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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES While the kick-off to season 2004 is still many months away, it's probably timely to catch up with early betting moves on AFL following the release this week of our final eight and wooden spoon markets for next year. As far as the premiership goes, Hawthorn have been the early movers, backed to win close to $40,000 which has seen the Hawks' odds firm into $13 from $15. The shaky start to this season cost Hawthorn dearly, and it's understandable why punters think that they will be a force next year. Essendon have been backed to win more than $50,000, but remain at $11, while the West Coast have attracted some support at $21. The two sides that were backed to make the finals as soon as betting opened were Fremantle ($2) and Hawthorn at $1.55. The Dockers made the eight this year, and while a premiership win may still be a few years away, they have a huge advantage in that they are likely to win at least eleven games at home, and 12 is normally enough to make the eight. Two bets totaling $7500 were placed on Hawthorn, while a $3000 bet (from Perth) was placed on Fremantle, with another client from the West parting with $1500 for the West Coast at $2. Carlton and the Western Bulldogs share favourtism at $3.50 to 'win' the wooden spoon, but it may not be a mere formality that the most unwanted award in the league will go to either of these two clubs. They were competitive this year, and Carlton have recruited well, while the Bulldogs will get Chris Grant back from injury, a key factor to their chances. As yet, nobody has backed either of these two, but we have taken a handful of bets for Melbourne at $5, and $500 for Richmond at $11. These were the two sides who promised so much this season, yet failed to deliver. RUGBY LEAGUE The Kangaroos have retained the Ashes on the back of a controversial 23-20 defeat of Great Britain in game 2. The home side led 20-12 at half time despite a dubious try by Craig Fitzgibbon just before the bell. However, in the second half Great Britain resorted to a safety first option which was to prove costly, and along with Australian referee Tim Mander not awarding Great Britain a penalty for the entire second half, they eventually succumbed to Australia’s pressure. Betting was in fact quite brisk in this game with our first wager being $20,000 on Australia at $1.70. This was backed up by a flurry of $5000 wagers on Australia conceding 3½ points start at $1.90 from loyal Kangaroo supporters. Patience is said to be a virtue in the bookmaking game and that proved to be the case as we weathered the early onslaught for the Kangaroos. As the Northern Hemisphere rose from their slumber, Great Britain followers could not believe their eyes. There was their luckless Great Britain receiving 3½ points at $1.90 and a savory $2.15 to win the match. Our first wager for the Lions was £10,000 at the start from one of our well informed English clients and the money didn’t dry up there. An hour before game time we were forced to move the line to 2½ which was well received by our Australian clients, with more money for the Kangaroos. Needless to say the one result Centrebet didn’t want was Australia by three; what chance of that?! This week the betting assumes a similarity to the first two games dispite being a dead rubber. Australia are $1.70 and conceding 2½ points, while Great Britain are $2.10. Great Britain will sorely miss Keith Senior and now with the withdrawal of Gary Connolly, a new centre pairing will be placed under enormous pressure, however the motivation to avoid their first white was in some seventeen years should supply the spark required for the home side. And Tim Mander? Lucky George Bush arrives in England this week to take off some of the heat! RUGBY UNION The Semi-Finals of the world Cup proved to be a betting bonanza for Centrebet. Betting kicked off in game one on Saturday evening between the All Blacks and Wallabies at Telstra Stadium with a $55,000 wager on New Zealand at $1.27. By the time the dust had settled New Zealand were $1.25 and conceding 10½ points at $1.90 while the Wallabies were $4 to win the game. Early money arrived for the All Blacks at the points from overseas however this game had captured the imagination of a nation as the money began to roll in for the Wallabies. By kick-off the All Blacks had drifted to $1.31, the Wallabies firming into $3.40 and taken. While this was a good result for Centrebet, particularly to win the World Cup, the roar that eminated from Telstra Stadium when Stirling Mortlock scored ‘that’ try interception was a reflection on how passionately Australia had supported the Wallabies. The second semi-final on Sunday between France and England started slowly but that was not the case come game day as almost half a million dollars was turned over. England opened $1.65 and conceding 4 points, but after heavy support from our Northern Hemisphere clients eventually starting $1.50 and conceding 5½ points at $1.88. France were unlayable at game time, which appeared a contradiction as most pundits suggested they had a legitimate winning chance. Nevertheless punters ensured this was a blow-out for Centrebet. The play off for third place takes place in Sydney on Thursday night between New Zealand and France with neither country having too much to play for other than pride. Betting commenced with New Zealand $1.25 and conceding 12½ points at $1.90, our first wager of $7000 from a NSW client at the points. This was followed by $10,000, again for the All Blacks conceding 12½ points. It was then that France announced no less than thirteen changes to the squad which went down to England on Sunday. New Zealand are now a short $1.12 to win the game and conceding 17½ points, while France once again have ‘blown out the gate’ to $5.75. Betting on the final has England as $1.70 favourites and conceding 2½ points to the Wallabies, while the Wallabies are outsiders at $2.12. Already over $50,000 has been placed on England conceding the start, mostly from the Northern Hemisphere, confident the radar boot of Johnny Wilkinson will lead them to their first ever World Cup, and buoyed by England’s demolition of Australia in Melbourne back in June. However this is a very different Wallaby outfit, riding on the support of a nation after dispatching of the highly rated All Blacks in the Semi. This game should follow a similar betting pattern to last week with the Australian clients getting behind the underdog Wallabies in what will prove to be a betting blitz never before seen on a Rugby game at Centrebet. And we’ll be behind them all the way! AMERICAN FOOTBALL One shrewd Australian punter is $220,000 better off after Indianapolis covered a six point handicap against the Jets last Sunday night. The client in question took a $40,000 multiple of Perth Glory ($2.10) to beat Adelaide in the Australian soccer, Seattle ($1.15) to beat Detroit, Tennessee ($1.18) to beat Jacksonville and finished it off with Indianapolis. The Colts led for practically all of the game, but we did get a glimmer of hope when New York drew level (31-31) with 15 minutes to go, only to see Indianapolis score, and cover. Kansas suffered their first defeat of the season when they went down by five points to Cincinnati, and while we were eager to 'lay' the Chiefs, punters also saw this as a danger game, and Kansas were hard to sell. We did manage to get a bet of $14,000 for Kansas conceding 5½ points start, but it wasn't the big result we were looking for. The late Sunday game always finds us overloaded with the favourite, and last week was no different when New England went in as public elects over Dallas. The line moved from a flat 4 to -4½ in favour of the Patriots, with the biggest individual bet coming from Norway, 170,000 NOK ($AUD 34,000) for New England conceding the start at $1.86. In an extremely defensive match, Dallas were always some hope of getting within that mark, but were eventually beaten 12-0. New England have been elevated to third favourites for the Superbowl at $9, and like Kansas ($4). the Patriots are a bad result for Centrebet. An Australian client backed New England to win $50,000 two weeks ago when they were $13, while Kansas have been backed all the way down from their opening quote of $34. One thing in our favour is that this does look one of the most open seasons ever, and the defeat of Kansas last week only confirms that. GOLF It may have been a quiet week in the golf world but that did not stop punters from getting involved, or from some of the world’s top players from putting on a great display of shot making. The key event of the week was the WGC World Cup where twenty four countries were represented by two of their top players. The USA pairing of Furyk/Leonard headed the betting at $4.50 but support for England (Rose/Casey) and Sweden (Jacobson/Fasth), both backed to win over $40,000 at $10, forced their price out to $5 by tee-off. Other countries who had support were Argentina, Germany and South Africa, all well tried at each way odds. Germany commenced well with a 5 under par 67 on day one of four ball format, however they were unable to hold form on the second day with a 5 over par 72. The South African pairing of Immelman/Sabbatini found themselves in front at the completion of round two with team USA two shots further back and appearing the team to beat. However the South Africans produced a third round of brilliant individual shots, finishing with a nine under par 63 and a seven shot lead. They commenced the final round as $1.12 favourites and despite a challenge from the English pairing still finished with a comfortable four shot victory, with a further shot back to the consistent pairing of Levet/Jacquelin. It was a stella performance from a team regarded as a second string pairing as both Els and Goosen were unavailable. Over in Florida there was a thrilling finish to the fifteenth running of the Greg Norman promoted Franklin Templeton Shootout as three teams completed the 54 hole event at twenty three under par. The experience of Jeff Sluman coupled with the length of Hank Kuehne proved too much for Faxon/McCarron, who were attempting a third victory in the event and Campbell/Michael two for the big improvers on the PGA Tour this year. Team golf continues this week with the fifth holding of the President Cup in South Africa. The USA hold a 3-1 advantage over the Internationals led by Els and Singh, who are favoured to win at $1.70. The USA are chock full of big name players however there are question marks over the consistency and form of players such as Toms, Mickelson and DiMarco. The Internationals on the other hand, apart from Els and Singh, have players of the ilk of Goosen, Weir and Choi, all in good form and along with five Australians, all experienced in team match play format will prove tough to beat. Other forms of betting available on this event include top Individual, USA and International Points scorers’ and correct point score for the tie. Also in golf this week we have the Dunlop Phoenix International in Japan where Sergio Garcia heads the betting at $9 from Lee Westwood at $10 and Thomas Bjorn at $13. Best backed have been local players, Izawa at $11 and Katayama at $15. On the local scene, as a prelude to the Mastercard Masters, Peter O’Malley heads the betting in the NSW Open at $6 from Scott Laycock and Steve Allan at $10 and the ever improving Marcus Fraser at $15. Good support here for Laycock and Fraser but if O’Malley masters his flat stick then he will prove tough to beat. CRICKET Tasmania staged a remarkable performance in windy conditions to gain outright points over NSW in their Pura Cup match last week, and in doing so handed us an unexpected win. At this stage of the season, large bets on Pura Cup matches are hard to find, but in this instance we took a bet of $9000 for NSW to take most points at $1.45. NSW captain Steve Waugh continued on with his aggressive approach to the Pura Cup, and declared, chasing outright points. The Tasmanians scored nearly four an over in the run chase, only losing four wickets as they scored the necessary run total of 386. Today (Wed), the Victorians take on WA at the Junction Oval, and while we had the Vic’s the favourites at $1.55, the biggest bet, that being $2000, was for WA to take the points at $2.40. The star studded NSW side will play SA in an ING Cup match at Adelaide Oval on Sunday, two days after their Pura Cup match finishes. We have listed SA at $2.60 even though they are at home, mainly due to them having a questionable bowling attack, one which the strong NSW side should handle easily. Last night, the TVS Cup was decided in India, and Australia won their sixth match in a row, a fantastic effort considering our bowling ranks are a little on the thin side at the moment. The Aussies started the game as warm favourites at $1.45 after winning the toss. We had already taken a big bet of $USD20,000 from an Indian client at $1.58 prior to the toss, and then he came back with another $25,000 at $1.48 when the Aussies had the advantage of batting first. The score of 235 wasn't anything to rave about, and on a pitch that looked to have plenty of runs in it, India were 'layable' at the major break at $1.67, which allowed us to balance up the book. The largest of those bets was $USD14,000, again from India, so we found ourselves in a good position of having winners on both sides of the ledger. Australia come home now to prepare for what is shaping as a very one sided! summer of cricket. They play India and Zimbabwe, and while India are cap able of offering some resistance, Zimbabwe look like they are going to be the 'whipping boys'. ENTERTAINMENT Unfortunately, due to the voting process, Australian Idol fans can't place any more bets with us on tonight's winner. The reason for this is that as the winner is decided by a phone or SMS poll, there would be certain groups of people who would be aware of who is ahead, and if it is a landslide win coming up for either Guy or Shannon, then we want to protect ourselves, so that is why betting closed at the weekend. When betting did close, Guy was the favourite at $1.30, with Shannon at $3.20. Since the televising of their final three songs last week, more than 50% of the bets that came in were for Shannon, but as Guy had attracted bigger bets (including $5000 at $1.20), he remained favourite. From that, we can confidently predict that this will be a very close finish, one which Shannon may win! After the winner is known, we will be betting! on the winner of 'World Idol', which will be decided next month. We also bet on the 'National IQ Test' which was televised live on Channel Nine last night. Punters could bet on which 'celebrity' would win, and most agreed with our assessment of sports writer Peter Fitzsimons as favourite. As always, we kept the betting small, but there was one bet of $500 on the former Wallaby at $2.50, with Channel Nine's Tracey Grimshaw ($7) and 'The Block's' Gav and Waz (both $8) the best backed of the rest. Victory went to actor Gary Sweet, second fav at $5, with his background in teaching obviously coming in quite handy. BASKETBALL They say all good things come to an end, and Sydney's 13 game winning streak hit the wall in an 88-86 thriller to Wollongong last night with the Hawks becoming the first team this season to beat the defending champions. The first match at Wollongong went the way of the Kings 95-80, but most saw this as a flattering result as it was an even contest for most of the match. The bookies have not been totally convinced about the Kings and up till now maybe punters have been reaping the rewards as a result. The last time they met Wollongong made a dismal 2-17 of their three point shots, and as a team with five quality shooters like they have, we always thought they were capable of turning the scoreline around. Punters though saw it differently with Wollongong virtually 'friendless' in the pre-game betting. The $1.35 for a Sydney win was snapped up before tip-off with a bet of $5000, while practically all the handicap betting (-6) focused on Sydney, including two bets totaling $13,000 from NSW. Sydney did a remarkable job to get a victory over Townsville last weekend whilst managing only 18% of available rebounds at their offensive end. Compare this to Wollongong claiming in excess of 42% in their match against Melbourne, and also the fact that this will be Sydney's sixth match in 15 days, and our predictions of an upset proved on the money. FOOTBALL Centrebet 4 Punters 1. That’s the score at half time in the Euro 2004 play-offs after shock scorelines in four of last weekend's five first-leg games, none more surprising than Scotland's defeat of the Netherlands. Soccer punters assessed the key match-ups - Ruud van Nistelrooy against Steven Pressley, Edgar Davids versus Christian Dailly and Jaap Stam against James McFadden - and reached the conclusion that the Dutch represented good value at $1.67. Not! for the first time, however, former Rangers boss Dick Advocaat's Netherlands team fell short of expectations on the international stage, with Scotland goal scorer McFadden labelling the Dutch as arrogant in a post-game interview. The home side went almost unbacked at $5. Croatia ($1.60), Russia ($1.60 to $1.50) and Turkey ($1.85 to $1.75) also contributed to a miserable few hours in the lives of football favourite backers and, had it not been for Henning Berg's late own goal, Spain ($1.28) would have completed a nap hand of bad results for punters. Norway defender Berg's accidental deflection resulted in Centrebet losing money on most of its match markets, with many punters profiting from Steffen Iversen's 14th-minute opener for Nils Johan Semb's team. Iversen, you may remember, scored Norway's goal in their Euro 2000 defeat of Spain and large numbers of knowledgeable Scandinavian soccer supporters snapped up Centrebet's price of 19.00 that the experienced forward would trouble the Iberians again. The Euro 2004 play-off games were just one reason as to why it was an appalling weekend for football punters, especially those with a penchant for backing short-priced favourites. Two major gambles went astray in English Division One - Gillingham ($1.65) lost at home to bottom-of-the-table Wimbledon and Norwich ($1.55) relinquished their 100 per cent home record to Watford - and, perhaps in the biggest upset in the history of World Cup qualifying matches in the South American zone, Colombia ($1.20) lost at home to the region's perennial whipping boys, Venezuela. Better known for beauty pageant queens and baseball players, Venezuela have not graced a World Cup finals tournament. Will they reach Germany 2006? Probably not.
Until next week, good punting. For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or
centrebet@centrebet.com.
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