Lets face
facts. Watching sports on TV is entertainment for just about every
person that is reading this column. Wagering is also a form of
entertainment for the majority of bettors. Therefore it is logical to
conclude that betting on sports events that are on TV is a double
pleasure for most fans, and indeed this is the case. (The sooner the
professional sports leagues in the US realize this, and embrace the
betting public, the better in my humble opinion. Didn’t work for the
XFL, but at least they tried). However, today I want to give you a
little something to think about before you make your next bet on a
televised game that will maybe save you some money over the course of
the season.
On any
given weekend there are 40-45 college football games and 14-16 in the
NFL, a total of roughly 60. As book managers we spend equal time on
just about every game because we have to. We are going to take bets on
every game so all the lines must be as accurate as possible. If you go
through yourself and handicap each game, you will find that you have
opinions on a lot of games. Perhaps you will see 15-20 games where you
say to yourself “Gee, I thought that spread would be higher”, etc. Of
those, maybe you have a “strong” feeling on 5-10 and those are the
ones you choose to bet. I would consider this the right approach to
handicapping if you are trying to make a profit.
However,
many players seem to start their handicapping with the TV guide as
they only bet televised games. This must be the case or else the 10-12
nationally televised games wouldn’t account for 50% of our handle each
weekend. I understand the desire to have a play in on any game you are
going to watch, and that is great if you consider betting merely a
form of entertainment, but in my opinion that is the wrong approach to
handicapping for profit. I met a couple of the best handicappers in
the business on a trip to Las Vegas last year and had a chance to take
in a Monday Night football game with them. I asked them which team
they had given to their clients and both said they hadn’t given out
any plays for the game because they didn’t have a strong enough
opinion. Their reputation and relationship with their players was more
important than the easy sales they would have gotten from the game. In
their minds, Monday Night Football was “just another football game”.
That is the type of approach and attitude it takes to succeed as a
bettor (or a handicapper) in the long run. My point here is don’t
limit your bet selections to just televised games and don’t bet every
televised game if you want to be profitable in the long run.
Right
about now, my bosses are picking up the phone to call and scream at me
for telling players not to bet so I better offer some point of
reconciliation. If you want to have a play in for a big TV game (and I
know how much more exciting a 21-3 game is when the spread is 17 and
the dog has the ball late!) take some time to consider options other
than the spread or the total. Just as there are a wide variety of
games to choose from on any given weekend, there are also a wide
variety of wagers to choose from for each game. Have a look at lines
for the First Half and at Halftime. Look through the list of
player/team props that most books offer for TV games. Consider making
a play for less than your typical bet amount if the play is for
entertainment only (although I am a strong advocate of keeping your
bet sizes the same when handicapping to maximize profit). The bottom
line is (and I can’t take credit for either of these lines) “they play
the National anthem every day” and “The Super Bowl is just another
football game.” Keep each game you are betting on in perspective and
you will be a more profitable bettor at the end of the season.
Once
again, I am pleased to offer Kent’s “Line Move of the Week”. Kent is
BoDog’s top bookmaker and each week he offers a glimpse at the lines
of a game of interest. This week’s selection was the Maryland upset of
West Virginia on Saturday. Here is what he had to say:
“I opened
the line West Virginia –3 and by Friday afternoon it was clear that
the public really like West Virginia. I hate to move off 3 if I can
help it so I went to –3 (-115), -3 (-120) and even –3 (-125) in an
effort to stem the tide. Other books were already at –3.5 and a few
were already at –4 so I made a bold move and moved to –4. These are
the kind of line moves that make book managers go bald but even that
turned out not to be enough. Over the course of two hours Saturday
morning, the line went from –4 to –4 (-115), -4 (-120) as I certainly
didn’t want to move through 4 after moving off 3. However, the action
continued to pour in on West Virginia and I had no choice but to move
up. The problem is that after ‘the dam breaks’ so to speak and you
move to –4.5 there is no real resistance until –6 and that is where
the line closed at kickoff despite attempted curbs like –5 (-120) and
–5.5 (-115) among others. This was our most lopsided college game of
the year so far and I was a pretty happy guy when Maryland jumped out
to a quick 28-0 lead and held on for a 48-17 win. After that game, the
rest of the weekend seemed easy by comparison”.
Thanks
Kent. Unfortunately I have run out of room to talk about the baseball
playoffs so far in any detail but let me suffice it to say that many
bettors (and bookies too) have been caught by surprise at the high
scores (15 of the 17 games so far have gone over the posted total) and
the Yankees/A’s/Diamondbacks losing. Needless to say, books will be
upping the totals for the next round of games. I will be back next
week with a look at moneyline betting on football.
I
always welcome comments, questions and suggestions via email at
rob@bodog.com
Rob Gillespie
Operations Manager
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