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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
RUGBY LEAGUE The first State of Origin match gets under way tonight (Wed) in Sydney and the match seems to have had everything even before the players take the field. In an amazing turn of events we’ve got two new coaches, a stack of Origin debutantes for Queensland, injuries to New South Wales and the possible recall of Andrew Johns. Johns knocked the selectors back last night when they were looking for a replacement for the injured Craig Gower and while all that was going on, betting was suspended. Had Johns gone into the side, NSW would have shortened dramatically to about 1.45 but now that Brett Finch has accepted the role, they have drifted from 1.80 out to 1.90, to be equal favourites with Queensland. Since betting reopened, the ratio of bets coming in Queensland’s favour is 5-1 so it now looks like they will go into game one as favourites and that is unbelievable considering they have never won at Telstra Stadium in ten previous matches. Records are made to be broken and this is one that punters think will go tonight. The bigger league punters always wait until game day at Origin time but with this latest development, they may well keep out, and who could blame them? The Blues have a side that is carrying a couple of injured players and a combination that hasn't trained together in camp. Greg Inglis has come from obscurity to a potential Origin hero if you can believe punters. Inglis has been backed from 16.00 into 12.00 to be the first try scorer and 21.00 into 16.00 to be the man of the match. Others to have backing in the MOM are Darren Lockyer (8.00) and Matty Bowen (16.00), while big Willie Mason has easily been the best backed of the Blues players at 11.00. There will be updated betting at half time on the match while this weeks NRL matches will not open until 10am Thursday. AUSTRALIAN RULES Richmond coach Terry Wallace is the hero of all bookies (and Richmond supporters) after masterminding the downfall of premiership favourites Adelaide last week. It was and probably will remain the biggest shock of the year as the Tigers hung on to beat the red hot 1.15 shots. Adelaide carried bets of $33,000 and $10,000 at the short odds but punters did some damage to themselves through the multis. One bet alone was of $60,000, coupling up the Crows with Fremantle at 1.47. While punters were hit a blow with the loss by Adelaide some bounced back on Sunday with the wins by the West Coast and St Kilda. One punter placed $140,000 on the double of the Eagles to win into St Kilda conceding 18½ points start at 2.29. That followed on from a successful bet the same person had the night before, which was $45,000 on Sydney at -10½ into Collingwood to win for a dividend of 3.82. While Fremantle ended up recording a big win over the Kangaroos, the Roos led by three points at half-time. They had met with solid support with another Victorian client placing $6000 on the Roos at 3.90, then coming back for another $10,000 at 3.75. Collingwood have been the big mover in premiership betting, with their odds slashed from 10.00 to 5.50 following the weekend's results. Fortunately for us the Collingwood army has left us alone in premiership betting and they are a big result at the moment. The Swans continue to firm as well, now into 8.00, although the bigger bets have dried up for them. This week, seven of the home teams are favourites and some of them seem very short. Punters have already shown their intentions and even though most look under the odds, the writing is on the wall that they may even start shorter. While Geelong have the advantage of returning to Skilled Stadium, they were woeful last week, yet we have already taken bets of $7500 and $5000 for them to beat Richmond at 1.29. Essendon are really struggling but have had bets of $12,000 and $5000 placed on them at 1.62. RUGBY UNION The replay between the Hurricanes and the Waratahs was another low scoring affair that was won on defence and discipline. It doesn’t matter how the Waratahs management look at the individual incidents, the overall performance wasn’t good enough to take them into their second consecutive final. The betting remained well balanced with both contenders’ recipients of genuine support. Two late $10,000 bets on the Waratahs at 2.35 gave us a small prize on the final result. The Crusaders ended the Bulls late charge with a 20 point victory at Jade Stadium. The punters took the 15½ points start with some enthusiasm and were never really in trouble. Betting on the final opened on Saturday night with the Crusaders at 1.21 and the Hurricanes at 4.25. This quickly changed with all the money for the upset. The Hurricanes have been backed into their current price of 3.60 and we won’t be surprised to see it stop there. The Wellington outfit has been popular with the punters as title contenders at the beginning of each season for the past couple of years now. This season began no differently with some solid support at the opening quote of 15.00. We wrote two $1,000 bets to lose $28,000 followed by another $500 bet forcing a shift into 13.00, which was also well supported resulting in a tournament starting price of 11.00. The Crusaders were also well supported going into the tournament as stand out favourites at 3.40. The quote has firmed a little each week as they marched through until Round 10 undefeated. The only drift came when the Stormers managed to defeat the Crusaders in South Africa. GOLF Australian golfers have been having a terrific time overseas recently and Rod Pampling looked likely to add the Bank of America Colonial event to his imposing record last week. Pampling went into the event as a 34.00 chance but was into 4.25 when he took the lead into the last round. Unfortunately Pampling had trouble on the fairways and wound up in third spot behind Tim Herron, who won in a play-off from Richard Johnson. This week, the FedEx St Jude Classic will be held in Tennessee and a struggling David Toms is our 9.00 favourite. Stewart Cink is second pick at 16.00 and one of our golfing regulars has had $1000 each way. Justin Leonard won this event last year but hasn't really attracted any support at 26.00, while Aaron Baddeley is the shortest of the Aussies at 34.00. The bigger names are in Europe this week for the BMW Championship to be held at the Wentworth Club in Surrey. Ernie Els is the 10.00 favourite but punters have steered clear of the South African. His countryman Retief Goosen has met with support at 11.00, as has Adam Scott at 17.00, including one bet of $600 each way. Angel Cabrera won this event last year and is a 21.00 chance while Thomas Bjorn is on the same line of betting. We are seeing money from Scandinavia for Bjorn, who has found form at the right time, winning the Irish Open last week. FORMULA ONE It is always important to be somewhere near the front of the grid in F1 races but if there is a standout track where it is even more important than anywhere else, then that track is Monaco. This week the F1 action will be held at the scenic municipality and we have posted Fernando Alonso and Michael Schumacher as equal 2.50 favourites. The pair has dominated recent races and qualifying, so with that in mind, they are also ahead of betting to draw pole. As far as the race goes, although Alonso won last start, the bulk of the early bets have been for Schumacher. We have also taken a bet of $6000 for the German to finish on the podium at 1.30 and a bet of $5000 Kimi Raikkonen to do the same at 2.75. Raikkonnen is 9.00 to win around the tight circuit but that hasn't proven popular with punters. Fisichella has been backed to take out nearly $15,000 at 11.00 but has been disappointing since the Australian Grand Prix. Schumacher's Ferrari team-mate Felipe Massa has been backed into 17.00 from an opening quote of 26.00 but is another who hasn't really fired this season. MOTOR BIKES Valentino Rossi looked set to win the French MotoGP before engine failure forced him from the event on lap 21. There were still seven laps to go but Rossi held a big lead over Daniel Pedrosa when his race came to end. It was a good thing for us as Rossi had been backed from 2.75 into 2.25 favourite following qualifying. It was going to be a 'blackout' for Centrebet, with some of the bigger bets including €4000 at 2.65 and $5000 at 2.50. With Rossi out of the road, it then looked like second elect Pedrosa (2.50) would win as he was left in front but he was overtaken by Marco Melandri (13.00) with four laps to go. Pedrosa was the quickest qualifier, so it was big surprise to see Melandri get past him and then an even bigger surprise to see Loris Capirossi do the same thing to finish in second place. EUROVISION SONG CONTEST Lordi changed the face of Eurovision forever when they easily won the competition on Saturday night and at the same time made hundreds of punters around the world very happy. The Finnish entrant was backed from an opening 26.00 to start equal second favourite at 6.00. Sweden was favourite at 4.50 but failed to run in the top three. The Finns looked like something from a Star Wars movie with a bit of 'Kiss' thrown in for good measure. The format of viewers SMS'ing in their votes, which invariably is done by young adults was a big plus for Lordi. The biggest single bet for Finland was a bet of €1000 at 9.00 and Finland was backed to take out nearly $100,000. While the winner of the contest was bad, we did recoup some on the 'top three' finish when both Greece and Sweden missed a place. We took one bet of $10,000 for Greece and 2.10 and two $5000 bets for Sweden at 1.90. Unfortunately German act Texas Lightning failed to flatter after also being well supported. Texas Lightning performed No No Never which was written and sung by Australian, Jane Comerford. BIG BROTHER Most Aussie males were shocked when Anna was evicted from the Big Brother household on Sunday night, but the good looking Victorian was backed into 2.10 favourite, so it didn't really surprise us. Anna was the fourth female to get the chop and the way things are going it might end up as an all-male review. The only female who looks safe at the moment is Katie, who remains favourite at 4.00, ahead of Gaelan and Jamie at 5.50. Punters have it in for Michael this week and it looks like he may be the first male to be ousted. We opened Michael at 1.66 but nearly $4000 in early bets has forced his price down to 1.16 with Camilla second pick at 5.00. She has attracted bets as well but John (26.00) looks safe for the time being. Until next week, good punting For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or centrebet@centrebet.com
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