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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet
Capers
Five of the seven favourites won last weekend, and even though all five also covered the spread, Centrebet managed to come out ahead in the battle with punters. And we may have been a little unlucky in two of those matches when the handicap "line" was covered by only half a point! The first of those was on Anzac Day when the Roosters defeated St George Illawarra 24-20. We were heavily committed with the Roosters, both to win and at the -3½ points. Some of the bigger bets included $12,000 and $7000 for the Roosters to win ($1.60), as well as $20,000 and $15,000 on them conceding 3½ points ($1.90). The match was an intense struggle, but the Dragons were storming home when referee Tony Archer inexplicably missed an obvious penalty when the Roosters infringed on the 10 metres. The Dragons only trailed by four points at that time, and looked certain to score, but it wasn't to be as the Roosters hung on to win 24-20. New Zealand's 20-10 win over the Melbourne Storm was also just enough for those who ploughed into the -9½ points. One of the league's biggest punters has been very active over the past two weeks, and he alone had $33,000 in four bets on the Kiwis. We also took a bet of $10,000 from New Zealand at the -9½, but fortunately for those punters Melbourne couldn't make any impact on their 10 point deficit even though they kept peppering the line. One of the seasons best spectacles was
also one of the largest betting games, and more importantly a good
result for us, when Brisbane scored a courageous 18-12 victory over
Newcastle. Brisbane landed two winning bets of $10,000 at +3½ ($1.90)
and also $7000 at the opening quote of +2½ points, but they were still
a massive result. Newcastle were backed from $1.70 into $1.58, led by a
syndicate of Sydney punters who placed a total of $29,000 on the
Knights. We also took a wager of $10,000 that Newcastle would lead at
half time and full time ($2.35), which wasn't looking too good when
Brisbane, after trailing at half time, then had Captain Gordon Tallis
"sin binned" for 10 minutes in the second half. You can never
write the Broncos off though, and they remain the only undefeated team
in the competition. The Sharks, and Centrebet, took a battering when the Bulldogs were backed from $2 into $1.57, and we knew we were in big trouble early in the match when Sharks pair David Peachey and Jason Stevens were lost to injury. The only consolation out of the win by the Bulldogs is that we haven't taken any huge money on them to win the title for which they are now a $5.50 chance. It's a real race, but unfortunately betting interest does "drop off" when we see several winning hopes with very little separating them. Newcastle and Parramatta head the betting at $3.50 ahead of Brisbane ($4), the Bulldogs ($5.50) and the Roosters, who have a few supporters at $13. Penrith have joined North Queensland in the betting for the wooden spoon. Both are now $3, but the worrying thing for the Panthers is that they are still winless, whereas the Cowboys are now on two wins. Splitting those two is Canberra with only one win, but they are at $6 and a chance to win this week. The Raiders are at home to the Sharks, and while Canberra have been thumped the past two weeks, cast your minds back to three weeks ago when Brisbane narrowly beat Canberra at Bruce Stadium. With Peachey and Stevens out of the Sharks side, they look a real good risk at the $1.70. We thought that the public would think that was an attractive quote, but we have only taken two decent bets, both of $5000. Souths face up to Brisbane on Friday night, and while we don't really expect them to win, we rate them a great chance of getting within the handicap of 13½ points. Lots of small bets have come for a South's win ($4.75), but we have taken early bets of $6600 and $5000 for Brisbane conceding the start. The Broncos will be without Alfie Langer, and that is a huge loss. A good betting contest looms on Sunday. New Zealand punters helped themselves to the $1.67 on offer for the Warriors to beat the Tigers, but a couple of Sydney's bigger league punters went the other way, placing just over $25,000 on the Tigers when betting opened. It is at Campbelltown, but we think that the ferocious forward pack of the Warriors will see them get the points. There has also been early trading on Parramatta to beat an 18 point handicap against North Qld. Bets of $8000, $6600 and $5000, all from Sydney, were placed on the Eels as soon as betting opened on Wednesday morning. [Australian Rules | AUSTRALIAN RULES] Australian Rules' punters must be the hardiest and most resilient of any group of punters in the world! After another round of monstrous upsets, they have got back up off the canvas, and have come at us again this week. Things got off to a terrific start to the weekend when Collingwood thrashed Essendon by 33 points on Anzac Day. We alluded to the fact last week that we thought Essendon were a "risk", and even when all found out that the match would be played in heavy rain, money still came for Essendon. Bets of $26.500 and $15,000 were placed on Essendon at $1.20, and punters also were prepared to concede the big start, which was 29 points. A Melbourne man had five separate bets, totaling just under $34,000, on Essendon to "cover" the spread, and he was never really a winning chance. On Friday night, the Bulldogs were backed as if the result was already known, but after leading at half time, were completely overwhelmed by Melbourne to win 104-81. After opening at $2.20, the Bulldogs started at $1.90, with the strange thing being that it was not a group of big bets that altered the price, just constant support from the public who thought the Bulldogs were due to chalk up win number one. Similar price fluctuations saw Hawthorn start a short price favourite over Richmond, but this time the money was on target. The Hawks opened at $2.10, but got into $1.75. We accepted $10,000 bets at $2.10 and $2, but then when Richmond announced "officially" (the whole world already knew!) that Matthew Richardson would still be out, the phones rang hot for Hawthorn. They cruised to a 42 point win, and Richmond are up to their old tricks again, "worldbeaters" one week, "easybeats" the next. For the second week in a row, one kick on the siren has meant a huge difference. Last round it was Daryn Cresswell and this week it was St Kilda's Daniel Wulf who had a chance to sink Sydney, but he hit the post to force a draw. St Kilda didn't deserve to lose the match, so I suppose a draw was a fitting result as the Swans had to work hard to hit the front in a shocking spectacle, but the kick to draw the match saved some punters big money. In football where there is no betting option for the draw, the bet is paid out at half of what the total return would have been, so the Victorian punter who placed $50,000 on the Swans at $1.20 got back $30,000. He was "fined" $20,000 as a result of the draw, but considering how the match was played, he is probably happy that that is all he lost. Two good teams and two good supporter bases is the recipe for a good betting game, and that's what transpired in Adelaide on Sunday night. This was one of the few occasions where it didn't matter who won, as Centrebet made a profit either way, so it was probably a "moral" victory when the favourites Port Adelaide won. Brisbane's winning streak came to a grinding halt when West Coast beat them by 46 points at Subiaco. Brisbane travelled west as $1.20 favourites, and besides being coupled up in several substantial multiple bets, we also took bets of $14,000 and $10,000 for them to win outright. The -29½ points was a little hard to sell, but a client from the sunshine state did plonk $7500 on the Lions to beat the handicap. This week, there have been several early moves. Injuries to Carlton have seen the win-less Bulldogs firm from $1.75 into $1.62, led up by a bet of $10,000 from a Melbourne man who bet against Carlton last week. Punters also think that the Kangaroos were lucky to win last week, and that Hawthorn are "back". $1.62 for Hawthorn seems very short, it has deterred many, and it's similar with Richmond to beat Adelaide. Richmond play Colonial Stadium well, but Adelaide have been terrific this season. Ironically, of the early money for Richmond, the biggest bet, $6500, has come from a South Australian client. One punter who took the short odds on offer for Brisbane last week has forgiven the Lions and placed $14,750 on them at $1.18 to beat a much improved Geelong. He has also coupled up the Lions with Port Adelaide ($1.24) to beat West Coast for a $10,000 wager. Brisbane still remain premiership favourites at $2.35, but to be quite honest how could you back any of these sides to win the premiership the way the competition is? There was another sensation in Brownlow
betting this week when second favourite Jason Akermanis was suspended.
That now means that first and second in last year's medal (Akermanis and
Andrew McLeod) are now ineligible this year. In a revamped market,
Nathan Buckley is favourite at $6 ahead of Brisbane's Simon Black ($8)
and Ben Cousins of the West Coast at $9. The ACT Brumbies are now out to $1.90 to make the semis of the Super 12 after plunging to their fourth defeat in a row. It was only a few weeks ago that the Brumbies were nearly that price to win the title, and their 25-18 loss to the Highlanders was a very good result for Centrebet. Lots of Kiwi punters took the start for the Highlanders (+9½), but bets of $10,000, $8000 and $6600 went on the Brumbies conceding that start. Win bets of $12,000 (from England) and $9000 were also placed on the Brumbies at $1.33, and their loss was the start of some pretty handy results for us. We got the near perfect result when the injury stricken Waratahs defeated the Hurricanes 19-13. A New Zealand client placed $15,000 on the Hurricanes to win at $3.25, and while we did accept a bet of $8000 for the Waratahs to win $1.33, the bulk of the money was on them conceding 8½ points start. A Brisbane client had the largest investment, that being $15,000, but he was closely followed by a South African who wagered $12,000 on the same option. The Hurricanes should have won as they slaughtered two try scoring opportunities late in the match, also probably ending any chance they had of making the finals. The early money was for the Queensland Reds to defeat the Sharks, but as concerns grew about the fitness of the Reds, the late trading was all one way traffic for the Sharks. The $1.70 for the Sharks was taken, and they got as short as $1.60 with one of the last bets being $6000, and that was from a Queensland based punter! The Reds put in a big performance to come from behind and win 30-29, but they face the acid test this week at home against the Waratahs. Both sides are "the walking wounded" after last weeks matches, but we have given slight favourtism to the Reds at $1.75. Surprisingly we haven't seen a lot of action on the match apart from a $4000 wager for the Reds. The Reds need a win, and possibly a bonus point, to try and secure a finals berth. A possible upset looms in Wellington on Saturday when the Hurricanes host the Crusaders. The Crusaders came from 24 points down against the Cats to snatch victory last week, so they look to be very risky conveyances against the Hurricanes. This is an even betting match with the action split between the Hurricanes at $2.30 and the Crusaders at $1.60. We expect that getting closer to the weekend, favourite backers will launch into the Crusaders, and we are prepared to take them on. The Crusaders however are now into
$1.75 to win the title as those around them start to stumble. The
Waratahs are $3.75, then we have the Reds and Brumbies at $9, the
Highlanders at $10, and the Blues at $11. Rocco Mediate's win in last weeks Greater Greensboro Classic saw a Sydney punter boost his bank account by $15,000 after he placed $400 each way at the opening quote of $31. Interest was evenly spread on this event, and it was Mark Calcavecchia, and then Mediate, who cleared out from the rest of the field. Calcavecchia would have been "all monies" for Centrebet, but it wasn't to be as Mediate raced away in the last round. Phil Mickelson is the $8 favourite ahead of Ernie Els ($9) in this week's Compaq Classic to be played in New Orleans. Plenty of our smaller golf punters have backed Mickelson, while we have taken a $2500 each way bet for Els from a New South Wales client. Defending Champ David Toms has admirers at $17, as does Charles Howell III ($26) and Scott Verplank at $29. Aussie Peter Lonard has been backed to win $25,000 at $67, with another outsider in Billy Andrade backed to win the same amount at the same odds. Favourite Sergio Garcia blitzed the
field to win the Spanish Open, his first big win on home soil. Punters
didn't find the $3.50 for Sergio very attractive, and his win was a
winning result for us. Annika Sorenstam is the $2.50 favourite
to win Chick-Fil a charity championship in Georgia beginning on
Thursday. Sorenstam has been in splendid form this year, but punters
have given the Swede a "wide berth", sticking with Se Ri Pak
($9) and Julie Inkster ($15). Ferrari's continue to dominate the Formula One scene with Michael Schumacher easily winning the Spanish Grand Prix. His team-mate Rubens Barrichello was second quickest in the qualifying trials, but didn't complete the race after stalling after the warm up lap. As reported last week, we couldn't find much action to win the event as both bookies and punters concede that Schumacher is just too quick. He started at $1.35 with Barrichello the second fav at $4.50, and these two heading up the markets is something we have become used to. Placings fell the right way when Juan Pablo Montoya and David Coulthard filled the other two spots on the podium. Two bets totaling $10,000 were placed on Montoya at $1.80 early in the week, but they were paid for by a $10,000 bet for Ralf Schumacher. Finnish clients jumped into Kimi Raikkonen at the $4.50 to finish on the podium, but he was out of the race after a couple of laps. Betting is already open on the Austrian
Grand Prix, and Schumacher is the long odds on favourite at $1.50 ahead
of Montoya and Barrichello at $5.50. Tohru Ukawa proved that Valentino Rossi
can be beaten when he sat on his tail and proved too strong in South
Africa two weeks ago. Ukawa is much shorter than the $26 we offered last
time, and will go into this week's Spanish Grand Prix on the third line
of betting at $7. There aren't many takers at that price, but we have
taken nearly $4000 in bets for Ukawa to finish on the podium at $1.80.
An Italian client has placed €2500 on Rossi to win at $1.50, but most
of the bigger money for the bikes arrives after the practice sessions. It wasn't too surprising to learn that
Katrina got shown the door in the Big Brother's second eviction. Katrina
was our $1.30 favourite, and although she landed a winning bet of $2000
at $1.50, it was Turkan ($3) who was our worst result. Betting on the Logies proved to be a profitable exercise for Centrebet. As expected, Georgie Parker won the Gold Logie and that was a winning event as Rove McManus was backed from $4 into $2.75. Peter Phelps, the outsider at $6, won the Most Popular Actor Award, and it was amazing to hear his acceptance speech begin with "I didn't have anything prepared to say because I saw Centrebet had me as an outsider". We have taken lots of bets on the
Eurovision Song Contest, where Sweden is the favourite at $4. Our market
is glaringly different from others, and punters have reacted. Germany
($6) has been backed to win $25,000, the United Kingdom ($12) to win a
similar amount, as has Denmark at $16. We have also taken bets of €2000
and €1000 for Germany ($2.10) to finish ahead of Sweden ($1.60), and
bets totaling nearly 30,000 DKK ($AUD 7500) to say that Denmark ($1.85)
will finish ahead of Finland. For those interested, go to eurovision.tv,
and you can listen to all the songs just as we did when assessing the
markets. One of the big soccer days of the year is approaching this weekend, and is there anybody out there who thinks Chelsea can beat Arsenal? The betting suggests not, as Chelsea have "eased" from $3 out to $3.25 following heavy betting for Arsenal. After opening at $2.20, two big bets from Singapore, $20,000 and $16,000 forced the price into $2.10, and that was taken by a German client with €10,000. One big thing in Arsenal's favour is that this season they have completely transformed their "away" form, and haven't lost a league match away from home, so going to Cardiff shouldn't be a problem. We will offer all the usual "exotic" bets, and have already taken two $5000 bets for the total to exceed 2½ goals. Punters copped a battering on the Premier League last weekend, but a couple of winning sides were well backed. Aston Villa landed two winning bets to the value of $20,000 at $1.85 when they defeated Southampton 2-1, and Man United were backed with a bet of 250,000NOK ($AUD 50,000) at $1.45. Man United actually drifted out to $1.50 in their match against Ipswich after the home side firmed from $7 into $5.50. The bulk of the money for Ipswich came from England, but Man United managed to scrape home 1-0 to keep their faint hopes of a title victory alive. Sunderland were a massive go against Charlton, but thankfully the match ended in a 2-2 draw. Sunderland opened at $3.35, and an Asian driven plunge forced their quote into $2.60. Several $10,000 bets were accepted, and we had nowhere to hide from the onslaught. Betting on matches at the end of any season can present a problem, as motivation is always an issue, but we got away with it on this occasion. Motivation won't be an issue for both
Inter Milan and Juventus when they play this weekend in Italy. Inter
lead the table by only one point from Juventus. Juventus ($1.18) have
what appears to be an easy assignment against Udinese, but Milan face up
to Lazio. This has been a great betting match as punters rightly
formulated the opinion Milan must win, so they have been very easy to
sell at $1.65. Feeling that that price is "under the odds",
others have bet the other way, with two of our more astute Italian
clients placing €3000 between them for Lazio to win, and another also
from Italy, placing a sizeable bet of $3500 on the draw at $4.
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