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Centrebet Capers
RUGBY LEAGUE The only thing certain in the Tri Series to date is that the matches are a game of two halves. 'Of course' you may say! Trouble is the first half is dominated by one side, the second by the other. Great Britain were certainly impressive in the first half against the Kangaroos, and as the history books state, were unlucky to lose, again, with a last minute try to Penrith winger Luke Rooney. That being the case we were not concerned when punters were prepared to take the $2.65 the Kiwis on Saturday night or the six points start. Our first wager was $5,000 on New Zealand, from a New Zealand client, which was followed by $10,000 locally at the start. There was a smattering of money for the Lions coming from the UK at $1.47, however leading into game time all the serious money was for the Kiwis with the largest bet being another $12,000 at the $2.65. There was no doubt by kick off where our allegiances lay. New Zealand came out pumped just as they did in the first two games of the Tri Nations Series, and with early tries to Lauititi and Williams, opened up a handy 12-2 lead at half-time. This was a similar scoreline to the first two Tests against the Kangaroos, however second half fade outs in both these games saw them escape with a draw in the first, and a 32-12 walloping in the second. Such a fade out was not expected in this game against the Lions, who themselves suffered a similar fade out when leading the Kangaroos 12-4 the week before. We would have certainly been happy to call all bets off at this stage, and were not expecting a second have revival as seen in the previous games. New Zealand was $1.50 favourites at half-time, and conceding 4½ points, which given the flow of the game seemed pretty much on the button, however whatever Great Britain coach Brian Noble said to his charges at the break certainly worked as they came out a much more committed unit, turning the game on its head and emerging victors 22-12. All four games now experiencing a second half fade out from the team in charge. Yes this series has certainly been played in two halves to date. Early betting on the return Australia/Great Britain leg has the Kangaroos $1.57 favourites, or conceding 4½ points, while the Lions are $2.40. Early money has been for the Kangaroos, with the largest wager being $29,000 at the opening quote from a Sydney client forcing that price into $1.55 with the home team drifting slightly to $2.45. However the Kangaroos have a change again in the halves, with Craig Gower joining Darren Lockyer on the injured list, and also front rower Jason Ryles with a hamstring complaint. While there is no doubting the touring parties depth, a second change in the play making area may leave them slightly vulnerable. Even more so if they lead at the half! GOLF South African Retief Goosen, the reigning U.S Open champion, overcame a four shot deficit heading into the final round to win the season ending Tour Championship. He shot a 6 under par 64 to finish four shots clear of Tiger Woods, who could only manage a 2 over par 72, to claim his second PGA title of the year. The Tour Championship is recognised as the ‘fifth major’ of the year and punters reacted accordingly with plenty of activity. Els was well supported, backed to win $50,000 at $8.50, and then a further $100,000 at $8, while Vijay Singh was backed to win in excess of $100,000 at $3.75, with last week's lucky winner happy to see part of that windfall go round again. By the halfway mark of the tournament, both Els and Singh were in trouble, while topliners Woods and Goosen were well placed, in a tie for third, three shots behind leader, veteran Jay Haas. Betting had Woods favourite at $3.25 with Goosen at $5 along with Stephen Ames, two shots behind Haas, at $6, and Haas at $7.Punters were prepared to get involved again at this stage of the betting with two separate bets of $10,000 at $3.25 on Woods, along with a host of other wagers, while one local punter backed Goosen to win $100,000 at $5. The third round of the tournament impacted heavily on the betting with Woods shooting a five under par 65 to grab a share of the lead with Jay Haas, four shots clear of Weir, Goosen and Ames. Tiger appeared set to win his first stroke play event of the year and was posted a firm $1.50 favourite in front of Haas at $3.50 the Goosen at $13. Tiger was all they wanted however and with solid support firmed into $1.45 with Jay Haas, winless since 1993, unlayable. The rest is history now, with Goosen shooting a sublime six under par 64 to take the tournament by four shots from a stumbling Woods while the bookies hope, Jay Haas, well let's just say he had a day to forget, finishing five over par on the day and dropping into a tie for seventh. The major tours are in hiatus at this time of the year, however the Greg Norman sponsored Franklin Templeton shoot-out should keep golfing punters on their toes. The event was won last year in a play-off by the team of Jeff Sluman and Hank Kuehne at 23 under par for the three rounds. The format of alternate shot foursomes, four ball better ball and scramble produces an exciting and tight contest and this year should be no different. Favourite in the betting is the team of Steve Flesch and Justin Leonard at $5, however it is the team of John Daly and Rory Sabbatini which has attracted the most interest carrying one $16,000 wager at $5.50. Also well in the betting are the teams of Chad Campbell and Chris Riley at $6 while defending champions, Sluman and Kuehne, are value at $8. This format often produces a surprise result and this year should be no different. To make sure the punting public has their fill of golf for the week we are also offering a market on the Japanese Tour event, the Taiheiyo Masters, which sees hardened European Tour veterans Lee Westwood and Darren Clarke heading the betting at $7. Both these players have been backed to win $150,000 at their opening price, which indicates punters are happy to back their favourite player on any continent however they should be prepared for stiff opposition from the likes of polished locals, Shingo Katayama, $13, Toshmitsu Izawa, $15 and dual winner on the tour this year, Toru Tanagushi at $17. If the courses are as difficult as it is to pronounce the local players names then Westwood and Clarke are in for a tough assignment. BASKETBALL With most teams having completed at least a quarter of their schedule in the NBL we are finally seeing the emergence of the main Championship contenders. Or are we? Sydney and Wollongong have risen to the top of the ladder and the top of the betting charts and share favouritism at $3.75. Perth have a similar W-L record to Wollongong but their chances were dealt a severe blow this week with a season ending injury to centre Matthew Burston. How well they are able to replace him will determine their chances for the remainder of the season. There are big surprises at the other end of the ladder with Brisbane, Melbourne and Cairns currently sitting outside the top eight. For the two Queensland teams the scheduling has more to do with their slow start to the season than any other reason. Both have only played 3 games at home whilst having played 8 (Brisbane) and 7 (Cairns) on the road. The Melbourne Tigers have no such excuse and even at this stage are entitled to be concerned about their playoff hopes. Punters finished just on the right side of the ledger in Round 6 of the NBL with the heavily supported Perth (-5.5 v Townsville), Perth (-1.5 v Adelaide), Wollongong (-10.5 v Cairns), Townsville (-2.5 v Melbourne) and Sydney (-4 v New Zealand) all being successful. They gave some back when Adelaide were all the rage to beat Sydney and the upset wins of Brisbane over West Sydney and Cairns over Brisbane were some help to bookmakers. Early results in Round 7 have favoured the punters also with Sydney having a good win on the road against Cairns. One German client thought the top of the ladder Kings were entitled to give up more of a start than 3½ points against the last placed Taipans and invested €3000 at the 1.90 line. He didn't have a moment's worry. Coming up this week we have Perth taking on Sydney in the TV game on Saturday and then backing up to meet West Sydney on Sunday. It is a difficult assignment at any time but especially so without Burston or a replacement for him so punters will be taking short odds the Sydney sides at Centrebet. The NBA has been underway for over a week now and at the time of writing Indiana, Miami, Dallas, Utah and Phoenix are yet to taste defeat. Perhaps Utah has been the biggest surprise of that group but their quick start didn't go unnoticed by a number of punters who jumped on them at 66/1 to win the Championship. CRICKET It looks as though one of the highlights of the Australian sporting calendar, the Boxing Day Test at the MCG, will be played at the Telstra Dome this year. The series against Pakistan is one that many have been looking forward to, but the bad weather that Melbourne has been experiencing has caused a major setback to the relaying of the ground at the MCG which was ripped up after the AFL Grand Final. The Telstra Dome will use a 'drop in' pitch as was the case when a one day match was played there during the winter a couple of seasons ago, but the surrounds aren't really conducive to Test cricket. It will be a very interesting exercise if that is the way things have to be. Before that though, New Zealand will be in Australia, and the First Test is due to get underway in Brisbane next Thursday, that is if it stops raining in the 'Sunshine State'! Record amounts of rain have been dumped on South East Queensland this week, but one advantage that they do have is that there is ample time for the grounds to dry out, if it stops raining. The Kiwi's look like they will be without Captain Stephen Fleming, and that is a massive loss. Last time that New Zealand played in Australia, there were three matches, and the result was three draws, and ironically the first was in Brisbane, and was due to rain. On paper, they look inferior to Australia, and for that reason we have opened them up at $7 to win the first Test, the Aussies at $1.67, with the draw well in the betting at $2.80. Australia have a clear form edge coming off an historic series' victory in India over India while New Zealand have had a soft preparation with a recent series against lightweights Bangladesh. We have already taken about $4000 for the draw, but if the skies clear, we expect the serious money to come for Australia. RUGBY UNION The commencement of a string of International fixtures got under way on Saturday evening when the Wallabies proved too polished for a depleted Scotland at Murrayfield, easing to a 31-14 victory. But was the fight shown by Scotland in the second half just that, or was the polished display not that polished. Whether the Wallabies took their combined feet off the pedal or not is not too relevant as France, Grand Slam champions, will prove a completely different kettle of fish, especially on home turf at the Stadium de Paris. This is a full strength French side with a big pack and classy backs. The Wallabies need to be on their mettle. France have been installed $1.80 favourites with the Wallabies at $2, and although early money has been slow this game is sure to be a betting highlight as more bookmakers offer what is certain to be ‘opinionated’ markets. Other tests on the weekend see a much improved Italian outfit take on the might of the All Blacks in Rome. The All Blacks without Justin Marshall and a change to their backline look a little less familiar on paper, however any team boasting forwards of the calibre of Richie McCaw, Jerry Collins and Chris Jack must be fully respected. The visitors are at the prohibitive odds or $1.02 and must concede 32 points while the home team are $13. A home victory would be a surprise but expect them to put up a solid showing. The third game of the weekend has a full strength Irish side taking on the Springboks at Lansdowne Road. The Boks were not too impressive with their two point win over the Welsh last weekend, however like the Wallabies, they too may have taken the foot off the pedal. Given that they had two solid wins over the Irish on home soil some two months ago, the Springboks have been installed deserving $1.57 favourite and must concede 4½ points while the Irish, always tough at home, are $2.40. With injury doubts over fly half Jaco van der Westhuyzen, and with Irish captain Brian O'Driscoll 100% fit then this game will go down to the wire. ENTERTAINMENT Another shock in Australian Idol at the weekend when Courtney Murphy was shown the door. Courtney had been popular with punters all week, but obviously wasn't as popular with the voters. We took nearly $6000 worth of bets for Courtney to win the Idol title at $4, as well as two $5000 bets for Anthony at $1.33. The only one that punters didn't want was Casey, who blew out to $10, but she now finds herself in the final two, but still as the outsider. One thing we did do last week that we hadn't tried before was bet on who would go. Casey was the top elect at $1.30, and in amongst a series of bets for her, we took one bet of $6000. Courtney had some backing at $3.25, with Anthony the outsider at $21. Now we are down to the final two, and with two weeks before the big event, opinions differ vastly on who will win. For all the reasons mentioned before, and also that he is our worst result, we opened up Anthony at $1.16 with Casey at $4.50. In the first 48 hours of betting, nearly $5000 has been placed on Casey which has seen her price cut to $3.75, but by the same token we have taken bets of $2000 and $1500 for Anthony at $1.22, so he looks likely to enter the final show as a warm favourite. The other 'reality' show currently being shown in Australia, Dancing with the Stars, has certainly gone up a notch or two as far as betting goes. There are only three couples left, and the voting from Tuesday night would suggest that there is little between all three as far as popularity goes. Dancing? Well that's a different matter. There is little doubt that Pauline Hanson is the worst of the trio left, but she has proven immensely popular with the voting public, and punters, and is now $2.50 after being $34 following week one. All our 'form analysts' in the office have nominated Bec Cartwight as a 'certainty', but she only narrowly missed the bullet on Tuesday night, so we have wound her price out to $2 after being $1.90 last week. The big mover for the week has been Justin Melvey, who was originally our favourite at $2.75 before touching $7 last week. Justin finished on top in the voting this week, and was also given the judges nod, so he is back into $3.50. GREYHOUNDS The Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival is all but over with only the Sandown Classic and Bendigo Cup to go, but the greyhound action is starting heat up in Victoria, starting tonight (Thurs) with the 'Shootout' at Sandown Park. The Shootout is limited to a field of four only, with each runner's connections paying $5000 to enter, and the booty is $50,000 to the winner. Any one of the four runners is capable of winning, and to prove how open it is, Paua to Burn, who equalled the track record two weeks ago is a $4.25 chance. The Sydney sprinter is capable of leading, which would make her hard to beat, but punters have shunned her. Most support has been for boom sprinter Whiskey Assassin ($2.10 into $1.90), led up by a bet of $2500 at the opening price. Although previously unplaced in all three runs at Sandown, Whiskey Assassin has been setting tracks alight recently, having won the Geelong and Shepparton Cups at two of his last three starts, and is drawn admirably out in box seven. Hallucinate ($4.25) has a better record at the Meadows, but box one is a huge advantage anytime, and for that reason there has been interest in the Tony Lockett owned sprinters, as is also the case with Panicked ($5.50). We will also be covering the Traralgon Cup which will be run on Sunday. Peter Giles has three runners in the final, and he has the pre-post favourite Our Spence ($2.75) drawn down in box two. Our Spence has attracted nearly $2000 in bets early in the week following his quickest heat win, but we think he may be a risk as there is a lot of early pace in the race. Any one of the eight could win without surprising. SOCCER English football fans have had the better of us for the majority of the season so far, but they were down for the count after last weekends results. The well supported Arsenal, Man Utd, Liverpool and Southampton all failed to win, and of course with most multiple punters including Arsenal and Man Utd in their weekend 'all-ups', the good results spread across to other competitions as well. Arsenal's mini slump continued with a 1-1 draw away to Crystal Palace. As mentioned, Arsenal were the anchor leg in most multiples, but we also too a bet of 150,000 NOK ($30,000) at the win price of $1.45. Man Utd didn't fare much better as they failed to put away their injury hit neighbours, drawing 0-0 at home with Man City. There was one significant bet of €25,000 for Man Utd at $1.45, but we were surprised to see one Aussie client come on line with a bet of $17,000 for Man City at $8! Southampton aren't a side that normally attracts heavy betting, but the money from Asia, including one bet of $USD 30,000, was for Southampton to beat West Brom at $1.90. The match ended 2-2. The biggest upset of the round though was Liverpool losing their 100% record at Anfield, going down 1-0 to a struggling Birmingham. The biggest 'singles' bet on Liverpool was $14,000 at $1.55, but their loss killed of a fortune in multi's. All this meant that Chelsea took advantage of their rivals woes to claim top spot in the premiership. Arsenal maintain slight favourtism at $2 (after being $1.33 before their defeat at Old Trafford two weeks ago), with Chelsea into $2.15 and Man Utd on the drift to $13. This week the 'big three' all face tricky away games. Arsenal ($1.75) travel across North London to play Tottenham, who will be fired up to beat their local rivals with new manager Martin Jol at the helm. We have noticed a distinct lack of support for Arsenal in this match, with the two largest bets so far being both for the draw ($4000 and $2500) at $3.40. Chelsea ($1.70) also have a 'derby' match at West London against rivals Fulham, and again the early interest, including bets of $4000 and $3000, has been for the draw at $3.40. Man Utd have to travel up to Newcastle, and while there has been solid support for Man Utd at $2.30, there is also good money for the draw at $3.30. At this early stage of the week, we haven't sighted any money from Asia for any of the Premiership matches, which is rare, but no doubt they will be active come game day. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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