Last week
I talked about betting on the First Half of football games. This week
I want to finish off the set by talking about betting during Halftime
and the opportunities that arise by betting on a sporting event where
you have already seen half the game before you make your play. Some of
you will recognize part of this material as I published a similar
article but once again I think this is important enough to be covered
every year and the NFL was kind enough to provide some fresh examples
for me over the past few days.
For those
of you who may be unfamiliar, Halftime wagering is available for
football and basketball, and is wagering on the score of the Second
Half only, including Overtime if applicable. The lines become
available at or near the end of the First Half, and are available only
until the Second Half starts. This makes Halftime wagering very
different from other forms of sports wagering. For most events, you
can handicap the game well in advance and you can spend lots of time
shopping for the best line to give you the best chance of winning.
With Halftime wagering, you have little or no time to handicap teams
or to shop for the best line, but you do have the advantage of having
seen the teams play. Book managers do not have time to handicap
Halftime lines either (they rely on a comparison of their handicapping
for the entire game, action on the game and the score to determine
their Halftime line) and no sportsbook can watch every game, so if you
are watching an event where the score is not indicative of the actual
play, you may be able to take advantage of the lines and find a very
juicy play. Perhaps one team was hit with a rash of injuries, or is in
foul trouble, or rallied late in the First Half and looks to have
momentum – situations like these can be very profitable for
disciplined players. With Halftime wagering, the bettor has an
advantage in getting to watch the teams play before wagering, and the
House has an advantage in that players have very little time to
handicap or shop for lines. Note that Key Numbers are very important
in Halftime wagering as they occur with even greater frequency for a
half than they do for a game.
See my column of 3 weeks ago if you want to learn more about key
numbers.
There are
a few particular situations that arise that can provide the player
with the ultimate edge. One opportunity comes when you have played on
an underdog and they are ahead at the end of the First Half. Bettors
who played on Baltimore were presented with such an opportunity this
past Monday Night. The Ravens were a 7 to 9-point dog, depending on
where you got in, but if you had bet them for the game, betting at
Halftime would give you a chance to profit twice without risk of a
loss. I know this sounds too good to be true, but with the Ravens up
by 28 and getting 7+ points, this was effectively a 35-point lead for
betting purposes, and those bets were effectively winners. The
Halftime line was Denver –8, so if you had Baltimore for the game and
the Broncos –8 in the Second Half, you could win both, but not lose
both. If Denver mounted a miraculous comeback and covered the game
line, your Second Half winner would payoff, as they would have had to
outscore the Ravens by at least 35 for the Second Half. However, if
the Broncos win the Second Half by 9 to 34 points, you would win both
bets as was the case last night with the Broncos outscoring the Ravens
20-3 after the break. Denver by less than 8 in the Second Half would
mean you break even (less the vig), and this was indeed the case this
weekend. I don’t advocate trying to play middles like this, as you
worked hard to get a winner with your Ravens bet only to end up with
nothing (its kind of like splitting face cards against a 6 in
Blackjack) but in the right situations it can be a profitable tool.
The opposite scenario can also work when you have the favorite for the
game, they have a big lead at Halftime, and you play the dog at the
break.
There is
another situation that arises when an underdog is leading at the half,
and I’ll use the Saints/Lions game from this past Sunday to illustrate
this point. The Saints were a 7.5 to 9-point favorite but found
themselves down 20-7 to the Lions at the end of the First Half. As
mentioned above, players who had the Lions for the game could take New
Orleans in the Second Half and hope to win both (and they would have)
but an opportunity also presented itself to players that were
undecided on the game and wanted to play the favorite laying fewer
points. If you liked the Saints, but thought, “9 points is too many”,
then betting at Halftime presented a golden opportunity. With the
Halftime spread Saints –7 and New Orleans down 13, the Saints now only
had to get to within 5 for the bet to be a winner. With New Orleans
outscoring the Lions 14-6 in the Second Half, they covered the
Halftime line, but not the game, so seizing this opportunity would
have paid off. This obviously isn’t any sort of system (see the Rams
game if you want to see a case where this doesn’t work) but it is
something to consider as the seconds tick down on the First Half. The
opposite case can work as well, when an underdog becomes an even
larger underdog if the favorite has a big lead at the break and you
can bet the dog getting more points.
There are
similar situations involving totals so it’s worth spending a few
minutes with a pen and paper working through all the different
scenarios to see how you can profit. It also helps to chart scores by
Half for teams to see which teams play more dominantly in the first 30
minutes and which play better in the last 30 minutes. Halftime
wagering has become increasingly popular over the last 3 years, and
handle on the Halftimes of yesterday’s games was about one fourth of
the handle for the entire games, according to BoDog’s top bookmaker,
Kent. This much wagering action packed into 10-15 minutes can make for
very rapid line moves, so make sure you plan out what play you want
before turning on your computer or picking up your phone as you won’t
have much time to second guess yourself. Sportsbooks offer Halftime
wagering because they make money on commission, so the more that is
wagered, the more they can make (hopefully). As a player, you need to
be aware that this extra wagering opportunity can be very profitable
if used with discipline and in the right situation.
Once
again, I am pleased to offer Kent’s Line Move of the Week. As
mentioned, he is BoDog’s number one bookmaker (our top dog so to
speak…) and he has been kind enough to let us into his head for one
game a week. Here are his thoughts. “This week’s line has to be the
Monday Night game. We opened with Denver –7.5 and moved down to –7 on
the news of Griese’s silly injury. There was a little Denver action
but handle was light because of the injury and what was perceived as a
poor game to watch. When Griese was announced as the starter we
quickly moved back to 7.5 and the action really heated up. We moved
from there all the way up to 9 on steady Broncos action all weekend.
It looks like the Ravens’ bettors were hoping it would get to +10 but
gave up and took +9, and even later +8.5, as there was a late rush of
Ravens money. The contrarians (people who bet against public
sentiment) had a good night, as did we. The old adage ‘Home Dogs Bite
Big’ certainly was the case again tonight.”
My thanks
to Kent, as always, and I will be back next week with a quick look at
the baseball playoffs and some thoughts on how television affects
wagering trends.
I always
welcome comments, questions and suggestions via email at
rob@bodog.com
Rob Gillespie
Operations Manager
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