I’ll be
honest, I wrote most of this column a year or so ago. However, I have
been getting emails with follow up questions for the entire year so
obviously some readers found the material useful. I’ve updated it and
included the moneyline conversion chart. In my next column I will try
to cover some of the follow up topics as well. If you are new to
betting baseball, or have never tried moneylines in football or
basketball, this is a great column for you.
Last
week we talked about which is more important, hitting or pitching,
when picking winners in baseball. This week I want to discuss
moneylines in baseball and how the mathematics involved should impact
your wagering decision.
Lets
start with a question. Which of these bets would you prefer to place?
$300 to win $100 on a heavy favorite (-300) with a 75% chance of
winning.
$150 to win $100 on a medium favorite (-150) with a 60% chance of
winning
$100 to win $200 on an underdog (+200) with a 33.33% chance of winning
This is
a trick question; the correct answer is that each scenario is
essentially the same with an expected return of $0.
In
scenario ‘a’, 75% of the time you win $100 but you lose $300 the other
25%.
Expected return = (.75 * 100) – (.25 * 300) = 75 – 75 = 0
In
scenario ‘b’, 60% of the time you win $100 but you lose $150 the other
40%.
Expected return = (.60 * 100) – (.40 * 150) = 60 – 60 = 0
In
scenario ‘c’, 33.33% of the time you win $200 but you lose $100 the
other 66.66%.
Expected return = (.3333 * 200) – (.6666 * 100) = 66.66 – 66.66 = 0
I think
you can see the pattern here. To calculate the percentage of wins
required to break-even for any moneyline use the following formula:
Required Win % = Amount Risked / (Amount Risked + Amount of
Win)
E.g.: a
line of –110 implies a risk of $110 to win $100 so….
Required win % = 110 / (110 + 100) = 110/210 = 52.38%
Many
readers will have seen this number before in my columns because this
is the win percentage needed to reach the break-even point when
betting spreads and totals in football and basketball. I can hear the
collective groan from here as you remember why you hated high school
algebra but I implore you to spend a few minutes on this if you want
to be profitable at baseball or any other sport. However, let me save
you a lot of work by adding in the following chart:
|
Moneyline
|
Loss
|
Win
|
Win %
Required
|
|
-320 |
-320 |
100 |
76.19% |
|
-300 |
-300 |
100 |
75.00% |
|
-280 |
-280 |
100 |
73.68% |
|
-270 |
-270 |
100 |
72.97% |
|
-260 |
-260 |
100 |
72.22% |
|
-250 |
-250 |
100 |
71.43% |
|
-240 |
-240 |
100 |
70.59% |
|
-230 |
-230 |
100 |
69.70% |
|
-220 |
-220 |
100 |
68.75% |
|
-210 |
-210 |
100 |
67.74% |
|
-200 |
-200 |
100 |
66.67% |
|
-180 |
-180 |
100 |
64.29% |
|
-170 |
-170 |
100 |
62.96% |
|
-160 |
-160 |
100 |
61.54% |
|
-150 |
-150 |
100 |
60.00% |
|
-140 |
-140 |
100 |
58.33% |
|
-130 |
-130 |
100 |
56.52% |
|
-120 |
-120 |
100 |
54.55% |
|
-110 |
-110 |
100 |
52.38% |
|
-105 |
-105 |
100 |
51.22% |
|
-100 |
-100 |
100 |
50.00% |
|
105 |
-100 |
105 |
48.78% |
|
110 |
-100 |
110 |
47.62% |
|
120 |
-100 |
120 |
45.45% |
|
130 |
-100 |
130 |
43.48% |
|
140 |
-100 |
140 |
41.67% |
|
150 |
-100 |
150 |
40.00% |
|
160 |
-100 |
160 |
38.46% |
|
170 |
-100 |
170 |
37.04% |
|
180 |
-100 |
180 |
35.71% |
|
200 |
-100 |
200 |
33.33% |
|
210 |
-100 |
210 |
32.26% |
|
220 |
-100 |
220 |
31.25% |
|
230 |
-100 |
230 |
30.30% |
|
240 |
-100 |
240 |
29.41% |
|
250 |
-100 |
250 |
28.57% |
|
260 |
-100 |
260 |
27.78% |
|
270 |
-100 |
270 |
27.03% |
|
280 |
-100 |
280 |
26.32% |
|
290 |
-100 |
290 |
25.64% |
|
300 |
-100 |
300 |
25.00% |
Just a
quick note or two to make sure you are all clear on the chart. Have a
look at the line for –180. If you lose, you lose $180 but a win only
gets you $100. Thus you need to win 64.29% of the time to break even.
Similarly, looking at +170, we see a loss only costs us $-100 but a
win gets us $170 so we only need to win 37.04% of the time. This chart
will be sufficient for almost all baseball lines and a large portion
of football and basketball moneylines.
“Why is
this important?” you ask. Simple. Every time you look at a moneyline,
you need to know what winning % you need to break even. If you expect
the –300 favorite from scenario a to win 80% of the time, than you’ve
got a betting opportunity. If you expect a win only 70% of the time,
than you should pass and move on to analyzing the next game.
I
notice that most handicappers prefer to play underdogs and small
favorites while public bettors like the big favorites. Which is
better? There is no right answer as both can be right and both can be
wrong, it simply depends on the game. Handicappers like underdogs and
small favorites because these are picks that are harder for the
average player to come up with. If you called a betting service and
were told “I really like the Red Sox with Pedro Martinez on the hill
hosting the Tigers tonight” would you be happy that you had just
played $10 or $20 or $50 for that pick? No way! Pedro and the Red Sox
should beat the Tigers every time out. Heck, our co-ed office softball
team took 2-of-3 from the Tigers in spring training. Well maybe not,
but you get the idea; if you are paying for a pick, you want something
a little less obvious.
Another
reason handicappers prefer betting the dog is it eliminates big
losses. If Pedro has an off night and the Tigers get the upset win
over a –300 or -350 favorite, would you call that handicapping service
again? Probably not. But, if the same handicapper hits a win with a
+160 or +200 dog, you would very likely be impressed and would be far
more likely to use the service again. The handicappers aren’t being
dishonest in any way; it’s just the nature of their business.
Although handicappers shy away from big favorites, you don’t have to.
Looking back at the first month of the season, I see the Yankees
closed as a –210 favorite or higher on twelve occasions. They won 10
of those games. Betting to win $100 on those 12 games would have meant
risking a total of $2915 but would have made you $435, a decent return
of 14.9%. I am sure I could look through a few other teams and find
example where risking the big juice would have resulted in losses, but
my point is that you do not need to avoid games just because the
moneylines are big. You might choose to, but you don’t have to.
Remember that it doesn’t matter how big the price or how much you get
back as long as you know where the break-even point is. Keep this in
mind the next time someone says “I never lay more than -140 on a
baseball game.” You can now tell them when they should. I’ll be back
in a couple of weeks with a little more on moneylines.
I
always welcome comments, questions and suggestions via email at
rob@bodog.com
Rob Gillespie
President
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