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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES It looked a tipster's nightmare on paper and that's exactly how found five of the AFL unfolded. Only three favourites managed to win and Essendon's upset 11 goal Anzac Day thumping of Collingwood got bookies off to a great start while things got progressively worse for punters. The Anzac Day match saw a huge amount of activity, mostly centered around a Collingwood win, but there was also plenty of support for the Bombers Three separate bets of $10,000 were placed on Collingwood to win at $1.40, as well as a bet of $11,000 for the Magpies to beat a 17 point handicap at $1.90. With the Roosters also playing in the NRL the same afternoon, it was quite popular to couple up the two favs in a double, with the largest of those being $20,000. On exposed form, both looked 'good things', but the great uncertainty of sport saw both go down. Sydney booted 10 goals in the last quarter in their match against Melbourne on Friday night to win by four goals at the SCG. We took a stance against the Swans, and for the first three quarters we were right, but as was evidenced by a couple of other games over the weekend, the way the game is played today allows teams to get back into the fray even when the task looks hopeless. The intriguing part of this match was that the biggest bet for the Swans was only $6500 at $1.70, yet the sheer amount of smaller bets meant that their win was our worst result of the round. While Australians, by virtue of a very questionable law, are not allowed to bet 'in running' over the internet, that particular service is quite popular with our overseas punters, even on the Aussie Rules. We have discussed this law before, and it seems more of an inconvenience to Australian punters than anything else as they can still have the bet, it's just that they have to ring up to place it. It doesn't make a lot of sense, and hopefully will be abolished when a review is undertaken later this year. But back to the footy, and the reason that I bought this subject up was the Hawthorn v Richmond match on Saturday. Hawthorn went into the game as heavily backed favs at $1.70, and the match was as good as over when they raced to a 52 point lead in the second quarter. Richmond rallied late in that quarter to get within 27 points at the major break, at which time Hawthorn were $1.25 and Richmond at $3.70. During the 3AW call on Anzac Day, Rex Hunt said that 3AW received e-mails from over 80 countries that were listening to the football, and we have noticed a huge increase in activity from overseas, obviously from punters who are listening to the matches over the internet. In this instance, one of the bets at half time was 8000 NOK ($AUD 1800) for Hawthorn at $1.25, and we can only imagine what one Norwegian would have felt like doing to his computer when Richmond scored 14 unanswered goals to win the game running away. We also took a strange bet from England on the Brisbane v Bulldogs clash on Sunday. Most of the bets we receive from overseas are on the games themselves, but this one was 1300 Pounds for Brisbane to have more disposals than the Bulldogs at $1.60. While Brisbane were raging favs to win the game, there had been a lot of rain in Brisbane, and the Bulldogs do gather a lot of possessions as they tend to chip it around. That is what happened here, and in the end, although beaten by 26 points, the Bulldogs had just over 20 more disposals than Brisbane. The two 'local derbies' were the big betting games we expected, with one going our way (Port Adelaide), and the other, the West Coast, going to punters. The win by Port over the Crows was so impressive that we have elevated them to second picks to win the flag at $5.50, but Brisbane remain solid at $2.50. Even though the Bulldogs put up a brave display against Brisbane, they are now the outright favourite at $3.50 to win the wooden spoon, with a bet of $1000 coming this week at that quote. Collingwood and Port Adelaide have been targeted in early action on the upcoming round. Two $5000 bets came just after betting opened for Collingwood at $1.33 to beat Sydney, and an $8000 double was also taken for Collingwood coupled up with Port, who are $1.22 to beat Richmond. It's hard to believe that Carlton are favourites in a game, let alone against Hawthorn, but they are, and practically every early bet has been for the Blues at $1.75. Over the past couple of weeks we have seen Geelong, Sydney and Richmond bounce back and win after copping a barrage of criticism for their previous week's effort, so maybe it might be Hawthorn's turn this week? In any case, the odds look pretty attractive. The win by Essendon last week hasn't done much to impress punters as the $2 for the Bombers to beat Fremantle has only attracted a few hundred dollars, whereas the $1.80 for Fremantle has already been taken with two early bets of $2000. A similar trend is transpiring on the Bulldogs game with all early money being for St Kilda at $1.95, and practically nothing for the Bulldogs at $1.85. A lot of teams play terribly the week after having been to Brisbane, so no doubt anyone that has been keen to invest on this match is using that theory. RUGBY LEAGUE If things were bad for Aussie Rules punters last week, then they were diabolical for league followers when only three of those favourites won as well, but the 'big money sides' for the round failed to deliver. St George-Illawarra for the second week in a row were the 'bookies friend' when after leading at one stage by 16-0, hung on to beat the Roosters 24-20 in Friday's Anzac Day clash. Not surprisingly, this was a betting game of huge proportions, with the Roosters firming from $1.38 into $1.25 through public support and the withdrawal from the Dragons side of strike backs Timmins and Gasnier. Several $10,000 bets were taken for the Roosters to win, with the handicap of -9.5 points also drawing massive support, including a late bet of $12,000 at $1.83. When the score was 24-8 in favour of the Dragons at half time, a bet of $8000 that the total score would be over 44.5 seemed certain to be a winner, but we even got to hang onto that bet as the Roosters were the only team to score in the second half, adding only 12 points. That was a big result, but punters fought back somewhat later that night when Brisbane scored with three minutes left on the clock to beat Parramatta 20-14. The biggest bet on the game was $10,000 for Brisbane conceding 3.5 points start at $1.80, but this was another of those results where there weren't so many large bets, just a stream of bets coming for the eventual winners. A couple of devout league followers were into the 19 points start that Newcastle were conceding to Wests, so we decide to go with them, which turned out to be a good decision when the Knights won 34-6. Money did still trickle in for the Knights to beat the spread, but two of our bigger Sydney clients placed just over $40,000 between them on the Tigers with the start. We gave a lot of that back however when the Canberra Raiders continued on their merry winning way when defeating the Bulldogs 26-22. That was the third consecutive defeat for the Bulldogs, something not unexpected judging the support for Canberra. The biggest winner for the game was a Sydney punter who placed a total of $24,000 on the Raiders with the start ( 4.5 ), and that was Canberra's tenth win from their last eleven at home. The 'real' Penrith outplayed New Zealand on Sunday to score an impressive 14 point victory. As we said last week, the $1.20 for a New Zealand win was hard to sell, and that was the same all the way up until kickoff. The -9.5 points that the Warriors were conceding was a different story however, as there were any amount of takers for that. Late bets of $16,000, and $10,000, on top of what we had already seen, meant that the Kiwis covering the start was going to be a very ordinary result, but thankfully Penrith, on the back of some spectacular Rhys Wesser tries, finally showed what they are capable of. In the other match on Sunday, Manly continued on with their winning form when beating Souths 28-20, which was just enough for us. The 7.5 points start that we were giving Souths was heavily backed, led up by one client from Victoria with a bet of $14,500, while we also took some big bets on the game total being under 47.5 points, which was backed from $1.90 into $1.60. The shocking weather conditions caused that move, but sometimes the bad weather opens up scoring opportunities, and the total just snuck over the mark that we had set. If the Bulldogs had their time over again, maybe they wouldn't have transferred this weeks 'home' game to Wellington where they will play the Warriors. These matches have been successful in the past, but the Bulldogs have injury worries, and are on a losing streak, so it's not an ideal time to be surrendering a home match to New Zealand. The betting is tight, and frantic, with early bets of $20,000 and $6600 coming for the Bulldogs at 1.90, but already we have seen a bet of $10,000 come from New Zealand for the home side but it looks as though by the number of bets that we are seeing for the Bulldogs that they might start favourites. The second game on Friday night will see Parramatta host the Roosters. The Roosters are our $1.48 favourites, but we maintain that they are some risk, especially conceding the handicap of 7 points start. While Parramatta didn't win last week, it was a much better display against Brisbane, and we are going to give the Eels one final chance to redeem themselves. The Eels have blown out to $23 to win the title, and are $1.90 to make the final 8, and they really need to get some wins on the board or they will be giving away too much start. To date, one bet of $20,000 has been placed on the Roosters in this game at $1.48. Another side in the same situation is Cronulla, and they have to front up to St George Illawarra on Sunday to try and post their first win of the season. Three weeks ago that would have been an easier assignment than it is now, and on current form, the Dragons really do deserve the $1.48 tag we have bestowed on them. For various reasons, a case can be put up to back both of these teams, and as a result, we have a good betting game which doesn't look like it will have much movement. This match has also seen an early bet of $20,000 for the favourites. 'No Johns, no Newcastle' has been the call for several seasons, and on statistics it would be hard to argue with. The Knights find themselves traveling to Melbourne without the services of Andrew Johns, and that is the sole reason why they are the price they are, $2. We have seen a sprinkling of small bets for Newcastle, but early bets of $4000, and $3200 for Melbourne have set the scene, so more is expected to come. The difficult part now is trying to ascertain how short the Storm should be as they also have numerous injuries. Maybe this is one that Newcastle can get away with. CRICKET Australia have retained the Sir Frank Worrell trophy after winning the first two Tests in a 'best of four' series against the West Indies, but we have been taken to the cleaners on the first two Tests so there is no point backing off now. The West Indies get back Shivnarine Chanderpaul and Chris Gayle to strengthen the batting line-up, something that was lacking badly in the last test. There is little doubt that the Windies have the artillery required in the bowling department to knock Australia over, but they can't just rely solely on Brian Lara getting a score, so we see these two inclusions as quite significant. Punters disagree as the $1.55 for an Australian win has been taken firstly by a bet of $20,000 from India, then a handful of bets from Aussies totaling nearly the same amount again. The early weather reports from Bridgetown suggest no problems, but we have kept the draw 'safe' at $3.25. Oddly enough, when Australia play overseas there are plenty from this part of the world prepared to bet against them, and we have taken two separate bets of $1000 for the West Indies at $8. FORMULA ONE Michael Schumacher wins his first race for the new season and all of a sudden the whole world wants to be on the German to make it two in a row this week in Spain! Practically every bet on this week's race has been for Schumacher, the first being $3500 from Sweden taken at $1.85, and the bets continue to flow in at $1.80. The $1.90 for the number one Ferrari driver to gain 'pole' position has also been popular, but we have also taken $1000 worth of bets for Rubens Barrichello to qualify quickest, so most think that the Ferrari's are about to renew their dominance. Kimi Raikkonen is $7 to win in Barcelona, and after winning two in a row before losing the second under controversial circumstances, we have been surprised to see that there is hardly any interest in him this week, even from Finland. MOTOR BIKES It was as if the God's were looking down on Spaniard Sete Gibernau in last week's South African MotoGP as he scored a win in surrounded by plenty of emotion. Gibernau, an $11 chance, was the team-mate of Daiijiro Kato who died as a result of an accident in the previous race in Japan. Opinions differed as to how this would affect Gibernau, but he never missed a beat all weekend, qualifying quickest, and holding out odds on favourite Valentino Rossi to win the event. Rossi was looked upon as a 'good thing' in some quarters, and attracted two bets of $5000 at the $1.50. Loris Capirossi was backed to win just under $20,000 at $9, and we did see several small bets for the eventual winner at $10 after the first qualifying session. Troy Bayliss had supporters, being backed to win the race to win a similar amount at $41, and also being backed to $10,000 to finish on the podium at $11. Neil Hodgson won both of the Super Bike races in Japan, and now that he remains unbeaten for the season, it seems likely that the interest will disappear altogether on the Super Bikes. For all the reasons we pointed out last week, this was the only time that we could see Hodgson being beaten, but he was right , and we were wrong. Hodgson was placed third and fourth in the corresponding races last year in a much stronger field, and claimed that he was suited around the Sugo course. While we were trying desperately to 'lay' Hodgson to win both races, we could only find a few punters who thought he could, one of those placing $500 on both races. Hitoyasu Izutsu, riding a Honda, had two bets of 500 Euro's placed on him at $3.50 (both from Italy ) to win both races, but after putting up poor showings in the qualifiers, he eventually started the races on the $12 line of betting. GOLF In what proved to be an entertaining final round of golf, a teary-eyed Fred Couples won his first event in five years by taking out the 2003 Shell Houston Open. This proved to be no fluke as Couples in recent weeks has become one of the form players on the PGA tour, with four top 20 finishes in the last five events, including two top 10s, and now his first victory since the 1998 Memorial. His worst finish at his last six events was a tie for 28th at the Masters, so form indicated he was leading up to this victory , and punters were on the ball as Couples proved to be best backed ,with wagers of $300ew at $51 and $600ew at $41. He virtually led from hole one and although challenged at different stages throughout his final round by Calcavecchia, Aussie Stuart Appleby, and big hitting Hank Kuehne, four birdies in the last six holes snuffed them out. There was certainly a veterans flavour about this event as tied for fifth was Jay Haas and sixth was Jeff Maggert, both also in good recent form and proving age is no barrier on the PGA tour if you're hitting the ball sweetly enough. Unfortunately for Centrebet, Couples hit it too sweetly for four rounds, and then used the experience gained in winning a Masters and two Player's Championship down the stretch. The next event is the HP Classic of New Orleans where K.J Choi is defending champion. His recent form suggests he will struggle in this event, but defending champions have a way of finding form when that event comes around. Last year Choi defeated Dudley Hart and Australian Geoff Ogilvy by four shots and Ogilvy has threatened in recent events to win his maiden PGA tour event. Another player with form at English Turn Golf & C.C is Carlos Franco with victories in '99 and 2000 as well as tied for 13th last year. His tie for 13th at The Shell Houston Open suggest he is ready to become another veteran who will figure prominently in a PGA event. Well supported in this event has been Phil Mickelson, ($1000 at $10), Bob Estes, ($500ew at $41), Steve Flesch, ($500ew at $67) and Stephen Ames, $300ew at $81, but all have the ominous figure of Davis Love, three-time winner this season, to conquer. On other tours, Kenneth Ferrie won the Canarias Open de Espana with a birdie on the second hole of sudden death play off from Peter Hedblom and Peter Lawrie to become the seventh first time winner on the European tour this year. Colin Montgomerie is $5.50 fav to win the Italian Open at his first appearance on The European tour this year, with a host of players including Ricardo Gonzalez and Richard Green all at big odds to rest the title from Ian Poulter. On the LPGA tour, Karrie Webb squandered a two shot lead into the final round, while Se Ri Pak continued her amazing run of final round blitzes by winning the Chick-Fil Championship on the fourth extra hole from Australian Shani Waugh to claim her 20th LPGA tour title. This week is the inaugural Michelob Light Open at Kingsmill , with Sorenstam at $2.75 and Se Ri Pak at $6.50 dominating the betting. RUGBY UNION With two rounds of the Super 12s remaining, the fate of several sides could and most likely, will be decided this weekend. On Friday night the Blues host the Cats at Eden Park in a one sided betting affair, with the Blues a prohibitive $1.03 and giving 26.5pts at $1.90 to an injury depleted Cats unit. This is followed by a clash in Cape Town between the Stormers and Crusaders, the result of which is critical to both sides. A loss to the Stormers will end their season, while a loss to the Crusaders will see the defending title holders in a position where they must defeat the Brumbies in the final round at Canberra - no mean feat. The betting here sees the Stormers receiving 5.5 pts start at $1.90 while most interest has been for the Crusader at $1.50 to win the game. On Friday the Highlanders are $1.26 and 12.5 point favourites to end the Waratahs season. The Waratahs have been disappointing without Mat Rogers in recent weeks and a victory at the “House of Pain” would surprise most pundits. This game is followed by another important clash as the Brumbies take on the Hurricanes in Wellington, and are receiving 7.5 points start at $1.90. Early money is for the Hurricanes at the line with an opening wager of $5000, however its make or break time for the Brumbies so expect an improved showing after last weeks dismal performance at Carisbrook. The second game on Saturday will end the season of either the Reds or Sharks, both of whom have only a slender chance of making the semis if everything goes their way. The Reds are $1.42 and 7.5 points favourites to win this clash from a highly competitive Sharks team, who have given high profile teams such as the Highlanders and Blues a scare in recent weeks. The final game is a clash of Super 12s biggest packs as the Bulls host the Chiefs in Pretoria. The Bulls are $1.40 and must give the Chiefs 7.5 points start at $1.90. The stage is set for an entertaining round of Rugby where several clubs will be desperate in their final roll of the dice for Super 12 2003. SOCCER The punters have spoken. David Beckham and Sir Alex Ferguson are about to undergo an acrimonious divorce, no matter what Real Madrid have to say on the subject, with punters falling over themselves to take Centrebet's odds of 3.50 that the England captain is not part of the Old Trafford set-up when the Red Devils play their first 2003-2004 English Premier League game. Centrebet is yet to lay a bet on United kicking off next season with Mr Posh Spice in tow and, consequently, its price on that particular outcome is drifting. After opening at 1.25, now it is freely available at 1.28. Punters are skeptical because Real made the same noises about Ronaldo last year and United fans do not need reminding for which club he plays now after his Old Trafford hat-trick ended the Champions League hopes of the Premier League favourites. United are 1.18 to regain the English domestic championship and, with defeats of Charlton in Manchester and Everton on Merseyside standing between them and guaranteed title glory, punters are finding it hard to quibble with Centrebet's quote of 1.18. United were 9.00 after losing to Manchester City in the last-ever Maine Road derby. Few punters availed themselves of that price and, incredibly, Centrebet wants United to win for once! A few months ago I wrote about the football betting theory that compels punters to back teams with new managers. Now it is that time of the season when punters accept cramped odds about teams with something for which to play - championship success, qualification for one of UEFA's club competitions or survival - defeating sides for which the season cannot end soon enough. The approach paid dividends in the last round of Premier League fixtures, with United (the biggest bet was 35,000 SEK at 1.57), Newcastle (E15,000 at 1.67), Liverpool (E10,000 at 1.65) and West Ham (E14,500 at 2.95) delighting motivation theorists. Furthermore, the only teams to disappoint Centrebet's high-rolling punters were Arsenal (big money bet in-running on the Gunners at 1.14) and Chelsea ($27,000 at 1.35 in two accumulators). They tackled Bolton and Everton respectively, sides with Premier League survival and UEFA Cup qualification at the forefront of their minds. Let's see how these savvy punters fair this weekend. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com
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