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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
RUGBY UNION Rugby World Cup for 2003 is finally over and every person who had input into the event from boot studders to IRB Chairman Syd Millar can be proud of what was achieved. From a betting perspective, and certainly from Centrebets point of view, it was a long and difficult slog. Of the forty-eight matches played, forty-five favourites were successful, and 54% of those covered the points spread. Even the favourites which lost, Georgia and Tonga were unlayable and the All Blacks were defeated by a fired up Wallaby unit. Simply be our location and the Wallaby support the media developed, it was tough to have a great result on that game. The final as anticipated was a betting bonanza. England opened at $1.70 and conceding 2½ points, prices which weren’t to last long as a deluge of money found its way from England. We held the opinion that the money which flowed from around Australia for the Wallabies the previous week would get a run again against England. The Wallabies opened at $2.15 but found little support in the early exchanges. After 48 hours of betting England had firmed into $1.65 and conceding 3½ points, but it was at this point punters got serious. One new client from England placed $250,000 on England at $1.65, there was £5000 bet on the draw at $21 from Ireland and a further $35,000 on England conceding the 3½ points, again from an English client. The weight of that sort of money put us straight on the back foot as the Wallabies drifted to $2.25 which happened to be the selling price for our Australian clientele, $40,000 an opening salvo from a client from Sydney. So brisk was the betting that up to ten minutes prior to kick off, $25,000 was placed on Australia at $2.25 and a further £10,000 arrived for England at -3½ points, neither of which forced betting fluctuations. What unveiled during the course of the final is now history, two teams battling out 100 minutes of passionate, gut wrenching rugby, fitting of the showpiece it was ordained to be. Unfair there had to be a loser. The fact that England won symbolized the luckless World Cup bookies were having. Our saving grace a margin of 3, so we recouped something. RUGBY LEAGUE These people who believe lightning doesn’t strike twice in the same place obviously didn’t have the Great Britain Lions in mind, managing to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory to choke an Ashes series they perhaps should have won. Previous results suggested this would once again be a tight encounter and our opinion was that the betting should reflect this. The Kangaroos opened $1.75 and conceding 2½ points and not much happened betting wise until England managed to secure their first rugby world cup. That seemed to be a green light for punters from both hemispheres to back the Kangaroos, seemingly in the belief that the new Lion centre pairing of Gleeson and Gilmour would succumb to the Australian pressure. Over $50,000 was placed on the Kangaroos in the final hour prior to kick off either at the win price of $1.75 or at the points, and for all but the final three minutes of the game it appeared as if the Lions would avoid their first whitewash since 1987 and that the late deluge of money for the Kangaroos would go astray. However two Aussie tries in that remaining time saw the series end on a dismal note for both the Lions and Centrebet. Yes, lightning can’t strike twice in the same place but it appears in Huddersfield, three times is a real possibility. GOLF What a week for final round comebacks in the world of golf. Firstly the Presidents Cup captured the imagination of golf followers the world over, team USA coming from three points behind the International team to secure a heart stopping, breath taking and simply incredible tie. The International team led 16½ - 14½ with three matches remaining, however a birdie putt on seventeen allowed Chris DiMarco to finish one up on Australian Stuart Appleby while Woods almost simultaneously dispensed of world number three Ernie Els, 4 and 3. Those wins tied the contest, leaving the result of the Presidents Cup in the hands of another Australian, Robert Allenby for the International team and 1997 USPGA Champion Davis Love for the Americans. The result appeared to be going the American way as Love led one up coming to the final hole, however a fluffed pitch from the front of the green to take a bogey six allowed Allenby to take the hole after his third shot, a superb pitch from the back of the green finished stone dead. With the contest tied 17 all, the team captains declared their pre-ordained players to contest the sudden death play-off. No surprise to see world number one Tiger Woods, and world number three Ernie Els as their respective teams unanimous choices. What followed were three holes of enthralling golf culminating in two for the most pressure packed, yet spectacular putts seen in competition golf. Firstly Woods from 12 feet, then Els from eight, needing the putt to drop for the play-off to continue. Els didn’t let the partisan crowd or his team mates down as the putt rattled the back of the cup, the fading light making in impossible to continue. It was then agreed the match be called a tie and with both teams sharing the ‘Cup’ a fitting result as both teams gave a 110% in what proved to be the most extraordinary of the Presidents Cup played to date. Punters however were not as well treated on the event as golfing purists. The Internationals were installed as $1.75 favourites, our first wager being £5000 from a UK client, the US $2.25 and tie $13. By the end of two days of competition however the Americans held a three point lead and appeared to be playing the better golf. Their price firming into $1.40, which attracted one wager of $10,000 from an enterprising local client. The third days’ results threw the betting on its head again as the Internationals took a 3 point lead into the twelve singles matches. Betting was $1.25 the Internationals, $4.50 the USA and $11 a tie, all a realistic chance. Needless to say that Els’ putt, the fading light and the decision not to come back the following day sunk the hopes of punters of both teams. On the European tour, the Senior UBS Cup produced a similar result as the USA rallied on the final day to clinch two wins and two halves in the final four matches to force a tie. Scott Hoch the hero for the Americans as he came from two down over the final five holes to halve his match against Eduardo Romero. Others to rally on the final day include Meg Mallon, who birdied five of the final nine holes to record a one shot victory over world number one Annika Sorenstam. At the season ending ADT Championship, Sorenstam led Mallon and Kerr by three shots coming into the final day but punters ignored the $1.14 on offer. In Japan, Sergio Garcia slaughtered a three shot lead on the final day at the Dunlop Phoenix Open to finish with a seven over par 78 and miss a place. Garcia was well supported by punters pre tournament at $9 but his lack of consistency once again proved to be his downfall. This week we remain in South Africa for the Nedbank Golf Challenge at Sun City. Ernie Els has won three of the last four times here and punters have shown their support placing over $20,000 at the opening quote of $3.75. Also well supported have been fellow South Africans, Retief Goosen ($8), Nick Price ($21) and PGA tourn money winner Vijay Singh ($5.50), all backed to win over $50,000. This has been a great betting event but one must wonder how the pressures of the Presidents Cup will affect the fifteen players who participated. Perhaps a fresh Darren Clarke or Padraig Harrington at $15, both who have performed well here, may prove to be good value. TENNIS Australia go into Friday's Davis Cup final against Spain with a decided advantage. The Cup will be decided in front of a parochial home crowd, and it will be played on grass, but while the betting would seem to suggest that Australia are near on unbeatable, some punters have a different view. The Aussies have a powerful grass combination of Hewitt and Phillippoussis, but both have had their share of problems recently. Juan Carlos Ferrero is expected to play Hewitt first up, and while he is recognised as a clay courter, he did make it through to the last sixteen at Wimbledon. The Spaniard's also have an ace up their sleeve in Feliciano Lopez, a massive server who has progressed to the last sixteen at Wimbledon the last two years. It is tipped that Lopez may play the other singles rubber in preference to Carlos Moya. So, what we have is an intriguing battle, with Spain definitely not out of it. The $3.85 for Spain to win was snapped up by a Sydney punter with $10,000, and others have followed, forcing the price down to $3.60. On the other side of the equation, we had already taken bets of $7000 and $5000 for the Aussies at $1.25 before they drifted to $1.28. We are predicting heavy betting on Friday's matches, which will open Thursday afternoon when the pairings are announced. CRICKET With Steve Waugh's announcement today that this is his last Test series, and an emotional farewell expected at the SCG in the New Year, how could anything but an Australian victory in the First Test against India and then the series be possible? India were whitewashed on their last trip to Australia, suffering a 3-0 series defeat. Adjusting from the low and slow turning decks of the sub continent to the faster bouncy tracks in Australia has been a problem for them in the past, and although they have a lot of experience in their batting line, they still fail when leaving the comfort of home. The exception of course is Sachin Tendulkar who has performed brilliantly wherever the game is played. Their bowling attack will be under the whip as well, with Agit Agarkar the only bowler in the lineup to have performed well in Australia. Harbhajan Singh makes his first trip to our shores and Anil Kumble was very expensive in taking only 5 wickets on the last tour. The Australian batting will enjoy the inexperienced attack, with Hayden, coming off a test record score in the last series, leading the way. The bowling may be a bit thin with injuries to Glenn McGrath and Brett Lee, leaving the way for Jason Gillespie and Andy Bichel to lead the charge. We have already taken a bet of $30,000 for the Aussies at $1.65 to win the first test which begins next week. South Australia have shown excellent early season form in the 4 day format with two outright victories from three games. The bowling attack has performed brilliantly with Paul Rofe (14 Wkts) and Mark Cleary (10), both in the leading wicket takers for the season in the competition. Throw in Jason Gillespie (7 wkts against NSW) and Shane Tait (7 wkts 2 gms) back from injury, and it is a well balanced attack. The batting has been misfiring a bit with gun recruit Andy Flower taking some time to find his feet in Australian conditions and Darren Lehmann out through injury, but to balance this, 18 year old Mark Cosgrove, or 'Jnr Boof' as they are calling him, has performed well in the middle order to enable competitive scores to be posted. Queensland have been struggling without their Australian representatives, namely Matthew Hayden, Jimmy Maher, Andrew Symonds, Andy Bichel and Michael Kasprowicz. Hayden is likely to be rested before the First test against India, but with the other four added to the squad, it will add some much needed experience to the team embarrassed by Tasmania last start. South Australia go in as favourites at $1.70, but there are no takers at that price. In ING Cup news, New South Wales were brought back to earth last week by South Australia. After looking set to knock SA over cheaply when they were 5/65, lower order resistance enabled a score of 245 to be posted. The reply never got going, at one stage being 6/89, and bowled out for 184. History says they will not slip up again as they have not lost two in a row since midway through the 2001/02 season (17 games). Tasmania would be buoyed by their victory against Queensland in the 4 day version of the game, and even though they have not won an ING Cup match this year, would not be without hope. We have taken two bets totaling $11,000 for NSW at $1.42, so hopefully Tasmania can chalk up a win. HARNESS RACING The Miracle Mile has always been shrouded in controversy following the selection of the final field, but that has disappeared this year as Harold Park has gone to an eight horse field. The major problem with that is that the entire field will be off the front line, so those drawn out in barriers seven and eight are going to need a terrible lot of luck. Nominal favourite is The Falcon Strike, a $2.40 chance after drawing the pole. We have seen some support at that quote, but the risk with him is whether he will be 'taken on' should he hold the lead. If he leads, he'll probably win, so it is more than likely he will be under siege during the race. Some money has come from New Zealand for Jack Cade ($5.50), and he might be the one to get a nice trail behind the favourite, but it has been the other Kiwi, Just an Excuse, where the bulk of Kiwi dollars have gone. Two separate bets of $1000 have gone on Just an Excuse at $12, as well as $6000 in bets to finish in the top three at $3.25. Last years winner, Double Identity, is solid in betting at $4.75, with the largest bet so far being $1800, and we have also seen a bet of $2000 for Sokyola at $13. What this all tells us is that punters are having a difficult time trying to work out the likely winner as there are so many things that might happen during the running, and it all boils down to luck. That makes it all the better to bet on! GREYHOUNDS The time honoured Melbourne Cup will be decided at Sandown on Thursday night and Victorian sprinter Bombastic Shiraz has drawn the coveted red box. He is favourite at $2.65 after opening at $2.75, with the bulk of early action on the recent 'Shootout' winner. The inside draw is a big advantage in big races, and Bombastic Shiraz should get a nice 'cart' behind the speedy Spring Secret, second elect at $3.75. There is little doubt that the quickest dog in the field is Petite Verdot, and while she was backed to win $3000 at $8 when betting opened, Petite Verdot has a horror draw out in box eight. There is plenty of early speed in the middle of the field, with one of those, Smack Wallop, attracting two bets of $200 at $26. These races always take the fancy of many of our Scandinavian punters, and most of those have gone for the aptly named Kumta Chase at $7. On the same card, we will also be betting on the 'Bold Trease' Cup, a raced named in honour of the stayer who won four Sandown Cups on end. Arvo's Junior had his Sandown record blemished recently with two defeats after having won twelve on end over the distance. He looked very 'flat' in his heat last week, and we think he is a risk from box two in the final. The $2.50 we are offering has been quite popular, but there has also been money for the possible leader in Rare Aussie at $5.50. Proven Adonis made up a stack of ground on Arvo's Junior to run a very close fourth in that heat last week, and if he can keep out of trouble in the run to the first turn, we expect the $3.50 second favourite to win. V8 SUPERCARS The 2003 V8 supercar series reaches its conclusion this weekend at Eastern Creek Raceway. This round consists of two races, 150km on Saturday, and a 250km event on Sunday. Three drivers are still in the hunt for the title with Marcus Ambrose leading Greg Murphy by just 6 points, and defending champion Mark Scaife a further 12 points back. Although Greg Murphy ($4 in both races) has been the form driver over the past few weeks, two of his wins were on his home track in New Zealand. We have posted Ambrose favourite at $3.75, and while the longer races can produce an upset, it is worth noting that he did lead home Ford in a 1-2-3 finish at Eastern Creek earlier this year. FOOTBALL Do you want to know the latest get-rich-quick scheme that is sweeping the betting world? Visit any online forum and you will come across hundreds of systems and strategies, many of them so complicated in their approach to be of benefit to mathematics professors only. There is a belief that simple systems are incapable of beating bookmakers and that punters must implement sophisticated strategies so as to maximise their chances of defeating betting agencies. That is nonsense and here is the proof. Could anything be simpler than placing Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United in a English Premier League treble every time that the competition's top three teams play games against the division's other sides within 48 hours of each other? Probably not as it is a straightforward system whose execution demands little of the punter. Would it then surprise you to find out that punters betting in this unfussy manner are 24 points ahead of the game this season? Your eyes are not playing tricks on your brain. Punters following this basic strategy are killing bookmakers with a 70 per cent strike rate - seven wins from ten bets - so far this term. Such is the chasm between the title-chasing trio and the rest that there is reason to suspect that the system will continue rewarding its disciples, of which there are a growing number. Below is the data that proves that the Gunners, Blues and Red Devils banker treble is the hottest fashion accessory with soccer punters currently. AUGUST 16-17 $1.35 Arsenal beat Everton $2.85 Chelsea beat Liverpool $1.25 Manchester United beat Bolton Cumulative profit/loss: +3.81 units
AUGUST 23-24 $1.80 Arsenal beat Middlesbrough $1.25 Chelsea beat Leicester $2.10 Manchester United beat Newcastle Cumulative profit/loss: +7.54 units
AUGUST 30-31 $1.80 Arsenal beat Manchester City $1.55 Chelsea drew with Blackburn $1.65 Manchester United lost to Southampton Cumulative profit/loss: +6.54 units
SEPTEMBER 13 $1.30 Arsenal drew with Portsmouth $1.55 Chelsea beat Tottenham $1.65 Manchester United beat Charlton Cumulative profit/loss: +5.54 units
SEPTEMBER 26-27 $1.55 Arsenal beat Newcastle $1.35 Chelsea beat Aston Villa $1.55 Manchester United beat Leicester Cumulative profit/loss: +7.78 units
OCTOBER 4-5 $2.70 Arsenal beat Liverpool $1.80 Chelsea beat Middlesbrough $1.33 Manchester United beat Birmingham Cumulative profit/loss: +14.24 units
OCTOBER 25-26 $1.65 Arsenal drew with Charlton $1.50 Chelsea beat Manchester City $1.30 Manchester United lost to Fulham Cumulative profit/loss: +13.24 units
NOVEMBER 1 $1.70 Arsenal beat Leeds $1.90 Chelsea beat Everton $1.33 Manchester United beat Portsmouth Cumulative profit/loss: +16.54 units
NOVEMBER 8-9 $1.45 Arsenal beat Tottenham $1.60 Chelsea beat Newcastle $2.25 Manchester United beat Liverpool Cumulative profit/loss: +20.76 units
NOVEMBER 22 $1.80 Arsenal beat Birmingham $1.80 Chelsea beat Southampton $1.33 Manchester United beat Blackburn Cumulative profit/loss: +24.07 units You cannot jump on the Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United bandwagon this weekend because the Blues and Red Devils meet in a match that may go some way to determining the destiny of the championship. Next week we will review its impact on title betting and round up the rest of the action. Just in case that you are wondering, the Gunners travel to Leicester, Chelsea visit Leeds and Manchester United host Aston Villa on December 6. Log on to Centrebet's Web site next week if you want to bet on the banker treble. And why wouldn’t you?
Until next week, good punting. For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or
centrebet@centrebet.com.
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