at his first attempt over the longer journey. The Sydney trained sprinter/stayer is a deserved $1.55 favourite, and although we have already taken bets of $3000 and $2000 at that price, there is always a lingering doubt hanging over any dog at their second try over the distance. Tasmanian Supa Snoop ($5.50) ran on well for second last week, and does have the advantage of box one, while Something Wild ($13) put up a huge performance in a heat and looks capable of surprising. Stryker's Shadow has been installed fav at $2.25 to win the Derby after qualifying the quickest in 30.66.That was a quick run, but there is a strong chance that Stryker's Shadow may be in trouble getting across the field, so we are prepared to risk him. Gozo Master ($5) is definitely the one to beat now that he has drawn near the rails in box two. ENTERTAINMENT Tom Williams is now a very warm favourite at $1.66 to win Dancing with the Stars after another good performance on Tuesday night. It was a big shock to see Shane Gould go, and an even bigger shock that Home and Away star Jason Smith and 'Human Headline' Derryn Hinch are still there, but as we have pointed out before, this is more of a popularity contest at the moment. Williams has attracted nearly $4000 in bets over the past week, with second elect Holly Brisley ($3.25) drawing nearly half as much as that in bets. The price for Nikki Webster is blowing like the north wind, now out to $4.50 after being $2 three weeks ago, and although punters may have dropped off Nikki, we aren't prepared to write her off yet. Amazingly, in the past week we have taken more money for Suzie Wilkes ($21) and Ian Roberts ($101) than Nikki Webster, while Derryn Hinch is still there ( and that IS amazing ) at $21, along with Jason Smith ($21), who may well be popular with the voting public but did get a nice pasting from the judges the other night. The plot thickens on My Restaurant Rules as we all try and work out who 'the intruders' will replace. Two weeks ago, Melbourne was $15 and probably should have been closer to 100/1, but the boys have put things together nicely and now find themselves third favs at $4.50. Brisbane have been the standout so far, and most bets have been for them at $2.40, narrowly ahead of Sydney at $3, with both Adelaide and Perth out of favour at $7 and $11 respectively. We aren't betting on who will be replaced, but Perth would have to be the favourite. I'm not so sure it was a good idea to run with a 'set' menu when doing the dry run last week, and Andre's failure to turn up at the opening due to leaving his trousers at home was very amateurish. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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