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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES If you tipped all eight winners in the AFL last weekend you deserve some sort of recognition from Mensa, and if anybody had have backed all eight winners 'all up', it would have yielded over $460 back for every one dollar invested! Only two favourites, St Kilda and Fremantle, were able to do the right thing by punters, but having said that, some of the winners did attract their share of business, and it is becoming increasingly obvious that this is possibly the most open season we have ever had. Hawthorn once again squandered an early lead which got punters off to a bad start when they went down to the Kangaroos by 28 points on Friday night. After opening at $1.63, the Hawks were into $1.50 at kick-off. It was all 'one way traffic' for Hawthorn, although the 'Roos did draw a bet of $4000 to win at $2.50, as well as a bet of $2500 at $3.50 to say that they would be ahead at half time as well as at the final siren. On Saturday, the rumours were around that both James Hird and Matthew Lloyd might be late withdrawals from the Essendon side to play Richmond. That didn't make any difference though as all and sundry wanted to be on the Bombers. The price moved from $1.60 into $1.53 before game time, with some of the larger bets recorded being $15,000 ($1.55), $8000 ($1.60), and $12,000 for Essendon conceding 10 points start. They were also the first leg of a $20,000 double coupled up with the West Coast to win, and with Hird now injured, the Bombers look very vulnerable. One Melbourne man got a tremendous sight with a $6000 bet on Geelong to win at $5.50 against the West Coast. For the second week in a row, the Cats looked a chance to win, but again ended up with nothing. Saturday night saw a terrific game where Collingwood won on the last kick of the night, but this wasn't really the big result that everyone thought it would be. Adelaide were layable at $1.45, but there was an air of confidence surrounding Collingwood to break a three game losing streak, with one wager alone of $10,000 for Collingwood to get within 15 points of the Crows. The same thing happened on Sunday in the Sydney v Brisbane and Melbourne v Port Adelaide matches. We were really keen on the chances of the Swans beating Brisbane, and while we were accommodated with several big bets, including one of $10,000, for Brisbane to beat a handicap of 17 points, Sunday saw some large bets roll in for Sydney including three of $5000 at the plus 16½ points start, as well as $3000 to win at $2.65. With favourite backers taking a hammering, it was understandable that Port Adelaide would be reasonably hard to sell even at the best available $1.40 that we were offering, although another $20,000 double went down the gurgler in a multiple bet coupled up with Fremantle to win. Fremantle were probably one of the better backed sides of the round, with a Victorian client having two cracks at us to get $17,000 on the Dockers at $1.90. The way they performed, maybe the Dockers have finally broken free of the shackles that has seen them the 'easybeats' of the competition when away from home, and if that is the case, they could be in line for a final eight berth. One multiple player did strike gold out of the round however with a $10,000 bet at the odds of $6.85 for Richmond with 11½ points start, into Geelong (35½ points start), and rounded that off with the Queensland Reds, who were receiving 2½ points start against the Highlanders in Super 12. His result hung in the balance for the entire Reds game before they prevailed by 5 points. This week, the round is dominated by short priced favourites, all playing at home. Most look the obvious winners, but with the amount of upsets we have already seen this year, it seems as though punters are temporarily 'gun shy' as the betting has been very quiet. Multiples players have coupled up the 'shorties', with the most popular combination being Collingwood ($1.48 to beat West Coast) and Brisbane, who are $1.28 to beat Adelaide. Two $5000 bets have been placed on Brisbane conceding 22½ points start to Adelaide, but we have doubts about the Lions being in the form that they were last year, so we are happy to go on with that. There are reports of unrest with gun midfielder Jason Akermanis and Sydney uncovered some flaws in the Lions. Hawthorn, the enigma of the AFL, look like they will start favourites to beat Essendon on Friday night. The betting opened at $1.90 'take your pick', however all the early trading, including a bet of $3500, has been for the Hawks. Richmond's inspired form has also seen early shoppers prepared to take the $1.65 to beat Melbourne, but as we have pointed out before, the Tigers form when favourites leaves a lot to be desired! Geelong have shown a lot of 'ticker' over the past two weeks, but haven't been able to rack up a win. Some are suggesting that the $3.45 we are offering for the Cats to win in Sydney is a good price, but we disagree. On last week's form, Sydney should thrash Geelong, and the big negative for Geelong supporters is that no side has been able to win this season following a trip to the West. If Sydney are to win as expected, we certainly hope that Adam Goodes doesn't dominate like he did last week. Goodes is now into $9 to win the Brownlow Medal, and it seems like every Swans fan from NSW is also jumping on the 'Goodes bandwagon'. RUGBY LEAGUE 'The Grand Final we never had' was how the critics described last Friday's match between the Bulldogs and the Roosters, and while that may well be debatable, these two certainly put on a display worthy of a final. The Bulldogs never gave up, and although they trailed with 10 minutes to go by six points, they managed to score twice to win 32-26. Early in the week, the $2 for a Bulldogs win was taken as soon as we went up, but Friday saw the pendulum swing the other way with late money for the Roosters. They started at $1.75, with the Dogs easing out to $2.05, and just for good measure there were also two bets totaling $25,000 that the game score would be under 44½ points. Things only got better for Centrebet on Saturday when New Zealand couldn't beat the spread against Parramatta, Melbourne beat the previously unbeaten Raiders, and Cronulla chalked up their first win of the season when they thrashed Manly 40-16. As we said last week, four of the early bets for New Zealand were each of $10,000 for the Warriors top beat a 10½ point handicap, and that money continued to flow in, even when the handicap moved to 12½. We also took bets of $7000 and $5000 for New Zealand to win outright at $1.28, and those who took the short odds can probably consider themselves very lucky to be in the winners circle as the Warriors just managed to edge out the Eels 18-16. For the first time this year, we took lots of bets from Victoria for the Melbourne Storm to win, and following on from that emphatic 30-10, there is no reason why that interest should wane at all. The biggest of those bets was only $1300, but that's not the point, it is just good to see that the winning form of the Storm is ramping up a bit of interest in Victoria. Canberra carried some hefty bets into this game, with the biggest of those being $18,000 at $1.83. Everyone has been waiting, and waiting, for Cronulla to get into winning form, and from our point of view, their first win of the season over Manly was as good a time as any to chalk up that elusive first win. The +6½ points start we allocated to Manly differed from other opinions, which meant that we had to put our neck on the line. Several $10,000 bets came for Manly with that start, as well as a bet of $4000 that the Eagles would win by less than 12 points, so we weren't that unhappy to see the Sharks go on a try scoring spree which saw them record a 24 point victory. The defence, or lack of it, by the North Queensland Cowboys saw a $20,000 wager at $1.90 landed on Sunday. The Sydney punter took the -16½ for Brisbane, and while the final score of 38-12 saw him home easily, the Cowboys let in some really 'soft' tries in both halves. A rather bizarre finish to the Penrith v St George match nearly saw the Panthers throw away a much needed win, but they steadied to beat the Dragons 30-26. The betting on this match was similar to the Storm v Raiders game were punters stuck with the 'form' side, in this instance the Dragons. $1.90 was available early in the week, but we found ourselves laying the Dragons at $1.80 on Sunday. While the biggest bet for the Dragons was only $9000, they were the side who attracted the most individual bets of the round, so finally we are recouping some of what we have lost on Penrith over the past two seasons, but there is still a long way to go! In the final game, some punters won and some lost when the handicap on the Newcastle game hovered around the 12-14 mark. No doubt there would have been some 'gap players' around the country who lined their pockets when Newcastle beat Souths 42-28, but those opportunities have been rare this year. We did take bets of $14,000 and $10,000, both from Sydney for the Rabbitohs with 14½ points start, but to offset that, bets of $8000 and $7500 were amongst those that came on Sunday at +13½. This weeks betting activities have been a little limited with the City v Country origin match on Friday night. With a lot of the big names involved, punters have been apprehensive to jump into the rest of the round were those players are involved, and that seems fair enough. The only exception has been St George Illawarra, who play the Bulldogs on Saturday. The Dragons have six players involved in the previous night's match, and that was the reasoning behind the 4½ points start that we allocated to them. Bet's of $10,000 and $7500 have been placed on that handicap, but if Fridays game turns out to be a 'bruiser' in heavy conditions, then we are sure that punters will want to be on the Bulldogs. Country have a very impressive lineup on paper, and the mere fact that they will be led by Andrew Johns should be enough to see them come away with the points. We posted Country at $1.45, or conceding 6½ points start, but in a surprising move, all early money has been for City with the start. These games normally aren't very big from a betting point of view, but this year's already is shaping as being much larger than in years gone by. Johns has had trouble in the past recuperating quickly, and that would also explain why we have taken less than $100 for Newcastle to beat the Roosters at $2.70. Early bets of $8000 and $4000 have been placed on Wests with 7½ points start against North Queensland, while another punter has had a $10,000 double of the Dragons to win at $2.35 coupled up with North Queensland at $1.45. The Cowboys were more than competitive against Brisbane last week, and should have little difficulty in putting the Tigers away. CRICKET It's amazing what a few headlines can do to the interest on an event, and we had the perfect example of that this week with the fourth and final cricket test between the West Indies and Australia. Before the test started, there had been a few large bets placed on the Aussies at $1.65, including $USD 20,000 and $9000. The predicted bad weather, which never eventuated, saw the draw come from $2.90 into $2.70, but it was obvious early on that there would be a result. For some strange reason, the people who took the bigger odds for the West Indies in each of the first three tests didn't surface this time, and they would be kicking themselves now as $10 was available. The headlines regarding the 'sledging' during the match ensured that this match, although a 'dead rubber', was in all the media. That turned it into a terrific game to bet on, particularly before the final day began. The West Indies had to break every record in the book to get the required 418 runs, but there was one of our Indian regulars who thought they could, and he backed that up with a bet of $USD 8000 at $4.25. As the Windies were a good winner for us, and we didn't really rate them any hope of getting the runs, we were happy to take his bet. The statistics pointed towards an Australian win, and the $1.22 we were offering was taken by many who saw this as an opportunity to get some easy money, including bets of $12,000 and $10,000. Now that the West Indies have won a match against Australia, that should give them plenty of confidence going into Saturdays first one day match in Jamaica. Betting will open later today (Thurs), where Australia will be the fav's at $1.45, but definitely beatable in our opinion. RUGBY UNION Its seldom that a team, when presented with an opportunity to play in a finals series, doesn't grab that opportunity with both hands, but last weekend in Super 12 it happened no less than on three occasions, with the Brumbies, the Highlanders and finally the Waratahs all letting the opportunity slip through their grasp. In the end it was the Brumbies who secured the fourth semi-final berth, even though they were defeated in Canberra 21-28 by a committed Crusaders team. The Highlanders were extremely disappointing at Ballymore, while the Waratahs failed to score four tries and gain the bonus point which would have given them the final semi-final berth, against a stout defensive Chiefs unit. The first semi-final on Friday will take place at Jade Stadium in Christchurch between the Crusaders and the Hurricanes. They met in the first week of the season in Christchurch where the Crusaders prevailed 37-21, and on that occasion the Hurricanes showed greater power in the loose exchanges but failed to turn it into points. The Hurricanes have improved somewhat since then and their twelve point defeat at the hands of the Blues last week in a game of great attacking rugby shows that they will be no pushover for the Crusaders. The Crusaders are $1.35 fav and must give 8½ points start at $1.90 and with over $20,000 already invested on the Crusaders it is possible the defending titleholders will start shorter come kick off. Punters are also keen to take the Crusaders into the Blues, who are $1.20 fav and giving 12½ points start, against the Brumbies in the other semi-final on Saturday at Eden Park. Having already defeated the Brumbies there in round six 41-15, and with no Larkham and Walker, it is conceivable they too will start much shorter than their current quote, particularly if the Crusaders win the first semi-final. Either way it is an important weekend in Super 12, with most bookmakers barracking for a Brumby boilover, being already over committed in ante-post betting on the Blues. And if they do prevail then the prospect of a final against defending titleholders, the Crusaders, while a purist Rugby Heaven, will only provide nightmares for bookmakers. GOLF The Wachovia provided few surprises as David Toms won his first event in almost 20 months with a two shot victory over Vijay Singh, Brent Geiberger and Robert Gamez. Toms was prominent in the betting and well supported in an event that was light on depth but not interest. It was Toms best showing since runner up to Tiger Woods in the WGC Accenture Match Play in February, and although he has showed signs of threatening to win on tour this year, he has always managed to put in that one poor round. Last week at Quail Hollow was an exception as he played near flawless golf to lead by six shots coming to the final hole where he took a horror quadruple bogey eight and win by two shots. Toms butters up this week at the Byron Nelson Championship in Texas, where along with Singh and Mickelson, heads the betting. Well supported players include Singh ($1500 each way at $9) Briny Baird ($300 each way at $81) Tom Pernice ($300 each way at $81) Hank Kuehne ($300 each way at $101) along with Estes, Price and Verplank. On the European tour, Tiger Woods travels to Germany to defend his Deutsche Bank Open title he first won in 2001, then again last year. It is his first appearance on European soil this year and last played at Gut Kaden in Hamburg in 2000 where he finished third behind winner Lee Westwood. Woods has been well supported at $2.50 but best backed has been Westwood ($300 each way at $81) and other proven performers in Germany in Bernhard Langer ($500 each way at $41) and Brian Davis ($500 each way at $41). Other players who will prove tough to beat include Colin Montgomerie, runner-up last year, and Padraig Harrington runner-up last week in the Benson and Hedges. Centrebet are currently offering a range of betting options for Annika Sorenstam in next weeks Bank of America Colonial in Fort Worth, Texas, as she attempts to take on the PGA tour as a sponsor invite. Her win price is $331, while she is $81 to finish in the top 4, $26 to finish in the top 10 and $3.50 to make the cut. It will be no walk in the park for Sorenstam who must contend with a longer course which contains the infamous horseshoe and a host of pressure coming from players of the ilk of Vijay Singh and Scott Hoch, who suggest she has no right to compete. An interesting week indeed. ENTERTAINMENT Long odds on favourite Irena was the first housemate to be shown the door in Australian Big Brother on Sunday night, and while that didn't surprise too many at all, we actually had a handy result on that eviction as most of the bets we accepted were for Ben. After a very quiet week by Big Brother standards, we are now beginning to see some interest as the personalities, or lack of, start to come to the fore. The ratings have improved this week as a result of a brewing feud between Belinda and Carlo. This pair, along with Leah and Daniel have been nominated for eviction this week, and while it might be entertaining to have Belinda and Carlo in the house for the duration, one of the duo seems certain to be joining Irena on the sidelines. Both opened up at $1.90, but the first move was for Belinda, including two bets of $500. As for the overall winner, Reginna has also had two $500 bets placed on her this week at $3.50, while second favourite Daniel, has attracted nearly $1200 worth of bets at $4.50. The Eurovision Song Contest is only a little over a week away, and betting is progressing quite smoothly for that award. The controversial video clip of Russian duo tATu has seen them ease in the betting, although they still remain favourites at $5. Spain is now outright second pick at $7.50, and aside from being one of the better backed countries to win, we have also taken two bets of €2000 on a top three finish. MOTOR RACING The Austrian Grand Prix is firmly etched in history after last year when Rubens Barrichello 'surrendered' the lead to allow Michael Schumacher to go through and win, and this weekend's race will also go into the history books as it will be the last in Austria due to the tobacco advertising laws that exist. The 'new' Ferrari impressed two weeks ago when Schumacher won and Barrichello finished third, and we can't see any reason why that won't happen again, so we have gone on the 'short' end of the market for Schumacher at $1.60. Barrichello, a $5 chance, has attracted two bets of €500 from Germany, and Kimi Raikkonen ($8) has been supported to win close to €15,000 by his legion of Finnish fans. The Renault driven by Fernando Alonso has been the big improver this season, and that has been reflected in not only the betting, but also in the following that he has begun to gather. The $21 for Alonso to win has seen as many bets placed as has gone on Raikkonen, and we have also taken two bets of $1000 for a podium finish at $3.50. Mark Webber finishing amongst the points last start has seen the Aussie backed to finish in the placings in Austria as well. The $21 was taken, and we continue to see bets come in at $17, along with a $2000 bet to finish in the top eight at $2.75. Qualification match ups will be available Friday morning.
Until next week, good punting For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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