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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES St Kilda are now into $16 to emulate the deeds of the 1929 Collingwood side who went through the season proper undefeated. We have done these type of bets before, and the opening quote of $26 was backed to win over $100,000 as soon as it was posted on Monday. The Saints are rolling along nicely at the moment, having won nine in a row, but it is a difficult assignment to go through without a loss as Essendon found out in 2000. That year, the Bombers won their first 20 games before an 11 point loss to the Western Bulldogs, and while St Kilda have an easy one this week in Carlton, they have to travel to Sydney next week, which will be a big test. Last week, each of the five travelling sides were beaten, a trend which many are starting to wake up to. Five favourites saluted, with a solidly backed underdog in Collingwood winning, but most bookies reported either small losses or small wins. The Collingwood v Adelaide game was the worst Friday night betting game we have ever had, no doubt due to the poor form of both sides, and while it wasn't of a high standard, it did provide an exciting finish. Punters came out slightly ahead after Collingwood were backed from $2 into $1.95. Injuries and suspensions to Brisbane saw Fremantle firm from an opening $2 into $1.65 by Friday. Some of the bigger bets included $10,000 at $2 and $15,000 at $1.90, but strangely the late money was for Brisbane, and that came after Jonathon Brown was rubbed out. Maybe the punters thought that this was a rare occasion that the Lions were underdogs and that they would take advantage of that, but they were never a winning hope. We pointed out last week that Essendon were a risky conveyance without James Hird, but unfortunately the Saturday night Fox games don't get the levels of betting of the 'free to air' games, and what should have been a big win for us when the Cats won by 23 points never eventuated. There was some small money for Essendon at $1.55, as well as a multiple including the Bombers of $30,000, but that was the extent of it. Those who took the short odds for Sydney through multiples got the fright of their life on Sunday when the Swans fell over the line by one point against Hawthorn. Sydney were $1.37 to win, and there were two bets of $6000 for them conceding 20½ points start, and they looked on track for a big win when they led by 27 points at quarter time. At this stage, we quoted $1.10 for a Sydney win, which one client took with a wager of $3000 to win $300. In the finish he collected the $300, but would have had a very nervous final few minutes of the game as Hawthorn kept peppering away at goal. This week, a lot depends on two of the games greatest ever players, James Hird and Nathan Buckley. There is a chance both will be back for their respective sides, and that has seen money come for Essendon and Collingwood to win. Essendon opened at $1.50, but when it was announced Hird would be playing, we quickly wheeled their price into $1.40, and that sparked nearly $30,000 worth of bets. Hird has also been backed to win the Brownlow this week, attracting a bet of $2000 on Monday at $7, and that was followed up by a bet of $5000 at $6.50 on Tuesday. It still isn't confirmed that Buckley will play this week, but two early bets of $5000 for Collingwood at $2 to beat the Kangaroos suggest that some think he will be in the Magpie line-up. Brisbane are at home to Melbourne, but this, along with the Bulldogs v Swans game, is one of those situations where the travelling side have 'sold' their home fixture. Melbourne won the corresponding match two years ago when big outsiders, but will travel north with a great deal of confidence to take on a depleted Lions side. Brisbane are slight favourites at $1.75 only because it is at the Gabba, but they are completely friendless in the betting. We have taken a win bet of $20,000 for St Kilda at $1.08 to beat Carlton, and that looks easy money. There has been three bets totaling $12,000 for the Saints to beat a 40½ point handicap, but the scorelines at the Telstra Dome are never really blowouts. The Saints are now outright premiership favourites at $2.85, a price which was taken this week by a Sydney client who invested $4700. Brisbane have eased out to $3.20, ahead of Port at $8.25, but with so many injuries around at the moment, we don't envisage too much premiership betting for a while. RUGBY LEAGUE One of the most contentious changes to rugby league over the past few years has been the 'golden point rule', which allows for extra time in matches, but there is little doubt that nobody in New South Wales would be complaining today about the rule change. Last night's State of Origin opener was a true epic that saw the scores tied at 8 all after 80 minutes. It was then up to Shaun Timmins to break the dead-lock after three minutes of extra time, and that handed NSW a 9-8 victory, and a 1-0 lead in the series. Betting on the game was practically nonexistent up until game day. The off field drama's were the sole reason as league fans pondered what affect it would all have on the result. The general view was that the two late changes into the NSW squad (De Vere and Rooney) were another destabilization, and that is how the market reacted. On Tuesday, we cut Queensland from $2.40 into $2.30, and the ratio of bets coming for QLD (albeit small bets) was running at 10-1 in their favour. On game day, that trend continued, with the Maroons getting into $2.25, but the biggest bet was only $10,000. Occasionally we got a bit from some of our larger punters for NSW conceding 4½ points start. These included bets of $30,000 and $20,000, and in the finish we were looking for a win by NSW between 1-4 points. The gods must have been looking down favourably on us as the 9-8 win by NSW was exactly what we were looking for. The game total was another popular bet type, and saw some interesting bets taken. A group of English based punters placed just under $40,000 on the game total being 'over' 38½ points, obviously taking advantage of some arbitrage opportunities in their own country. That made a good book for us as history shows that the first Origin game is always tight, and that is the way Aussie punters bet, backing the 'under'. Possible longer term injuries to Craig Gower (NSW) and Shane Webcke (QLD) place them in doubt for the return bout in two weeks time, but on what we saw last night, QLD will go into that game as favourites and are going to be mighty hard to beat. As always, betting on the upcoming round has been quiet following the Origin game, but apart from the two mentioned, there may not be any more causalities from last nights match. Brisbane invariably struggle to win any match during this six week period, but on Friday night things have been evened up a bit when they take on a depleted St George Illawarra. The Dragons are proving one big headache for the betting fraternity as they continue to win when they shouldn't, and lose when least expected. The 37-6 win they had over Parramatta last week was impressive, and if they play like that again, they will reward those who have hopped in and taken the 3 points start. Brisbane on the other hand, have been hard to lay at $1.65 simply for the reason that most are backing up, but the betting seems about right. Three separate bets of $5000 were placed early in the week on Newcastle conceding 2½ points start to Melbourne, but the form that the Storm have been in gives us some hope of keeping the cash. They took their time in beating Canberra last week, scoring two tries in the last six minutes to win, but Newcastle are coming off the bye, and we always like to lay those sides. The loss of Gower will be a big blow to Penrith, and as a result of that, they have drifted from $1.58 favourites to beat the Bulldogs to $1.90 your pick. There wasn't any early action on this game, but since Gower pulled out there has been close to $10,000 for the Bulldogs, but they would want to improve on the form they showed last week when going down to the Tigers. GOLF Steve Flesch won his second PGA tour event with a closing round three under par 67 to take out the Bank of America Colonial from Chad Campbell and a fast finishing Stephen Ames. Flesch may have been unwanted in the betting, punters still uncertain if he had recovered from a back ailment which forced him to withdraw from the Byron Nelson Championship the week before, but that did not deter the client who placed $2000 at $4 on him prior to the commencement of the final round. Flesch played solid golf before making bogey on 17 which presented Chad Campbell with an opportunity to narrow the margin, however he too made bogey from a greenside bunker before making birdie on 18 to fall short by a shot. Stephen Ames finished with a six under par 64 to finish a shot further back while other third round hopefuls, Brian Gay and Zach Johnson both failed to get the job done and finished over par and out of the top ten. Scott Verplank and Davis Love, both backed to win over $50,000 failed to get into contention. The tour heads to Tennessee this week for the Fed Ex St Jude Classic where David Toms is $17 to defend the title he won so impressively last year. Stewart Cink is favourite at $13 from Howell, Toms and Triplett all at $17 while Fredrik Jacobson has been well supported at $19, the largest wager to win $20,000. This event has not been well patronised as the field lacks depth, and most of the class players have not been in good form of late. Look to the likes of John Daly and Australian Geoff Ogilvy, who have both been consistent performers this year, to do well, however a first time winner or shock result would not surprise. On the European tour South African Trevor Immelman displayed nerves of steel to hold out Irishman Padraig Harrington, closing with a seven under par 65 and a one shot victory. Both players trailed Frenchman Gregory Havret by two shots entering the final round, however it wasn't long before the pressure told on Havret who finished with a ten over par 82 and in a tie for 23rd. The tournament then developed into a match play shootout with Immelman one hole in front of Harrington, both players going birdie for birdie. Darren Clarke and Ernie Els, who were both sensationally backed, finished in a tie for third and fifth respectively but neither seriously threatened on the final day. Betting after round three was brisk as Harrington was installed favourite at $3.50 and carried one $10,000 from a local client while Havret was $3.75 and Clarke and Immelman both at $5.50. It wasn't long before our hopes lay solely on the shoulders of the South African who proved he had come of age by withstanding the challenge thrown down by Harrington, his birdie on the 72nd hole to win him the tournament a gem. This week the tour heads to England for the Volvo PGA Championship where Els has been installed $5.50 favourite ahead of Vijay Singh at $7 and Darren Clarke at $12 while last weeks winner Trevor Immelman is at $21. Both Els and Clarke have again been the medium of some hefty wagers however neither has been successful in this event in the past and it is without doubt the best field to be assembled on the European tour this year to date, One thing for certain is that it will take some hot golf to win this title and there are several hot golfers in the event. RUGBY UNION The Brumbies finally broke the Crusader hoodoo which had befell them in previous finals series with an emphatic 47-38 victory in the final of the Super 12. The game was never in doubt after Joe Roff crossed after 40 seconds which was followed by a series of tries led by Mark Gerrard's treble, the most notable after some really great hands by the brilliant Fijian lock, Radike Samo, which mesmerised the Crusaders defence. After 18 minutes the Brumbies led 33-0 and the crowd at Canberra Stadium had begun to celebrate however the Crusaders never gave in and after 62 minutes had reduced the lead to just twelve with a 40-28 scoreline. The game was afoot again, and as in the first 40 seconds enter Brumby legend Joe Roff, who scored his second try in the 72nd minute to end the Crusader challenge. This was a memorable final with 13 great tries and a fitting finale for Brumby legends Joe Roff, Mark Bartholomeusz and David Giffen all playing their last game for the Australian franchise however betting on the game never reached great heights with the Brumbies drifting from $1.50 out to $1.58 while the start also drifted from 6½ to 5½, not so much on the strength of money for the Crusaders, which there was some, but more for the fact that there was little for the Brumbies, perhaps as they were without their inspiring Captain Stirling Mortlock. Its not often an Australian betting firm can get to barrack for an Australian team in a final without experiencing a wipe out. Go Brumbies!! ELECTIONS The good news for Australian families emanating form the Budget has been forgotten about, and there has once again been a rally for Labor to win the next election. It seems to be a mix of the situation in Iraq, and also speculation on the future of John Howard, whether or not he will serve out his term if re-elected. That has seen close to $6000 come this week for Labor at $2.20, forcing us back into $2.10, with the Coalition back out to $1.65. In America, President Bush is also under attack for his handling of the whole Iraq position, and that has also affected the betting on the upcoming Presidential election. Bush is now out to $1.75 to regain power, with John Kerry into $1.95. The interesting thing to note is that most of the betting coming for Kerry has come from outside of the USA, so it would seem that all the negativity surrounding America's involvement, and the recent scandals involving their troops, is being frowned upon by punters from outside of the USA. ENTERTAINMENT It was only a matter of time before Igor was shown the door in Australian Big Brother, and although we took $2000 for Igor to be evicted at $1.10 early in the week, we recorded a small win when late money arrived for Terri. There has been a bit of a reshuffle of the overall market as we all start to become aware of the personalities involved, but already it looms as a 'two horse race', between Ryan and Trevor. These two have been at the top of betting since it began, and now Ryan is $2.50 and Trevor at $3.50. Close to $15,000 has already been wagered on the final, and the money has been spread amongst all the housemates, with Catherine ($15) and Krystal ($26) currently the worst results. Paul, who originally was well supported to win the major prize at $11, has blown out to $26 after he began putting a hole in his manners last weekend. He is favoured at $1.70 to be evicted this week, although Terri has come into $2.25 from an opening $3, while both Krystal ($13) and Ashalea ($51) have attracted a handful of bets, so we are faced with what seems an interesting eviction We are also betting on which country will provide the 'Miss Universe' winner. Now here is a legitimate raffle, and we have already taken bets for over 30 of the girls involved. There is a strong sense of parochialism coming through, particularly for Miss Norway ($6) and Miss Australia, an $11 chance. We will be represented by former NRL cheerleader Jennifer Hawkins, and with a lot of the bets for Hawkins coming from Sydney, perhaps they are close friends? Norway will be represented by television presenter Kathrine Soerland who was desperately unlucky when fourth behind Azra Akin at the 2002 Miss World contest. CRICKET The much talked about tour of Zimbabwe by Australia officially got under way on Tuesday of this week. The first one day game saw Australia's best take on what would be the equivalent of a sub district side, but the Zimbabweans put up a fine display to battle their way to 205 runs. The Aussies got there with a tick over 10 overs to spare. Zimbabwe realistically had no hope, and were priced accordingly at $16, with Australia at $1.01. There are always those about who think taking those odds is 'easy' money, and although they were proven correct, I don't think many would have envisaged Zimbabwe getting so many runs, and also that Matthew Hayden would be out for a duck. The biggest bet taken was $30,000 to win $300, while one client from Melbourne placed a successful wager of $3000 for Zimbabwe to make more than 105 runs at $2. Betting is up on the second match, with the match betting identical, but this time the Zimbabwe total is under 160 or over 170. Matthew Hayden has had a bet of $2500 placed on him to make more runs than his opening partner Adam Gilchrist. The first test between England and New Zealand saw a win to the home side in a match that provided plenty of entertainment. The draw had been favourite from before the match started until the start of the last day, and one of our Indian clients had us on the ropes early after investing a total of $60,000 on the draw in three bets before the match started. There was a sprinkling of money for a result either way in the match during the first four days, but when the final day came along, and a result looked likely, a couple of serious bets, including one of $USD 30,000, were placed on England at $1.90. There was also money ($5000) for a draw at $4, and we were left with New Zealand. When the Kiwi's got two early wickets, our hopes were raised, but inspirational innings' by Strauss and Hussein saw the English win. There is some talk going around that Nasser Hussein is going to retire, and with Kiwi bowler Shane Bond in doubt for the second test, betting will open when news comes through on either player. FORMULA ONE The winning run of Michael Schumacher came to a screaming halt in a tunnel in Monaco last Sunday, but he will go around again as a $1.55 shot in this weekends European Grand Prix at Nurbugring. Jarno Trulli ended up dominating the Monaco Grand Prix last week, claiming pole, and holding off a strong challenge from Jenson Button to win the race. After qualifying quickest, Trulli was installed as second pick at $4.50 behind Schumacher at $2.40, and again there was plenty of money to say the German could make it six in a row. What we won on the race itself was given back on our 'podium finish' book as both Trulli and Button had been solid in betting, and we failed to get anything out of Schumacher at the short odds. While it was great to see the Renault and BAR teams fight it out for victory, one has to wonder what has gone wrong at Williams and McLaren. Indeed, the only contribution the Williams team made to the race was being involved in the two key incidents which resulted in the retirements of Michael Schumacher and Fernando Alonso. This week, Schumacher will be keen to get back to winning ways at the track close to where he grew up. We have already taken in excess of $16,000 for Schumacher to win at $1.55, and there is no interest in any other driver. That is quite surprising given the qualifying times and placings from last week. Also, although Schumacher has won this event twice before, it was his brother Ralf who won last year. SOCCER You do not need to tell us that the English FA Cup final between Manchester United and Millwall was one of the most predictable in the competition's 132-year history. We know. Our clients did not restrict themselves to big bets on the Red Devils increasing their total of FA Cup successes to 11. They hit the jackpot on most of the markets that we offered, including correct score (United 3-0 at $7.50), game score (more than two goals at $1.70) and first scorer (Cristiano Ronaldo at $11). Our punters also made a killing in the German Bundesliga match between Monchengladbach and 1860. Bayern's little cousin needed to win so as to stand a chance of avoiding relegation on the final day of the season but the task proved beyond it. We empathised with 1860's fans because their team's loss cost us heavily. Monchengladbach was backed even though it had nothing for which to play other than professional pride. Seemingly, that was sufficient for it to beat 1860. Thankfully, the Spanish Primera Division was a graveyard for our clients. Barcelona ($1.85), Real Madrid ($1.42) and Valencia ($1.57) did not pick up a point between them. The Meringues lost five games in a row before the end of the season. It is the longest losing streak in the club's history. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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