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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
RUGBY LEAGUE A valiant 12 man British side went down by four points to the Kangaroos at Wigan last Saturday night, and those who took the $1.50 for an Australian win would have breathed a huge sigh of relief when Darren Lockyer crossed with five minutes to go to give the Aussies the lead, and the match. The Australian side has come under plenty of criticism since their match against New Zealand, and from our point of view, they looked a good risk against the Brits. The $1.50 was taken with bets of $10,000 and $7000, both from New South Wales, and we also took several $5000 bets (one from England) for the Aussies to beat a 6½ point handicap. Having seen that match, and the way Great Britain performed with a man short, we thought that Australia would be without a friend this week, but how wrong we were! After opening at $1.70, a barrage of big bets, including $20,000 and $15,000, has forced us to cut the price to $1.67, easing the British out to $2.15. There has been some support for them at that quote, mostly from Australians, but all small money. Adrian Morley has been cleared to play for Great Britain after having been sent off in the first Test, and while we are of the opinion that that is a huge plus for the home side, punters disagree. The ill-feeling between the two sides has heightened during the week and Australia have the advantage of playing that kind of football week-in and week-out while Britain don’t often confront that pace and intensity. RUGBY UNION The quarter finals of the World Cup produced few surprises with New Zealand proving too strong for South Africa on Saturday evening, 29-9, and Australia dominating Scotland in the second half to run out 33-16 winners, the score only inflated by a last minute try to Scotland. Punters invested over half a million on these two games with both favourites being backed to the exclusion of their opponents. The All Blacks opened $1.18 and 13 point favs at $1.90, with our first wager being $20,000 at the win quote, followed by $10,000 at the handicap. By game time the points had firmed into 14 flat, with the Springboks proving difficult to lay. This game was followed by an avalanche of money for the Wallabies conceding 29 points at $1.90. With several bets of $10,000 from local clients, followed by $10,000 from one English client, the line firmed to 31 by kick off. While punters were on the mark with the first game, the brave hearts from Scotland managed to save our bacon with a stoic final 10 minutes in the latter game. Sunday's quarter final games followed a similar path to the day before with frenetic betting on both favourites. France were solid at $1.25 but once we went 11 points at $1.90 it appeared as if all of Europe wanted to jump on board. Ireland were as unlayable as they were disappointing with France proving too strong 43-21. England were also solid at $1.02 and 30 points but the Welsh had their supporters at $16 and receiving the start as this proved to be an interesting betting affair. England, on the radar boot of Jonny Wilkinson, had to pull out all stops to defeat a gritty and passionate Wales 28-17. On the strength of results and performances from the quarter finals, betting on the William Webb Ellis Trophy has changed dramatically with the All Blacks firming into $1.95 favourites and the Wallabies out the gate at $8. England have drifted to $3.65 after a lack luster display against Wales while France have firmed into $4.75 on the back of another polished performance. So impressive have France been that one regular English client backed them to win $75,000 as soon as betting opened Monday morning, not exactly a show of confidence in the locals as they take on France in the second of the Semi-Finals on Sunday. Semi-Final betting itself commenced at a hectic pace as the All Blacks opened at $1.27 and conceding the Wallabies 10½ points start at $1.90. Our first wager was $55,000 on New Zealand at $1.27 from a Sydney client, the Wallabies now at an attractive price of $4 to make the final on home soil. A similar showing by the Wallabies as that produced in Auckland back in August, where they went down 21-17, may provide an upset, but either way the 10½ points start they receive at $1.90 poses real value. In the second Semi-Final, England have been installed $1.65 favourites with France at $2.25 in what should prove to be a betting bonanza. With injuries to Josh Lewsey and Iain Balshaw the English backline lacked continuity against Wales, a similar problem against France could prove fatal. They must concede 4 points start at $1.92, and while betting hasn’t heated up at this stage, early skirmishes indicate France may start shorter. ENTERTAINMENT We are now down to the business end of Australian Idol, and while Guy is still the warm favourite at $1.35, the bets coming in this week suggest that the event is far from being cut and dried. Last week, one punter from NSW risked $5000 to win $1000 on Guy before Sunday nights show. Both Guy and Shannon received accolades for their performance, and if anything, it was Shannon who was the more impressive of the two. Business has been brisk on Australian Idol since it opened, and one of the key factors that we have relied on when pricing it up has been the demographic of the voters. Up until the past two weeks, we think that the majority of voters have been female, and under 20 years of age, but with the competition getting huge exposure, and the fact that we are now down to the final two, then people from across other age brackets have become interested in voting, and that can only help Shannon. When betting opened on Monday, Guy was $1.25, mainly due to the bets received from last week. Although we took another bet of $1600 at that quote on Monday morning, it soon became obvious that the bet numbers were heavily favouring Shannon, so that required a price change. Shannon, a big winner in our book, is now layable at $2.90. but Guy also continues to grab the occasional decent sized bet at $1.35. Although the final won't be decided until next Wednesday, because it is a 'phone in' poll, betting will close at midday this Friday. CRICKET There are two matches to go the TVS Cup series before the finals, with Australia up against India today (Wed), and New Zealand due to play India on Saturday. Today's match is a day/nighter, and although Australia are a long way short of being in stellar form, they go in as favourites. They played very well to get over the top of New Zealand at the weekend, but the $1.60 that punters are keen to take today seems to be a 'rock bottom' price. First in, as usual, was one of our Indian friends with a bet of $USD 10,000, and there have been two other bets of $5000 for the Aussies, but interestingly, most of our smaller Australian cricket followers have gone with the value, taking the $2.35 for India. Australia are already through to the final, but if India win today, and that would require them to reel in Australia's 300-plus total then New Zealand would have to beat them on Sunday to make the final. Locally, a star studded NSW side travel to Hobart to play Tasmania in a Pura Cup match beginning today. NSW are pretty short at $1.45, but at that price we have taken a bet of $9000. Following an exciting win over Western Australia last week, the Blues have been elevated to clear cut favourites at $2.50 to win the Cup, and are also favourites at $2.25 to win the ING Cup. There will be one ING Cup game this weekend when Victoria host Queensland at the MCG on Sunday. The Vic's would be buoyed by a successful start to the new season, but the Bulls are great exponents of the one day game, so we have priced up both sides at $1.90. RACING The Melbourne Spring Carnival is all but behind us, with only the Sandown Classic to come this weekend, but our weekend racing service will continue, with major changes planned in that area coming over the next few weeks. The win by Makybe Diva was well received by punters as the mare started a well backed second favourite behind Mamool, who unfortunately broke down and ran last. Makybe Diva was a loser for Centrebet, with most of the damage done by one punter from Sydney, who backed her to win $100,000 on the Monday at $8, coming back on Cup Day to win another $50,000 at $7.50. The two Cups this year are probably two races that bookies would rather forget, but we have to own up to a good win on the Cox Plate! Betting will be available tomorrow (Thursday) for the Bendigo Cup, with veteran Mr. Prudent and Chairmans Choice likely to be heading the markets. The recent spate of racing appears to have taken its toll on the Bendigo Club as this would possibly be the smallest field they have ever had in their feature race, and to be fair, it does lack depth. Thursday evening will see the running of 'The Shootout' of greyhounds at Sandown Park. All four contestants are capable of running quick times, but each have a style of racing that could bring about their undoing. Favourite is powerhouse sprinter Bombastic Shiraz ($1.60), not the best of beginners, but one of the strongest sprinters in training. As soon as betting opened, money came for the favourite, including a bet of 4000 NOK ($800) from one of our regular greyhound followers in Oslo. Flying Scott ($4) is another suited by the small field, but the dog that some punters have latched on to is Dancing Habit ($4.50). The NSW trained sprinter trialed in ordinary time last week, but on her Sydney times, is more than capable of being in the mix. Nautical Bill is the outsider of the field at $6, but would be better suited from an outside draw, and is racing a little below what he was six months ago. BASKETBALL Adelaide's losing sequence slipped to five in a row after losing by 10 points to West Sydney last night, taking their dismal start to the season (2W-8L). The 36er's have had to cope with loss of big man Paul Rogers and the subsequent delay in bringing in import Dusty Rychart, as well as the personal tragedy that Brett Maher has endured. If all that wasn't enough, the improving Darren Ng couldn't play in their 12 point loss to the Tigers due to Uni exams, so it is little wonder they have only won the two games and don't forget they've played seven games on the road. Despite their setbacks they have either been in front in their last three against Perth, Sydney and Melbourne. Against Perth they were still very much in the game at three quarter time, before the effect of being undermanned kicked in. Punters were on the money here with Razorbacks well supported carrying three separate $5000 bets to cover a three point handicap, as well as a $4000 bet to win the game at $1.58, although there was one bet of $10,000 for Adelaide to win at $2.30. As for title betting, Sydney, who won their ninth straight game against Cairns, maintain status as favourites following two more impressive wins at the weekend before last night win. We are still waiting for a legitimate challenger to emerge. Two games against Wollongong (round 8 and 10) will help determine how these teams match up as the 95-80 win to Sydney in round 4 may have been a flattering result to Sydney. If Brisbane, who won their fifth game beating the New Zealand Breakers in Christchurch last night, can continue their surge up the ladder it will be an eagerly awaited game in round 16 when they meet the reigning champions for the first of three match ups in six weeks. That will be something to look forward to, and only then will we be able to ascertain whether the Kings can do it again. GOLF Chad Campbell produced a dominating display of golf in the third round of the Tour Championship with a 10 under par 61 to leap to the top of the leader board, a lead he never relinquished despite challenges from last week's winner Retief Goosen and last year's runner-up in this event, Charles Howell. Touted as the next player to break through at a Major, Campbell showed by his aggressive play that the same confidence shown in him by his peers was ready to explode on the golf course. Singh and Love were both well supported to win this event but poor opening rounds of two over par 73 meant they were playing catch up golf for the remainder of the tournament, and although they finished well to tie for fifth, neither seriously threatened to win. That did not deter Vijay Singh from showing some emotion however as he ended Tiger Woods' four year reign as king of the PGA money tree. Golf turns its attention this week to team events where we head firstly to Kiawah Island Resort for the fourth running of the WGC World Cup of Golf, won last year by the Japanese pairing of Matuyama and Izawa. This event has a history of form players winning the event with Woods/Duval winning in 2000 and Els/Goosen in 2001. The USA with a strong pairing of Furyk/Leonard are $4.25 favourites from inform Swedish pair of Jacobson/Fasth at $8 and British duo Casey/Rose at $8.50. Already there has been good interest in this event with the Swedish and British pairing being backed to win over $50,000, along with Argentina at $17 and Wales at $34, from one of our regular golf clients, while a South African client has put his parochial money where his opinion is by backing the paring of Sabbatini and Immelman to win $40,000. Unfortunately Greg Norman's Franklin Templeton Shoot-out in Florida has not attracted the same level of interest in what should however still prove to be an interesting event. Previous winners Faxon and McCarron head the betting at $5.50 along with last week's winner Chad Campbell and Shaun Micheel from last year's winning pairing of Mediate and Janzen at $6. The lack of betting however will not prevent this world class gathering of 24 players with some 15 Majors to their credit from putting on a magic display of golf. FOOTBALL A former English Premier League footballer's frank comments on a Norwegian soccer site sparked one of this year's biggest gambles. Vålerenga midfielder Lars Bohinen's article resulted in a worldwide punt on the Oslo side losing their UEFA Cup second round, first leg match versus Polish team Wisla. The theory behind the incredible plunge was simple. One of Norway's biggest clubs, Vålerenga are fighting for their Tippeligaen lives and must win a two-legged play-off against Division One minnows Sandefjord to preserve their top-flight status. We saw money for Wisla as soon as we opened our book on the game but only after reading Bohinen's remarks, in which the ex-Blackburn, Derby and Nottingham Forest player did not do anything to dispel rumours that the European tie was a long way down Vålerenga's priority list, did punters begin backing Wisla off the boards. Our price on an away victory fell from $2.50 to $1.75 before we took evasive action and suspended our market over five hours before kick off. There was no support for Vålerenga or the draw, with the home side's odds drifting from $2.50 to $3.85 and the stalemate lengthening from $3.30 to $3.40. However, as is often the case with these enormous gambles, punters left behind their money. Vålerenga boss Kjetil Rekdal did not make wholesale changes to his team's starting line-up, Wisla had a man sent off with seven minutes remaining on the stadium clock and the match produced no goals. Bohinen is no stranger to online controversy. The former Norway international used his personal Web pages to vent his frustration at then Rams manager Jim Smith during his time in County's reserves side. Another huge football plunge went awry when Italian Serie A strugglers Perugia - yes, that is the club on whose books is Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's son, Al-Saadi - failed to break their league duck at the ninth time of asking. Punters backed Italy's most unorthodox team from $2 to $1.67 but, just like Wisla, they never looked like rewarding the faith that the betting community invested in them. Visitors Lecce led 1-0 and 2-1 and only a late Perugia goal stopped them leaving with three points for their efforts. All of our high-rolling clients were involved in the Perugia plunge, whereas everyone - from the recreational gambler to the professional punter - bet on the Polish side racking up a first-leg advantage over Vålerenga. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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