Last week,
I recycled an older column that discussed the advantages of betting
basketball from the point-of-view of a bettor. This week, I will copy
from part 2 of that column and talk about basketball a little more
from the perspective of a book manager. I need to thank BoDog’s
number-one bookmaker, Kent, for his input into this article.
I asked
Kent to compare football and basketball from his
standpoint, as a bookmaker, and this is a summary of the conversation.
Traditionally, basketball has been less profitable than football on a
percentage basis for a few reasons.
First,
players play fewer teasers in basketball than in football. Teasers
retain a higher percentage for the house than do straights, so fewer
teasers means a slightly lower hold percentage. The theory is that
there is more teaser action in football because of key numbers.
Teasing the NY Giants from –8 to –2 crosses the key numbers of 7,6,4
and 3 and should greatly increase the chance of winning that bet. On
the other hand, the impact of teasing the NY Knicks from –7 to –3 is
more difficult to measure, as there are no key numbers crossed in that
play. I’ll talk about this a little bit more in a moment.
Second,
there are more games, so any one upset is less likely to impact the
bottom line as much as any one football game. Imagine what a Monday
Night Football game upset would do for the numbers. It would take
10-12 basketball upsets during the week to have the same positive
effect on the bottom line. The biggest reason for basketball holding
slightly less than football is the same reason teasers get less action
and that the lines are easier to run from the House’s viewpoint – no
key numbers. Moving the line from –2.5 to –3 to –3.5 to –4 would never
be done in football, but isn’t uncommon in basketball. If the favorite
wins by 3, the book can be middled. If the favorite wins by 4, the
book can be sided. As a result of the more frequent line moves, sides
and middles are slightly more common, and the House holds a slightly
lower percentage.
I want
to talk about the key number issue for just a moment.
I have received several emails from readers saying that they’ve read
about 4 or 5 being key numbers in basketball. I asked a couple of
professional gamblers, as well as Kent, what they thought of this
theory and there seemed to be a consensus. All agreed that 4 and 5 are
important numbers, but not because the score lands there often. It is
important because of the change in the style of play late in a game
around these scores. If a team is down by 3, they can tie the score
with a single possession and are usually more willing to play defense
than they would be if they were down by 4 or more. Being down by at
least two possessions forces them to foul the opposition and this
changes the complexion of the game greatly. Also, with basketball
teasers being 4, 4.5 or 5 points, a tease from being a favorite of 5
to being a favorite of –.5 is a popular play because it means the
favorite just has to win outright. Kent mentioned that moving from
–4.5 to –5.5 doesn’t have near the same effect of moving from –5.5 to
–6.5 in football. He sums it up with “The majority of basketball
bettors are just looking for the best line they can get, and key
numbers don’t figure into their thinking very much, if at all.”
Another
topic that was asked about in emails was the impact of
professional gamblers in basketball vs. football. I brought
this up in my discussion with Kent as well. “All the sharpest players
play football AND basketball” he said, “but not all recreational
gamblers play basketball, so there is a higher percentage of wiseguy
dollars in hoops than there is in football”. I touched on this very
issue a little bit in my last column so I won’t harp on why I think
everybody should bet basketball here, but suffice it to say that the
access to information also impacts basketball betting significantly.
“It wasn’t very long ago that inside information was worth its weight
in gold when it came to betting sports. Knowing who was playing hurt,
or who might not play at all, or who was being traded etc. meant that
a bettor could lay big sums knowing that he would hit enough winners
based on that info to turn a profit. Nowadays, that information is
plastered all over the Internet, especially in football. Detailed,
accurate injury reports, weather forecasts, etc. mean that the average
bettor now has access to the same information that was available only
to the wealthy and well connected just a decade ago. Basketball is
following suit, although there definitely is still an opportunity for
insiders to gain the upper hand.”
There
is one last topic from the emails that I want to discuss before I ask
Kent for his comments on the college season to date. I had several
questions about why totals are offered for just a few college
basketball games, usually televised ones. I talked to a
couple of book managers (Kent was still away) to get the answer, and
it boils down to volume. If events have very little wagering activity,
then the house takes on a lot more risk if any one bettor makes a
large play. At this point, there is not enough interest in college
totals on non-televised games for books to offer lines on all of them.
College totals have also been havens for professional bettors,
although as I mentioned above, the spread of “inside information” is
making these havens harder to find. However, I believe we are only a
season or two away from having totals offered on all games.
So far
the NBA season has been very good to us, fueled in large part by the
Lakers poor start. College basketball is just a couple of days away
from starting and I look forward to another exciting season. Next
week, I will be back to covering football season but let me leave you
with a football tidbit for today, Kent’s Line Move of the Week.
This
week’s most interesting line was definitely the Sunday Night Football
game. Here is Kent’s take on the game. “It was yet another primetime
game that was moving on and off a key number, in this case 3. The Jets
opened as 3-point favorites but the line dipped to 2.5 and even 2 at
other books late in the week. We were hesitant to make the move off 3
but followed the action down to 2.5. It quickly became apparent on the
weekend that the public liked the Jets and that the line was coming
back so we moved to 3 as quickly as possible and never moved off it
again. A spread of 3 is sacred in the NFL and being one of the last
books off 3 and one of the first back on allowed us to actually profit
(thanks to the game going Under) on a game that hurt a lot of other
books.”
I
always welcome comments, questions and suggestions via email at
rob@bodog.com
Rob Gillespie
Operations Manager
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