Last week
I covered the workings of Fixed Odds parlays. This week I want to
finish our discussion of parlays by discussing how True Odds parlays
are calculated. Next week we can turn our attention to discussing
teasers, that is if we aren’t too full from gobbling up Mom’s
Thanksgiving dinner.
I was
surprised at the large volume of emails last week’s column generated,
and many of them were from players that did not know what a parlay
was, so I figured this would be a good time for a quick intro. A
parlay is a bet that combines several straight wagers into a single
play. All picks in a parlay must win and in exchange for that extra
risk, players get a much higher payoff. Sorry, I should have added
that in last week for readers that are newer to betting.
Another
big batch of emails were from players that were upset with me for
declaring that the house edge on a 3-team fixed odds parlay is 12.5%.
“That can’t be true!” they cried because they have been told that
3-team fixed odds parlays pay better than true odds. My reply to each
and ever reader was the same. You have been slightly misled and “read
next week’s column”. So, for all those people that wrote me on the
topic, next week is here and the truth shall be revealed.
The
term ‘True Odds parlay’ is slightly misleading. It is an industry term
for a parlay involving picks other than football/basketball
spreads/totals at standard odds (-110). These parlays are not paid out
based on a fixed table but are instead paid out based solely on the
odds involved in each individual parlay. Before we discuss how “True
Odds parlays” compare to true odds, let’s look at how the payouts are
calculated. It is a simple process (although a mystery to many people)
where each pick is given a multiplier. Multiply all these values with
the risk amount and you have the payout (including risk amount). One
of the readers had asked me how a true odds parlay involving the
Dolphins, Buccaneers and Texans on the moneyline would pay at an
offshore book (he had played this parlay in a SportsLotto set-up and
felt he was cheated a little) so lets use that as our example. His 3
plays were:
Miami –190
Tampa Bay –165
Houston +210
First,
here is how to calculate the multiplier for a true-odds parlay
- simply divide what the total payout would be (risk + win) by the
risk amount. A lot of bettors, even intermediate and advanced
bettors (and even a few bookmakers) don’t realize how simple these
numbers are to come up with and rely on charts given to them by
sportsbooks or they find on the Internet. So, for our example here are
the multipliers for the 3 picks.
· Miami –190 means a risk of $190 to win $100. A win would return $290
so the multiplier is 290/190 = 1.526
· Tampa Bay –165 means a risk of $165 to win $100. A win would return
$265 so the multiplier is 265/165 = 1.606
· Houston +210 means a risk of $100 to win $210. A win would return
$310 so the multiplier is 310/100 = 3.100
Pretty
simple really. To make it even easier, the multiplier for a favorite
with odds of –xxx is (xxx+100)/xxx and the multiplier for an underdog
with odds of +yyy is (yyy+100)/100
Next, lets multiply these out: 1.526 x 1.606 x 3.100 = 7.60
So the
payoff is 7.60 times the original bet. This includes the return of the
risk amount so the net win is 6.60 times the stake. If you are betting
parlays, you should have a good grasp of this fundamental concept to
make sure you are getting paid out properly.
Okay,
that is how books calculate True Odds parlays, but does this mean they
pay at true odds? Of course not. If books paid out bets at true odds,
how would they expect to make a profit over time? To illustrate the
relationship between Fixed Odds parlays (see last week’s column) and
True Odds here is a table of how ‘standard’ picks (at –110) would fare
in a True Odds parlay (right column), how they compare to the actual
odds of winning (left column) and how they stack up against Fixed Odds
payouts (center column).
|
# of Teams |
Actual Odds |
Fixed Odds Payout |
'True' Odds Payout |
| 2 |
3/1 |
2.6/1 |
2.64/1 |
| 3 |
7/1 |
6/1 |
5.96/1 |
| 4 |
15/1 |
10/1 |
12.28/1 |
| 5 |
31/1 |
20/1 |
24.36/1 |
| 6 |
63/1 |
40/1 |
47.41/1 |
As you
can see by the table, True Odds parlays pay slightly better than Fixed
Odds except for 3-team parlays where the Fixed odds payout of 6-1 is
better than the True Odds payout of 5.96-1. The actual odds are 7-1
against. So, next time somebody tells you that a 3-team, Fixed Odds
parlay pays better than True Odds; you know they mean better than a
True Odds parlay. If they don’t mean that, then you can set them
straight.
Okay,
the ugly math portion of the column is out of the way and we can talk
a little more about ways to use parlays. I had one tip from a reader
that I thought I would pass on. He mentioned that he always takes a
single late game (or the Monday night game) in his parlays. That way,
if he hits all but the last leg, he can lock in a profit by making a
straight play against his final pick. As an example, imagine he had
$100 risked on a 4-team parlay with San Francisco -7 (from the Monday
Night football game) as the final pick and had won the first three
plays on Sunday. Now, he was in position to win $1000 if San Francisco
covered and to lose $100 if they didn’t. He could then wager on
Philadelphia to guarantee some win or perhaps just cover his losses.
If he risked $110 on the Eagles and they covered, he would break even
(win $100 on the single, lost $100 on the parlay). If he wagered $550
on the Eagles he would make a decent profit regardless of who won.
With an Eagles cover, the profit would be $400 (win $500 on the
single, lose $100 on the parlay) and a 49ers cover would earn $450
(win $1000 on the parlay, lose $550 on the single). If the game fell
San Francisco –7, the single at any amount would be a push and the
parlay would pay $600 (reduced from 4-team payout of 10/1 to a 3-team
payout of 6/1). Hedging is not something I advocate, but if you are
type of person that believes a bird in hand is worth two in the bush,
this is something to think about. Just be sure to never put yourself
in a position where you can lose both (betting the 49ers –7.5 in the
parlay and taking Philly +6.5 or worse on a single as an example) and
if possible shoot for a position to win both (last night he could have
taken Philly +7.5 on the single and so SF –7 would have paid the
single as a winner and paid the parlay still, albeit at reduced payout
of 6/1). You get the idea, something to think about when you are on
the verge of cashing a big parlay.
Before
I sign off, here is Kent’s Line Move of the Week. Kent is BoDog’s top
bookmaker and each week he shares with us a little insight into a key
game. This week’s comments are in regard to the Sunday Night Football
game, Indy at Denver. Here is what he had to say:
“This
wasn’t necessarily the most interesting line move of the week when the
game kicked off, but the final score made it that way. With a spread
that opened Broncos –6.5 and closed at –6 (-5.5 at some books) and a
total that opened 44 and closed at 42.5, Overtime was a torturous
affair for bookies. With Denver leading 20-17 late and the Colts with
the ball deep in their own end with no timeouts, some Colts bettors
were actually cheering for the Broncos defense and Broncos bettors
were cheering for the Indy offence. A little mixed up but that
happens. For the Broncos to cover, they needed to either run back an
interception, but a Bronco touchdown in overtime would at least get
the Denver bettors a push so that was the hope of many. Colts bettors
didn’t want to take any chances and 20-17 was a good score. As it
turned out, the Colts forced OT and now bookmakers had a dilemma, were
they going to take it in the head, or in the gut? If Denver scored a
TD, they won by 6 and the score lands on the spread so most bettors
get a push and the House makes no money. A Field Goal by either team
and the total lands 43 so the House gets slightly middled (there
wasn’t much action at 44 or 43.5 luckily). Safety anyone? Indy kicked
the Field Goal, we collected on the spread (there was Denver action)
but we had to pay out a little on the total. Not the most exciting
line ever, but the fact that it was going to land on the spread or the
total made it interesting.”
Thanks
Kent and I will be back next week with a look at Teasers. Have a happy
(and safe) Thanksgiving.
I
always welcome comments, questions and suggestions via email at
rob@bodog.com
Rob Gillespie
Operations Manager
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