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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet
Capers
One and a half points doesn't sound like much in the overall scheme of things, but that was the difference in two matches of League at the weekend that saw Centrebet come out slightly behind instead of recording a big win. The half a point was most important in the Melbourne v Newcastle match. We posted the Knights as 7 ½ point favourites ($1.90), and that was backed into $1.70. Bets of $15,000 and $10,000 were taken conceding the 7½ points start, and one of the last bets taken was from New Zealand with that particular punter placing $20,000 on the Knights' handicap at $1.75. Newcastle looked set to record a big victory, but Melbourne fought back to reduce the margin to 8 points. The 36-28 scoreline in favour of Newcastle was a little flattering to Melbourne, but just enough to see punters collect. A controversial one point victory to Parramatta over North Queensland was also a costly result. The Eels were $1.08 to win outright, and we found a couple of punters who thought taking the short odds was "better than bank interest". Two Sydney punters placed $30,000 and $10,000 respectively on the Eels at $1.08, and they were very, very lucky to collect after Parramatta scored two points off a last minute penalty to win 20-19. While the win didn't cost much in money terms, the shortness of the price of Parramatta meant that the Cowboys were big winners in our ledger for a small risk. We also took a heap of money for Parramatta to beat the big handicap, led by one New South Wales client who came at us three times with bets totaling $33,000 for Parramatta conceding the start. We didn't have too many concerns in the Canberra v Sharks match as Canberra surged to a 36-10 win over the Sharks. The Sharks continued their poor form when David Peachey is out of the side, and although they "drifted" in the betting, we did try desperately to get some big money for the Sharks, and succeeded with a $25,000 wager at $1.75 from a New Zealand client. The 36-14 win by New Zealand over the West Tigers was also a winning result even though there was money for the Warriors. Bets of $10,000 and $7,500 were placed on New Zealand at $1.70, but they fell a long way short of close to $40,000 that was placed on the Tigers by a Sydney client. Inconsistent form is something synonymous with both the Northern Eagles and St George-Illawarra, and that was reflected in the betting on the lack of it, on their match on Sunday. The "live" Fox sports match is always the best betting match, but with these two matched up, it was easily the smallest betting affair, which went to the outsiders, the Northern Eagles, 22-18. The Eagles have been a bit of a revelation this season as they were tipped to run last, but although they won last week, they really face an uphill battle this week. The City v Country match on Friday, night will also interfere with the preparations of some sides, and the Eagles John Hopoate will have to back up against the Brisbane Broncos. It's also only 24 hours after the City/Country game, so it's not surprising the undefeated Broncos are 1.08. The Eagles are receiving 20½ points start, and we have only taken $6,000 for them at that start. We are tipping a landslide win for the Broncos. North Queensland favourites in a match? Another one of those rare occasions has surfaced this week when the Cowboys are at home to Wests Tigers, but some punters have disagreed with the market. As soon as Wests opened at $2.30, we took bets of $8,000, $4,000 and $3,300, which saw the price cut to $2.20. One can understand the apprehension to back the Cowboys at short odds, but their form over the past two weeks warrants them being favourites. The only home side receiving any start this week is the Sharks (+8½) against Parramatta. Early bets of $5,000 and $3,000 came for Parramatta on Tuesday at $1.40, but late in the week the trend has been for the Sharks with 8½ points start. Penrith, without Ryan Girdler, look vulnerable against the Bulldogs even though several Bulldogs players will have to back up from Friday night. The Panthers are still yet to win a game although they have been competitive the last two weeks, but the loss of Ryan Girdler is too big of a hole to fill. We have posted Penrith at $5, or +16½ points, and not surprisingly they have been very hard to sell. Newcastle remain premiership favourites at $3.25 while Penrith are now into $2.35 to win the Wooden Spoon. [Australian Rules | AUSTRALIAN RULES] We don't have any hard luck stories about matches being won or lost last weekend on the last kick of the match as all winners scored comprehensively with the smallest winning margin being 27 points. Six favourites won, all covering the spread, and while we had a good win when Essendon were beaten by Fremantle, it was a losing weekend. The big plunge on the Bulldogs to score their first win came off when they defeated Carlton 96-68. The Bulldogs started $1.55 after opening at $1.75 and we were hit with bets of $10,000 ($1.75), $10,000 at $1.70, and $23,000 at $1.65. There was also bundles of late money for Collingwood to beat a 33 point handicap against St Kilda on Friday night. We suspected punters would "drop off" St Kilda, and did move the line 3 points anyway, but in the hours leading up to the match we took close to $36,000 for Collingwood to beat the handicap, which they did easily in their 111-28 point victory. A few outsiders had support for the round, including Melbourne and West Coast, but both were easily defeated. A Melbourne man invested the largest bet on them Demons when he placed $16,000 on them with 6½ points start ($1.90), but as the match was in Sydney, regular Swan's supporters backed the Swans at $1.80. West Coast came in for a lot of support to beat Port Adelaide on Sunday. We took three individual bets of $5,000 for them to win at $4, and also $15,000 and $10,000 bets for the Eagles at +29½ points. This was the first time that we have seen Port Adelaide go around at home, at short odds, and really struggled to find any takers, but they showed with their 54 point win that they are back as a force. Essendon look to be in turmoil following long term injuries to Matthew Lloyd and James Hird, and punters are showing a reluctance to back them at short odds this week even though they are playing Carlton. Apart from one bet of $6,000 for Essendon to win at $1.30, and two $2,000 bets for them at -24½ points ($1.90), interest in the Bombers has been quiet. Now that Nathan Buckley has been given the green light to play for Collingwood this week, punters have launched into the $1.57 for the Magpies to beat the Bulldogs, but we rate the underdogs a real chance. Bets of $6,600 and $5,000 have been placed on Collingwood conceding 12 points start, and pretty close to $25,000 in bets for them to win outright. Hawthorn seem poor value at $1.45 against Geelong, and we have decided to take punters on in this match as well. The Hawks have been backed outright at $1.45, and have also been coupled up in a double of $12,000 with Brisbane. Brisbane were awesome against Geelong last week, but face Port Adelaide ($3.60) who are on the way up, and Port were one of the few sides who beat Brisbane last season. We have noticed that some of our bigger punters are prepared to take short odds Brisbane at home, and this week we have taken bets of $10,000 (from Qld), $8000 and $5000 (both from Victoria) for Brisbane to win at $1.28. The -26½ points has frightened most away, and in fact more money has been placed on Port with the start. Margin betting on the Melbourne v St Kilda game has seen traffic going only one way, and that has been for Melbourne. After opening at -40½, and avalanche of support has seen that move out two points, with the theory being the MCG is too big a ground for St Kilda to try their "flooding" of the backline. Another big defeat, and the Saints will be at unbackable odds to run last, that is if the $1.35 now on offer isn't already approaching that. Brisbane are now into $2.10 for the flag, with Essendon "blowing" out to $4.75. Big firmers have been Port Adelaide, into $6, and Hawthorn now an $11 chance. Barry Hall is now $2.75 to win the Coleman Medal (Matty Lloyd out to ($8), while Brisbane's Simon Black is $5 favourite for the Brownlow ahead of Nathan Buckley at $6. The injury to James Hird has seen him "drift" from $8 to $41, while Sydney veteran Paul Kelly has firmed dramatically into $17. Interest in the Brownlow has diminished markedly following the recent spate of injuries and suspensions, and we don't envisage a lot of action until nearing the end of the season. [Rugby Union | RUGBY UNION] Favourites won five of the six Super 12 matches last weekend, with the two that we decided look good risks, the Crusaders and the Brumbies, both scoring comprehensive victories. The Crusaders attracted late money, mostly from New Zealand, before they thrashed Wellington 48-20. Some of the bigger bets were $15,000 and $12,000 at $1.60, and also two $10,000 bets conceding 3½ points start. Kiwi punters were also to the fore on Friday night when the Highlanders won for the first time in Auckland. One New Zealand client placed $15,000 at $2.05, and another joined in late with $10,000 at $2, but we did really think they couldn't win. Wrong again! The same applied with the Brumbies. Everybody wanted to be on the Brumbies to snap out of their losing streak, and their 42-15 win was our worst Super 12 result for the season. We clawed something back when the Reds beat the Waratahs. Fully expecting a late surge for the Reds, we turned the price for the Waratahs out to $2.20, but all the late money was for the New South Wales side. One back for the bookies! This week, a lot of the early betting has been on two games that have no bearing on anything. Nearly $20,000 has come for the Chiefs at $1.90 to beat Wellington on Friday night, but we did also taken an early bet of $8000 for the Hurricanes ($1.90) when betting opened. Bets of $10,000 and $5000 have come from South Africa for the Sharks ($1.20) to beat the Cats in Durban. The handicap of -11½ has also been snapped up, and it is proving difficult to ascertain how motivated these sides will be. Motivations won't be questioned in the Highlanders v Reds match in Dunedin where a win will mean a finals berth. The Highlanders are favoured at $1.50, but the early money, including a bet of $3600, has been for the Reds at $2.50. Wendall Sailor is finally starting to look like a top class Union player, and this is a match that the Reds can definitely win. The Crusaders have secured top spot, and while we are not doubting that they would want to beat the Waratahs this week, "protecting" top players from injury will be a major concern for both sides. Having said that, we have taken sizeable wagers of $10,000 and $8000 (both from New Zealand) for the Crusaders to win at $1.28, and also $10,000 worth of bets for the Crusaders at -9½ points. The Waratahs are not only out of favour in this match, but also to win the final. The Waratahs are unwanted at $5, but all of a sudden the Brumbies are back in the betting. We put the Brumbies up at $5 on Monday, but that was taken with a $4000 bet from South Africa, and $2000 from an Australian client. The Brumbies are now into $4.25, but won't have the advantage of a home final. [Golf | GOLF] KJ Choi, a pre-post $51 chance, easily won last weekends Compaq Classic. A host of outsiders were backed to win in New Orleans, but the only time we saw any money for Choi was when he was $3 coming into the last round. The two well backed favourites, Ernie Els and Phil Mickelson, were never winning chances. Tiger Woods returns this week in the Byron Nelson Classic at $3.25 favourite. We have taken two bets of $2000 for Tiger, but punters are again showing a willingness to bet against him. Phil Mickelson has drawn a $2000 each way bet at $13, while David Duval ($26), Scott Verplank ($41), and Charles Howell III ($41) have all been backed to take out $35,000 by a Queensland client. Aussie Geoff Ogilvy ($67) showed a return to form last weekend, and might be a place chance, while a very astute English punter has backed Cameron Beckman ($81) and Matt Gogel ($81) to take out $10,000. The Benson and Hedges International Open is also on this week, and in a first for Centrebet there has been more interest in the European Tour than the American tour. Retief Goosen is favourite at $9, and we have had no trouble laying him at that price. Close to a dozen players have been backed with us to take out close to $40,000, including Darren Clarke ($19), Paul McGinley ($41), Lee Westwood ($41) and Philip Price ($61). Clarke has won this event before, but the two strong form lines lie with Jose Maria Olazabal, (winner twice before), and also Bernhard Langer, who won in 1997 and back in 1991. Olazabal ($12), shot a terrible last round of 74 in last weeks French Open, but did shoot three sub -70 round during the first three rounds. Langers winning form over the past few season is of some concern, but he obviously has an affinity with the Sutton Colfield course. Aussie youngster Adam Scott is a $23 shot, and looks awfully hard to beat. Anikka Sorenstam is our $2.50 favourite to win the women's tour event this weekend, while Hale Irwin is the $5 top pick in the TD Waterhouse Championship on the Seniors Tour. [Entertainment | ENTERTAINMENT] Aaron's eviction from Australian Big Brother was our first loss on an Aussie eviction. After opening at $4.50 on Tuesday, Aaron was backed into $1.80 in the ensuing three days. Opinion polls, and our "punting" polls, indicated that Aaron was a better chance to be shown the door than Turkan, and that's exactly what happened. Three intruders have been added this week which has thrown our new market into chaos. It's an all new market with intruder Kieran joining Marty and Nathan as the $4 equal favourite. The impressionable Kieran opened at $4.50 on Wednesday, but he gathered more than half of bets for that day. Turkan's threat to leave also forced us to suspend eviction betting. If she "walks", our rule states that this weeks eviction bets will be voided and fresh betting will restart, but if Turkan had access to our betting ledger, she might rethink as it shows she is gaining popularity. Not one person has backed Turkan to be evicted this week ($5.50), in stark contrast to the first three weeks. The outspoken Shannon has been the one sought after, now into $1.45 after opening at $1.55, while outsider Peter ($10) has also attracted a lot of bets. Following the betting and also keeping an eye on the forums, our top is that Shannon will be packing her bags on Sunday night. Sweden is still the favourite at $4 to win the Eurovision Song Contest, but money continues to roll in for several countries as the big day approaches. The best backed countries this week have been Germany ($5), Croatia ($16) and Romania ($40), with Macedonia and Denmark both attracting a bet of €1000 at $6.50 and $5 respectively. [Formula One | FORMULA ONE] Not much action to report on this week's Austrian Grand Prix apart from some of the exotic options. Michael Schumacher is $1.50 to win again, ahead of team-mate Rubens Barrichello at $5. A few smaller bets have been taken on Juan Pablo Montoya ($6) and Ralf Schumacher ($7), but realistically Ferrari's dominance of F1 is taking the fun out of it. Both Montoya and Ralf Schumacher are expected to gain a place on the Podium by one client from Singapore. He has put $5000 on both at $1.90, while an English client placed £1000 on David Coulthard to finish in the placings at $4. Head to head betting has centred around the match up of Montoya and Ralf Schumacher. Both have been backed, with a slight preference shown for Schumacher ($1.90) to beat home the enigmatic Montoya. Kimi Raikkonen has a fan in Helsinki who continuously backs the Finn in each race, and this time he has also placed €3000 on Raikkonen to beat home Jenson Button at $1.70. [Basketball | BASKETBALL] With the NBA playoffs currently in progress, it's a little difficult to report on how the betting is going, but the second round loss by the LA Lakers in Tuesday nights match against San Antonio gave us one of our biggest ever Basketball results. We all know how popular the Lakers are with punters and they were already a loser before a relatively new client from Austria come online with a massive bet of €30,000 at $1.33. San Antonio held the upper hand for most of the match, but the Lakers got within one point in the last quarter after trailing by 16 points at half time. San Antonio managed to hang on to win by 3 points 88-85 which also disposed of a $20,000 bet that the game total would be over 181½ points. That home loss by the Lakers proves that they are beatable, which is good news for Centrebet as they are a bad loser in our championship book. [Soccer | SOCCER] Centrebet "put the party on" for soccer punters when Arsenal beat Chelsea 2-0 in the FA Cup. Arsenal were backed from an opening $2.20 into $1.95. Even though we took some sizeable bets at the bigger odds, we also took some big ones as the odds were reduced to $2, including €12,500 and $20,000. The good news however is that we staged a courageous fight back last night when the "Gunners" beat Man United 1-0 to secure the Premier league title. Man United opened at $2, and while there was some early money for Arsenal at $3.50, as soon as Thierry Henry was ruled out through injury, punters went into a frenzy. United were backed into $1.95, and we also took over $20,000 in bets to say that the goal total would be over 2½ goals. Last night (Wed) also saw the UEFA Cup final played, which went to Feyenord 3-2 over Borussia Dortmund. Our Asian clients launched two assaults on us, initially taking the $2.80 and $2.70 for Dortmund, then coming back to take the odds on offer for the draw. Quite obviously there was a difference in the Asian market as money continued to come from that part of the world for both of those options, but our European punters took the opportunity to secure the bigger odds on offer ($2.60) for Feyenord. We have seen very little action on this weekend's Premier league, and in fact the largest bet at the time of writing was only $3000 on Blackburn at $2 to beat Fulham. With most teams having little to play for, it looks like being a quiet weekend. Juventus came good at the right end of
the season to win the Serie A title last week, and this weekend get the
chance to make it a double in the Italian Cup. Juventus are $2.60 equal
favourites with Parma, but we have seen money from Italy for a draw at
$3. Lillestrom have been a big "go" in Norway tonight against Moss. After opening at $1.70, Lillestrom are now into $1.55 with the largest bet being 100,000NOK ($AUD 20,000) at $1.65. Rosenborg also play tonight as $1.60 shots against Molde. The Trondheim side will carry lots of money at that quote, but certainly are yet to find their best form judging by a 2-1 loss to Bryne last Sunday. Finally, the Champions League final
will be on next Wednesday, and all our World Cup markets will open the
next morning.
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