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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet
Capers
State of Origin II betting is up, and it seems as though punters are willing to forgive and forget the 32-4 belting Queensland copped in the first match in Sydney. The Maroons have run the axe through the team and they may have a bit more agility and mobility around the park. Even though the match will be played in Brisbane, we didn't really think punters would find the $2.30 on offer about Queensland all that attractive, but they have. As soon as betting opened on Tuesday, practically all the early bets, albeit small, were for Queensland while we couldn't find any Blues punters at $1.55. I am sure that will change as we get closer to the match as the big league punters from New South Wales usually bet up late. Followers of price changes should have had a big weekend last week even though things got off to a rocky start when the Roosters upset Parramatta 18-4. The Eels firmed from $1.45 into $1.33, with big bets of $20,000 ($1.40), $15,000 ($1.38) and $15,000 (-9) arriving coming for them. Although the Roosters had three late withdrawals, we did find two $5000 bets for them receiving the nine points start. The Eels, who got into $2.75 to win the title after the first round have now "blown out the gate" to $4.50. Another poor refereeing decision cost us plenty when Penrith scored a two point victory over the Sharks. The Sharks David Peachey was again a late withdrawal, which saw Penrith start at $1.53 after opening at $1.80. We took on early bet of $6000 for the Sharks, which we thought would be a sign of what was to follow, and were quite happy about that as we rated Penrith as the likely winners. But that was about the extent of the interest in the Sharks, and it was impossible to keep the public "off" Penrith, including a late bet of $15,000 at $1.58. Bulldogs supporters had little cause
for alarm as they scored a late intercept try to beat the Eagles 28-10.
Two bets of $10,000 went on the Bulldogs at $1.33 and $1.25, but the
bigger money, including one wager of $25,000, was placed on them
conceding 9 points start. This week however, things might take a turn for the worse when the Dragons travel to North Queensland. The Cowboys are fortunate in so much as John Doyle and John Buttigieg have been dumped from the Queensland, and the early bets taken have been for the Cowboys. Some punters must have thought it was a misprint when we posted Brisbane at $2.60 against West Tigers on Friday night, but of course the Bronco's will be missing Origin players, and suspended winger Lote Tuqiri. The $1.48 for Wests was taken by wagers of $15,000, $5000 and $3000, and they are now into $1.40. Penrith are another side advantaged by not having any starters in the state game, and they are $2 outsiders to beat the Roosters on Saturday night. Roosters fans have invested close to $16,000 at the $1.75, but the signs are ominous that Penrith might be "back". The rampaging Warriors should confirm their elevation up the premiership market (now $10) by dishing out a hiding to the Sharks on Sunday. Even without Stacey Jones, the Warriors have a multitude of scoring options, and the confidence of the Sharks must have reached rock bottom after last week. We put up the Sharks at $5, or an appealing +14 points start, but have only taken $4000 for them in small bets. Newcastle are $3.25 to win the title now, ahead of Brisbane, Parramatta and the Bulldogs all at $4.50. [Rugby Union | RUGBY UNION] With eight minutes to go in last weeks Super 12 final, our prayers looked like being answered when the Brumbies scored to get back within one point of the Crusaders. The Brumbies certainly hadn't deserved to get so close, and this looked like being another of those matches when the better side on the day were beaten, but no sooner had they got that converted try than the Crusaders moved into overdrive, scoring 17 unanswered points in the dying minutes. They deserved to win the competition, and were the first Super 12 champions to go through the season undefeated. Massive betting took place on the final, with the biggest losing bet on the Brumbies being $25,000 ($2.70) from a client who had the Crusaders running for a $130,000 collect. We saw plenty of people taking advantage of a similar position with both sides, including a South African who had backed the Brumbies to win $40,000 when they touched $11. His $20,000 wager on the Crusaders saw him in a comfortable win/win situation, but his bet was overshadowed by bets of $40,000 and $36,000, both from New Zealand, for a Crusaders win. The one glimmer of hope we had when the Brumbies got to within one point was that those who took the -4 the Crusaders, including one bet of $25,000, but in the finish we just had to concede that the Kiwis were just far too good! With the Crusaders making up a fair proportion of the All Blacks squad, we have also seen close to $4000 come this week for New Zealand to win next years World Cup, and also another $2000 for France at $9. The French are coming to Australia for a two Test series in June/July, but first the French have to play Argentina in Beunos Aires. Australia remain World Cup favourites at $2.50. [Australian Rules | AUSTRALIAN RULES] Enough is enough! We have lost a fortune on "the last kick" of matches this season, and it happened not once, not twice, but three times last weekend. In a good betting match on Friday night, we would have preferred Collingwood to win, but even a draw would have helped as Anthony Rocca lined up to level the scores, but he couldn't dissect the big sticks. Rocca's miss would only have drawn the match had it gone through, but it was a major difference when Sydney's Ricky Mott missed an absolute "sitter" which would have seen Sydney beat Essendon. We made Essendon our "risk" of the round, taking a series of bets around the $10,000 mark for them at $1.35. The good piece of news that came out of their two point victory over Sydney was that we got to keep several large bets, including one of $8000, for Essendon to beat a 22 point handicap. That demoralising loss for Sydney, and for Centrebet, was hot on the heels of a four point victory by Melbourne over the Kangaroos earlier in the day. An avalanche of support for Melbourne had seen them start at $1.60 after opening at $1.75, and we had that money in "safe keeping" when Roos forward Sav Rocca kicked a goal to put the Kangaroos in front with a minute to go. Not to be outdone, Melbourne's Adam Yze got the ball and kicked the winning goal to land a lot of big winning bets, led up by $12,500 at $1.70. Splitting those two heartbreaking
results was a good one though, as St Kilda upset Richmond 72-63. The
young Saints are starting to get a few injured players back, and
Richmond, well we all know how the Tigers can play when they are
favourites! Richmond were $1.22 to win the match, and while there wasn't
any one decent wager at the outright price, a Victorian punter was one
of several who "anchored" up Richmond in a big multiple bet.
Richmond coming to grief cost him big time as this was the only leg to
"miss' from a $40,000 outlay. This week, we are looking for St Kilda to extend their winning run to two in a row when they take on the West Coast at Colonial Stadium. The Saints were good against Richmond, and the West Australian sides aren't as dominant when they head east, so it looks a good opportunity to take them on. One of Victoria's biggest punters was first in with a $14,000 bet on the West Coast at $1.62, and that was followed up by another $10,000, this time from Perth, at $1.60. Ironically, Richmond, the side condemned by all, are tipped by our Aussie Rules analysts to beat the Bulldogs this week. Granted the Bulldogs did a good job to beat Geelong, but they were 40 points behind at one stage, and $1.72 is definitely poor value. A couple of Victorians have placed $8000 and $6000 respectively on the Bulldogs, and just like the Kangaroos two weeks ago and Sydney last week, we think that the public criticism being leveled at Richmond will be enough to get them home. It is strange for home sides to be outsiders in the AFL, and no less than six are underdogs this week. We always like to be on home side, particularly receiving any sort of handicap start, but some of the favourites, namely Essendon ($1.38) and Brisbane ($1.62), have been a little hard to sell. Fremantle ($1.30) are the shortest priced favourites of the round to beat a very disappointing Carlton. The Blues are now $1.65 to win the wooden spoon, ousting St Kilda ($2.50) as favourites to run last. Brisbane are back into $2.15 to win the premiership, while Shane Crawford remains the $5 favourite for the Brownlow. Significant movers from last week have been Michael Voss ($21 - $10) and Port Adelaide's Josh Francou, into $13 from $34. Nathan Buckley ($7) continues to play well, but while Buckley is being as closely "tagged" as he has been recently, punters seem too nervous to take the short odds in case he gets reported again. [Golf | GOLF] Jim Furyk, a $51 chance, showed a stunning return to form to win an action packed Memorial Tournament last week. Favourite Tiger Woods ($2.50) couldn't make it four in a row, and while Tiger stormed home in the fourth round, he was never a winning chance. Furyk has been out of form, and favour, for so long, that we only took a few small bets for him. Even entering the last round, he was still a $29 shot. Justin Leonard has also shown improvement lately, and he is our $10 favourite to win the Kemper Open in Marylands this week. That price has been pretty much ignored, but Leonard did win this event back in 1993, and is returning to something like his old form. Many of the big names are taking the next two weeks off to prepare for the US Open in a fortnight's time, but the interest has still been quite good. We have laid second pick Jose Maria Olazabal ($15) to take out $18,000, and Tom Lehman ($34), Fred Funk ($34), and last year's winner Frank Lickliter ($67) to lose $15,000 each way to a New Zealand client. Most of the Australians eligible to play on the tour will play the Kemper, with the shortest of those being 1998 winner Stuart Appleby ($26), just ahead of Greg Norman at $34. In England, Colin Montgomerie is the $7.50 favourite to win the British Masters, but Monty's back injury makes it very difficult to know how to tackle the betting. Montgomerie was one of the best backed to win last week's Volvo PGA Championship, but his form deteriorated over the last two rounds. There was talk he would be having a back operation this week, but all of a sudden he is a confirmed starter, and punters are taking the $7.50, certainly a very brave move! As a result of that news, not surprisingly several others have been supported. Padraig Harrington has attracted a $2000 each way bet at $13, Thomas Bjorn ($17) has been backed to win a similar amount by loyal Danish punters, while Gary Orr, winner in 2000, has been backed to take out $25,000 at $29. Orr won on the easier Dukes course shooting 21 under, but those looking for value could do worse than having something on Thomas Levet ($41) who won on the Marquess course last year in a playoff. All the big guns are out in force this week on the LPGA event in Illinois at the Stonebridge Country Club. Anika Sorenstam is the $2.50 favourite ahead of Karrie Webb ($6) and Se Ri Pak at $13, with Pak the only one of the favoured players to attract any early support. Brandi Burton ($67), Carin Koch ($67), Michele Redman ($67) and Silvia Cavalleri ($101) have each been backed to take out $15,000 by some of our English punters who bet regularly on the Ladies Golf. [Motorbikes | MOTORBIKES] It looks a predictable finish coming up in Mugello on Sunday where Valentino Rossi will more than likely confirm why he is $1.35 to win the Italian Grand Prix. We have taken bets of $3000 and $2000 for Rossi, and practically nothing for any other rider. Once again, there is a better spread of money on "podium finish", with bets of $5000 and $2800 coming for Tohru Ukawa at $1.70, and $2500 for Max Biaggi at $2.50. Loris Capirossi has had a very disappointing season, however on his home soil we think he can grab a top three finish at $2.05. We have also matched up Capirossi with Ukawa in a head to head, with a German client placing $2500 on Ukawa at $1.80. A very wet and slippery Silverstone circuit greeted Superbike riders last Sunday, with Troy Bayliss putting up an amazing performance to finish fifth in the first race. Bets totaling just under $10,000 had gone on the Aussie champ at $1.55 to win race one, but he fell off on lap three when leading. Bayliss remounted, only to fall off again, before once again joining his bike to pass most of the field. American Colin Edwards won the first race as a $3.50 chance, but Bayliss easily won the second after leading all the way on a drying track. Bayliss did land two winning bets of $2000 at $1.55, but like Valentino Rossi, it looks like only accidents can prevent these two from continuing on their winning way. [Formula One | FORMULA ONE] After all the talk following the controversial finish to the Austrian Grand Prix, we didn't expect too much action on the Monaco Grand Prix, but when the starter hit the green light to start the race, more money had been bet than in Austria! The Ferrari's didn't have it all their own way, with a significant change to Michelin tyres appearing to be the main reason behind David Coulthards second win around the tight, picturesque, Monte Carlo circuit in three years. We told you last week that Coulthard ($3.75) and Kimi Raikkonen ($4.50) had been backed to take out $25,000 to finish in the top three. Fortunately for us the group of punters who backed Coulthard to finish in the placings didn't back him at the $21 to win. After qualifying, Coulthard was into $4.75, with Juan Pablo Montoya favourite at $2.50 ahead of Michael Schumacher at $2.80. In a sensational betting race, Jarni Trulli ($81 - $17) and Jenson Button ($101 - $41) were backed to take out over $100,000 with Centrebet, while a German client placed $10,000 on Montoya after he qualified quickest. Schumacher still had supporters at the $2.80, while an English client placed £1000 on Coulthard at the $4.75. Only 10 drivers finished the race, which is about par for the course in Monaco, and once in front, Coulthard was always going to be hard to beat. The McLarens have been far inferior to the Ferrari's this season, and we will have to wait and see if the vast improvement in Monaco can be carried over to a more spacious course. We doubt it, but well see what happen in two weeks time. [Entertainment | ENTERTAINMENT] When betting opened a month ago, Latvia, then a $41 chance, was one of the first countries we laid to win the Eurovision Song Contest. Latvia was backed to take out roughly $25,000 then, which saw us cut the price to $25. That was really the last time we saw any rush for Latvia, and for the second year in a row we got a fantastic result. The final turnover figure was the equivalent of what we would expect to hold on an early World Cup soccer game, so naturally we can't wait for Eurovision 2003 to come around! Sweden started favourite at $4, with other late movers being the United Kingdom ($12 - $5) and Denmark ($16 - $7). Denmark were backed to win 1million DKK ($AUD 200,000) by our Danish clients, whereas the money for the UK came from all over Europe. Runner-up Malta were backed to win $60,000 by an Italian client at $15, but the most surprising thing to come out of the whole night was that the Danish entrant finished last. While millions of viewers watched the Gala event throughout Europe, this night's popularity is growing each year as a betting medium, and we also noticed a rather large increase in interest from Australian clients. While on the subject of Australia, the eviction of Brodie from Australian Big Brother last week gave us a very good result. Brodie had several bets placed on him early in the week at $4.50, but when we "eased" Jessica out to $1.20, punters thought that that was better than bank interest. We took bets of $2000 and three separate bets of $1000, but incredibly Jessica has all of a sudden gained some popularity and is still there! History has been created this week with all eight housemates nominated, with two facing eviction. This has been the most well received eviction so far with punters, and in another shock, if you believe the betting, Nathan can start packing his bags as he has been backed from $2.75 into $1.55. In complete contrast to recent weeks, most of the support has come in for the men, with Jessica, who we thought was a "special" to go, is the only person we haven't seen any significant number of bets come for. Maybe the public are warming to her? [Soccer | SOCCER] The biggest betting event on the sporting calendar kicks off in the Far East this week and punters are putting their faith in France, Argentina and England, for whom Manchester United midfielder David Beckham is so important. After England coach Sven-Goran Eriksson confidently predicted that Posh Spice's better-looking other half would be fit to captain the Poms in their Group F opener against Sweden, an English punter backed the 1966 World Cup winners to take out $40,000. We are happy to stand France, Argentina and England because of the draw. Only two of those teams can reach the quarter-finals and one can qualify for the final. Teams with easier passages include Brazil, Italy and the indomitable Lions of Cameroon, who are being backed after the United Kingdom's top sports betting publication, Racing Post, headlined the Olympic Games gold medallists at $51. This week we have taken a $20,000 bet for France at $5, and a $10,000 bet for Italy at $5.50. Punters do not think that Zinedine Zidane's absence shall stop France from smashing Senegal in Friday's first match. The betting public's confidence in the defending champions is so high that they are lumping on Les Blues to lead the African Cup of Nations runners-up at the end of the first and second halves in Seoul. There have been some shocks in World Cup openers down the years (Argentina lost to Belgium and Cameroon in the 1982 and 1990 World Cup curtain raisers respectively) but punters are not concerned. They like France and are getting stuck into them at $1.30. Golden Boot betting is one of the World
Cup's most exciting markets and trade is up on previous tournaments.
Gabriel Batistuta is the most popular player with punters, which is
surprising since he must be an odds-on chance not to start Argentina's
first game against Nigeria on Sunday. Batigol started only five of
Argentina's 18 qualifying matches because national coach Marcelo Bielsa
prefers Hernan Crespo. There is little chance of Bielsa selecting both
Batistuta and Crespo because he likes his starting line-ups to feature
one central striker supported by two wide attackers, usually Claudio
Lopez and Kily Gonzalez. Batistuta's international record is very good
(55 goals in 75 appearances) but he cannot score from the bench.
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