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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES 'Real footy' returns this week and the first round of AFL is spread over a five day period. It's a really tough round to open proceedings, as evidenced by the price for all favourites to win which was 24.00 when betting opened. The West Coast host St Kilda tonight (Thurs) and having won their last three encounters, on top of a huge home ground advantage, the Eagles are warm 1.55 favourites. The Eagles have only lost one of their last 23 at Subiaco and while it can be extremely dangerous to read too much into trial form, St Kilda have seemingly struggled pre-season. There has been some interest shown in the Saints at 2.45 but the bulk of the weekend multis all kick off with the Eagles to win. Hawthorn have been tipped a strong chance to run last and Fremantle just as strong a chance to win the premiership, yet there is little between the two in Sunday's clash. This will be played at Aurora Stadium in Tasmania, a happy hunting ground for the Hawks. They have beaten Freo in all three outings there, probably why one of the first bets we took for the week was $5000 at 2.00. Favourite punters have launched into Melbourne as the good thing of the round. Practically every multi includes the Demons and there has also been a bet of $9000 for them to beat Carlton at 1.28. Monday's game should provide plenty of betting fireworks when Collingwood take on Adelaide at Telstra Dome. Adelaide have been backed for bundles to win the premiership and were really impressive throughout the NAB Cup. Their defence is second to none and we can't see how Collingwood will be able to score a big enough score to win. Punters disagree as of the first $15,000 bet on the game, $12,000 was for the Magpies at 2.30 and 2.25. FORMULA ONE Normally the Australian Grand Prix is the first race of the F1 season but with Melbourne holding the Commonwealth Games this year that ten year sequence was broken. So for the race in Melbourne, some form has already been exposed with two races already contested with Fernando Alonso winning the first and Giancarlo Fisichella the second. Alonso is currently favourite to win this week at 2.75 ahead of Kimi Raikonnen at 4.00 and Michael Schumacher at 5.50. We originally posted Schumacher at 6.50 but Aussie punters love the German. He was backed to take out close to $25,000 in the first 24 hours of betting. Mark Webber will be desperate to try and win his home GP and plenty think he can. We have taken dozens of bets for Webber to win at 21.00 and three bets of $2000 for him to finish on the podium at 4.50. Webber has copped plenty of criticism as he hasn't really taken the 'next step' in F1. His only placing was a third in Monaco in 2005 and he did finish sixth in Melbourne back in 2002. While Alonso, Schumacher and Webber have been popular with punters, second favourite Kimi Raikkonen has been virtually friendless at 4.00. Even his most ardent Finnish fans have dropped off Kimi, maybe because he is on the verge of getting his marching orders from McLaren but we are happy to have him a winner in our book. Fisichella has attracted one bet of $1000 to win at 7.00 while Felipe Massa and Nico Rosberg both 21.00 chances have been solidly backed to win the race as well. CELEBRITY CHALLENGE The Celebrity Challenge race prior to the Melbourne Grand Prix is always a lot of fun and there has been plenty of interest shown in this year’s race. There has been some fairly significant fluctuations to the opening prices with US Supercross Champion Carey Hart displacing Shawn Giles at the top of the market and a pretty good push coming for both Ross Stevenson and Steve Jacobs. Giles is a triple Australian Superbike champion and along with Hart, the speed of the race shouldn't be a factor. Carey has reportedly set the track alight at Sandown in trialing, which as seen his price cut from 3.25 into 2.25. While some say that the ratings of the Today Show may not be what they should be, there must be plenty of punters watching at least, with Channel 9 weatherman Steve Jacobs backed from 51.00 into 17.00. Ross Stevenson, Radio 3AW's long standing breakfast presenter, has had a legion of fans that have backed him from 34.00 into 15.00. Stevenson does have some 'form' as he was in the race once before, qualifying second quickest eight years ago. 'Amazing Race' presenter Phil Keoghan (11.00) will ensure that the race holds some interest for overseas viewers as well. RUGBY LEAGUE Punters definitely got the better of us following the horrendous results on round three of the NRL. Seven matches, seven favourites, with six of those winners also covering the handicap - it doesn't get much worse than that. Newcastle again showed why they are the title favourites by thumping the Bulldogs. As we said last week, all the money early in the week had been for the Knights but thankfully there was a late rally for the Dogs (two bets of $20,000 with six points start) which helped ease the pain. The New Zealand Warriors landed a decent sized plunge when they scored their first win of the season against the Tigers in Christchurch. If it wasn't for the fact that the Warriors struggle away from their home base at Ericsson then they would have been shorter. We thought they were a risk and paid the penalty. The largest winning bet was $22,000 at 1.80 before they shortened into 1.70. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the upcoming round is very difficult to sort out. We basically have four matches where either of the two teams playing could start favourites, and that often makes for poor betting games. This week is a little different however as there has been a stampede to get on the Cowboys, the Roosters and the Tigers in their respective games. The Cowboys will be without Ty Williams but that hasn't stopped two clients from each placing $10,000 on them to beat the Eels at 1.85. The big problem that the Eels face is that they are coming off a short preparation having played last Sunday. The Tigers have Benji Marshall back and Melbourne are coming off a bruising encounter when they lost to the Cowboys. Similar sized bets have been placed on the Tigers at 1.80 and they are now into 1.72. The Roosters travel to Brookvale on Saturday night, never an easy task. We are keen on the Sea Eagles and punters disagree, but that is what this caper is all about. Several bets totaling close to $40,000 have already gone on the Roosters to win at 1.80 so the weekend might rest on that result. CRICKET Much to our dismay Australia beat South Africa in the second Test to win another series. We always thought that this would be one series that the Aussies would struggle to win with Glen McGrath missing and the South Africans promising so much. Ricky Ponting found form with the bat but a lot of the credit must go to Brett Lee and Shane Warne for their relentless attack on the poor South African batsmen. Actually, we escaped relatively unscathed on the second Test thanks to some big bets arriving from India. We mentioned last week of the early money for the draw and that continued on throughout the match. Australia touched odds on several times during the match but the draw was always easy to sell. Coming into the last day, the draw was backed from 1.60 into 1.50 (biggest bet being $22,000 at 1.55) with bad weather reports around again, but the turning pitch was right up Shane Warne's alley. A lot of the gloss has now been taken off the third Test but quite often they become good betting matches. Many Australians are prepared to bet against the Aussies when a series is already wrapped up so we have seen plenty of early bets for South Africa at 4.50. There is so much feeling between these tow sides that we think Ricky Ponting and his boys will be out to bury South Africa once and for all and think that the Aussies are actually overpriced at 2.00. We have layed a few bets around the $2000 mark at that quote but again some of our Indian clients have been keen on the draw, including one bet of $10,000 at 3.00. MOTOR BIKES Loris Capirossi started favourite (2.75), and won the opening race of the MotoGP season in Spain at the weekend. That was a fairly common practice last year with the quickest qualifiers being well backed and winning. What made Capirossi's task even easier was that Valentino Rossi started from well back on the grid, and fell off on the first bend. Rossi was heavily backed at 2.80 including two bets of €4000. This was the first time in six years that Rossi had not won the season's opener, but although he was poor in qualifying, the speed he displayed catching the field should ensure some thrilling racing ahead. Daniel Pedrosa (11.00) and Nicky Hayden (17.00) filled the placings behind Capirossi with Pedrosa landing one bet of $3000 to be on the podium at 2.50. HARNESS RACING Natalie Rasmussen can drive herself into the history books on Sunday evening if she can steer Blacks a Fake to victory in the Interdominion Pacers Final. Rasmussen will be the first female to pilot an Interdominion winner and we have Blacks a Fake as a warm 1.80 favourite. Most of the business since the barrier draw has been for the favorite and it seems as though he may even start a little shorter. The general consensus is that whatever leads will hand up to the favourite in the first 400 metres, so that should be the end of the race, provided of course he doesn't get attacked for the lead. Second pick is Slipnslide (8.00) and the Queenslander looks the obvious choice if something goes wrong with the favourite. Slipnslide has drawn the outside of the second row and it is possible he could end up in the 'one one' position so we aren't overly keen to chase the price out. As the series has progressed another Queenslander, Be Good Johnny, has lost his mantle as the form horse of the Australian Grand Circuit. He raced like a very tired horse last Sunday and even though he has drawn the pole in the final he would need to improve his own weight to win. In saying that, we have taken bets of $500 and $250 each way at the $11.00. So it looks like he is going to be easy to sell at that price. DANCING WITH THE STARS Sooner or later it had to happen and Simone Warne was this week voted off the show. There is little doubt that Simone was immensely popular with the Australian public but now it must be Kate Langbroek who is feeling nervous. Kate has been in the bottom couple every week and while she hasn't been getting too many votes from the judges, her ongoing feud with Todd McKenney seems to have given her enough public support to just hang in there. Toby Allen has eased slightly to win overall now out to 2.10. In the last week we have taken nearly $3000 for Toby to win at 2.00 but Grant Denyer is the one emerging from the pack. We have taken a host of bets on Grant over the past month, mostly small, that have seen his price cut from 3.25 to 2.60. All of a sudden Jennifer Hawkins has fallen out of favour with punters and has blown out to 5.00. Until next week, good punting For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or centrebet@centrebet.com
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