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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
RUGBY LEAGUE Each week tipping in the NRL seems to be getting harder and harder. This week we have the added bonus that many key players will be in Dubbo on Friday night for the City and Country clash. The Dragons are in crisis with form and injury concerns and they are no good things to get over the Warriors on Saturday. They have been priced that way as well and the proof is in the lack of interest in the Dragons in the early stages of betting. It's a real danger game this one and either side could win. Parramatta has only won six of their last sixteen away matches and none this year. Punters and bookies alike think they will uphold that record when they take on the Bulldogs at Telstra on Sunday. The Dogs are warm favourites and we can't find a cracker for the Eels. Souths are the 2.90 outsiders against Penrith and the early money has been for them to spring an upset. The Panthers will have a swag of players backing up but we think they should have enough manpower to win. The last match should be an intriguing battle between the Tigers and the Knights. We couldn't split the pair in betting, with both quoted at 1.90. Anything can happen when you get two free scoring teams on the field together, so we will sit on the fence in this one. AUSTRALIAN RULES Geelong has their backs to the wall and AFL punters think St Kilda will beat them on Friday night. Melbourne will go in as the slightest of favourites against Fremantle on Saturday but we think the Dockers can win. In this fixture last year, Melbourne were 1.20 chances and went down in a high scoring match. The Dockers will miss big Sandilands but they would have taken a lot of confidence out of last week's win against the West Coast. Sydney are back in town, or are they? They have strung together a couple of wins but Richmond never give up so this clash could go either way. Richmond squandered a stack of chances last week before winning by two points and we think that they can just scrape home again. The Magpie faithful are using the 'f' word (flag) but the betting would suggest they will come back to earth with a thud this week. They travel west to take on the Eagles, who will be keen to atone for last week's loss. In early betting we can't find a punter who thinks Collingwood can win so maybe another victory for the Eagles. The Kangaroos were down and out in the first quarter against Hawthorn last week but got up of the canvas. They won't want to be giving Adelaide a similar start this week or they will be on the receiving end of a flogging. Oddly enough, there is never a lot between these two sides but from what we have seen this year and early punters agree it will be a Crows win. BOXING With less than a week to go before the long awaited battle between Anthony Mundine and Danny Green the big money is beginning to roll in. From a betting angle, this will be the biggest fight ever held in Australia and the closeness of the prices can only see all those records broken. There has been little movement in the prices for some two months but that isn't due to lack of business, in fact it is quite the opposite. Mundine is 1.65 with another $4000 bet arriving this week at that quote, as well as another $2000 wager for him to win by KO at 3.60. Green is easy to sell at 2.25 including bets of $4000 and $3300 over the past fortnight. There is also money for Green to win by KO with the largest of those bets being $1200 at 3.50, while we have taken another $1000 bet for a draw at 18.00. DANCING WITH THE STARS It didn't really come as a surprise to many the Grant Denyer waltzed away with the Dancing with the Stars trophy on Tuesday night. We identified several weeks ago that he was definitely the punters elect and when he went into the final against Kostya Tszyu, punters were prepared to take the short odds. Grant was backed from 1.33 into 1.28 with the biggest bet being $3000 at 1.30. Kostya did have his share of admirers when the priced touched 3.50. It will be interesting to see what celebrities are produced for the next series, as a lot of the talk this week has focused on the fact that Channel 7 personalities have now won all four series. This week we also opened betting on New Zealand DWTS. Beatrice Faumina, 'Queen Bea', is our 3.00 favourite. We haven't taken many bets so far (less than $1000) but the start of each of these series can be sometimes slow until the fans work out who can dance and of course who is popular. Glamour Lorraine Downes is the outsider of the field at 21.00 and has attracted the most bets so far. Former model Nicki Watson was the first casualty in the first of the series, while we all know what happened to Jennifer Hawkins in this Australian series. BIG BROTHER Elise and Tilli were the two favourites to be first evicted from the Big Brother household and that is exactly what happened. From what we have seen, all bar Katie will be in jeopardy when up for eviction, as this series is loaded with good looking females and they just don't last very long in this type of format. Katie has gone from being the outsider when betting opened (26.00) to the new favourite at 3.50 and has been backed to win close to $25,000. She is really the only female that punters are interested in with nearly 90% of the bets spread amongst all the males. Jamie (7.00) and John (11.00) have been the best backed of the male but we still have David the shortest at 3.75. It looks likely that Michael is going to be the most hated ever housemate with all the devious deeds that BB has him doing but he has to be well up in the betting at 13.00. Once the truth comes out, maybe the others will be sympathetic or maybe they will turn, who knows? THE LOGIES The late plunge on Kate Ritchie failed to come off when veteran John Wood grabbed the Gold Logie on Sunday night. Kate had been backed from 26.00 into 4.50 and even that was being taken when betting closed on Friday. Favourite Rove McManus was still popular elect with punters and the last two bets taken on Rove were $1500 and $1000 at 2.00. Wood had plenty of support as well, with the largest bet under his name being $1200 at 3.25. Close to $25,000 was wagered on the Logies and while John Wood was always the second favourite, his win was a good result for us. Until next week, good punting For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or centrebet@centrebet.com
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