|
|
|
||
|
Aussie
Rules
|
Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES One punter from New South Wales would be extremely thankful that Collingwood capitulated in the last quarter against Richmond at the weekend as he lined up for a payout of $98,600. The person in question took a multiple of St George Illawarra (NRL), Geelong, West Coast all to win (and they did) into Richmond conceding 28 ½ points. The outlay was $20,000 at $4.93. Richmond trailed for most of the game, down by 14 points at half-time and 10 points at the last break. In a low scoring game we were entitled to think that we had the cash. There were also another three bets of $10,000 (one at -26 ½, two at -28 ½) for Richmond to worry about. Low and behold, the now fearless Tigers came out and booted 8 goals in the last quarter to not only win but take the margin out to 35 points. Although there were some favourites beaten for the weekend most of the bigger multi's coupled up Geelong, West Coast and Richmond but the way punters have been going this season, we couldn't really begrudge them a win. The upcoming round is littered with hot favourites with four being $1.27 or shorter when betting opened on Tuesday. Punters showed their intentions early with nearly $25,000 traded in the first 24 hours coupling up all the short priced favourites. St Kilda is $1.27 to get the ball rolling against Adelaide on Friday night. The price hasn't turned many away, nor the handicap of -22 ½ as we have taken two bets totaling $9000 at that price. Carlton would have trouble winning an egg and spoon race at the moment but don't write the Blues off this week against Melbourne. This will be Carlton's last ever game at Optus Oval and these type of occasions have a funny way of lifting sides. We are keen to take Melbourne on at the $1.62 but there hasn't been a lot of interest. Punters should be warned while the Western Bulldogs are listed first in this week’s fixture against Sydney, the game will in fact be played at the SCG. That’s why the Bulldogs are at $2.30. We have already taken two $4000 bets for them at that price but money always arrives late in the week for the Swans. RUGBY LEAGUE Over 400 points were scored in the 10th round of the NRL but it was interesting to note that the losing sides only scored 32 points in the second half between them. Three of those sides: Penrith, North Queensland and Canberra all led at half-time. Ironically we wanted all three to win so we weren't happy with the second half fade outs. Most of the bigger bets came on the Friday night game for St George Illawarra. Bets of $30,000 and two of $20,000 were taken conceding 8 ½ point-start and we were looking good when Penrith led 10-8 at half time. The Dragons however, went on a second half rampage and won 34-12. Although we were tipping Manly to beat the Bulldogs we got caught up on the tail end of a nation-wide plunge when the Eagles won 18-10. On the other side of the ledger bets of $15,000 and $12,000 came for the Bulldogs as well as two wagers of $20,000 conceding 3 ½ point-start so it was still a good result. The Queensland derby proved to be an interesting betting affair. We posted the game at $1.90 take your pick with 75% of the business being for the Cowboys. They moved into slight favourites at $1.88 just before the game started at which point a regular from NSW placed $30,000 on Brisbane at $1.92. The Broncos went on to win 23-6 to confirm their status as premiership favourites. The first State of Origin game is open and QLD are slight favourites at $1.85 with NSW at $1.95. It looks even on paper and so is the betting. Of the $10,000 bet so far each side has attracted 50% of the bets. Also of interest is we haven't taken a single bet over $1000 yet, probably because it is just too hard to pick for the bigger punters. With the Origin players forced to sit out this week pricing round eleven was a difficult assignment. These rounds each year are either very volatile or quiet and this week they have been pretty quiet. The only significant bets so far have been $10,000 on New Zealand at -11 ½ against Souths and $9000 for St George Illawarra conceding a 5 ½ point-start to Newcastle. RUGBY UNION The semi-finals of the Super 12 competition are upon us with one of the matches to be contested allowing punters and bookies the luxury of already having viewed the full dress rehearsal. The Crusaders rarely looked troubled in last week’s match against the Hurricanes (who they’ll play again this week) in Christchurch with punters very keen to take the $1.20 on offer. Some of the bigger bets included two wagers of $10,000 on the home side conceding a healthy handicap. New South Wales were also well supported to win their clash against the injury ravaged Blues side, both to win and giving up 8 ½ point-start. We managed to escape with a small win as the ‘Tahs’ managed to win by just five points. In this week’s first semi, the Crusaders are giving the Hurricanes 11 ½ start and a lot of our clients think this is too light. Within the first 24 hours of trade we are already holding over $45,000 on the match and it is all for the home side. The biggest bet so far is $15,000 on the Crusaders at $1.23 to win and there’s another two $10,000 bets on the handicap conceding 11 ½ at $1.90. If the trend continues expect the Crusaders to get out past -12 ½ by tomorrow afternoon. The Waratahs showed last week that some of the old demons still exist. The well documented “penalty goal” decision has left the Waratahs a little flat. The Bulls after posting a 75-14 victory over the Stormers have lobbed into town ready to have a red-hot go. In another game where early money is-a-plenty, the Waratahs have been backed from 7 ½ favourites into 8 ½. The win price has also firmed from $1.40 into $1.37 on the back of over $35,000 in wagers. FOOTBALL Chelsea are the English Champions for season 2004/2005 but it will be the other two of 'the big three', Arsenal and Manchester United who will come face to face in this Saturday's FA Cup final. This will be the first time since 1979 that these two big clubs have met in an FA Cup final and it will also be the last time that the final will be played in Cardiff. Next year’s final is due to be played at the 'new' Wembley Stadium. Man United have beaten Arsenal twice this season already including an ill-tempered 2-0 victory at Old Trafford that ended Arsenal's unbeaten run of 49 matches. Arsenal are the favourites to hold the Cup at $1.80 which has attracted two $10,000 bets from Australian clients but most of the bets this week have been for Man United at $2.00 following confirmation Thierry Henry would be out of the Arsenal side. In the 90 minutes betting option some big bets have come for Man United including $12,000 and $10,000 at $2.75 with a bet of €5000 coming for Arsenal at $2.50. The draw ($3.20) hasn't been touched to any great degree but we are always happy to have the draw on our side in big finals. All the usual betting options and a few extras will be available on the final with 'live' betting right up until the 80 minute mark. TENNIS Next week signals the start of the second ‘major’ of the year as the clay court season reaches it’s climax in the shape of the French Open at Roland Garros. Spanish teenager Rafael Nadal and Swiss sensation Roger Federer are equal favourites at $3.50 for the men’s title while Justine Henin-Hardene tops the women’s market at $2.50. Nadal has been in scintillating form so far this season on clay with an imposing win/loss record of 31 victories and just two defeats. The winning stretch has included five titles along the way but he’s yet to face Federer. The world number one is not completely comfortable on the red surface as he’s yet to advance past the quarter finals at Roland Garros. Guillermo Coria has been improving with every tournament and represents good value at $4.50. We have seen some money come for the local hope, Richard Gasquet, at $17. The 19 year-old is considered a future top ten hope but we’re just waiting to see how he copes with the pressure of grand slam tennis. There’s been little money invested on the women’s side of things with 2003 winner Henin-Hardene a clear favourite ahead of the under-achieving local, Amelie Mauresmo. We are certain as the tournament draws closer we’ll see plenty of support for the strong Russian contingent. GOLF Ted Purdy beat US PGA tour rookie Sean O'Hair to capture his maiden tour title in the Byron Nelson Classic giving us a much needed win on a golf tournament for a change. Purdy joins Padraig Harrington, Tim Petrovic and Australians Geoff Ogilvy and Peter Lonard as first time winners on the tour this year. All the hype was about the ‘big five’, Woods, Singh, Els, Mickelson and Goosen, playing together for only the third time this season. That hype was accompanied with a lot of support from the punting public as all except Woods were backed to win in excess of $100,000. Ironically, Woods was friendless in the betting. The lack of support was matched with a lack of form as Tiger missed the cut for the first time in seven years. The event this week is the Colonial Classic in Texas. The defending champion is Steve Flesch at $67 while Phil Mickelson ($6) and Jim Furyk ($13) have both been backed to win in excess of $100,000. The field looks fairly even, with perhaps Kenny Perry ($23) the value bet as he is the best performed player in recent years at this venue with a win in 2003 and he finished runner up in 2001. Last week on the European tour Thomas Bjorn won his 8th tour event when he defeated Englishmen David Howell and Brian Davis in a sudden death play-off at the Dunlop Masters. Darren Clarke and Sweden's Anders and Soren Hansen were well supported in this event and at different stages during the final round threatened to play a hand in the finish, before making some crucial errors. Both Clarke and Soren Hansen have been well supported in this week’s Irish Open by the same punter at $9 and $51 respectively. However, they will find stoic resistance in the form of local hero Padraig Harrington who is the favourite at $8, in event he’s always wanted to win. FORMULA ONE The 'jewel in the crown' of Formula One racing is the Monaco Grand Prix and the playground of the rich and famous will really come alive this weekend when they host the F1 cars. It will be interesting to see what tact the teams adopt this week as qualifying has changed so much this year with the new rules. We can only do the form from the past few races and assume that the quicker cars in those sessions will again be at the front of the grid in Monaco. McLaren's Kimi Raikonnen is the favourite at $3.00 after blitzing the field in Barcelona a fortnight ago. Punters agree as he has attracted nearly 50% of the early bets. Fernando Alonso lines up as second elect at $3.50 and while he has only had a handful of smallish bets placed on him to win at that quote, he has had two bets totaling €4000 placed on him to finish on the podium at $1.50. The erratic Juan Pablo Montoya has had a big bet of €2500 placed on him to finish amongst the place getters at $3.50 but nothing to win the race at $11.00. Michael Schumacher is a five-time winner of the Monaco Grand Prix but it looks like the betting public have temporarily lost faith in the reliability of Ferrari as Schumacher ($4.60) and teammate Rubens Barrichello ($17) are virtually unlayable. MISS UNIVERSE Once again there was a fight in the Centrebet office to see who would do the 'form' for the Miss Universe contest. Once we sorted that out, the betting opened and it’s been busy. Miss Universe is a little bit different to other pageants in so much that it is run by Donald Trump, which may explain why the Miss USA representative always makes the final 15. Our own Jennifer Hawkins won last year and as no country has ever provided back to back winners, we posted Miss Australia, Michelle Guy, as a $101 chance. There have been a few small bets placed on Michelle but nothing like what we saw for Jennifer Hawkins last year. Miss Puerto Rico is the favourite at $6 ahead of Miss Dominican Republic and Miss Canada at $7 and $9 respectively. The ladies from Peru ($26), Latvia, Lebanon and Albania (all at $51), along with Italy and Namibia at $101 have all been backed to win around $10,000. Ten of the 84 contestants competed in the recent Miss World pageant. For those who want to do a bit of 'form' before having a bet visit www.globalbeauties.com EUROVISION SONG CONTEST Norwegian band, Wig Wam, have been the big movers in the Eurovision Song Contest after some good reviews following rehearsals. The Norwegian entrant was a $5.50 chance last week but on the back of those positive reports and some heavy parochial backing, we have cut the price to $4.50. The ruling favourite is Greece represented by Helen Paparizou who will be singing 'My Number One'. Greece was $7.00 when betting opened two weeks ago but is now into $3.25. Some of the bigger bets include €1000 to win at $4.00 and a bet of €6000 to finish in the top four at $1.65. One of the best backed countries to date has been Hungary who firmed from $13 to $5.00 before easing out to $7.00. ENTERTAINMENT Series five of Australian Big Brother looks destined to be one of the better ones but just how long can the shocks keep coming? This week we have had twins posing as imposters, two early evictions due to housemates telling lies and now leaked news that there are another six intruders in lockdown mode. The show has got it all and has sparked plenty of betting interest with already close to $10,000 being bet on the series so far. Glenn, the sheep shearer from Stawell in Victoria, is now the very warm favourite. We posted Glenn at $2.75 after Tuesday’s eviction show and that price was taken with bets of $1200 and $500. Logan (the twins) is still one person for the current purposes of betting and they have been backed to take out $7500 in the past week. Michael ($8) and Kate ($11) are the only other two to attract the attention of punters. Apart from Kate, the females are at the bottom end of the betting and the signs are ominous that the women will struggle in yet another reality show. The official poll from Tuesday’s eviction gave us another insight into the demographic of the voters when Constance received 44% of the vote. We’ve posted Angela at $1.65 to be evicted this weekend. Angela isn’t the most popular of housemates and it looks like the punters are sick of her as well. Nearly $3000 in a series of bets has forced her price into $1.25 and there’s little or no support for any of the others. Looks like Angela will be packing her bags on Sunday night! Controversy has also surrounded My Restaurant Rules as we enter the final stretch to find out which couple will get to keep their restaurant. Adelaide got a free ticket into the final when the judges allocated them top billing after their reviews so ‘The Greedy Goose’ are the new favourites (the fourth) at $1.80. Sydney was narrowly beaten in that vote and are second picks at $2.50 with Melbourne the outsiders of the trio at $6. The last time there was a public vote involving Melbourne they narrowly missed closure when Perth were forced to shut down. This has been an interesting series and it doesn't really matter which city is up against Adelaide in the final there is sure to be plenty of betting fireworks. GREYHOUND RACING Cranbourne trainer Darren McDonald has dominated Group One greyhound racing in Victoria over the past two years and he should add another trophy to the cabinet on Saturday night. McDonald will be represented in the Maturity Final by Pure Octane and having drawn the coveted red box the recent Australian Cup winner is all the rage at $1.40. Pure Octane has good beginners to his immediate right in Plastered ($7), Malthouse ($15) and Hoot's Mun ($6) but he is such a powerful railer and strong finisher that he could camp on the pace and still be too quick. The stayers will be in action on Thursday night when the Sandown Cup will be run. It is an intriguing race as two of Victoria's most accomplished sprinters, Trewly Special and Lukeamy, made their distance debuts in the heats last week, with the former running second and the latter winning. Rocky is the co- favourite at $3.75 but he could be in trouble with the two sprinters drawn on his outside. Texas Gold is the equal favourite and he could be the best stayer we have seen for years, he just has to try and avoid the early scrimmage from the four box. Until next week, good punting For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or
centrebet@centrebet.com
|
||
