Just about
every sports bettor on the planet understands, and bets on,
pointspreads, but only a fraction understand, and bet, moneylines. It
is an even smaller percentage of bettors that can recognize when a
moneyline is presenting value and play accordingly. In this week’s
column I want to discuss how to compare the spread to the moneyline so
you may be able to find some value yourself.
As a
starting point for those that have yet to try and figure out
moneylines, here is a quick primer. More experienced bettors can skip
to the next paragraph. Reading a moneyline is very simple. A typical
moneyline would be something like Denver Broncos –165, Miami Dolphins
+145. The –165 means you must risk $165 to win $100 on the Broncos
while the +145 means you get back $145 for each $100 risked should the
Dolphins win outright. Any –number means that is the risk to win $100
and any +number is the payoff for risking $100. It is that simple. In
the event of a tie, all moneyline wagers are settled as a Push and
monies are refunded. The difference between the two lines typically
starts at 20 “cents” in football and gets larger as the numbers get
higher. For example, if the favorite is –240, the dog may be +200, a
difference of 40 “cents”. The higher difference at higher numbers
simply serves to keep the percentage of vig for the house roughly the
same (perhaps I will cover this math in a later column, but you will
have to trust me on this for now).
Next
up, I want to look at how to compare a spread to a moneyline. Although
each offshore book is different, here is a chart that is published on
the Internet showing a general guideline for converting spreads to
moneylines in the NFL. Note that college is slightly different and is
omitted here in the interest of space.
|
Favorite Pointspread |
Corresponding Moneyline |
|
-2 |
-130/+110 |
|
-2.5 |
-140/+120 |
|
-3 |
-155/+135 |
|
-3.5 |
-175/+155 |
|
-4 |
-200/+170 |
|
-4.5 |
-220/+180 |
|
-5/-5.5 |
-240/+190 |
|
-6 |
-270/+210 |
|
-6.5 |
-300/+220 |
|
-7 |
-330/+250 |
|
-7.5/-8/-8.5 |
-360/+280 |
|
-9/-9.5 |
-400/+300 |
|
-10 |
-450/+325 |
|
-11 |
-550/+375 |
|
-12 |
-600/+400 |
|
-13 |
-650/+450 |
One of the most common questions I am asked in reader emails is
why we don’t offer moneylines for spreads outside the 2-14 range.
The reason is that outside these ranges it becomes difficult to
balance action. If a spread moves from –1.5 to –1, you don’t have
much room to move on the moneyline. Players will simply ignore
betting the +1 and take the dog at +105 or even, lowering the vig
for the house. Above 14, the moneylines are just too high. Bettors
seldom lay the big price and then the House sometimes takes big
hits when the big upsets come in (like last year’s Super Bowl).
All
right, now we can talk about value. This past weekend, players bet
heavier on 10 favorites, 3 dogs and were evenly split on one other
game. On the other hand, the moneyline action was heavier for ZERO
favorites, 7 dogs, and balanced on 6 (we had no moneyline for New
Orleans/Washington). Spreads were offside 10-3 on favorites -
Moneylines were offside 7-0 on dogs. Guess where you will find value.
Considering that favorites were 5-9 against-the-spread (ATS), but 9-5
Straight Up (SU), there was definitely moneyline value this past
weekend on the favorites.
An
interesting situation that arises as a result of these player trends
is that books often profit on both lines when a favorite wins but
doesn’t cover. Kansas City/San Diego is a great example. The spread
moved all the way from Chargers –3 last Monday to Chargers –4 at
kickoff. The Betting public was heavy on San Diego. However, our
moneyline only moved from –175 when posted on Thursday (spread was SD
–3.5 at the time) to –190 at kickoff. According to the chart above,
that moneyline should have been –200 but bettors didn’t seem to care
and were taking the Chiefs +165 in droves. When Drew Brees led the
winning drive to edge the Chiefs 35-34, we were left in a win-win
situation as we collected on both the Chargers money on the spread and
the Chiefs money on the moneyline. Note that the Bills-Texans,
Cowboys-Panthers and Colts-Ravens games also had the favorite winning
but not covering and resulted in a pretty good weekend for books.
These
betting trends are not limited to football. Over the past 4 days,
bettors had the favorite on the runline (baseball’s version of the
spread, always –1.5 runs) in all 6 League Championship games played.
They had the dog on the moneyline in 5 of those. With the favorite
winning by 1-run in three of the game (Anaheim 2-1 Friday, San
Francisco 4-3 Sunday and 2-1 Monday), we were able to collect both
ways on those three games and have a great baseball weekend.
Not
every moneyline will present an opportunity, but be sure to compare
the moneylines and corresponding spread. Wagering is a game of supply
and demand. Going against the public trends will lead to you getting
better “prices” on all your plays and you will be more profitable in
the long run.
As
always I am pleased to present BoDog’s top bookmaker, Kent, and his
Line Move of the Week. This past weekend, I was able to get down the
wager center/head office in Costa Rica and take in the action myself.
(If you get a chance to go to San Jose, be sure to go to the
restaurant Tex Mex in Santa Ana. Their Muchaca Burrito is by far my
favorite meal in Costa Rica, and perhaps the world, so I make it a
point to stop in on every trip and I made Kent take me there after the
last games kicked off on Saturday. I am still full...). Anyway, here
is what Kent had to say:
“I know
Rob is writing about Moneylines this week so I was going to use the
Chargers-Chiefs game. Now, he tells me he has already used that game
in his column. (You take the guy out for dinner and he steals your
thunder. What a guy!) Second choice would be the Broncos-Dolphins game
on Sunday Night. We opened Broncos –3.5 (Even) and I fully expected
this to be a messy 3/3.5 spread as many of the primetime games have
been this week. However, the number worked out very well as players
loaded up on Denver and the line moved to –3.5 (-110). The Dolphin
action was on the moneyline and it actually moved slightly in the
opposite direction from +155 down to +150. It looked like a golden
situation with us cheering for a small Broncos win. When the Broncos
scored to go up 22-21, we thought we had another big middle but the
Dolphins came back to win 24-22 and we ended up with just a modest
profit.”
My
thanks to Kent and remember to check the spread against the moneyline
in every sport you bet. Every once in a while, you will find a
mismatch and be able to take advantage of the value.
I
always welcome comments, questions and suggestions via email at
rob@bodog.com
Rob Gillespie
Operations Manager
Want to
read more from Rob Gillespie? Check out all of Rob's articles here.
Sign up
today at BoDog, click here.
