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Centrebet Capers AUSTRALIAN RULES The last six favourites won last weekend in AFL, and that roll of fav's was enough to see punters come out ahead in the battle with the books. Essendon went for a 'bath' in the betting when it was confirmed late on Friday that both James Hird and Matthew Lloyd would be out of the Bomber's side to meet Hawthorn. This news came about two hours after we had taken $20,000 bet for Essendon at $2.10, and that price blew out to $2.20 at kick-off. The emphasis of those two names missing was underlined by three separate $10,000 bets for Hawthorn at different prices, the last coming at $1.60. It seemed as though punters had forgotten the woeful form of Hawthorn leading up to this game, but after a 53 point drubbing, I am sure that there won’t be another rush like that to back Hawthorn until they show they can put four quarters together. The West Coast showed they have what it takes when they over-ran Collingwood to win by 16 points. The Eagles led at half time by 19 points, and it was at this stage of the game that we took a couple of interesting bets from Denmark, one of 10,000 DKK (just under $AUD 2500) and another of 8250 DKK for the West Coast to win at $1.50. Obviously this duo were keeping up with the match on the internet, and shares in those bets would have nosedived when Collingwood got out to a 15 point lead in the last quarter, but the 'never say die' Eagles persevered and came away with the points. Collingwood drew a large wager of $20,000 at $1.48 on Saturday, on a weekend where several wagers of the same size were common. It seemed to be a weekend where players had trouble dissecting the big sticks, as there was a high number of 'posters', and one of those was crucial to one of our betting options. We took two early bets of $5000 for Brisbane to beat a 22½ point handicap before it moved to 23½, at which stage we took another bet of $10,000. Bad kicking put paid to the Crows' chances, but they had stayed inside the handicap until the final seconds. The margin was 17 points in Brisbane's favour, and when Craig McRae kicked for goal, it looked sure and certain to be on the way through, giving those who took the -22½ an unexpected win. We don't know what happened after the ball left McRae's boot, but it made a 'left hand turn', hitting the post. Favourite backers were busy on Sunday, with a $20,000 going on Sydney at $1.35, another two of $10,000 at the same quote, as well as a treble of $15,600 for Sydney, Carlton and Fremantle all to win at $2.51. All three matches however saw plenty of support also come for the respective outsiders, with the biggest of those being a $9000 bet for Geelong at $3.10. This week, Essendon will start off the round as outsiders against Port at Telstra Dome on Friday. It is very hard to work the Bombers out, but again this week we have seen punters shunning the $2.15 for an Essendon win following James Hird being out again. Fremantle will be going for four wins on end when they travel to the MCG to play Melbourne on Saturday. Normally we wouldn't be able to give the Dockers away in Melbourne, but their win two weeks ago, and the poor form of the Demons, has seen the bulk of early support, including a bet of $7000 at $1.90, come for Fremantle. The harder you hit Collingwood fans, the more they come back for, and Magpies fans have piled on their side to beat St Kilda this week. The stats are in their favour as St Kilda try and break the 'hoodoo' of sides who have played in the West coming back to Melbourne only to lose again. Collingwood opened at $1.57, are now into $1.53, and look certain to start shorter. Geelong and Hawthorn, two sides really under 'the pump', go head to head at Telstra on Sunday in what is shaping as the betting game of the round. The Cats play well at Telstra, and the Hawks are capable of much more than has been shown so far, but the 'minuses' for both sides are mounting. Geelong have had bets of $7000 and $5000 placed on them at $2, and that was after two $5000 bets were placed on Hawthorn at $1.85. Somebody has to win, although we are overdue for a draw, but this is not a game we would recommend having your life savings on. Michael Voss is now a warm $2.50 Brownlow favourite, and a second win for Voss coupled up with Brisbane winning the flag will be an ordinary result for Centrebet. Late last week we took another $2000 bet for Voss at $4, as well a bet of $2000 on the double at $10. The same punter is already on the double, and should both Voss and the Lions be successful, one Victorian will be just over $70,000 better off. RUGBY LEAGUE Sunday was also a good day for those who fancy a bet on Rugby League when of the four matches, three favourites won, all covering the handicap, with the other game being an exciting extra time win to Manly, who went into that match as $1.90 equal fav's with Parramatta. That game was one of the bigger betting matches, and while Manly 'eased' in the betting from $1.70 out to $1.90, they did land bets of $20,000 and $10,000 at the closing quote. There was any amount of money for Parramatta, including one of $16,000 at $1.90, and with the Eels now sitting with only two wins after ten rounds, only a supreme optimist would be tipping them to make the finals. Last week we highlighted the surprising fact that a handful of punters had plonked nearly $20,000 on St George Illawarra with 4½ points start against the Bulldogs given that six of the Dragon's best players had to play in the City v Country match the previous night. Trent Barrett's early departure from that game meant that when betting reopened on Saturday, the Bulldogs were considerably shorter at $1.45 to win, or -7½. A few stuck with the undermanned Dragons, but 90% of Saturday's betting was for the Bulldogs. After leading 18-4 at half time, anyone who saw the match would agree that it was an absolute miracle that the Bulldogs, who failed to score in the second half, were able to hang on and win 18-16. One punter who bet early in the week can consider himself a shade unlucky with a $10,000 bet placed on both the Dragons and the Cowboys to win. There is little doubt he should have been collecting. This week, Cronulla detractors are out in force this week as the Sharks take on the Knight's up in Newcastle, and it looks like we are the only one's who think that the Sharks have any hope at all. As soon as betting opened on this game we were bombarded by money for the Knights, with over $40,000 coming in three bets alone for them to cover a 9½ point handicap. On top of that, we have also taken two win bets of $20,000 and $7500 at $1.33, so if the Sharks are 'back' following their season debut win last week, they can do us a rather large favour by extending that run to two wins as the money continues to come for Newcastle. There will be a double dose of league action on Friday night when the Warriors take on Canberra, and the Bulldogs host Brisbane in what should be an epic battle. The first game is in Wellington, New Zealand, so punters should be aware that while this is a Canberra 'home' game, they have surrendered it to play in New Zealand, which at the moment might not be seen as a good move. That is enough to warrant the Warriors being fav's, and we in early betting, all bar $200 has been for the Warriors to win or cover a six point spread. The Bulldogs have won three in a row, but in all three of those wins against the Warriors, the Roosters and the Dragons, they looked likely to lose, so it is hard to work out just where they are. Maybe the same can be said of the Bronco's who looked in trouble last week until Melbourne lost Matt Orford, and with this game being in Sydney, the home side had to be slight favourites. Oddly enough, this has been a quiet betting match, with little interest in the Bulldogs at $1.57, while Brisbane have had two bets of $3000 placed on them with 4½ points start. Parramatta go around as fav's again on Saturday night, this time against Melbourne. On paper, the Eels look a slightly better outfit this week, and that has given some punters, including one with $8000, to launch into the $1.53 for a Parramatta win. One of the better betting games is shaping as the 'all conquering' Manly who come up against North Queensland. These two met in round two, which saw a 30-20 win to North Queensland, but it was a game the Eagles should have won. They scored five tries to four, but it was a high penalty count, and the boot of Josh Hannay, that was the difference. The Eagles would have gained a lot of confidence from last weeks 'golden point' win, and on form deserve to be top pick, but the Cowboys are capable of scoring plenty of points. Both Manly ($1.44) and North QLD ($2.75) have attracted business at those quotes, while the action on the 7½ point handicap is split down the middle. Finally on league, there has been another of those 'betting scandal' rumours doing the rounds over the past few weeks stemming from the first scoring play in a game a few weeks ago. From our point of view, it's another of those stories that doesn't match the betting on the option being mentioned. The story was that we were one of the bookies 'hit', yet we held less than $500 on that option, of which only $40 was on the winner, that coming in three small bets at $7, hardly a massive betting coup, and another of those stories that has 'grown legs' in bars around the land. TENNIS The French Open is upon us again, and as this is normally our biggest betting tennis tournament of the year, our tennis odds compilers have been busy trying to sort out the good clay court players from the bad. The clay court is the main reason behind the popularity of this event each year, and from a bookmaker's point of view, it is a fabulous event to bet on as there are always a number of upsets. Juan Carlos Ferrero is our $4.25 favourite, and while the Spaniard has a bit of a reputation as an 'under achiever', his recent form, including wins in Valencia and Monte Carlo, is impeccable. Gustavo Kuerten is a previous winner here, and we have kept him safe in the market at $8, along with the Argentinian trio of Guillermo Coria ($11), Gaston Gaudio ($15) and Augustin Calleri, a $26 chance. All three have had pretty good starts to the year on clay, and would not surprise. If there was to be an absolute 'blowout', it might come from another previous winner in Yevgeny Kafelnikov, who we have quoted at $41, but better is available elsewhere. The Russian is in the twilight of his career, but showed during the Master's Series in Rome that he can still mix it with the best. A client from Australia has placed $3000 on Andre Agassi at $8, but in our eyes Agassi is a risk as he is coming into this event with only one match under his belt. Bets of $2000 have been placed on Roger Federer ($9) and Lleyton Hewitt at $13, but the major concern we have with Hewitt is match fitness. Two outsiders in Andy Roddick and Felix Mantilla, both $41, have each been backed to take out close to $50,000, but as yet we haven't seen any money for defending champion Alberto Costa at $34. Costa, along with Carlos Moya ($8), have displayed indifferent form on clay this year, and we are more than happy to risk them. Unfortunately we haven't been able to open the women’s final betting as there is still some conjecture over who is fully fit to play, and who isn't. This will be available after the draw is done. As usual, Centrebet will cover each match of the French Open, with some extra options available on some of the matches where there are short priced favourites. ENTERTAINMENT Carlo, our $1.30 favourite, was sent packing by the public in last Sunday's second eviction on Australian Big Brother. For the second week in a row, we got the favourite right, and also won on the event when the bulk of the bets were for Belinda. Whilst BB may not be faring as well as past BB's from a ratings point of view, we haven't really noticed any decrease in the betting, so it seems as though punters are still keeping a close eye on the antics of the housemates. This week, it's a toss up between the girls as to who gets evicted. Leah has been nominated for the third successive week, and we opened her at $1.40, but Belinda has been the money favourite, now into $2.20 after opening at $3. If the money is right, Daniel ($8) looks safe as he has hardly attracted any business at all. Regina, after a pregnancy scare, is $2.20 to go all the way and win, but this week we have seen over $1000 worth of bets come for Patrick, who is now a $4 chance. Joanne, the 'glamour' of the household, has also been backed this week at $8, and if the indications are correct, this might well be the first time a female wins the Aussie version of BB. Saturday night will see the Eurovision Song Award decided. The serious money is now beginning to arrive on not only to win, but also to be placed and on the head to heads we are offering. Russia maintains favourtism at $5, and while there hasn't been a single large wager at that quote, an Austrian client has had €3000 on a top three finish at $2.20. Spain ($7.50) was the first nation we laid for any significant money when betting first opened, but while we have seen too much since, we have also taken €3500 at $2.75 for Spain to finish amongst the placings at $2.80. A new account holder from Greece has left no doubt where his allegiances lie after having backed the Greek entrant to win close to $70,000. He started betting at $21, and has bet all the way down to $14. A couple of new punters from the Ukraine have done a similar thing, placing their rubles on the Ukraine to win at $51, as well as to be placed at $15. Of those in the top end of the betting, Ireland has been the biggest mover this week, now into $12 after $17 was taken. What has been surprising has been the lack of interest from punters in Norway and Sweden to back their own songs, preferring to bet against them. Jostein Hasselgaard, Norway's rep at $14, has attracted some support, but the $15 for Swedish group 'Fame' has been totally ignored. Our original fancy was Russian duo tATu, but if the bad press they are receiving go against them, then we think that the Swedes can be successful just like ABBA were in the early 70's with 'Waterloo'. RUGBY UNION The much anticipated final between the Blues and the Crusaders has come to fruition after both sides had relatively easy semi-final victories over the weekend. On Friday the Crusaders were clinical in their 39-16 defeat of the Hurricanes, where they managed to control the rucks and keep loose exchanges to a minimum, while on Saturday the Blues had too much class for an under-manned Brumbies unit, winning 42-21, their defence being their highlight. We go to Eden Park this Saturday to a sell out crowd for probably one of the most evenly contested Super 12 finals in recent years. There is no doubt the Crusaders have the experience, and the pack, to go all the way and create history by becoming the first club to win consecutive titles on more than one occasion, but the Blues have had one of the most impressive seasons on record, their only slip up coming at the ‘House of Pain’ in Dunedin back in early April. Centrebet has the Blues $1.70 favourites to win their third Super 12 title, backed in from $1.75, with over $30,000 placed from around the globe. The Crusaders have been easy in the betting to this stage and are now $2.10 but expect support to arrive for them come kick off, as the Blues enter the game without All Black scrum-half, Steve Devine, a loss which could prove crucial in the pressure cooker atmosphere of a Final. No doubt this is a Rugby purists dream, but it will be 80 minutes of agony for bookmakers around the globe as the Blues, and then the Crusaders, were backed almost to the exclusion of all others, to win Super 12 2003. GOLF There is little doubt that this week is one of the most controversial in PGA history, with Annika Sorenstam participating in the Bank of America Colonial as a sponsor invite, the first women to compete on tour for over 60 years. And Vijay Singh has been at the centre of things, firstly with his refusal to compete in the event, and secondly by winning the Byron Nelson Championship last week in Texas, and thereby robbing the event of its major draw card and favourite. Singh obviously had a point to prove in winning the Byron Nelson, and this was picked up by punters as he was backed to win over $30,000. Form coming into the event had held up from the Wachovia Championship the previous week where Singh finished runner-up to David Toms and Nick Price figured prominently. The Bank of America Colonial has been a brisk betting affair with form players Toms, Price, Verplank and Furyk all well supported, but perhaps best backed has been Justin Leonard, with one wager of $1500 each way at $23 from one Australian client and Jeff Sluman, £300 each way at $31, from one of our UK clients. This betting has been stimulated by the appearance of Sorenstam, and the multitude of options we are offering for this tournament. To make the cut has been one of the more popular options where nearly every Swede has backed her to make the cut at $3.50, while astute golfing followers have supported not to make the cut, two wagers of $7000 at $1.25 being typical of the bets laid. Sorenstam’s round one performance is another option which has created interest, and again our Swedish clientele have rallied behind their superstar and taken the $7 for her to shoot under par, while there has been a bet of $10,000 at $1.18 to shoot over par. You can back how many birdies Sorenstam will make in the first round, along with the number of shots taken, as just a few of the betting options offered on this event. Either way its sure to make interesting viewing, and hopefully for the good of the game she acquits herself well. The European event, the Deutsche Bank Open, saw Padraig Harrington win his second event of the season in leading all the way, but not without surviving a scare from a fast finishing Thomas Bjorn on the first hole of a play-off. Tiger Woods was a popular favourite to complete a hat trick of wins in this event, but he had one of his more forgettable events and finished in a tie for 29th. This week is the Volvo PGA Championship at Wentworth, England, and best supported has been Ernie Els, ($3000 each way at $7), along with Bjorn, Clarke and Cabrera. This event features other form players in Goosen, Casey and Lawrie, so it's sure to be an exciting event. On the Champions tour Jay Sigel won his first event for 2003 and only his second since 1998, when he shot a final round 7 under 65 to defeat Mike McCulloch by a shot, with a further shot back to Vicente Fernandez in third place. High profile players, Irwin and Watson were both in a position to win the event entering the final round but failed to deliver. The LPGA tour continues this week at the Corning Classic in New York, where Karrie Webb is a well supported $7 favourite from Patricia Meunier-Lebouc, an in-form Rosie Jones and defending champion Laura Diaz. Although Annika Sorenstam is not competing in the event it is sure to provide its usual share of glamour and excitement. SOCCER Arsenal won a drab FA Cup 1-0 over Southampton last Saturday, but while 'the Gunners' went in as warm $1.50 favourites, the overall result was a small winner for Centrebet, a result that we were extremely happy with. Naturally this was a monstrous betting game, and one where we see a good spread of money from Australians. Two of the bigger bets on the game were both of $20,000 for an Arsenal win, and as it turned out, both came from Sydney. With Arsenal being very easy to sell at $1.50, we saw plenty of money come from Europe for an upset, with one of the bigger bets being 2500 pounds for Southampton at $6.50. Arsenal hammered Southampton 6-1 two weeks ago, and that led punters to believe that the final would also be a goal scoring fest. The 'over' 2.5 goals saw two bets of $10,000 accepted at $1.75, and our popular 'pick the score' option saw an Arsenal 1-0 win blow out to $8.50 from $6.50 as punters were keen to bet on high scores. With only a few lower division playoff matches left, the English season is all but over, but already there has been a heap of early trading on next years Premier League title. There is no prize for guessing the two teams at the top of the betting, and we have already taken several large bets for both Man United ($2.10) and Arsenal at $2.65. Having said that, Man U did get out to $9 at one stage this season, and Arsenal's price also fluctuated throughout the season, so understandably there are those around who are prepared to bet against the pair. Every one of the outsiders has already been backed to win at least $100,000, but we have also seen Liverpool ($ 7.50) and Chelsea ($15) backed to take out nearly half that amount. In Scandinavia, football betting is on the increase as the European competitions close down and the focus is firmly planted on the four major Scandinavian Leagues. After punters well and truly got the better of us on the first two weeks of Norwegian football, we have fought back on the back of a couple very handy draws last week. The heavily backed Viking ($1.75), Tromso ($2.05) and Valerenga ($2) could only draw last Friday on 'Norwegian Day', in what turned out to be a National Day that most punters would not want to remember. This week we had another round of Norwegian Cup, which saw most of the favoured teams win. Rosenborg defeated Clausenengeng 15-0, and that meant that in their three Cup games, Rosenborg have scored 47 goals! In these match, Rosenborg had to concede a handicap of 6 goals, with most money coming for the outsider. It's just a procession of people lining up to back Rosenborg in the Tippeligaen each week, and the opening $1.60 against ODD this week didn't last long early in the week. Now the $1.50 is being taken, and they seem certain to start shorter as we try and get money for ODD. Lyn v Viking looks likely to be a tight match, and we hope it is as we have seen money for both sides to win. Lots of small punters have been backing Lyn at $2.25, but we have taken two bets of 20,000 NOK ($AUD 4000) for Valerenga at $2.60.
Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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