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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES The 'Colliwobbles' have struck early this year, and punters paid the penalty when Sydney scored a major upset with a 20 point victory over Collingwood on Saturday night. The 'away' form of the Swans has always been a concern, and this win really does raise some issues as to where Collingwood are at the moment, but that doesn't help those that took the short odds, and there were plenty! After opening the week at $1.33, Collingwood were into $1.26 on Saturday amidst bets of $20,000 at $1.30 and $30,000 at $1.28, as well as bets of $10,000 and $8000 to beat a 20 point handicap. The Magpies were also coupled up in several large multiple bets with Port Adelaide and Brisbane, so their defeat saved us some massive payouts. There was one Melbourne Swans fan who confidently predicted a win by placing $8000 on the Swans at $3.80, but we were more than happy to pay up. Melbourne's fans are an unhappy bunch at the moment, and so would those who backed them heavily last Saturday against the West Coast. We thought Melbourne would win this game, but when punters were taking $1.65, we changed strategy as that seemed like extremely poor value. It was quite surprising how they 'tuned in', and the shorter Melbourne got, the bigger the bets were, led up by $13,000 at the $1.65. Although we weren't betting on the first coach to be replaced, we have had a few calls this week about the price of Neale Daniher, so the knives are out. Although both beaten, Richmond and Geelong stayed inside the allocated handicaps, and in doing so did Centrebet a rather large favour. Both Port Adelaide (-29½) and Brisbane (-28½) were easy to lay, and while Richmond came perilously close in their 27 point defeat by Port, Geelong were heroic in their 14 point loss to Brisbane, and could easily have come away with the points if they had played better in the second quarter. With that in mind, we have decided to go after Brisbane this week when they take on the Swans in Sydney. It looks as though the Lions plan this year is to protect a lead rather than trying to smash the opposition, and even if the Swans don't win this week, we think that they are a pretty safe bet to get inside the 17 point handicap. We have taken a bet of $6000 for Brisbane to win at $1.45, and two bets of $2000 for them to beat the handicap, but it looks as though punters also see this as a danger game. One thing that has happened this week is we have taken our biggest premiership bet for the year so far, that being $40,000 on Brisbane at $2.50, so we have even more reason to hope that Sydney can 'serve it up to them' this week. The West Coast are the shortest priced favourite of the round at $1.14. The Eagles should prove too strong for Geelong, and punters have identified them as being a standout, with early multiple trading carrying the Eagles in practically every bet. There has been a little money for Geelong with 35½ points start, but the sides travelling to the west just find the going too tough, and we expect the Eagles to 'cover' that mark easily. Essendon look a reasonable risk when they return to Victoria after having been belted by Fremantle. Richmond played well enough against Port, and might have Matthew Richardson back, so we are happy to try and get something out of Essendon at $1.60. It's been a battle to do that so far, although we did secure an early wager of $5000 from a Sydney based punter. Melbourne are another underdog that get one last chance this week when they take on Port Adelaide. We have taken a few small bets for Melbourne at $2.90, but expect Port ($1.40) to be popular with favourite punters. Brisbane's Michael Voss is now a warm $3.50 favourite to win the Brownlow Medal, but the major mover for the week has been Sydney's Adam Goodes. Goodes was backed to win $100,000 with us before the season started at $201, but is now into $26. That has been taken with several small wagers this week after Channel 10 commentator Robert Walls tipped him, but there is a long way to go, and a host of chances that are attracting support. RUGBY LEAGUE There was no escape in league action last week when all seven favourites won, and just for good measure, six of those also covered the handicap. The only thing we did right was steer well clear of the nation-wide plunge that was landed when Melbourne ran out 40 point winners over a depleted Newcastle. The form of the Knights when Andrew Johns is absent is woeful to say the least, so our aim was to try and get something out of Newcastle. We chased them out to $2.25, but only managed to get three bets of $2000. With Melbourne shortening at all outlets, the first time we took a good sized bet for the Storm was when we accepted a $6000 at the closing price of $1.60, so even though we didn't do much damage on the game, it certainly would have been much worse if we hadn't have taken the knife to the price. The Bulldogs came from behind to beat New Zealand 18-12 in Wellington, and that was not the start to the weekend that we were looking for. There was money for the Kiwi's when they touched $2.05, but the Bulldogs landed winning bets of $20,000 (twice) at $1.80, as well as two $10,000 bets at $1.90. Later the same night we took a $20,000 bet for the Roosters at $1.48 to beat Parramatta, and that was on top of three bets totaling just under $30,000 for the Roosters to also cover a spread of 6½ points. There will be no Christmas cards going from Centrebet to the Parramatta club this year as they once again let us down in a very dismal display. The score of 44-12 in favour of the Roosters was indicative of how superior they were. Cronulla was another disappointing side that we pinned our faith in, and like Parramatta, it's hard to believe that either of these sides were considered as serious threats in this years premiership. Bets of $25,000 and $20,000 were placed on St George-Illawarra at $1.48 when there were rumours about that Trent Barrett might not play. Ironically he did, but had to come off with an ankle injury, but it didn't matter as the Dragons continued on winning, this time 28-12. Brisbane landed a winning $17,000 wager when they easily covered a 13 point spread ($1.90) on their way to beating Wests 38-6. The Eels really are 'on the nose' with punters judging by the early trading on Fridays game against New Zealand. In amongst all the early bets for the Warriors are four individual $10,000 bets for them to cover a 10½ and 11½ point handicap. Now we aren’t giving the Eels another chance this week, it is just that we have been forced into a corner, but having said that, it would be a very long time since they received a start like that. We live in hope! Souths have had two bets worth $18,000 placed on them to remain within 14½ points of Newcastle, and while Andrew Johns is still out, the Knights hope to regain Ben Kennedy, and it is Souths away from home. One travelling side that we give a remote chance to is the Cowboys, who have to venture down to Brisbane. The Broncos will probably win, but the 17½ points that they are conceding seems a lot. These two sides met a month ago when Brisbane won by 8 points, but North Queensland look, and are playing, like a better side. Trying to lay Brisbane at home is always an easy task, but not this time as all we have seen so far is a bet of $3300 conceding the start. Premiership favouritism awaits the winner of Friday nights clash between the Bulldogs and the Roosters. We had trouble splitting this pair, but the Roosters got the nod, only slightly, at $1.80 due to the fact that the Bulldogs had such a torrid game against the Warriors. Punters have seen it differently as the $2 for a Bulldog win was very quickly snapped up, and we continue to see money at $1.95. Punters were just as quick to react in the Melbourne v Canberra game. Many couldn't believe their eyes when the saw $1.90 for the unbeaten Canberra side, and within minutes we were forced to cut the price to $1.80. The price stays where it is for the time being as on last weeks form, Melbourne can definitely win this one. RUGBY UNION As expected, last week saw the end of Super 12 season for several clubs, but the results have meant that four still have a chance to progress to the semi-final stage if results fall in their favour. This ensures an exciting final round, which kicks off on Friday night with a clash between the Blues and the Hurricanes at Eden Park. The Hurricanes must win to guarantee a home semi-final, while the Blues will try to fine tune their game after a lack lustre game against the Cats and defeat to the Highlanders in the last two weeks. The Blues are $1.40 favourites and must give 8½ points to the Hurricanes at $1.90 with early money for the Blues. This game is followed by the blockbuster of the round as the Brumbies host the Crusaders, where the extent of their effort will be measured by the performance of the Hurricanes in the proceeding match. If the Hurricanes win, the Crusaders must win to retain a home semi-final, while if they lose the Crusaders cannot be budged from second spot. One thing is for certain, the Brumbies must win to remain in the four, and punters have been aware of this fact and placed over $30,000 at $1.90 giving 3½ points start. Their fate may well lay in the hands of the Hurricanes. On Saturday the Reds host the Highlanders at Ballymore, who still have a chance of making the semis if the Brumbies go down to the Crusaders. The Highlanders are $1.75 favs, but punters are wary to become involved until the completion of Fridays' games. If the Brumbies win, the complexion of betting on this game will change. The second game on Saturday sees the Waratahs host the Chiefs in Sydney. They are at the short quote of $1.20 and must give 12½ points start at $1.90 which may appear a little too much depending on the results of the previous games. The Waratahs can make it, but must rely on the Crusaders and the Reds to do them a favour for that scenario to happen. Needless to say punters have been reticent to get involved. The final game which may create interest sees the Sharks take on the Bulls in Cape Town. The Sharks are $1.70 favs in this matchup but if results fall the Bulls way then they will have an opportunity to make a semi-final appearance. Punters don't want a bar of this match, until the Bulls fate is known. No doubt if fortune looks kindly upon them in the preceding games then this match may kick off with a different favourite. All in all, a great week for Super 12, but betting has become even more volatile given the number of scenarios which can occur. ENTERTAINMENT Australian Big Brother is into it's second week, and now that we finally know who is in, the format, and some of the new rules, we have opened the betting. While the women have never fared to well in the Australian version of the reality show, early action has seen Regina backed into equal $4 favourite with Daniel. Daniel has had the most bets placed on him of the group so far, but we just wonder if the public can put up with a 'Warwick Capper' look-alike for 3 months. Ex Melbourne detective Benjamin has not only been backed to walk away with the major prize at $11, but also to be first evicted this week. He opened at $5 to be evicted, but several bets, led up by $500 from a Gold Coast resident (not from the house!!), has seen his price slashed to $3.50. Irena remains a very warm favourite at $1.35 to be the first to pack her bags, and if the general opinion is anything like that of our 'Big Brother form analysts' in the Centrebet office, that might well be the best bet of the weekend in any code. CRICKET Australia won an enthralling third test against the West Indies, but as fate had it, what was shaping as an ordinary result early on turned out to be a big win for Centrebet. Last week we made mention of one bet of $20,000 for Australia to win at $1.55, and that was followed up by a similar bet just before the match got under way. The West Indies had been backed to win close to $50,000 at $7, and we were 'left' with the draw. That was looking good when the Aussies piled on 605 runs, and the Windies hadn't lost a wicket at the end of the second days play. It was time to balance up the books, and the $1.90 for a draw was taken by several substantial wagers with the largest of those being $17,000 from a new Sydney based client. Even before the start of the last day when Australia firmly had the noose around the neck of the West Indies, bets were still coming for the draw at $2.50, so the win by Australia was another of those occasions where we were happy with the end result both from a business and parochial point of view. The fourth and final test begins at St Johns, Antigua, on Friday night Australian time. Ricky Ponting has been in some doubt due to illness, but the Aussies are still the short priced fav's at $1.65. We haven't seen any Indian money yet, but one Sydney client has placed $9000 on Australia to make a clean sweep of the series. The draw ($2.70) at the moment is our preferred option as the St Johns wicket is conducive to a lot of runs, and the weather maps also indicate a possibility of rain interruptions, so we are leaning that way until it gets into the betting. Prices for the best of seven One Day Series will be up at the completion of the last test. GOLF There is no doubt that this year has been one of the most unusual on the PGA tour for some time with multiple winners, veterans and first time winners all adding to the drama. The HP Classic of New Orleans was no exception with Steve Flesch coming from seven shots behind leader Scott Verplank to record his first victory, after six promising but exasperating years on tour. Verplank himself had not won for two years and it showed as he stumbled over the final three holes, which culminated with a double bogey six on the 72nd hole. Flesch won on the first hole of a sudden death playoff from the consistent Bob Estes, as he drained a thirty foot birdie for victory. Both Flesch and Estes were two of the best backed starters in this event with one wager for Flesch of $600 each way at $51, while Estes was backed to win over $25,000 at $41, Verplank, well he was all ours as punters completely ignored his chances even though he held a three stroke lead entering the final round. Its been a difficult three weeks since Mike Weir won the Masters as Love, Couples and now Flesch have all been well supported, and if that’s any indication, Flesch ($300 each way at $51), Kenny Perry ($400 each way at $51) and Furyk ($1000 each way at $19) should figure prominently at this weeks Wachovia Championship in Virginia. On other tours, Mathias Gronberg won his first European Tour event since 2000 when he shot a seven under 65 to beat more fancied rivals in Colin Montgomerie and Ricardo Gonzalez. This week Angel Cabrera defends his Benson and Hedges International title at The Belfry in England where Padraig Harrington is $10 favourite. Best supported have been Paul Lawrie ($300 each way at $34) and Jose Maria Olazabal ($250 each way at $34) while the $21 on offer Cabrera represents good value. On the LPGA Tour, Grace Park, after leading by one shot into the final round, defeated Cristie Kerr, Lorena Ochoa and Karrie Webb by one shot in what was a topsy turvy round. A long birdie putt on sixteen followed by a twenty foot putt for par on eighteen clinched the victory but all players had the opportunity to win. Finally on the Challenge Tour, Tom Jenkins secured his fourth victory in five years with a consistent closing round of 67 to defeat Bruce Fleisher and Hale Irwin. MOTOR BIKES Sete Gibernau won an emotion charged South African MotoGP two weeks ago, but we didn't really expect punters to stick with the Spaniard this week in Jerez, but they have. The $12 for Gibernau to win the race has been taken, and we have also taken many bets, including €2000 and €1500 for him to finish on the podium. That’s price has been backed from an opening $3.25 into $2.50, and is still being taken. Valentino Rossi is of course the favourite to take the event at $1.50, and we haven't seen anything that would suggest he can’t make it three in a row at the Spanish course. Bets of $1500 and $1000 have been accepted at that quote, but it is becoming increasingly popular for Rossi fans to wait until qualifying is over before taking the short odds. Arch rival Max Biaggi is our second fav at $5, and in our opinion, is the only rider equipped enough to upset Rossi. SOCCER Did you back Manchester United at $9 to win their eighth English Premier League championship? You only have yourself to blame if you did not because Centrebet offered that enormous price for six days in the middle of November. The Red Devils had lost the last-ever ‘Maine Road derby’, drawing away to relegation favourites West Ham and slipped unusually far down the ladder. At the end of November, Sir Alex Ferguson's side, albeit with one game in hand, trailed Arsenal by nine points. The gap between the Gunners and Red Devils was five points at the end of 2002, at which point we quoted United at $2.75 to regain the Premier League crown. Exceedingly few punters expected that Old Trafford would play host to another title party and, consequently, we spent the season in the strange position of having the Red Devils on its side in an ante-post book. Two competitions in which United flopped this season were the Champions League and English FA Cup. Real Madrid are $1.80 to win UEFA's most prestigious club competition for the tenth time following this week's semi-final, first-leg matches in Italy and Spain. Punters, some of whom were trying to recoup losses sustained backing Real at $1.35 to beat Mallorca on Saturday (the Meringues lost 5-1), piled into Vicente del Bosque's side, with Zinedine Zidane and company kicking off at $1.55 to defeat Juventus after opening at $1.70. There was also significant money for Milan to beat city rivals Internazionale for the third time this season but punters, including a Norwegian client who invested 75,000 NOK at $2.25, came unstuck. Arsenal and Southampton participated in a FA Cup final rehearsal at Highbury on Wednesday, with the Gunners winning 6-1 to strike a psychological blow ahead of the Millennium Stadium showdown on May 17. The goal fest was particularly bad news for an Asian client who bet $US11,000 at $2.10 that the teams would score fewer than three goals between them. We are open for business on the FA Cup, with Arsenal available at $1.25 to win the competition and $1.50 to defeat the Saints without requiring extra time and/or penalties. The game promises to be an absolute cracker. Finally, many congratulations to the Norwegian client whose five-leg soccer accumulator on Borg Fotball ($1.75), Narvik ($1.90), Strindheim ($1.20), Djurgårdens IF FF ($1.55) and, of course, Real ($1.65) returned just over 100,000 NOK. Thank goodness that he did not add Rosenborg to his multi! Norway's perennial champions were $1.70 to beat Buvik by eight or more goals. Rosenborg led 9-0 at half time and ended up winning 17-0.
Until next week, good punting For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or
on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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