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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
RUGBY LEAGUE The news this week was bad for Newcastle. The Knights were rocked by the news that they’d lost one of their major sponsors. While that was going on there was an Australia-wide plunge on Melbourne beating them at Olympic Park. As much as $1.47 was given in some quarters along with -6½-point start. We may’ve missed the early rush as we had assessed Melbourne shorter. However, by the end of the day we found ourselves laying the Storm at $1.35 with the handicap being -8½. In the first 24 hours of betting we only saw two bets come for Newcastle. When you analyze the strength or weakness of Newcastle maybe Melbourne should be even shorter than they are? The big clash on Friday night between the Bulldogs and St George Illawarra has turned into a fizzer from a betting perspective with the Dragons completely friendless. The Bulldogs opened at $1.28 and the handicap has moved from -9½ out to -10½ following $25,000 worth of bets coming for the premiers. Cronulla line up against Penrith at Toyota Park on Saturday night in a match we think they can win. Penrith have been solidly backed in this match with early bets of $9000 and $7500 coming for them giving up 2½-point start. The money has continued even after the handicap moved to 3½. The big betting game is on Sunday when Brisbane try and avenge their semi final defeat from last year. The Broncos go into this game as favourites but the betting has been evenly divided. We have taken two win bets for the Broncos of $5000 at $1.45 and another $4000 conceding 4½-points start. On the other side of the ledger there has been a bet of $10,000 placed on the Cowboys with the start and plenty of money coming from the Tropics for them to win at $2.75. Both the Cowboys and the Broncos continue to be backed in premiership betting. Brisbane are now into $9 following another two bets of $2000 this week. The Cowboys meantime are at $11. Penrith are the other side who has been backed to win a small fortune. However, the New Zealand Warriors are easily our worst result, having been backed to take out close to $500,000. Newcastle has had no support in premiership betting but we continue to see money for them to win the wooden spoon at $16. AFL After a couple of fine performances in the early rounds of the Wizard Cup, both the Kangaroos and Western Bulldogs suffered humiliating defeats on the weekend. To be fair to the Bulldogs they suffered several injuries, while the Kangaroos were simply several levels below the West Coast. The betting on the Carlton v Bulldogs match was extremely stable for most of the week with the Blues at $1.50 and the Bulldogs the outsiders at $2.50.The handicap of 13½ was hugely popular for both sides with the biggest winning bet being $7500 on Carlton, while the largest loser was a bet of $5000 for the Bulldogs. There was plenty of money to say the Roos could win in the West. They came in from an opening quote of $3.15 to start at $2.70. When the Eagles touched $1.45 we took two $10,000 wagers at that price. However, it was a good result for us as there was also money for the Kangaroos with the 15-point start. Now we have an interesting final. Had the big one been in Perth the Eagles would’ve been nearly unbackable but at the Telstra Dome the betting is much closer. The West Coast opened at $1.60 with Carlton at $2.25 and the first $10,000 wagered on the game has seen the bets evenly divided between the two clubs. The money for the West Coast to win the day premiership continues to pour in. Another $4000 worth of bets have come in this week at $7. There’s no interest in any other side at the moment. Should the Eagles have a big win against Carlton this week, we can only expect more of the same until the season gets underway. This week Carlton has attracted nearly $1500 worth of bets to win the premiership at $31. We think they’ll struggle when the “real” football begins. RUGBY UNION Round two of the Super 12 proved to be a nightmare for bookies with a majority of favourites winning on a great weekend for punters. The Blues were unimpressive against the Reds and won by three points in controversial circumstances following a bungle from match officials. However, the Reds did come in for some support with the handicap of 16½. The Highlanders were backed to win over $30,000 in their clash with the Stormers at the lucrative odds of $2.10. Mercifully for us though the match ended in a draw. A depleted Brumbies outfit was still favoured to get the cash at home and despite a few scares, managed to hold on for a two-point victory. The Bulls however, did have support at the 15 ½-point start and were backed to win $50,000. The Crusaders at $1.15 were backed to win $20,000 and also had strong support conceding the start. They duly saluted by 32 points giving a boost to the many multi-bets including a Canterbury win. The Waratahs showed they can win away from Aussie Stadium and were solid at $1.70 against the Sharks in Durban. The ‘Tahs’ also carried a $20,000 wager at -2½. This week has been a little quiet on the betting front with the Blues the best-backed team in head-to-head betting, as well as conceding the start. The Brumbies ($3.50) are now slight favourites to take the title ahead of the Crusaders ($4). The biggest movers have been the Hurricanes in from $11 to $9. CRICKET Australia may’ve won the One Day International series against New Zealand 5-0 but it hasn’t deterred some punters from thinking the Black Caps can re-group for the Test series. Nobody actually thinks the Kiwis will win the series but the fickle New Zealand weather has convinced many the draw is a definite possibility. One Indian punter took advantage of our opening quote of $4.25 for the draw. He stands to win close to $30,000. He also stands to win the same amount at $4. Punters didn’t stop there with a Melbourne client taking $3.50, while a new Indian customer got on at $3. As soon as Australia’s price got better than $1.47 we saw money come for them. Conversely we’ve laid one bet of $2,000 on the Kiwis at $11 and at this stage we’ll be happy to pay him. Locally, the last round of the Pura Cup is underway and three teams are still in the hunt to make the final. Queensland and Western Australia meet at the ‘Gabba’ with an outright victory giving either team the right to host the decider. The home team are favourites to take the points. New South Wales will be blessing the non-selection of Stuart MacGill for the tour of New Zealand. He could bowl them into the final with an outright win over Victoria at the SCG. Even the ‘dead’ game between South Australia and Tasmania in Adelaide has some meaning with the loser to collect the wooden spoon. The market suggests it’ll be the Redbacks. GOLF Is there a more sensational way to win a Golf tournament than Ernie Els’ effort to win the Dubai Desert Classic? Els claimed his third win in Dubai by holing a spectacular 22-foot eagle putt on the last hole and watched on as Miguel Angel Jimenez failed to hole a six footer to force a play-off. Both players had been backed to win in excess of $150,000. This week Els is again a hot favourite to take out the Qatar Masters even though he’s never played the course before. The ‘Big Easy’ has been backed to win $60,000 at his opening quote of $2.75 and is now into $2.50 as a result. Defending champ Joakim Haeggman may be the value bet at $41. Tiger Woods is back on top of the golfing tree following a tight and tense struggle with Phil Mickleson in the final round of the Ford Championship in Doral. Tiger has regained his world number one ranking and did have his supporters including one bet of $3,000 at $5. The majority favoured Goosen ($13), Toms ($19), Love($21) and Cink ($29) who were all backed to win in excess of $150,000. Mickleson and Vijay Singh were friendless despite their $9 quote. They ended up finishing second and equal third respectively. This week’s Honda Classic should prove to be an interesting event with no Tiger or Els in the field. Vijay is sure to be smarting after losing the number one ranking. Accordingly, he’s been heavily backed at $4.25 with punters set to collect over $150,000 should the Fijian bounce back. The ultra consistent David Toms is also a favourite with punters and has come in for strong support at $10. There’s also been a bit of money around for Chad Campbell at $21. Be warned, this event has a history of upset results with Todd Hamilton winning last year and Matt Kuchar victorious in 2002. BOXING The long awaited rematch between German Markus Beyer and Australian Danny Green will take place in Germany on Saturday night. The WBC Super Middleweight title bout is tipped to go the way of Green, who most thought was robbed of victory the first time. Consequently Green ($1.18) is a hot favourite to take the title, although some punters are treating this bout with great caution. We’ve already taken a bet of $20,000 for ‘The Green Machine’ at $1.25 and another of $40,000 at $1.20. Both came from Aussie punters. Beyer does have his supporters amongst our European clients. The largest bet on the champ being €1000 at $4.25. Since their first bout in August 2003, Green has had a convincing win over former champion Eric Lucas, while Beyer won a questionable decision against the same fighter. We can’t see anything but a win to Green and predict a KO. When it happens we’re all looking forward to when Anthony Mundine accepts to fight Green in the biggest betting bout this country has ever seen. BASKETBALL The best-of-five NBL Grand Final series tips off Friday with the number-one ranked Sydney Kings hosting the Wollongong Hawks. The teams are evenly matched with both progressing to the big one with a minimum of fuss. In assessing the team's championship credentials it is difficult to ignore their recent confrontations in rounds 20 and 21. Both times the Hawks emerged with the 'W'. Not only have the Hawks taken the honours this season, they have also won their series with the Kings for the past two seasons The Hawks consistently get contributions from their role players and are not intimidated by the Kings. Tellingly, King's coach Goorjian admitted after the most recent loss that his team is unable to execute their offence against the pressure defense of the Hawks. The wily coach will have searched for a solution but it remains to be seen if he has found the answer. The Kings, minus CJ Bruton, won the first meeting of the season. A win that may take on more significance should Bruton succumb to his knee injury. The Kings are also the two-time defending champs, while the Hawks have watched the recent deciders from the stands. With a fully fit squad the Kings have an edge in class and have the ability to gain the vital rebounding edge. If it gets to the fifth game, home-court advantage goes to Sydney, but our brave prediction is the Hawks in four. With the NBA entering the final quarter of the season it is no accident that the teams with the best record over the past 10 are the heavyweights; Detroit, Miami, San Antonio, Phoenix and Denver. The Nuggets are making an impressive, belated charge toward the post season, but it is safe to say the NBA Champions will come from the other four in-form teams. FORMULA 1 Mark Webber was right! The Australian Grand Prix was boring ... and costly as well! Betting opened two weeks ago with eventual race winner Giancarlo Fisichella one of the first backed. Surprised that Fisichella had had the best of the dismal qualifying conditions, and questioning the reliability of all cars in the race, we put Fisichella up at $3.50.With the Italian already a loser for us, we took further bets of €2500 and $2000 at that quote. He then won pole on Sunday drawing two more big bets of $4000 and a host of other smaller bets. At the other end of the grid Michael Schumacher’s reputation saw punters willing to bet that the German could pass the entire field despite the tight Albert Park circuit. Schumacher hovered around the $7 mark from Saturday onwards, then on Sunday morning a deluge of support - including one bet of $3000 and two others of $2000 - saw his price cut to $6. To our amazement and detriment we couldn’t find many takers for the champion finishing on the podium ($2.50) or indeed finishing in the points ($1.45). It made for unhappy faces when Schu eventually retired. Mark Webber also drew plenty of late support. By Sunday Webber was in to $13 following his favourable positioning on the grid. Ultimately, he was backed to win over $100,000. The largest bet of the F1 was $15,000 at $1.30 on Kimi Raikonnen finishing in the points. Raikonnen stalled on the grid following the warm-up lap giving our punter heart palpitations that multiplied when the McLaren driver was relegated to the back of the grid. The fact that Raikonnen was able to eventually pass the finish line in eighth spot was testimony to how quick the McLarens are. Overall, the wet conditions and new rules caused confusion for many punters who struggled to comprehend the abbreviated qualifying process. On Sunday the drivers added to the confusion by demonstrating their general lack of interest in posting quick qualifying times. Unfortunately, it all means the likely demise of one of our more popular betting options; the market on qualifying winner. Next up the F1 circus moves to Malaysia. Betting for the race at Sepang is scheduled to open on Monday evening. WINTER SPORTS Ole Einer Bjorndalen completed his back-to-back sprint and pursuit title in this year’s Biathlon World Championships by winning the men’s 12½ km pursuit biathlon in impressive fashion. Bjorndalen has now won the last eight biathlon races he’s competed in, a feat which has never been equaled and probably never will be. We were backed into a corner as Bjorndalen was backed from an opening quote of $2.25 into $1.65. One punter alone collected €7000. Bjorndalen hardly attracted any betting at all in Saturday’s sprint, but come Sunday it was a different story as nearly every bet was for him. In the women’s 15km Individual event one of the outsiders, German Andrea Henkel, notched up her first win of the season. Although she was at a healthy price of $34 few punters took the odds on offer. We were more than happy to pay on Henkel’s win as she ousted the heavily backed Olga Pyleva ($5), Sandrine Bailly ($6) and Anna Bogaliy ($10). Amazingly all three missed a podium finish. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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