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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES What a difference a week makes in footy. We mentioned last week how Brisbane were struggling at the bottom of the ladder and how they’d blown out to $12 in premiership betting. Well it’s all turned around for the Lions following a convincing win over Essendon. On the back of that performance against the Bombers, Brisbane are now $7.50 to win the flag. Jonathan Brown kicked 8 goals in his first match of the season, veteran coach Leigh Matthews has signed a contract extension and all of a sudden the Lions are back in contention in one of the most open seasons of AFL in recent memory. The Lions were well supported in their clash with Essendon including one bet of $20,000 at $1.72. That punter never really had any concerns as Brisbane went on to win by 48 points at the Telstra Dome. Melbourne suffered a shock defeat at the hands of Fremantle at the MCG proving what a nightmare season it has been for both punters and bookies alike. One client had $30,000 on the Demons at $1.20 and would’ve been a feeling a little sick and sorry as the Dockers recorded a rare win in Melbourne. Despite being described as an “ugly” side by just about everyone in AFL circles, including CEO, Andrew Demetriou the Sydney Swans have been well backed to defeat Essendon at Telstra Stadium this weekend. The Swans are into a $1.37 after opening at $1.40 and hold one bet of $25,000. Brisbane are well supported despite their short quote of $1.14 to defeat the Bulldogs at the Gabba. One client has had $20,000 on at that price. Geelong have had some supporters at -4 ½ against St Kilda. We’re surprised to see the Saints friendless in betting so far especially as they welcome back skipper Nick Riewoldt from injury. RUGBY LEAGUE Despite all the upsets in the opening few weeks of the competition, punters obviously weren’t too concerned as they wagered over one million dollars on matches last weekend, which is a season high for turnover. They were on the mark too with five of the seven favourites getting the cash and covering the handicap in round eight matches. The weekend started badly with Brisbane in devastating form downing Manly by 26 points at home. All the money was for the Broncos including one bet of $50,000 conceding 7 ½ start. We managed to get some money back in the upset result of the round when the Sharks traveled to Melbourne and came away winners by 30-10. Having said that the Sharks did come in for late support with 6 ½ start. St George Illawarra came from 12 points down to defeat Wests Tigers 40-32 in a game of touch at Telstra Stadium. Punters were keen to take the $1.45 and give up 6½ point-start for the Dragons as their priced plummeted into $1.39, including $50,000 conceding the handicap. This proved to be our biggest stand of the season so far so the Tigers capitulation in the last ten minutes was not well received here. There’s been little interest in the City v Country fixture in Lismore with punters unsure of what kind of intensity the game will be played at. Betting has Country favourites at $1.68 and conceding 3 ½ start. City are the outsiders at $2.20. The weekend’s NRL fixtures have also been poorly supported with punters keen to wait and see which players will back up from the representative fixture. St George Illawarra are the best supported team as they host Souths in the first match of the weekend. The Dragons are $1.38 and conceding 8 ½ start. RUGBY UNION The try-fest in Christchurch last week gave the punters a good bank heading into the remaining five games of Round 10 of the Super 12. Not deterred by the Crusaders performance against the Cats the previous week our clients came consistently for the home team against the hapless Sharks and forced us to firm the line from 22.5 to 24.5. Needless to say we didn’t keep much of the $100,000 held on the game. The Bulls kept their semi-final hopes alive by outscoring the Blues at altitude. The 14 point victory was a nice result for the South African client who had $4,000 on the Bulls 13+ at $4.25 early in the week. It’s not often we cheer for the Waratahs but with our New Zealand clients launching into the Highlanders we had a change of heart. The one way traffic forced the price for Highlanders in from $1.90 to a starting price of $1.77. Needless to say we were happy campers when the Waratahs won by 21 points. This week the Blues are returning from their safari in South Africa and host the Hurricanes in Auckland. Both teams are playing for a semi-final spot and the betting is relatively close. Early trends indicate that the Blues may firm even further. Our opening quote of $1.77 was taken with a $10,000 bet and we’ve seen another $15,000 in a series of wagers which has now firmed the price into $1.73. The Waratahs are in rare form and are breaking all sorts of records and hoodoos this season. The well discussed fact that NSW struggle against the Reds has not deterred a few of our clients. The 14 ½ handicap is very popular with our larger clients (2x$5,000 and 1x$8,000) while our smaller clients are having nibbles at the $5.25 on offer about Queensland maintaining their unbeaten run. We thought the Brumbies might struggle against the in-form Chiefs. Not so says a client from the Nation’s Capital who has wagered $10,000 on the ACT conceding 6 ½ point start and $12,000 on the outright win at $1.48. GOLF Tim Petrovic's maiden victory in last weeks Zurich Classic of New Orleans was the fourth time in the last five events a play-off was required to decide the winner Petrovic defeated tour rookie James Driscoll on the first extra hole of sudden death. He required a four foot putt for par to secure the win after sinking an 18 foot birdie putt on the final hole of regulation play. Chris DiMarco, the tournament leader after 54 holes and $2.75 favourite bogeyed the final hole after missing a 12 foot birdie attempt and missed out on the play-off. DiMarco has had six runner-up finishes on the tour since winning the Phoenix Open in 2002. After laying our largest single wager on a golf event, $60,000 on Vijay Singh at $3.50 the defending champion could not kick start his final round and faltered to finish in a tie for 21st. Apart from the bet on Singh it was the worst betting event of what has been a very good season. The big guns return to the tour this week where Tiger Woods heads the betting at $4.25 to win the Wachovia Championship. Next in the betting are in form pair Phil Mickelson and Vijay Singh at $8, with both backed to win in excess of $100,000 by our in form golf follower. Woods also has attracted attention including one $5,000 bet at his opening quote with many of the rank and file believing he can repeat his win at the US Masters. On the European tour, Ernie Els showed his liking for Asia with an emphatic 13 shot win in the Asian Open. Els fired a final round seven under par 65 to finish the tournament 26 under, a new tournament record. Els was backed to win 150k by our big betting golf client and he was never under pressure as the South African led from day one after firing an opening round ten under 62. The tour heads back to Europe this week for the Italia Open where defending champion Graeme McDowell is favourite at $9 ahead of Angel Cabrera at $13 and American Mark Calcavecchia at $15. McDowell has been well supported along with Gary Orr at $51 and Swede Peter Gustafsson at $61. All have been backed to win 100k in what should be an even event. ENTERTAINMENT New Zealand is the latest country to catch the celebrity dancing bug so we have put up odds on the Kiwi version of Dancing with the Stars. Former Shortland Street soapies Theresa Healey and Shane Cortese are our favourites after the first show of the series. Healey, Cortese and glamour girl Nicky Watson look like the three strongest dancers but as we have seen on several shows like this in the past, attractive women rarely win. For every Bec Cartwright, there are dozens of Holly Brisleys. Consequently, Watson ranks below former All Blacks hooker Norm Hewitt. The ex-New Zealand Maori Rugby Union captain is one of the eight New Zealand stars dancing the light fantastic. Also taking part is the world's first transsexual parliamentarian, Georgina Beyer. Our My Restaurant Rules market changed dramatically after the female contestants nominated Brisbane and Sydney for elimination. Adelaide and Melbourne moved to the top of our list with Brisbane ranking just above Sydney. Our book will re-open on Sunday, just an hour or so before we start betting on the fifth Australian series of Big Brother. Assume nothing. Expect anything. Hungary is the one that Eurovision Song Contest punters want and Random are long odds on to take out The X Factor. We will frame Miss Universe odds as soon as the full field is released. ELECTIONS Labour was the hottest-ever favourite for a British general election before voters in the United Kingdom went to polls. British Prime Minister Tony Blair's personal rating is at an all-time low, Gordon Brown is eyeing off his leader's job and many Labour backbenchers are aghast at their party's foreign policy. Nonetheless, our clients bet large sums at short prices on the Blair-led British government remaining the biggest parliamentary party following the ballot. One politics punter wagered $100,000 at 1.06 that Labour outperformed its opponents and there were many more five-figure bets at low odds. Such is the shocking state of the Conservative Party that 300 Australian dollars was the largest single wager that we fielded for the Tories with most analysts viewing its chief, Michael Howard, as unelectable. One of the most boring elections ever is now over. Until next week, good punting For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or
centrebet@centrebet.com
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