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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
[Australian Rules | AUSTRALIAN RULES] We finally got what we have all been waiting for, a close Aussie Rules grand Final, and while the inclement weather no doubt attributed to that, it also helped make for a spectacular betting contest. Mention was made around the country last week of the $200,000 bet for Brisbane at $1.25 which was placed by a Queensland punter, and that was on top of a $50,000 bet he had placed a few weeks prior. His $250K investment was never really safe until the final siren sounded, and it was amazing to learn that neither teams lead ever made it to double-digits, so it certainly was a game that could have gone either way. As the week progressed, we also took many other large bets, $35,000 ($1.22), $30,000 ($1.22) and another $30,000 at $1.20 for Brisbane to win. With the weather looking gloomy, we also made a point of "laying" Brisbane conceding the start, managing to get four separate $10,000 bets, with the last one coming at -28½ on the morning of the match. Collingwood had many admirers though, and a Victorian client placed $20,000 on the Magpies at $4.50, then came back for another bite of $10,000 on Saturday at $4.25. There were a staggering amount of small bets for Collingwood taken on Saturday, but we often see that in finals where the underdog attracts the attention of the little punter. Most of our exotic bet options proved as popular as we though they would, with the "standout" being the Norm Smith Medal, which was won in controversial style by Nathan Buckley. Buckley was a $13 chance and had plenty riding on him, but as it turned out Michael Voss ($8), who most thought should have won, took out exactly the same amount, so it didn't matter too much to us. Most of the Brisbane players were best backed, with Des Headland ($11), and Alistair Lynch ($21) attracting single bets of $2500 from a Sydney punter. Simon Black ($8) continued the trend of Brownlow Medalists who have an "off" day in a Grand Final, and he was also one of our worst results. The 2003 premiership betting was opened on Saturday night, and punters reacted immediately. Brisbane are the $2.75 favourites to become the fourth team in history to win three in a row, but the Lions haven't been backed as yet. Several Adelaide Crows fans must think Wayne Carey is going to be the answer for them as we took several bets at $6.50, and we also got nearly $4000 in bets for Collingwood as soon as the betting was posted at $10. Essendon had a lot of injuries this year, and a Victorian took the $9 on offer with a $1200 bet, and we also took a handful of small bets for Hawthorn ($21) and Fremantle ($51). Final eight and wooden spoon betting will open after the completion of the draw and current drafts, but it does look certain that Carlton will be all the rage for the wooden spoon. [Rugby League | RUGBY LEAGUE] Brisbane Lions winning the AFL premiership meant that there was over $½ million running into the Brisbane Bronco's as the second leg of the AFL/NRL premiership doubles, so it was a great relief when the Roosters put them out of the running, 16-12, on Saturday night. The Roosters had the form on the board coming into this match, and there were many question marks hanging over the Bronco's anyway, so we threw caution to the wind and went for the Roosters. Having said that however, we did taken bets of $15,000 and $9500 on them at $2, but the bigger money, including bets of $18,500 and $15,000, was for Brisbane who started slight favourites at $1.85. While we were right with the Roosters, we got it completely wrong when the Warriors beat Cronulla 16-10 on Sunday. Our thinking was that the Warriors would be "underdone" against the Sharks, but it was the Sharks who couldn't sustain the 80 minutes of intense pressure, and when a Stacey Jones kick broke a 10-10 deadlock 5 minutes from the finish, the Warriors were into their first Grand Final. While there was one early bet of $30,000 on Cronulla, and a few late ones when they touched $1.75, it was the Warriors who lined the pockets of punters from both sides of the Tasman. A Sydney client placed a total of $23,000 on New Zealand at $2.25, and we also took three bets totalling $28,000 from New Zealand at the same quote. New Zealand got into $2.05 at kick off, so they sure were a solid "go". Over the past four weeks, the Warriors have been backed to win $200,000 in premiership bets with Centrebet and last week there were four separate bets of $5000 at $5.25. All would agree that they would need to show improvement on last week's win, but we have taken lots of bets at $2.40 so far this week, and expect more to come. New Zealand are advantaged by this being a night game, and their forward pack is capable of penetrating the defence of the Roosters. The Roosters have always been known as a "glamour" side, and their record in finals recently has been far from good, but some of that stigma seems to have disappeared since coach Ricky Stuart took the helm. Punters haven't been frightened away as we have taken early bets of $20,000, $10,000 and $8000 at $1.55, and we can also expect some of those who secured the big odds New Zealand to be looking to have a "saver" on the Roosters as well. One Auckland client has placed $12,500 on the game total being under 42½ points, which is proving the most popular of our many exotic bets as is the Churchill Medal where Brad Fittler and Stacey Jones share favourtism at $6. This year, Centrebet has added several new options to our betting lists including most tackles, hit ups, line breaks, offloads, missed tackles and handling errors, all of these will be available today (Thurs). [Rugby Union | RUGBY UNION] Eastwood won their way through to the NSW Tooheys New Cup final following a win over Sydney Uni at the weekend. Although we had Eastwood the favourites at $1.80, a Sydney client placed two bets of $5500 on Uni at $1.90, so it was a winning result. We gave a little back when bets of $4000 and $3300 were placed on Randwick at -8½ to beat Wests, which they did comfortably, winning 48-25. It's now Sydney Uni up against Randwick this week to see who will go on to play Eastwood in the final. These two played out a draw four weeks ago, then Uni got up in the dying stages to beat Randwick two weeks ago, so there is dead set nothing between them. That's reflected in the betting, with Uni at $1.80 and Randwick at $2. While early betting has only seen a little over $3000 invested, it's split between the two sides so even punters are having trouble deciding who will win. [Motor Bikes | MOTOR BIKES] Colin Edwards won both Superbike races on the weekend in Italy to clinch the World Championship. It all turned horribly wrong for Troy Bayliss at the end of the season as Edwards won the last seven races to win the title by eleven points, and he also finished in second placing in both races at Imola. Edwards was backed into $1.50 to win both events, with three $2000 bets going on him to win both, while Bayliss eased right out to $2.50. Valentino Rossi and company are working their way towards Australia for the season finale, and this weekend they are in Motegi, Japan, for the Pacific Moto Grand Prix. Rossi is $1.40 favourite, but both Daijiro Katoh ($5) and Tohru Ukawa ($6) have been backed to take out over $5000, with Ukawa attracting a bet of $6000 to finish on the podium at $2. Aussie Gary McCoy is claiming that he is fast approaching peak fitness following some shocking wrist and arm injuries, and he has also been supported to gain a top three finish at $6. [Cricket | CRICKET] The final of the ICC Champions Trophy turned into a non-event when two attempts to play the final were interrupted by rain, so the prizemoney was split. For those that were wondering what happened with betting, it was pretty simple. If a person had bet to win the final at any stage prior to the last game, bets were paid on both Sri Lanka and India, treated as a "tie", and bets on the matches that weren't completed were fully refunded as there quite obviously wasn't a winner. Australia battled in their semi final against Sri Lanka in Colombo as a result of the oppressive conditions, so it will be very interesting to see how they handle Colombo's weather when the first test against Pakistan begins today (Thurs). Due to internal trouble, Pakistan will field a second rate squad, hence the long price of $11, which has been taken by a few Australian's who think that Steve Waugh's men are susceptible in these conditions. The "draw" is virtually unwanted at $2.60, apart from a $6000 bet from a Sydney punter. Our Indian clients think Australia will win, led by a bet of $US 15,000 at $1.70, and another of $12,000 at $1.65, but we think that that is poor odds give the likely conditions. [Basketball | BASKETBALL] The NBL season tipped off last night with the first televised match between last year's finalists, West Sydney and Adelaide. The Razorbacks went in as $1.40 favourites, or conceding 5 points, and although the match was very quiet, we did take two win bets of $5000 and $2500, as well as a $2200 bet to cover the spread. After a tardy start, West Sydney took control of the second half winning 104-92. These two sides were at the top of championship betting, with Adelaide ($4) backed to win $8000 prior to the season beginning. We don't expect a lot of action this week on most games as nearly every team has a different list to last season, so we expect punters will want to have one or two looks at some of these sides before getting serious. Saturday night's televised match on Fox Sports between Wollongong and Townsville has seen a few early bets come for Wollongong at $1.65, and also $4000 worth of bets at -2½ points ($1.90). No doubt the reason for that is the chance that the documentation for Townsville import Adonis Jordan won't be done in time for him to play, but that may not be know until Friday. [Golf | GOLF] Europe won an exciting Ryder Cup this year, which was good news for our Scandinavian punters as the Europeans were extremely well backed, so much so that it was a losing event for Centrebet. It was different however with the daily pairs, the result was much better with the American's carrying most of the support. David Toms gave us a good result when he won the title of leading US points scorer, and it was a timely return to form for Toms as we enter this week's Michelob Championship in Virginia. Toms has won the past two Michelobs, and is our $8 favourite this week, from David Duval ($12). Scott Hoch, ($31), Mike Weir ($18) and Jerry Kelly ($31) have each been backed to take out close to $30,000, but as yet we haven't found anybody to take the $26 for being successful in the Texas Open. Ernie Els is our $11 favourite to win the Dunhill Links Championship at St Andrews this week, but at this stage we are looking for Ernie to win as punters have been steering clear of him. An Australian client has backed both Colin Montgomerie ($13) and Vijay Singh ($15) to win $20,000 in a single bet, while a couple of outsiders in Paul Casey ($34), and Mattias Gronberg ($67) have been backed to take out $25,000 each way. Paul Lawrie ($34) won last year, but has been very much out of form, and the shortest of the Aussie contingent is Adam Scott at $34. Anika Sorenstam is $2.25 to win the Samsung World Championship in California, an event she failed miserably in last year. We have taken a $6000 bet for Sorenstam, as well as $1000 each way for Se Ri Pak ($6), who was placed third last year behind Dorothy Delasin. [Racing | RACING] All the good horses have been in action over the past month or so, and with Melbourne Cup favourite Vinnie Roe arriving this week, the level of interest in this year's Caulfield and Melbourne Cup's has increased dramatically over the past few years. This week, a Victorian punter backed Fields of Omagh ($13) to win $100,000 in the Caulfield Cup, which leads us to believe that the Cup, and not the Cox Plate, will be his main mission. Magical Miss remains favourite, now at $6, after being backed to take out $30,000 last week. As far as the Melbourne Cup goes, Pugin ($11) and Beekeeper ($21), two of the imports, continue to attract most interest, although we took a $1200 each way bet on Distinctly Secret ($17) this week. We haven't seen another surge of support yet for Vinnie Roe ($7), but now that he has landed safely in the country, he should go into the race as a pronounced favourite. Punters haven't read too much into Lohnro's loss in Sydney last week, and he remains favourite for the Cox Plate at $4, although Northerly ($4.50) and Defier ($5.50) have shortened dramatically. Northerly has been backed to take out $50,000 over the past two weeks, and while Defier is on the third line of betting, he is one horse that we haven't seen any serious money for as yet. Frankie Dettori's ride, Grandera, continues to firm, with a $1500 each way bet coming this week at $9. Due to travel commitments, this week Capers are a shortened version, but the longer the version of events will hopefully be back again next week. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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