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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
[Rugby Union | RUGBY UNION] If anybody thought that the Southern Hemisphere would dominate the Rugby World Cup next year, the results from last weekend would surely cast severe doubts over that theory when all three “southern” sides were beaten by their European counterparts. While England’s win over New Zealand and France’s victory over South Africa were quite on the cards, it was Ireland’s 18-9 win over Australia, their first in nearly 25 years over the Wallabies, that was a major surprise. The early money on this match had been for Australia, but on the day of the match, things turned around with money coming from Europe for Ireland. No doubt the sloppy weather conditions had a fair bit to do with that, and some of the bigger winners were two Englishman who each placed £2500 on the Irish with 8½ points start ($1.90). All points were scored from penalty kicks, and if we are trying to make an excuse for the Wallabies, it can only be the conditions, but it was still a very ordinary display. England’s 31-28 win over New Zealand was a terrific result for us. The English rugby clients we have were keen to open their wallets, with bets of £10,000, £3000 and $8000 coming for them conceding 4½ points start. The All Blacks attracted big betting from New Zealand, including $10,000 (twice) at $2.40, and another $8000 when they touched $2.50. There was also a bet of $9000 placed on New Zealand to win by 13 points or more at $6, but some of the gloss was taken off that by a bet of $6000 for England to win by less than 13 points at $3. There wasn’t a lot of action in the match between France and South Africa, which the French won 30-10. France were $1.70, with the largest bet being $6000, from New Zealand for France to beat the handicap of 2½ points. Whilst we will be covering five Union matches this week, all of the betting has been focused on two of those matches, England v Australia and France v New Zealand. The Wallabies have come in for plenty of criticism this week for being too predictable, they have plenty of injuries, and George Gregan had to make a flying visit home for the birth of his child. All of those facts have seen us post up England as $1.50 favourites, with Australia at $2.50. There hasn’t exactly been a stampede wanting to back Australia as we have only taken just over $6000 in early bets for them, but one client from Sydney rushed in with a bet of $12,000 for England. One thing about the Wallabies is that you can never write them off, and they look like getting to very respectable odds. The All Blacks had a new look squad when they were beaten by England, and their game this week against France should be a beauty. The All Blacks have had three bets totaling $14,000 (two from South Africa) placed on them in early trading at $2.25, and while we expect the late money to be for France, we aren’t too fussed whether we lay them or not as they were really impressive against South Africa. Last week’s results have seen New Zealand take over as World Cup favourites at $2.65 ahead of Australia at $3, but of course these two must meet in the semis. England are “solid” at $5, with Ireland into $34. There has been an early move in our Super 12 market, with the Auckland Blues backed to win $25,000 at $14 by a group of New Zealand punters. [Australian Rules | AUSTRALIAN RULES] Even though the start of the new season is still nearly five months away, the “trades” and the upheaval at Carlton have meant that Aussie Rules is still in the news, and that has been reflected in the betting. In a very strange move, the removal of John Elliott and his board this week sparked a series of bets for Carlton to win next year’s flag at $41, but they must be joking! Brisbane maintain favourtism at $2.90, but we did take a $2000 bet two weeks ago for Port Adelaide at $6.50, and there has been a heap of small bets for Adelaide, who are now also into $6.50. We haven’t been too impressed by the changes to the Essendon side, and are now keen to get money out of them at $10. Hawthorn have firmed into $16 following the signing of Peter Everitt, and definitely have the side to worry most even though they had a disappointing season this year. Next week, final eight and wooden spoon betting will open. [Rugby League | RUGBY LEAGUE] Next year’s league betting hasn’t taken off like the AFL yet, but there is already enough interest to say that punters are having as much trouble locating the winner as we did when assessing the prices. Every side has met with support, with the largest number of single bets placed on the Bulldogs at $4.50, but the biggest bet has only been $1600. The Brisbane Bronco’s have been backed to take out just over $30,000 at $6.50, but surprisingly the reigning premiers, the Sydney Roosters have only had a few bets placed at $4.50. Of the outsiders, both Melbourne and Manly have been backed to win just under $25,000 at $51 apiece, but we doubt if they have the necessary personnel to trouble the top sides. On the International front, Great Britain are $4 to win the Second Test against New Zealand this week, but judging by their 18 point loss last week, it’s hard to see them turning the tables. Punters agree, with all the early money, including a bet of $7500, coming for New Zealand to win at $1.25. [Elections | ELECTIONS] A week into the Victorian Election campaign, and after an early flurry of bets for outsider Robert Doyle (Liberals), the betting has now settled down with Doyle at $4.50, and Steve Brack’s at $1.15. The “Great Debate” last Sunday night was a non-event, and everyday the Brack’s Government are courting the electorate with waves of promises. A paper poll late last week had nearly 70% of those polled claiming that they are now better off than under the previous Government, so Labor should be returned. The biggest bet on Robert Doyle to date was $3000 at $4.75 late last week. A bet of $10,000 has been taken on Brack’s coupled up with Australia to win the Ashes Series, for a potential win of $2900. Centrebet is also covering the upcoming Dutch Election, and Jan Peter Balkenende of the ruling CDA party is $1.04 to retain the Prime-Ministership. The last Dutch Election was in May, when the LPF party gained 26 seats. The LPF had no previous seats, and were led by Pim Fortuyn, who was assassinated just before the Election. In that Election, the CDA increase was 14 seats, up to 43, and they formed a Coalition with the LPF and VVD (24 seats). We have also formed a market on how many seats the CDA and VVD will get between them. As mentioned, they currently hold 67, but with early polls tipping that will increase, we are giving punters the opportunity to bet either under ($1.75) or over ($1.85) 75 seats. It is expected that the Dutch press will also be keeping a close eye on the many markets we have on offer to see what the punting public think. [Miss World | MISS WORLD] Queensland Real Estate consultant Nicole Gazal is our joint fourth favourite at $17 to win this year’s Miss World pageant. The half Swedish-half Lebanese Miss Australia has been mentioned by most Miss World critics as being at least a top ten (field of 99) chance, and has the two main requisites, brains and beauty. We have taken a few bets for Nicole, but most of the early bets have been for “Miss Norway”, Katrine Sorland at $13, and “Miss India”, Shruti Sharma at $15. Plenty of people have been intrigued to know how we priced up the “Miss World” market, and there was no shortage of Centrebet employees who wanted to “do the form” by going into www.missworld.org and checking out the photos and profiles of all entrants. Nigeria supplied last year’s winner, which was a big upset. [Rally | RALLY] Finland’s Marcus Gronholm already has the World Championship wrapped up, but on form he has to be the one to beat in this week’s rally of Britain. Gronholm ($2.15) easily won last year, and with this week’s event being a “gravel” event, this should be right up Gronholm’s alley as he has won five of the eight races on gravel this year. Colin McRae won two of the others, but is a $7 chance as he returns from injuries received in an accident. Richard Burns ($2.65) is the one that punters have stepped in to back, including £1200, and €1500, both coming from England. Burns might win, but he hasn’t won a race this year, and has failed to finish his last two races, both on gravel. Burns’ best performances have been on tarmac, so in our book, that makes him a huge risk. [Cricket | CRICKET] Thankfully the English side put in a solid second day of the opening Test in Brisbane as at the end of that day’s play there was money for the draw at $2. The Aussies started the game at $1.40, carrying several big bets including $USD 25,000 and $40,000. At the end of the first day when the Aussies were 2/364, we took another bet of £10,000, from an un-parochial Englishman at $1.22. The mini English comeback on the second day saw Australia at $2.10 at the end of the days play, but most betting, led by $USD 20,000 from India, was for the draw at $2. From that point on it was all downhill for the Poms, and only the most supreme optimist would suggest they can win a Test. Plenty of money was won on Matthew Hayden who is currently the “pin-up boy” of punters. Hayden was backed at $6 to be voted ‘man of the match’, attracted $1000 worth of bets at $6 to be the first player to score a century, and was backed to win a total of $9000 to be the top scorer in both Aussie innings. On top of that, the Queenslander has also been backed to win over $25,000 to make the most runs in the Series, and with 300 already on the board, he might already have enough. Hayden is now into $1.30, with Ricky Ponting (126 runs) the only other player in contention at $5.50. With all the good things Hayden has done this season, he was still three runs short for one punter. A client from New South Wales had $3000 at $1.95 that there would be a double century during the Ashes, and while his bet is still “alive”, he probably all but had the money spent in the first innings in Brisbane. The Second Test in Adelaide doesn’t begin until next Thursday, but Aussie fans aren’t letting too much grass grow under their feet, rushing in and taking the $1.42 Australia as soon as it opened. We have already taken two $10,000 bets, $6000 and $4500, but a few have taken the $12 for England, maybe remembering England’s “against the odds” win against Australia in Adelaide way back in 1994/95. The Aussies are now into $2.50 to win the Series 5-0, which will be a very ordinary result following two bets of $2000 taken prior to the First Test at $5.50. Several of the Test players will be playing in this round of Pura Cup matches which begins today (Thurs). Western Australia gain the most benefit with Adam Gilchrist, Justin Langer and Damian Martyn returning. We posted WA at $1.45, but it was Victoria that we laid with bets of $2000 and $1600 at $2.75. The Vics are top of the table, but are full of confidence after beating QLD last week for the first time in seven year’s even though they have injury worries. In the other two matches, the only money wagered has been for the two favourites, but they do seem priced up to their best. New South Wales field a strong side against South Australia, drawing an early bet of $6800 at $1.36, while nearly $8000 worth of bets have been placed on Queensland ($1.32) who are at home to Tasmania. New South Wales are into $2.20 to win the Pura Cup, and are only marginally better at $2.60 to win the ING Cup. [Basketball | BASKETBALL] Only three teams in 25 years have been able to win the “doomsday double” in the NBL, and even the mighty Sydney Kings couldn’t achieve that when they went down by three points (in overtime) to Perth on Friday night. The Kings travelled West after thrashing Adelaide, and although they trailed most of the night, the Kings wouldn’t have lost too many friends and remain favourites at $2.70 to win the title. On Friday, the “late mail” suggested Adelaide would beat the Tigers in Melbourne after Timmins pulled out of the Tigers side, and the “evergreen” Andrew Gaze got out of his sick bed to take the court. A Victorian punter invested $12,000 on Adelaide to win at $2.25, and while we did win that bet, we did have to pay out a hefty $15,000 after another Victorian placed $5000 at $3 that the final score would fall between 195 and 210 points, and the final score (108-102) just scraped in. Last night’s (Wed) Fox Sports game between Wollongong and West Sydney saw an avalanche of support for Wollongong. The $1.55 was taken heavily, and there were also bets of $3500, $3000 and $1700 for the Hawks to cover a 3½ point handicap. West Sydney were within reach at three quarter time when trailing by 3 points, but were eventually thumped by 26 points. We get to see just how good Canberra are this week when they take on the two Sydney teams away from home. Canberra have an impressive 5W–1L record, but the teams they have beaten have only amassed 9 wins from 38 matches, and the Cannons have always had problems winning away from home. The Cannons take on West Sydney on Friday night, and most think West Sydney will win easily. Four bets totaling $7500 have come for the Razorbacks at -3½ points ($1.90), and they have also been linked up through some big multiples. One of the punters who has bet in that game has also placed $4000 on the Sydney Kings to beat Canberra on Sunday by more than 8 points. Perth also have a road double, in Townsville Saturday night, and then up to Cairns on Sunday. The Wildcats won the corresponding double last season, and we think they can repeat the dose. Townsville have had support, including $2500 with 4½ points start against Perth, and there has also been money for Cairns on Sunday. A “win” bet of $2000 came from NSW for Cairns to win at $2.30, as well as bets of $3000 and $1800 to get within the handicap of 3½ points. [Greyhounds | GREYHOUNDS] Western district sprinter Modern Assassin will go into tonight’s “Shootout” at Sandown Park as heavily backed favourite. Modern Assassin will be suited by the small four dog field, but is going to be giving some handy chasers a start. After opening at $2.50, $3000 worth of bets, mostly from Victoria, saw the price move into $2.30. There has been money from Qld for Thunder Creek, well suited in box 1. Thunder Creek trialed around Sandown in 29.90, and if he can find the lead, could prove hard to catch. Looking at the draw, although he is the least experienced runner in the field, Star Beyond Time looks the one to beat. He is $3.25, and while he has attracted the least amount of support, from the black box it is quite feasibly that he will lead all the way. [American Football | AMERICAN FOOTBALL] Week 10 of NFL went the way of the bookies when only six of the fourteen favourites managed to cover the spreads. Green Bay’s 26 point massacre of Detroit was the costliest game for Centrebet after an Austrian client invested the biggest bet of the round, €15,000, on Green Bay conceding 10 points start. The Packers now find themselves at the head of betting to win the Superbowl at $5.50, just ahead of Philadelphia ($7). Minnesota went down 27-20 at home to a New York Giants, and down with them went a bet of $18,000 to win at $1.90. The same punter didn’t have too much luck for the week as his only other bet was $15,000 on New England conceding 4 points to Chicago, and the final scoreline of 33-30 to New England saw him fall just short of the mark. The Monday night game saw Denver shorten dramatically from an opening $1.55 into $1.35, with the “line” moving two points. A Sydney man started the ball rolling with a $10,000 bet on Denver to win, taken last Thursday, and came back on the day of the match with another $7000 conceding 5½ points start. Oakland had admirers even though they drifted out in the betting, with another Sydney punter having a good collect when Oakland easily won, 34-10. His outlay of $6000 at $3.15 reaped a profit of $12,900. Like several weeks recently, the next round has been relatively quiet early on. A couple of favourites have firmed up in the betting already, with bets of €6000 (Germany) coming for Miami conceding 4 points to Baltimore, $10,000 (from Australia) for San Francisco (-2), away to San Diego, and $8000, again from Australia, for Oakland giving up 3½ points to New England in the Monday night game. [Soccer | SOCCER] Several draws in this weeks midweek round of Champions League saw the bookies come out well ahead as we head into the weekend. Tuesday’s matches carried the bulk of the business, with two big results. Basel led Liverpool 3-0 at half time, where Liverpool had to win to remain in the competition. With that in mind, heavy betting came for Liverpool, including $USD 20,000 from Asia at $2.10. The English side gave it their best shot late in the second half, scored three goals to draw level, but couldn’t find the net again for a much needed goal for their supporters. Rosenborg’s 1-1 draw with Lyon was also a fantastic result for Centrebet. Lyon were backed from an opening $2.10 into $1.85, with some of the bigger bets being €20,000 ($2.05) and £10,000 at $1.95. Naturally there was plenty of money for the Norwegian side, led up by a big bet of 110,000 NOK ($AUD 22,000) at $3.75. Most people discounted the draw, but one client from Oslo confidently predicted a tie, placing 40,000 NOK at $3.90. Wednesday’s match between Man United and Bayer Leverkusen saw betting come in two waves, the last one being a tidal wave! Leverkusen opened at $5.50, and European punters backed them into $4.50 for a take out of well over $125,000. Most of those also backed the draw option at $3.50, “risking” Man United, who eased out to $1.75. When word got out that Man U were fielding their best side, and Leverkusen weren’t, we cut Man United to $1.60, but then the big money arrived. A German client invested the largest amount €30,000 at that quote, and we continued to take money at $1.55 when the game started. Not surprisingly, they won 2-0. Man United continue to struggle in the Premier League, and their 3-1 defeat at the hands of Man City in the local derby last Saturday was our best result of the round. For the first time this season, there was plenty of activity from the Asian region on the matches, and those punters came out slightly ahead. $15,000 was placed on Aston Villa at $2.25 (beat Fulham 3-1), $25,000 came for Everton, 1-0 victors over Charlton, and the same bet came for Liverpool ($2), who were beaten 1-0 by Middlesbrough. Only two favourites have been targeted in early betting on this weekend’s round. Arsenal ($1.50), at home to Tottenham, have had two bets totaling $35,000 placed on them, both from Norway, as well as numerous multiple bets, while Chelsea drew a €12,750 bet from Germany at $1.70 to beat Middlesbrough. Last week’s losses by Man United and Liverpool have seen Arsenal move back into $1.60 to win the title, with Liverpool back out to $3. Man United ($7.50) are losing touch with the two leaders, and one would think that the winner is likely to come from the top two in betting. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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