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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
[Cricket | CRICKET] The whole world knows that Australia is having the worst drought in it's history, which is having a devastating effect on many lives and the economy, and there are currently 18 million and eleven people in Australia who wish it would start raining, and not stop for a couple of months. The 18 million are Australian residents, and the other eleven are the English cricket side! Rain, and plenty of it, looks as though that is the only thing that is going to halt an Aussie whitewash of the Ashes Series! One thing we must say in England's defence is that the first day of the second Test, much like the second day of the first Test, saw the Englishmen show some sort of determination which gave us a good opportunity to "balance" our book, and the final result, another Australian win, saw us record a small win. Australia started the match as $1.42 favourites. In a bizarre betting move, when Ashley Giles and John Crawley were ruled out, effectively weakening the English squad, money came for them to win at $14, and also for a draw at $3.50. Part of the reasoning behind that would have been anticipated rain on Sunday and Monday, but as usual, even though there were interruptions, the game didn't go into the fifth day anyway. Several $10,000 bets had forced Australia into $1.37 the day prior, but when money arrived for the draw, we turned the Aussies back out to $1.42. At the end of the first day's play, the draw was favourite at $1.90, and that was taken by all and sundry. One of our Indian friends parted with $USD 20,000, a $10,000 wager came from New Zealand, and there were numerous bets of smaller amounts, mostly from England. One Aussie client put $10,000 on the draw, but to be truthful, it's not in the nature of Australian's to back a draw in any sporting event, let alone when it's a cricket match against England. The second day collapse of England to be all out for 342, and the solid start by Australia, saw the Aussies firm quickly back into long odds on. A Queensland punter placed $50,000 on Australia at $1.45 as they were edging towards overtaking the English score, and when they declared at 9/552, the only real time there was any spice in the betting was when the commentators mentioned the four-letter "R" word, rain! Early on the fourth and final day, in the hope that a deluge was on the way, some Indians took the $3.25 for a draw, but the rain was nowhere near enough to save the Poms. The third Test begins in Perth on Friday, and while as bookies we are always looking for reasons for $1.30 chances to be beaten, how can you tip against Australia on a lively WACA pitch? The short odds have been taken again including bets of $24,000, $15,000 and $10,000, while a few have taken the massive odds of $14 for England. As mentioned many times before, our many wide and varied exotic bets are gaining popularity. We are constantly being bombarded with more and more requests as rank and file punters don't fancy taking the short odds on the matches themselves. Without a doubt, Shane Warne is the talking point at the moment, and as 500 wickets closes in, we have opened up "Warnes 500th Test victim" betting again. It really is a raffle picking which English batsman who will be forever a piece of cricket trivial pursuit, and while we stand to lose plenty if Warne cant do it, the $2.50, while appearing under the odds, is still being taken. With Western Australia certain to favour the "quicks", Glen McGrath is $2.75 favourite to take the first five wicket haul, ahead of Jason Gillespie ($4) and Warne at $4.50. A predicted early finish to the third Test has seen requests come in for which day, and which session, it will end. It's $2.20 that the match will come to a conclusion during the fourth day, and $5 that it will end in either the second or third session which is why the most worthless thing in sport these days seems be a ticket to the last day of Test between Australia and England. [Australian Rules | AUSTRALIAN RULES] Carlton have been stripped of everything but the kitchen sink in the wake of the salary cap "rorts", but you have to take your hats off to Blue supporters following an interesting chain of events this week. Last Sunday, the day after the AFL left Carlton with virtually nothing, we opened up betting for next year's final eight. During the first two days of betting, the only side we took money on, albeit only half a dozen bets, was for Carlton to make the finals at $3! We thought that the Blues would be the last side anybody would want to be on, so try and work out what goes on in a football supporters mind! On top of that, we also took another $200 in bets for Carlton to win the premiership at $41, but while new coach Denis Pagan is an expert at extracting the best out of difficult situations, next year will be a real test. The Fremantle Dockers have had $4000 placed on them to make the finals at $2.50, while one loyal Collingwood fan has but $20 on the Magpies at $1.33 to contest next year's finals, a long wait to collect his winnings of $6.60! [Rugby Union | RUGBY UNION] "Campo" (David Campese) has temporarily got off the backs of the Wallabies, this week coming out and saying England are "overrated". Well, all you can do is win, and the English capped off an amazing three weeks by thrashing South Africa 53-3 last Saturday, adding the Springboks to the scalps of Australia and New Zealand from the previous fortnight. The England v South Africa match was terrific to bet on as there was money for both sides at the handicap of 14½ points in favour of England, but when betting closed it was England who we were looking for to record a big win, and they didn't let us down, winning 53-3. There was a concerted push from South Africa for the Springboks, including one client who placed a total of $14,500 in two bets at +14½, and another who had $7500 worth of the same handicap. The conditions in Cardiff were far from ideal, but that didn't stop New Zealand recording an emphatic 26 point victory, much to the joy of our Kiwi clients who took -17½ points. The largest bet was $8000, but there were several bets in excess of $2000. Wet conditions also welcomed Australia when they travelled to Genoa to play Italy. As the price suggested ($1.03), Australia won the game, but the 34-3 scoreline wasn't indicative of what the second favourites for the World Cup should be capable of. An Australian client had a good win on this game after placing $8500 on Italy with 36½ points start, but surprisingly there was no sign of any of our Italian clients. The bulk of the money bet on the game however was for Australia, led by $6000 from a Sydney client. We have made a few changes to the World Cup market. New Zealand are back into $2.55, ahead of Australia at $2.80. England have taken on, and beaten, the three main hopes from the Southern Hemisphere, but nobody has taken the $5.50 on offer. South Africa have "blown" right out to $10, and although the World Cup is still many months away, their form over the past few week's would be a major concern to their supporters. Rugby is in recess until the Super 12 season starts in February, but there has been some activity on that market. A Victorian client this week placed $5000 on the Auckland Blues at $12, a Queenslander has placed $1000 on the Reds at $13, and we have taken several bets, totaling just under $1000, for the Otago Highlanders at $15. [Golf | GOLF] Steve Allan won the controversial Australian Open last week, and while most discounted the winning chances of the diminutive Victorian, one punter from Sydney didn't, collecting close to $17,000 after placing $200 each way at $67. The invitation extended to American's Charles Howell III and Rich Beem provided a twist in Centrebet's favour when punters completely ignored the chances of either, even in head to heads. Both got into a winning position coming into the final round, but there was still some apprehensiveness on the behalf of punters to back either, although we did get a $2500 bet for Beem at $4. Craig Parry ($4.75) was the player most sought after at that stage, but it was Steve Allen who held off a late charge from Parry, Beem and Aaron Baddeley to win by one shot. We matched up Beem with Stephen Leaney, and just on $20,000 in bets saw Leaney firm from $1.85 into $1.72. At the finish, the American had two shots to spare, and in a similar tense battle, Howell, who we matched up with Adam Scott, had one shot to spare. Bets of $8000 and $6000 were placed on Scott at $1.85, and just to prove how fickle this game is, when we originally listed those two head to heads, the intention was to "risk" the Americans, so how wrong were we? The Hyatt Coolum will play host to the Australian PGA title for the next five years, and Craig Parry, Stuart Appleby and Adam Scott share favourtism at $10 in this week's event. In early trading, Parry has been backed to take out $15,000, while Phil Tataurangi ($34) John Senden ($51), Adam Crawford ($61) and Craig Jones ($67), all backed to take out in excess of $20,000. Parry has had a $4000 bet (from QLD) placed on him to beat Aaron Baddeley in a head to head, with two $6000 bets, one from South Africa, going on Peter Lonard at $1.72 to beat Greg Norman. Craig Parry won the Coolum Classic back in 1997, and on the strength of his equal second last week, it would be no surprise to see "Popeye" win the PGA. The scenic Sun City Golf course will be the venue for the Nedbank Challenge this week, formally known as the Million Dollar Challenge. Sergio Garcia ($6) is the defending champion, but has predominately been dominated by players from that region. Favourite Ernie Els ($4) is a two time winner, while Zimbabwe's Nick Price ($10), has won three times. The course has been lengthened, and is now 7,580 yards long, and this should be right up Ernie Els' alley. Early betting has seen $5000 in bets come for Els, but one of our South African's has placed $2000 on Price at $10. Only Robert Allenby ($15) and Darren Clarke ($17) have met with any decent support outside of those mentioned. Denmark's Thomas Bjorn is $8.50 favourite to win the Hong Kong Open, but it has been Bjorn's compatriots Soren and Anders Hansen, both at $17, who have drawn most support. There is also a game of "Skins" on in California this weekend. Tiger Woods is favourite at $2.35 ahead of Phil Mickelson ($3), Mark O'Meara ($5) and Fred Couples ($6). While on face value that seems good odds for Tiger against only three opponents, there is a certain amount of luck attached to winning any "Skins" event, and the whole event can be decided on one hole. [Greyhounds | GREYHOUNDS] This year's Melbourne Cup of Greyhounds has drawn together a very even field, but by virtue of the box draw, Excite Ability will go in as our $2.40 favourite after drawing the coveted Red (Box 1) Box. Just like the shootout" that was decided two weeks ago, there had been a high level of interest in the Cup from Scandinavian and English Greyhound enthusiasts. Most of those have gone for the favourite, but we have taken several bets for the veteran of the field, speedster, Mint Mojo ($6), and also for the Graham Bate trained Ryder Bale ($21). Excite Ability is a good young pup who should get a good cart along from the inside draw, but if Traralgon Cup winner Elgrondo ($5.50) can keep out of trouble in the run to the first turn, he might prove hard to hold out. [Harness Racing | HARNESS RACING] The Miracle Mile has received plenty of coverage this week as a result of some controversial invites, and also with this year's event being extended to a field of seven. Added to that is the fact that the barrier draw has opened things right up, and now made it an enthralling race. Queenslander Double Identity has been in scintillating form, but has drawn poorly in six. He was desperately unlucky when runner-up at Newcastle, but is going to need a lot of luck from such a bad barrier. We have taken a lot of bets, but nothing substantial, for Double Identity, with most support, including two bets totaling $2500, coming for Joes ($5) as soon as betting opened. Last year's winner, Smooth Satin ($6.50), is faced with a "horror draw" in seven, but is definitely capable of winning given luck in running. Seelster Sam ($6) will be driven by Denis Wilson, and although he led all the way to score impressively last Friday night, it's long odds that he will get a "cushy" run in front like that again. Money has arrived from New Zealand for Young Rufus at $5, but he was beaten fairly and squarely by Yulestar ($8) two weeks ago. Then of course we have Victorian Hearts Legend ($9) thrown into calculations as well from a good barrier draw (two). All of that leads us to believe it is too hard to predict the winner, so we will let the punters back whatever they want, and hope we get "left" with the winner. [Basketball | BASKETBALL] With a third of the season already gone, Townsville and Adelaide are under enormous pressure, and on current form both will be lucky to make the finals. Townsville had a 4 point win over the Giants on Friday night, but then went down to West Sydney on Saturday. Big money arrived for Victoria on Friday’s game, with a new NBL client placing $7000 on the Giants at $1.90. The betting never moved on this game, and while we “stood” the Giants, there was one bet of $3000 for Townsville to win. The Croc’s did us a favour by winning there, but they couldn’t stay competitive when beaten 17 points by West Sydney the next night. We were nearly hammered into submission by punters who were keen to take -7½ West Sydney, so the Razorbacks didn’t pick the best time to return to form! Cairns did the impossible on Saturday night when they won in Adelaide, 107-106. Most punters saw this as an ideal opportunity to pick up some “easy” money as Adelaide ($1.10) were coupled up in multiples, as well as having a $5000 bet placed on them. $4500 worth of bets were placed on the total score falling in between 195-210 points at $2.75, so we just got away with that one! Three matches were played last night (Wed), with the televised clash between the two at the top of the ladder, Sydney and Perth, dominating the betting. We opened Perth as $3.85 outsiders, and had no trouble “selling” them to the public. Perth were backed to win nearly $20,000, also attracting bets of $6000 and $4400 with 7½ points start. Perth were never in the game, going down by 28 points, and it could have been more! Townsville hosted Adelaide, and even though just over $8000 was placed on Adelaide at $2.35 and with 3½ points start when betting opened, we were still keen for them to win as all the late money was for Townsville. Townsville showed just how badly they are playing by going down to Adelaide, 106-101. Canberra continue to climb in Championship betting, now into $7, and look an excellent hope. They have been a good side for us this season, and we think that they can dispose of Perth on Friday night. We have posted Canberra at $1.58, and Cannons fans will have to concede three points start, but early money has been for Perth. [Elections | ELECTIONS] Less than $100 has been placed on the Liberal party ($9), led by Robert Doyle, in Victoria’s State Election over the past week. Untold damage was done when it was announced that the Shadow Treasurer, Robert Dean, had forgotten to enroll in his electorate, and if Steve Bracks’ Labor Party ($1.02) wasn’t a “good thing” before hand, then they are now. Of the ten seats we are covering, most of the Labor candidates have been backed, but two of the seats have had a good spread of money. Susan Davies (Ind), in the seat of Bass, opened at $1.50, but was quickly backed into $1.35. Labor’s John Anderson was backed from $11 into $4, and there has been late money for Liberal candidate Ken Smith at $6. The seat of Benalla looked a match between Denise Allen (Lab) and Bill Sykes (Nat), and both opened at $1.85, but while there has been money for both, more bets have been placed on Denise Allen. One interesting seat is Burwood. We opened Di Rule at $1.50 to win back the seat that was lost to Labor in a by-election following Jeff Kennett’s resignation, but punters have backed Bob Stensholt from $2.25 into $1.15 to retain his seat. [Soccer | SOCCER] Soccer betting is built around statistical information, and a lot of people bet on conclusions they draw from that “info”, and of course the “law of averages”. The “law of averages” can send punters into a frenzy if something is well overdue to happen, and we have had a classic case of this in Danish Superligaen recently. There have been seventeen matches in the season so far, and in what must be some sort of record, Farum have not played a draw! They have won eight, with nine losses, and over the past few rounds, there has been massive betting for a draw in their matches. Last weekend, a draw against Brondby would have been a shocking result, but it was never likely as Brondby won 7-1. This week, the last round before the winter break, Farum host Odense, and while Farum are our $2.30 favourites, all the money has been for the draw at $3.50. Koge are at home to Brondby on Saturday, and this is shaping as one of the best betting games of the season. Koge have upset many teams this year, and in the biggest surprise of the season, beat Brondby 2-1 in the first round. Already there are two bets of 5000 DKK ($AUD 1000) for Koge at $5, and another of €2000 for the draw at $3.85, but the majority of Danish punters have supported Brondby at $1.60. Last weekends losses by Arsenal and Liverpool delivered a “knock-out” punch to most punters as both were heavily backed. Liverpool attracted two bets to the value of $25,000, one from Germany, the other from Norway, at $2 before they were beaten 3-2 by Fulham. Arsenal carried one bet of £8000, and a heap of smaller bets, at $1.73, but they also went over in a shock loss to Southampton, 3-2. We mentioned last week that the Man United v Newcastle match had seen betting for all three options, and that continued. To give an example of how big it got, in amongst a lot of the early bets was a wager of 125,000 NOK ($AUD 25,000) taken at $1.65, but just prior to the start of the game, Man United were $1.75! In a high scoring match, Man United won 5-3. Blackburn are at home to Fulham this week, and have been the first side to attract money from Asia for the round. A bet of $USD 20,000 was taken at $2.10 for Blackburn, and we continue to see support at $2. An Austrian client has started a run of bets for Man City by placing €7500 on them at $1.90 to beat Bolton, but the big betting game is Liverpool at home to Man United. These two sides despise each other, and at the same time both need the three points as far as the title race is concerned. Punters will notice we have provided an ultra competitive market on this game, with Liverpool at $2.35, the draw at $3.35, and Man United at $3.15. Early indications are that this will be one of the rare occasions that we will be cheering along with all the Man United fans around the globe! Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com
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