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FROM CENTREBET

Centrebet Capers
Posted 11:00 AM, May 5, 2006

 

RUGBY LEAGUE

With the Test match between Australia and New Zealand due to be played on Friday night, betting for the weekend's round is somewhat confused.

Players are allowed to back up from the Test but we have taken the steps of not opening two games, Newcastle and Brisbane and Wests Tigers v Manly, due to two factors- Andrew Johns and Benji Marshall.

Betting will open on Saturday after its known how each Test player has recovered, as some are crucial in determining the prices for weekend games. If Johns plays for the Knights, then they will be around the 1.60 mark and will probably beat Brisbane. If he doesn't back up, then the Broncos will be favourites and should win.

Realistically, we are faced with the same scenario in the Tigers game. Marshall will be having his first game back from a serious shoulder injury and you'd think he'll get a good work out. The Tigers have struggled without him and Manly are now considered a real premiership threat. If Marshall backs up, there will be very little in the betting, if not, the Eagles go in as pronounced favourites.

Finally, the Sharks put it all together last week and maybe they might go on with it? Brett Kimmorley is still out but Adam Dykes has been playing well enough to say that the Sharks can beat the Dragons this week. Ben Ross is a big loss but the Dragons have been so hot and cold this year, punters have lost faith in them. They opened favourites at 1.75 but there have been no takers yet.

AUSTRALIAN RULES

We consider the Saints to be very risky conveyances against the Bulldogs on Saturday. The Bulldogs can be forgiven for last week's defeat as they always seem to lose in Adelaide and are returning to their happy hunting ground, Telstra Dome.

Big money has already been placed on Geelong to bounce back into the winner's circle on Friday night. We are happy to take the punters on here as Melbourne have had a couple of solid wins and seem to be coping well without David Neitz.

The derby in the West will see the Eagles go in as warm favourites over Freo. The Eagles won encounters last year, one by eight points and the other by eight goals. With all the dramas Fremantle have had in the last few days as well as having to return from Tassie we are tipping another big Eagles victory.

The 'Showdown' in Adelaide has a similar set of prices to the game in the West with the Crows being very warm 1.30 chances. They come into this match having won all three encounters against Port last season. Looking at the form shown so far this season, it all points towards an Adelaide win.

In the final game, its arch rivals Carlton and Collingwood to do battle. Even the most ardent Carlton fan (of which I am one) would say the Blues are up against it this time around and that is reflected in the odds. Collingwood are the shortest priced favourite of the round at 1.18 and should win easily.

DANCING WITH THE STARS

One time favourite Toby Allen was this week's casualty so it will now be a showdown between Grant Denyer and Kostya Tszyu.

Those who follow the betting trends may not be surprised, as Kostya has been attracting bets all the way through, even though he is clearly an inferior dancer to Toby Allen.
Grant Denyer is now 1.33 to give Channel 7 their fourth winner of the show, something that we identified as a factor right at the start. Denyer is a popular personality and can actually fire at dancing as well so it isn't really a surprise to see punters wanting to be on him.

The biggest bets taken this week have been $1500 at 1.40 and two $3000 bets at 1.33. Kostya has admirers and there have been dozens of bets for him at 3.00, including one of $600.

BIG BROTHER

There will be a double eviction on Big Brother this week and Elise (1.18) along with Tilli (1.61) are the two fancies to be shown the door.

David remains BB favourite at 3.25 and there has been solid support for him since the gay bashing story was circulated last week. The betting apart from David has been all over the place with Kate now the second pick at 5.00 with Jamie at 6.00.

Katie was a 21.00 chance last week and Jamie was the complete outsider at 34.00 when betting was first opened but each has been backed to win over $20,000. The mother and daughter combo of Krystal and Karen have been treated differently by punters. Krystal (daughter) has been surprisingly well backed at 9.00 whereas Karen has drifted right out to 17.00.

Until next week, good punting For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or centrebet@centrebet.com

 

MAY 2006 ARTICLES

Centrebet Capers Centrebet 11:00 05/05/06

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