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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet
Capers
Some very strange betting moves, and some even stranger results greeted league fans last weekend. New Zealand started the ball rolling when impressive 34-12 winners over Newcastle. The Knights only won two of eight matches last season when Andrew Johns was out of the side, and with Johns ineligible to play due to Origin duty, we thought the Knights could go over. As much as $3.30 was given elsewhere for New Zealand to win, but our $2.40 was being taken just before game time. While we were trying to "keep" the Warriors, we did take two $5000 bets for them with 6½ points start, and also a $6000 bet at $2.50. It was a real struggle to get any decent money for Newcastle aside from one big one of $14,000 when they touched $1.55. We also took a $20,000 bet from New Zealand for the game total to go over 46½ points at $2, and we only just managed to get home on that bet. Melbourne v Parramatta was a terrific betting match with five separate bets of $10,000 taken, three for the Eels and the other two for Melbourne. The Victorian side were backed from an opening $2.20 into $1.90 equal favourites, and the narrow two point victory to an under strength Parramatta side was a good boost to their premiership hopes. Penrith have been "knocking on the door" recently, and although they hadn't won a match, the Panthers went into the match against North Qld as $1.90 favourites. In oppressive conditions, the Panthers raced to a 26-2 lead at half time before eventually winning 38-8. A New Zealand client placed $22,000 on North Qld to win, and a Sydney client also placed $10,000 on the Cowboys to win at $1.90. Another plunge was placed on Wests Tigers to beat St George-Illawarra, but unlike the New Zealand plunge which was landed, the punters had their fingers burnt when the Dragons beat the Tigers 33-22. After opening at $2.10, the Tigers were backed into $1.75, with the largest bet being $25,000 at $1.85. Some punters recognised value in the $2 on offer for the Dragons, which was taken by bets of $10,000 and $5000, and maybe the Dragons have finally began to find some form. We put our faith, and our money, on the line when the Sharks played the Bulldogs, but that's it for the Sharks! They were absolute rubbish in the second half when beaten 48-22, which was good news for a Sydney punter who placed $40,000 in two bets on the Bulldogs to beat a 7½ point handicap. With State of Origin on last night, some of this weeks betting won't be open until today (Thurs) as we assess the damage from last nights game. On paper there look's a couple of good matches, with Parramatta going in as $1.45 chances to beat the Roosters on Friday night. We have taken a bet of $7500 for Parramatta, with the same punter also placing $6000 on the Sharks ($2) to beat Penrith (our best bet by the way!) and $10,000 on the Bulldogs at $1.33 to beat the Eagles. If there was to be an upset, it might well be Brisbane ($1.45) who of course will have eleven players backing up when they play the Dragons on Sunday. Last night's State of Origin match was a massive betting event. It was the biggest Origin match we have had for years as gauged by bets of $30,000, $8000 and $7500 that came for Queensland at $2 before they drifted to $2.05! Several of our bigger league punters went for New South Wales with one placing $25,000 at $1.80 and another tuning in with a $20,000 bet at $1.75. An Aussie based in Malaysia even rang through with a $25,000 bet for the Blues to cover the 1½ point spread also placing $20,000 on the game total to exceed 42½ points. The betting side of things, was the only exciting facet of the game as the Blues whitewashed Queensland 32-4. Mass changes are tipped for the Queensland side, when they play at home in origin two, and betting won't be available until that squad is announced. [Australian Rules | AUSTRALIAN RULES] A very good week for bookies on the Aussie Rules led up by Collingwood's epic three point win over Brisbane. We pointed out last week that we thought Brisbane could be beaten, and when you get a $1.25 shot beaten, you expect to win big time, and that's what happened! We also took a heap of late money for Brisbane at -26½, including $15,000 and $12,000, and Collingwood's win has seen their premiership odds slashed to $10. Geelong were hammered, and so were we, when Port dished out a 75 point drubbing to the Cats. $40,000 worth of bets went on Port to win at $1.25, and nearly that amount again for them to beat a 26 point handicap. Another last kick victory was again costly when Fremantle beat Melbourne. This has got to be some kind of record of wins won by the last kick of the match, and nearly every one has gone against the bookies. The push by the AFL to get global recognition seems to be paying off. Last week, one of the biggest losing bets on Adelaide against the Kangaroos was 25,000 NOK ($AUD 5500) from a client in Norway, who has joined a growing list of clients from outside of Australia who bet on Aussie Rules. The Crows face a tricky game this week when they play Carlton at Optus oval. This would be the first time Adelaide have been favourites in this encounter ($1.65), but as yet the Crows fan in Norway hasn't put his money on. Cocky Collingwood fans think they can beat Port Adelaide at Footy Park on Friday night, and we took several thousand dollars for the Magpies when betting opened at $2.65. Melbourne were also an early "go" to beat the Kangaroos with an early shopper jumping straight in with a $12,500 bet as soon as the betting opened at $1.70. It defies logic, but we are going to stick with Swans against Essendon on Saturday night! The match has had a big build up as the first AFL match at Stadium Australian, and we all know how much criticism that has been handed out to Sydney this week. All the ingredients are there for the Swans to improve (and they need to!) but we are giving them one last chance. We have taken bets of $9000 and $7500 for Essendon to win at $1.35, but the bigger interest, including a $10,000 bet, has been for Essendon conceding 22½ points start. Even the most ardent Swans fans have deserted the ship, so the time is ripe for an upset. Nathan Buckley and Shane Crawford share Brownlow favourtism at $5 ahead of Simon Black and Jason Johnson at $9. Brisbane have "eased" slightly to $2.20 to win the premiership, while St Kilda are now $1.33 to win the wooden spoon. For those interested, Swans coach Rodney Eade was one of the outsiders at $34 to be the first coach to be replaced in season 2002, and we only found three people who thought that that was a possibility. [Rugby Union | RUGBY UNION] Most would agree that only the ACT Brumbies are capable of halting the winning sequence of the Crusaders in the Super 12 final this Saturday night. The Crusaders haven't been beaten this season, but the Brumbies showed with their 51-10 over the Waratahs last week that they are back to their best. We were absolutely smashed in that win when punters from all over the world backed the Brumbies from $1.55 into $1.40. This was easily our worst result of the season, but that was hot on the heels of one of our best when the Highlanders scored a late converted try to just sneak in on the 13 point handicap when beaten 34-23. Some big betting came out of New Zealand, including $40,000 and $20,000 for the Crusaders to win by 13 points or more ($1.70), and also a late bet of $25,000 to beat the 13 point handicap at $1.90. A big cheer went up in the Centrebet office when the Highlanders scored that try. The Crusaders have been Super 12 favourites for months now, and there is one Englishman we know will be watching the final intently. He placed $40,000 on the Kiwi's when they were $3.25, and we are wondering if he will "hedge" his bet by taking the $2.50 for the Brumbies. Good interest has been shown in both sides, and while we expect the late money to be for the Crusaders at $1.55, we are tipping a Brumbies win. The Rugby World Cup draw is out, and we have an intriguing thought of a possible Australia v New Zealand semi final. These two dominate the betting at $2.50 and $3.20 respectively, and agree with David Campese that whoever wins that semi will win the final. Punters from the Northern Hemisphere actually think they can come down here and win the Cup! We have seen bundles of bets for England ($5) and France ($8), while both Wales ($151) and Scotland ($151) have been backed to take out in excess of $75,000. [Formula One | FORMULA ONE] It hasn't come as a great shock that the interest is well down on betting to win this week's Monaco Grand Prix, but it might come as a startling revelation that interest is well up on the other options. For the record, Michael Schumacher is $1.55 to win around the tight Monte Carlo circuit, with team-mate Rubens Barrichello second elect at $3.75. The big money has been placed on "podium positions", with David Coulthard ($3.75) and Kimi Raikkonen ($4.50) each backed to take out $25,000, Jenson Button ($13), Eddy Irvine ($41) and Jaques Villeneuve ($41), also backed to take out close to $25,000, while an Italian client has invested €5000 on Juan Pablo Montoya at $1.80. Ralf Schumacher has had $8000 worth of bets placed on him at $1.85 to beat home Montoya at $1.85, while a similar amount has gone on Button at $1.80 to get the better of Nick Heidfeld. [Entertainment | ENTERTAINMENT] All of Europe, and the Centrebet office in Alice Springs, will stop on Saturday night when the Eurovision Song Contest will be decided in Estonia. Betting has crashed through the $100,000 barrier, but we haven't had the huge price changes we have had in previous years due to level support for practically every country. Best backed to date have been Germany ($5), the UK ($10), Denmark ($11), Croatia ($20) and Romania at $40. Betting on a top three finish is even more popular with bets of $8000 coming for Germany ($2.50), $6000 for Estonia ($3), and $2000 each for the UK ($4), Belgium ($6), and Croatia ($6.50). The Danish public have also chimed in backing their entrant from $5.50 into $3.75. Estonia gave us a hefty result last year, but our resident price analysts who fancy themselves as disc jockeys, maintain that favourites Sweden ($4.50) will win, outside chances to Macedonia ($25) and Switzerland ($25). One of the exotic type options available on our Norwegian Big Brother market has been how many votes a specific housemate would get at nomination time, and we decided to give this option a try in the Aussie version of Big Brother. Punters could bet on how many votes Jessica would get last Monday, with the two favourite options being 4-6 votes and 7-9 votes. Seven was the correct number, and landed one winning bet of $400 at $3. Jessica is our $1.20 favourite to be evicted this week, and when does look the best of good things. We have taken a few bets for Brodie at $3.50 and a couple for Marty at $6.50, but unless the producers of the show can do something outstanding to promote Jessica, she seems certain to be thrown out. Aussie Big Brother can be accessed on the internet which is the only explanation we can give as to why a Norwegian punter has placed $1500 on Alex to win overall at $11. This week we have also taken a $500 bet for Sahra at $16, and also a $1000 bet for Peter at $7. Just to clarify the stance on the "capping" of bets, this only applies to eviction bets, for obvious reasons. In Norway, Bergen bartender has been well supported into $1.60 to be evicted tonight (Thurs), but Mikki ($2.50) also carries lots of bets in what will be an interesting vote. Both outsiders, Monica ($5.50) and Dennis ($7.50) look safe, although both have attracted some betting. [Tennis | TENNIS] An injury to Lleyton Hewitt has seen the South Australian ease to $9 to win the French Open which begins on Monday. Andre Agassi is the current favourite at $6, and while attracting some support, the American is nowhere near as popular with punters as he has been in the past. Marat Safin, although easily beaten by Roger Federer in last weeks Masters Series, has been backed to win $50,000 by two Austrian clients at $11, while Federer has been backed to win over $100,000 at $13 since that impressive victory. Tommy Robredo ($26), Yevgeny Kafelnikov ($34), and Sebastian Grosjean ($34) have also been backed to take out in the vicinity of $45,000, while punters seemed to have dismissed the winning hopes of Juan Carlos Ferrero ($6.50) and Carlos Moya ($13). Centrebet will cover every match of the tournament, with some "special" bet options available on the matches that appear one sided. [Golf | GOLF] Tiger made it two Deutsche Bank Opens in a row after eventually fending off Colin Montgomerie in a playoff on Monday. Tiger had his share of support at $2.50, but we found a lot of players backed to win in excess of $50,000 including Padraig Harrington ($16), Retief Goosen ($13), Darren Clarke ($26) and Ian Woosnam ($51). Tiger was looming at the start of the last round, only one shot in arrears of Montgomerie. We posted "Monty" at $2.50, accepting bets of $4000 and $2500, with virtually no takers for Tiger at $1.55. Followers of history, and of Tiger, should be lining up to take the $2.15 for him to win this week's Memorial Tournament in Ohio. Woods has won the past three Memorials, shooting a total 51 under par, a very, very good form line! Second pick is Phil Mickelson, and we have "laid" Mickelson again with a $1500 each way bet. David Duval ($21) and Justin Leonard have attracted bets of $800 each way, and there has been a trickle of support for Ernie Els at $15. Stuart Appleby and Robert Allenby are the shortest of the Aussies at $51, with Appleby showing by his last round last week he might be approaching his best form. Colin Montgomerie is the $11 favourite with Retief Goosen second pick at $13 to win the Volvo PGA Championship in Surrey, England. Like Tiger Woods, Montgomerie has an affinity with the Wentworth Club course having won this event in '98, '99, and 2000 before Andrew Oldcorn won it last year. Both "Monty" and Goosen go in as our worst results, narrowly ahead of Padraig Harrington ($13) who has been backed to win $30,000 by a Melbourne man. It's a pretty handy field, and again there has been a higher level of interest in the European Tour event than the Memorial Tournament in the USA. [Soccer | SOCCER] Well the World Cup gets under way in a little over a weeks time, and we are really seeing the money begin to flow in now. Not much has changed to win the title apart from France in slightly to $4.75, with serious money now coming for Italy ($6) and Brazil ($6.50). During the past week, both of these sides have been backed to win over $100,000, with Croatia ($51), Denmark ($71) and Japan ($71) backed to win just under $100,000. "The Golden Boot" is a wide
open field where we have taken money for over 30 players to top the goal
scoring totals for the Cup. Frenchmen Thierry Henry and David Trezeguet
share favourtism with Italy's Christian Vieri at $11, with Henry easily
the best backed of those well up the betting. Nothing out of the ordinary has happened on the first phase of matches with all favourites very easy to sell. Next week, we will have a more detailed
look at where and maybe why, the "smart" money is going. Until next week, good punting. For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at
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