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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Another round of AFL has passed us by, and punters came out well ahead when all the short priced favourites won, with the two 'upsets' of the round, Geelong and the Kangaroos, both meeting with support in their wins. Port got punters off to a flying start when they beat Essendon by 50 points on Friday night, and following that win we have slashed their premiership price to $4.50. The 'Power' were backed from an opening $1.68 into $1.55. With Hird and Lloyd out, the Bombers really were short on talent, but while some stuck with them following a big win the previous week, most of our bigger punters, including one with $12,000, stepped into Port Adelaide thinking that they are a much better side than Hawthorn who Essendon beat the week prior, and they were proven right. We got stuck into Brisbane on Saturday, and for the first half of the game we were giving ourselves a big pat on the back, but the Lions came out in the second half to turn an 11 point deficit into a 77 point thumping of Carlton. Bets of $20,000 and $12,000 went on Brisbane at $1.26, as well as two bets from Victoria totalling just under $20,000 for Brisbane to beat a 25 point handicap. While that was a bad result, Fremantle's 5 goal win over Melbourne went the right way after early support for Freo. The late money was all for Melbourne, even after Jeff White pulled out, and that win was a record fourth in a row for Fremantle. It was also very timely for a Melbourne punter who last week placed $20,000 on Freo to make the final 8, and with them now into $1.25, and on current form, that now looks a sure winner. West Coast showed again why they are a serious contender with a resounding win over Richmond. The Eagles were heavily backed all around the country when it leaked out that Greg Stafford would be out, but a late rally for Richmond, including a bet of $6000 to win at $3.75, and a handicap (25½) bet of $15,000, saw our liabilities cut back a little. Hawthorn are fast running out of friends in the punting ranks as again they were the medium of heavy backing against Geelong, but having said that, there was also money for Geelong from 'Hawthorn detractors'. Hawthorn came in from $1.85 to $1.65 amid bets of $8000 and $5000 (three times), but we also saw bets of $7000 and $5000 for Geelong. At one stage, Hawthorn was $15 to win the premiership, but this week we have laid the Hawks at $10 to win the wooden spoon. On Sunday, whilst we had a win on the Kangaroos game, they did firm up from $2.15 into $2.05 before they defeated Sydney. The Bulldogs gave us a real sight before eventually going down to Adelaide by 16 points, but we either wanted the Bulldogs to win or get belted as a Melbourne punter place two bets totalling $18,000 on the Bulldogs with 38½ points start at $1.90. There has been a lot of tension surrounding this Friday's clash between Port and Collingwood, and that media coverage has made for a good betting contest. Port are always easy to sell at home, and early trading has seen close to $25,000 come in at the $1.48, but Collingwood represent good value at $2.65, and their army of supporters have been keen on that. Fremantle are the shortest priced favourite of the round at $1.12 to beat Carlton, and while that price hasn't been taken by any 'singles' punters, every 'multiple' bet is going through the Dockers, and why not ? We have also seen bets of $3000 and $2500 to say that they can beat the 37 point handicap that has been set. Most of the multiples are also going through Brisbane, who will meet Melbourne at the ‘Gabba’ as Melbourne 'gave up' this fixture to play in QLD. If you remember back to last year, Melbourne won the same match after copping criticism for transferring it, so maybe history will repeat itself? Anyway, we hope it does as there as also been any amount of money for Brisbane to cover the 36½ point handicap. Sunday looks a very hard day on paper at least, but indications are that punters think Adelaide ($1.68) will roll Geelong, and the West Coast ($1.85) will beat Essendon, although if Fletcher, Hird and Lloyd are back for the Bombers, they will be mighty hard to hold out. In the other game, why on earth anyone would want to part with their hard earned cash and back Hawthorn is anybody's guess, but again we have laid them at $2 to beat St Kilda. On the law of averages the Hawks eventually have to get back into the winners list, but we think that the youthful enthusiasm of the Saints will see them victorious. RUGBY LEAGUE Last weekend was a round that most league punters would rather forget as favourite after favourite went over, but there were a couple of sides who won that rewarded those who bet against the form, namely Brisbane and Souths. We didn't really rate Brisbane's chances of beating the Bulldogs too highly on Friday night, but that was not how the punting public saw it as the Bronco's were backed from $2.40 into $2.10. On reflection, the Bulldogs have been lucky to get away with a few wins recently, so maybe their form was flattered by that. We were already standing Brisbane 'over the gap' before bets of $15,000 and $9300 arrived late at $2.12, with the only consolation being a bet of $14,000 for the Bulldogs when they touched $1.65. Brisbane haven't really been 'talked up' as a major title hope, but we have elevated them to $4.50 equal second favourites with the Bulldogs behind the Roosters ($3.20), and if they get through the upcoming Origin series unscathed, we should start to see some serious money for them. Like Hawthorn in the AFL, Parramatta are going through the 'doldrums', the only difference being that the press and the fans have been going easy on the Eels, but for how much longer? Mathematically the Eels can still make the final eight, but they would need to win at least ten of their remaining games, which would require a drastic form reversal. Melbourne were the better side in their 12-10 win over the Eels in sloppy conditions last Saturday, and although Melbourne landed a winning bet of $10,000 with 5.5 points start, it was all Parramatta as they started at $1.53. Later that same night we got an unexpected windfall when a 12 man Cronulla defeated Newcastle 30-24. Things looked good when Cronulla led 14-0, but when Newcastle hit back with two late tries in the first half to lead 16-14 at the major break, and then Cronulla's Paul Gallen was sent off, we were resigned to the fact that a massive plunge on Newcastle was going to come off. Not for the first time however, the team that was playing a man short lifted in the face of adversity, and the Sharks now have their season back on track. Newcastle carried a small fortune in all types of betting options including win bets of $20,000 ($1.33) and $17,000 ($1.30), as well as six individual bets of $10,000 conceding 9½ points start at various odds. While punters were hit between the eyes there, most bounced back on Sunday when Penrith beat Wests Tigers 26-4 in a match that lacked quality, and Souths managed to stay inside the handicap when controversially going down to the Dragons 18-16. From our point of view we were delighted that a late Souths try was disallowed due to a 'double movement' as the Bunnies had been backed from $4.10 into $3, but the narrow Dragons win didn't save us from having to pay out on several big bets, including one of $14,000, for Souths with 11½ points start. This week, Cronulla are $1.55 to continue on with last weeks good work and beat Canberra, but the Raiders continue to have support each week. The price of Canberra hasn't changed from the opening $2.40, but already bets of $6000 and $3000 have arrived for them. It would be fair to say that currently Penrith are the form side of the competition, and given that they defeated the Warriors easily in New Zealand a few weeks ago, that they should carry on with that form when the pair meets at Penrith on Saturday night. Early shoppers see it completely differently, however as after opening at $2.35, close to $20,000 in bets has seen that price disappear, and the Warriors are now into $2.30. Teams coming 'off the bye' have a shocking record this season, so we have to take on the Roosters when they travel to Olympic Park on Sunday. The $1.52 was taken early by bets of $10,000 and $6000, both from Sydney, but as yet we haven't found any serious takers for the -6½ points that the Roosters have to concede. Sunday is also a big day in the 'Sunshine State' when the revamped Suncorp Stadium gets unveiled. The Bronco's will be eager to get a big crowd, and a win, and if history is any guide, then that should happen. Newcastle have to travel there knowing that since they entered the competition in 1988 they have never beaten the Bronco's at home, so it is no real surprise that punters are finding it hard to take the $2.75 we are offering for Newcastle to break that duck. State of Origin betting is open, and in a 'first' since betting became legalised, Queensland are favourites at $1.55 to win the series. In the first 24 hours of betting, nearly $5000 came for the Maroons to win the series as well as the first game at $1.65, with only two $20 bets coming for New South Wales at $2.25. Of course that will change getting closer to game one, but I would have thought that more would have been interested in backing the Blues at some pretty good odds for a change. The Queenslander's hold all the aces at the moment as they have two of the three games at home, the first being a return to Suncorp, they have a terrific squad of “inform” players, and there appears to be a lot of unrest in the NSW camp. We always see the majority of bets for Queensland in these games, but the bigger punters prefer to stick with NSW, so with the switch in favouritism, it will be interesting to see what transpires. RUGBY UNION The Southern Hemisphere's premier rugby competition, Super 12, is over for another year, culminating with Saturday nights memorable final where the Blues prevailed 21-17 over defending champions, the Crusaders. The Crusaders held a handy half-time lead, 10-6, on the back of two tries by hooker Mark Hammett, and although they finished with 3 tries to 2, it was the boot of Carlos Spencer which proved the difference on the night. This was not the free flowing Blues we had come to expect this season, but in the end it was enough for the young outfit to win the Super 12 trophy for the first time since 1997 - when Sean Fitzpatrick and Zinzan Brooke led from the front. Bookmakers are still reeling from one of the most damaging preseason betting coups in recent memory. The Blues were backed to win more than $200,000 with Centrebet alone, in from an opening quote of $15 to start the season a solid $5 second favorite. The only other team punters would hear about was the Crusaders at $2.65, but by the completion of week three, where the Blues had just dominated a slightly depleted Crusaders team, they had firmed into $2.25, a quote which was only to shorten as the season wore on. The other betting coup has been the All Blacks to win the World Cup this year, backed from an opening quote of $3.25 into $2.30 and favorites. On the strength of the New Zealand teams' domination of Super 12, the injuries to key Wallaby personnel, and the recent defeat of England at the hands of the Barbarians, then those astute punters who were quick enough to secure the $3.25 would not exchange their betting tickets for a front row seat at the final in Sydney on November 22nd. FORMULA ONE A good draw on the grid is essential around the tight Monte Carlo Formula One circuit, so we will all be watching with interest how the teams approach the qualifying trials which begin tonight (Thurs), one day ahead of normal. So far since the new rules have come in, we have seen most of the 'lesser lights' perform quickly in the qualifiers as they try and rack up quick times on empty tanks. That is all well and good on spacious circuits, but around the picturesque Monaco circuit, anyone further back than six on the grid ends up hoping for miracles to occur to get through the congestion. Now that the new Ferrari's have shown what they can do, they have to be heavily favoured, and they are with Michael Schumacher at $1.65 ahead of Rubens Barrichello at $6. In a good betting event, both are winners for Centrebet, and it would be nice to keep it that way. Kimi Raikkonen is next in line at $9, and has been back to take out nearly €15,000 by a group of Finnish clients, and a German client has backed Fernando Alonso ($15) and Jarno Trulli ($34) to win just under €20,000. Aussie Mark Webber's improved form has also inspired some support from around the country. The $101 for Webber to win the race was taken this morning with a bet from Melbourne of $400, and that was after we had already seen dozens of smaller bets. Webber has also been backed to take out $25,000 to finish on the podium at $26 with Jenson Button backed to win a similar amount at $21. Qualifying session winners and head to heads will be available Thursday afternoon. ENTERTAINMENT Turkey isn't really a country that jumps out at you when discussions take place about pop music around the world, but Turkey it was who got the gong to win this years Eurovision song contest. Sertab Erener, singing 'Everyway that I can', is one of Turkey's most popular artists, and now she is the 'pin up' girl of many punters as Turkey was backed into $15 after opening at $26. The winner, along with Russia and Spain, were 'losers' in our betting book, but with Belgium getting into second spot behind Turkey, the 'top three' book was a winner even though Russia had a $10,000 bet placed on them to finish in the placing’s at $2.20. The Russian duo, tATu, were also sensationally backed late to win the award, starting at $4 after $6 was available early on Saturday. One of our new clients from Greece who opened his account to bet on the Eurovision, backed the Greek entrant to win in excess of $100,000, but while 'Mando' was showing plenty of cleavage that would have impressed the viewers, it didn't do much for the judging panel as she finished a distant seventeenth. Betting is open on 'Miss Universe', which will be decided in Panama next Tuesday. There was no shortage of guys in the Centrebet office who wanted to have some input into 'doing the form', and coming up with the prices, and for those out there who want to decide for themselves, just go to 'www.missuniverse.com' and see if our assessments were right! This really is a 'raffle' as far as betting goes, but Miss Brazil got the 'big nod' to be the favourite at $9, and has already attracted a few small bets. Miss South Africa opened at $15 and has been backed to win just over $5000, enough to warrant a price change to $11. The Australian entrant, 19 year old Ashlea Talbot from Sydney, is a $21 chance and has already had a few bets placed on her from that part of the world. On the local front, it was no surprise to see Leah get shown the door in the third Big Brother eviction, making it three favourites in three evictions, but more importantly three wins for us! While we keep BB betting to a minimum, we did take a $1000 bet on Belinda at $2.25. That was before all the opinion polls had Leah as 'red hot' to go, and as a result Leah got into $1.30, not so much through betting activity, just our interpretation of what the polls were saying. In a bizarre twist which is turning out to be a promoter's dream, Belinda 'walked' from the house this week. She was second favourite at $7 to be evicted, but those punters lose their money as she chose to leave, and the rule is for the eviction. But that is good news for those who took the opening $1.30 for Ben, as he now looks a certainty after upsetting practically the whole country with his behaviour. GOLF Well it certainly was a week in golf we are not about to forget in a hurry, the hype around Annika Sorenstam playing in a PGA event was unparalleled in recent times. Her first round performance, where she shot a one over par 71, and kept her on the cut line, extended the hype into the second round. Unfortunately she was unable to maintain the high standard she achieved in the first round, and faded with a five over 75 to miss the cut, speaking of which, Sorenstam to “make the cut”, has proven to be the largest supported single golf event, Majors aside, Centrebet has bet on, which is testament to the interest that was generated on this event. The interesting stats which were born from this event is that Sorenstam, while some twenty yards shorter than the average drive on tour, also hits a greater percentage of fairways than the men, and has similar figures in regard to greens in regulation. Her nemesis occurs when she is on the greens. Her putting average for the two rounds was 2.12 while the tournament average was 1.75 per hole. In simple terms, the difference in her putting average equates to some 13 strokes for the two rounds which would have placed Sorenstam in the top 20 at the halfway mark. It is also a part of her game which could be improved as she becomes accustomed to the faster pace of the PGA tour greens. The unfortunate conclusion from this frantic week is that there is no conclusion. Playing in one PGA event offers nothing conclusive as to whether Sorenstam has/has not what it takes to be competitive against the men, and that is the disappointing finale. The Sorenstam hype however clouded the fact that Kenny Perry shot a tournament record 19 under to win his fifth PGA event in 17 years on the tour. His last win was at the 2001 Buick Open, and along with Justin Leonards closing round 61, were in fact the highlights of the tournament. Punters were on the mark again as Leonard and third placed Jeff Sluman were the two best backed competitors in the event. This week we travel to Ohio for The Memorial, where once again Leonard has been well backed, with one wager of $2000 each way at $26, and Robert Allenby has his supporters with one wager of $500 each way at $51. Tiger Woods is a deserved favourite in this event at $3 having completed a hat-trick of victories here between 1999-2001. Jim Furyk is defending champion, and after a tied for fifth at last weeks Colonial, and a host of top ten finishes this year, he too is sure to be in the money. Last week on the European tour, Ignacio Garrido won his first tour event since the 1997 German Open when he beat Trevor Immelman on the first hole of a sudden death play-off. It is Immelman's third play-off this year, and the second time he has been beaten, but it took a sublime chip from the Spaniard and a three putt from Immelman for Garrido to emerge victorious. Mathias Gronberg was three shots further back in third place to continue his good form while Ernie Els finished fourth and moved to the top of the Volvo Order of Merit. We go to Wales this week for the Celtic Manor Resort Wales Open where Colin Montgomerie is $6 favourite as he hopes to return to the winners list. Defending champion Paul Lawrie is not competing, while Dredge and Gronberg, winners on tour this year, should prove hardest to beat. Many players have been well supported including Jacobsen, Ferrie, Khan and Park, which is an indication that this will be an evenly contested event. On the LPGA tour Annika Sorenstam is $2.65 to defend her Kellogg-Keebler Classic title from Karrie Webb at $13, and inform players Loren Ochoa, ($15), Rosie Jones, and last weeks winner, Julie Inkster both $23 hardest to beat. This should be a ‘walk in the park’ for Sorenstam given the events of the last week. TENNIS The start to this year's French Open has been an extremely 'rocky road' as favourite's have dominated, and that is in complete contrast to years gone by. The early exit of Andy Roddick was a good result, but apart from that, all the well known clay courters are still there, and are carrying the hopes of punters world wide! In both the men’s and women’s draw there are always a host of short priced favourites in the early rounds, and the popular way to go there is to couple them up in multiples. On rare occasions we will see a big bet come for one of the 'shorties', and they invariably win, but on Tuesday of this week we took a 'big one' that could quite easily have gone our way. An Australian punter lumped $50,000 on Spaniard Tommy Robredo at $1.18 to beat qualifier Giovanni Lapentti, and with Lapentti ahead two sets to one, we had a fair amount of 'breathing space'. What happened next we don't know, but Lapentti had to retire when down 3-1 in the fourth set, so he must have been injured? Juan Carlos Ferrero maintains favouritism at $3.20 after a straight sets first round win, while the first round wins of Andre Agassi and Lleyton Hewitt, $7 and $11 respectively, has seen punters rally behind both, who are now easily our worst results. Another player who is attracting parochial support is Finland's Jarkko Nieminen, who was one of the best backed first round favourites when he defeated Nicholas Escude, and is now into $34 to win the title. There is absolutely nothing doing at all as far as the women’s title goes, where Serena Williams is still the favorite at $1.90 ahead of 'Aussie' Kim Clijsters. The 'love double' of Clijsters and Lleyton Hewitt has been a well backed combination to win both titles at $65, and Clijsters must be a really good chance of winning the event that she let slip to Jennifer Capriati in 2001 SOCCER Spare a thought for an Australian punter who did all the hard yards with a multiple bet over the weekend, only to fall at the last hurdle when AC Milan won the Champions League title. Our friend took Brisbane, Collingwood and West Coast to win in the AFL, with Rangers to win the Scottish League title, the Auckland Blues to win the Super 12, the NBA game one points total between Dallas and San Antonio to be over 198½ points, and it all culminated with Juventus winning the Champions League outright. He never really had any cause for alarm as the first six went straight to the wire, and we fully expected him to have a 'saver' on AC Milan, but that phone call never arrived. The CL final ended in a 0-0 draw after 90 minutes, went to extra time which saw the score remain goal-less, before AC won a penalty shootout 3-2. Any draw in a final is normally a good result for bookies, and this was no exception. At one point, we 'eased' the draw out to $3, with bets of £4000 and €2500 coming in, but the bulk of big bets was spread evenly between Juventus ($2.40) and AC ($3). 0ne Austrian client predicted a tight match with a bet of $4000 on the draw/draw option, but surprisingly most of the betting on the 'correct score' option was based around either team winning 1-0 or 2-0. Last night (Wed) also saw the first time this season that Rosenborg have failed to come away with the three points in the Norwegian League. Rosenborg firmed from $1.20 into $1.15 on the bag of some monstrous multiples and also had a bet of 50,000 NOK ($AUD 10,000) placed on them to win. Some thought that Lillestrom would be competitive though as we took two 10,000 NOK bets for Rosenborg 'not to win' at $4.50, and when Lillestrom held them to a 1-1 draw, those punters reaped the rewards. In the other match, Viking came from behind to beat Sognal 2-1, and that was good news for favourite backers. Some of the bigger bets for Viking were 60,000 and 50,000 NOK at $1.80, and also 55,000 NOK at $1.75. The rest of the round will be played tonight, and punters have gone for Odd Grenland ($2.20) and Brann ($2.25) to win their matches, so they are the games where we are looking for an upset. The Danish Cup will also be played today, where Brondy are $1.85 to beat Midtjylland ($4.70), with the draw at $3.35. Brondby fans have jumped into that price, but we have noticed that some of our regular winners on Danish football have bet against Brondby, with one placing 10,000 DKK on the away side. Brondby have to play away to Viborg on Sunday, and we are also prepared to risk them in that game at $2.10. But at this stage we have not seen any big bets come. FCK, the team battling it out with Brondby for the title, will host OB in what also is a danger game, but there is one early bet of 42,000 DKK on the home side at $1.67 With most European Competitions either finished, or with only one round to go, the focus is firmly on Scandinavian football, and with Centrebet offering 'singles' on all leagues in Scandinavia, as well as giving clients the opportunity to couple up their team with practically any other sporting event in a multiple bet, we look forward to some interesting battles ahead with punters from that region. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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