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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
[Cricket | CRICKET] Australia, barring bad weather, are going to go into the first Test in Brisbane at prohibitive odds on if the early betting is an indication. The Aussies opened at $1.45, and while we haven’t heard from any of our Indian cricket followers as yet, close to $25,000 has gone on Australia at that quote. Nobody is keen to touch the draw at $3.50, and on recent results, only a huge deluge could force a draw. We have seen early support, from England, for the Poms, and have been forced to cut the price from $11 into $9 after they were backed to take out in excess of $40,000. One Sydney client has worked out that putting $20,000 on Australia to win the Series at $1.16 is probably better than trying to build his balance through bank interest, but again several of our English clients have been chipping away at the $11 for an English Series win. They must be joking! In “correct score” betting, the shortest way is Australia to win 4-0 at $4.20, but there has also been good money to say that Australia will create history and win 5-0 at $5.50. One of our “new” markets that has been well received is who will Shane Warne’s 500th victim be? Warnie only has 23 scalps to go to reach another milestone, but some don’t think he’ll do it during The Ashes. The “will not happen against England” option has attracted $2000 worth of bets at $6, while each of the English players likely to be playing have had bets placed on them. It’s Andy Caddick ($10) who has had the best backing, but of course the fact he is a tailender probably shouldn’t matter as Warnie is capable of getting anybody out, just ask Mike Gatting! Now that it’s official that Darren Lehmann will replace Mark Waugh in the squad, we have noticed that several punters think he will fail in his opening “dig”. Lehmann is $2.20 to make between 0-30 runs in his first innings, and that has been the option where most bets have been laid. A $3000 bet has been placed on Matthew Hayden to score 50 or more ($1.95) in the first innings, and another $2500 in bets has forced us to cut his price to $4.25 to top the Series. Locally, much needed rain nearly cost us plenty of money in the ING match on Sunday between QLD and Tasmania. We took a bet of $5600 on Tasmania to win at $4, and when bundled out for only 174, that should have been in our safe keeping. QLD were aware bad weather was looming, and after trying to keep the scoreboard ticking over at 3/117 (after 3 weather breaks), the Duckworth and Lewis scoring system saw QLD get home by only runs when the converted rates were worked out. Australia’s loss will be New South Wales gain when Mark Waugh plays for them on Sunday against South Australia in a One Day match. Punters reacted to that news with an early bet of $3000 on NSW at $1.50, but that does appear short enough away from home. There is currently a Pura Cup match being played between Victoria and Tasmania, and these two will also play an ING match on Sunday. The Vics are $1.65 favs to win that, carrying a bet of $4500 in early trading. [Rugby Union | RUGBY UNION] Rugby fans from three countries, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa, bet heavily on the NPC and Currie Cup finals at the weekend. The New Zealand NPC final went to Auckland, who recorded a 40-28 win over Waikato. Several good sized bets were taken early in the week for Auckland at $1.85, and when it was obvious that that support would continue, we went $2 Waikato. Several New Zealander’s took that, including bets of $8000 and $5500, but one of the last bets taken was from a Sydney client preparing to watch the game, and he took the $1.80 Auckland with a $10,000 bet. Sunday’s third division final between North Otago and Horo-Kapiti saw all one way traffic for North Otago at the handicap, and while we looked an excellent chance of getting the money for most of the match, the final scoreline of 43-19 in favour of North Otago was a small winner. The first bet we took was $15,000, from New Zealand, for North Otago at -22½ points. That bet was a winner, but fortunately we moved the line to -24½, before it eventually started -26½. Several $5000 bets came from New Zealand, and a bet of $4500 from South Africa, for North Otago, so we were very lucky that we moved the handicap. The Blue Bulls, $2.55 outsiders, defied their outsider status to beat the Lions 31-7 in the Currie Cup final. While most of the betting came from South Africa for the Lions ($10,000 at $1.48, $10,000 and $6000 at -5½ points), there were also a few Australian’s who stuck with the favourites. The Bulls had one fan in Australia who placed $3000 to win ($2.55) and $3000 with the start ($1.95), and they vindicated the form having beaten the Lions 33-20 in late August. The Super 12 draw is out, and all that does is reinforce that the Crusaders have to be short, and they are at $2.25. Again the Brumbies look the testing material, and are at $2.75. On the International side of rugby, Australia play Argentina this week in Buenos Aries. The Pumas are treating this match very seriously, having recalled 15 of their players from other parts of the world. They are more than capable of giving the Wallabies a fright, even though all of the early money has been for Australia conceding 4½ points start. [Basketball | BASKETBALL] Three of the five favourites won the weekend round of NBL, but only two of those covered the handicap start. Oddly, our best result was one of those that did win and “cover”, Wollongong, who had a 7 point win over the Victoria Giants. The Giants had been the best backed team of the round, and after opening at $3.25, we accepted a bet of $4500 on them at the closing price of $2.70. Bets of $10,000 and $3500 at $2.25 were landed when Canberra continued their fine start to the season by thrashing West Sydney 117-91. The punter from NSW who put the $10,000 on Canberra didn’t have his winning for long as he placed $12,000 on Cairns at $1.50 to beat Melbourne on Sunday. A 43 point game from Andrew Gaze set up a 103-92 win for the Tigers, who are now into $18 to win the title with the news that Mark Bradtke is likely to return from Greece. Canberra have this week off as they head to the USA to play Michigan State, and will have “magic” Johnson in their side in that match. Last night’s (Wed) televised game between the Giants and Brisbane saw the Giants go in as a shocking result for us after we took in excess of $16,000 (in three bets) for them to beat a 4½ point handicap. The match went into overtime after Brisbane surrendered a 14 point lead, and the Giants went on to win by 6. Punters have been careful on Friday night match between West Sydney and the Tigers. We have West Sydney at $1.50, or -4 points, but nobody knows if Simon Dwight will be back from injury, or if Mark Bradtke will line up for Melbourne. Cairns are at home to Wollongong on Friday night, and punters have been keen on the Taipans in early betting. They opened at $2.35, which was taken by two Sydney clients with a total of $5400, and a Victorian has taken the 3½ points start with a wager of $6000. Townsville staggered over the line for their first win last week, but most are predicting that Perth will beat the Crocs easily on Friday. We posted Perth at $1.28, and although that hasn’t been taken, we have seen bets of $7500 and $5000 come for Perth conceding 7 points start. One thing we have noticed this NBL season is that since Centrebet decided to put the weekend matches up after Wednesday night (even though most teams don’t play Wednesday), it has become standard practice in the industry to do the same. Even more staggering is that after Centrebet open the prices on Thursday morning, most others, including one overseas operator, amazingly come up with similar lines! It gives our NBL odds compiler a great deal of confidence that so many concur with his assessment! The NBA season began yesterday, and title favourites, the LA Lakers ($2.50), were at home to San Antonio. The Lakers were without Shaquille O’Neal who had an operation to remove bone spurs, and they went in as $2.35 outsiders. The Lakers have such a big following that we found them very easy to sell at that quote, and needed San Antonia to win, and they duly obliged. As far as the title goes, this is the quietest start we have ever had. A bet of $1600 has been placed on the Lakers at $2.50, with the only other teams that have had any backing at all being Dallas ($12) and New Jersey ($15). [Golf | GOLF] The script is becoming all too familiar on the US Tour when Jonathon Byrd, a $141 shot, was “a first time” winner of last weeks Buick Challenge. Nobody had a bet on Byrd before the event started, and prior to the last round only $10 was placed on Byrd at $12. At that stage, David Toms was favourite at $3.50, with two separate bets of $1000 going on Tim Herron at $5. Tiger Woods is $2.50 to win this week’s Tour Championship in Atlanta. Tiger fans haven’t been too keen on that price, but there has been money for Phil Mickelson ($1500 each way) at $10, Sergio Garcia (backed to win $20,000 by a Victorian) and Vijay Singh, who has been backed to win just over $25,000 by a group of English punters. The Southern Farm Classic is devoid of the big names, but there is plenty at stake with players trying retain their card for next week’s tour. This is the most open event of the year so far, with Joel Edwards and Lee Janzen sharing favourtism at $23. We haven’t taken too much money on this event, but a few have been backed early in betting. Billy Andrade ($34), Rory Sabbatini ($34) Carlos Franco ($41) and Luke Donald ($51) have each been supported to take out around $15,000. Last year’s winner Cameron Beckman is $41, while second placed Chad Campbell is $51, while one player who does have a legitimate chance, Kirk Triplett (lost in a playoff in 2000) is at $31. Padraig Harrington is the $6 fav to win the Italian Open this week, and while the Irishman had a shocking last round in Madrid last week, he looks the one to beat. Steen Tinning, another $101 chance, won the Madrid Open, but this time we did find several loyal Danish punters who placed small bets on Tinning before the event started, and another who invested 5000 DKK ($AUD 1000) after the third round at $7.50. Most of them have come back to take the $34 in Italy this week, but many have also backed Anders Hansen ($34) as well. A Queensland client is on Harrington with a bet of $2200, but we are tipping Trevor Immelman ($13), who has been playing well recently. The Ladies World Matchplay Championship will be played in Chiba, Japan this week, and while some may think that will suit the Japanese ladies, only two progressed through the first round last year. Annika Sorenstam came from four down to defeat Se Ri Pak last year, and while deserved of favourtism at $2.25, Pak is in fabulous form having won the Nine Bridges Classic last week, her fifth victory for the year. Pak is $4.50 in our market, just ahead of Karri Webb at $7. [Racing | RACING] The fairytale finish to Sunline’s career didn’t come to fruition when she was a close up fourth in Saturday’s Cox Plate, and when there was no evident bias for leaders on the day of the race, every single runner came in for a share of support. Northerly eventually started favourite at $4 after $4.50 had been available early on Saturday. The largest bet taken was only $1000, but such is the popularity of the Western Australian Champ that more individual bets were placed on him than all other eight runners combined, so there were plenty of happy punters around when he won for the second year in a row. By Saturday, money had “dried up” for Sunline, although we did take a $6000 bet at $4.50. Outsider Assertive Lad was backed to win $125,000 by a Sydney client ($2000 each way at $51), and third placed Grandera attracted an $8000 bet at $9 from England. Now that Northerly has been ruled out of the Melbourne Cup, it looks certain that the Cup will be heading to Europe. The Geelong Cup win by Media Puzzle sent Aussie punters into a frenzy, taking the $8 and $7 we had, but that has slowed down since several overseas experts, including Frankie Dettori, claimed that $5.50 favourite Vinnie Roe is a much better horse. Another $1000 each way has gone on Pugin this week at $8, but two other imports, Hatha Anna and Jardines Lookout are both into $21, with all of that money coming from Australian’s looking for value. The local horses are completely “friendless” apart from three year old Platinum Scissors, now into $15 after Gai Waterhouse stated he would probably run. Once the final field and barrier draw are completed, several other betting options will also be available from Sunday onwards. [Motor Bikes | MOTOR BIKES] The season Moto Grand Prix finale takes place in Valencia this week, with the interest being on whether or not Valentino Rossi can win a record twelfth race for the season. The Italian is $1.80 to do so, with one bet of €750 coming from Italy, but there has also been interest in the next two in the betting, Alex Barros ($3) and Max Biaggi ($5). Being the last race of the season, the level of betting is well down on normal, which is understandable as nobody is certain of the motivation of most riders, but one thing’s for sure is that Rossi would be mighty keen to write his name in the record books. [Boxing | BOXING] Every time Anthony Mundine steps into the ring there is money for his opponent, and the circumstances are the same this weekend when he takes on Ricky Thornberry in the OBPF Super Middleweight title. Thornberry opened at $5, but under a barrage of support, including two bets of $1500 and three of $1000, he is now into $3.80. We did take a $5000 bet for Mundine a month ago at $1.18, but he has eased out to $1.22. Thornberry has some solid form behind him, having been the distance in two world title fights, the last against Svenn Ottke, but never looked a winning chance. Ottke of course knocked Mundine out, and there is a line of thought going around that Thornberry, a notorious slow starter, could win if it becomes a 12 round “slug fest”. We have taken a $4000 for “The Man” to win by KO at $2.10, and sprinkling of bets for Thornberry to win by KO at $7.50, so at this stage we wouldn’t mind if it went the distance. There hasn’t been too much noise coming from the Mundine camp this time which is most unusual, but this is probably his toughest Test, apart from his bout against Ottke, and maybe they are focusing more on the fight then “trash talking”. [Soccer | SOCCER] West Ham did it again for us last round when they were backed and beaten, this time 2-0 by Everton. West Ham opened at $2.20, and started at $2.10. After some big early bets, one of our many Asian clients joined in late with a $16,000 bet at $2.15. Everton touched $3.25, a price that was taken with a £3000 bet, but we were very happy to pay! It was a sensational set of results for bookmakers when only four favourites won, but most importantly Arsenal and Man United failed to win! Arsenal have had a poor fortnight by their standards, but their shock 2-1 loss to Blackburn wasn’t a surprise to everybody as we did take two bets of $1000 from Australian’s at $9. Those bets, and a few smaller ones, were also gladly paid by Centrebet as Arsenal were the first leg of nearly every multiple, and those that left Arsenal out “hit the wall” when Man United ($1.35) were held 1-1 by Aston Villa. Liverpool won again, landing several substantial wagers, and have now moved four points ahead at the top of the table. They have now joined Arsenal at the head of betting at $2.20, with Man United, another four points adrift, still well in the betting at $5.50. With some of the bigger names struggling to handle an arduous campaign, we would have expected that some punters would “drop off” until they regain form, but that hasn’t happened. A bet of 80,000 NOK ($AAUD 16,000) was one of the early ones placed on Man United at $1.40 to beat Sunderland, and we also saw two bets totaling €11,500 come for Arsenal at $1.80 to beat Fulham. Man United were beaten 3-0 by Maccabi Haifa on Tuesday night in a Champions League game, but not too much can be read into that as they fielded a below par side. The Norwegian season is all but over apart from the Cup matches, and while the matches were covered in the last round were mostly down on normal, a huge plunge was well wide of the mark when Champions Rosenborg defeated Brann 4-0. Brann opened at $7.25, but were backed to win over 500,000 NOK before they finally closed at $4.15. Rosenborg “eased” from $1.35 to $1.60, and while there was money for them, including a bet of €10,000 at $1.55, we were still hoping they would win. Valerenga are solid favourites at $2.40 to win the Norwegian Cup final on Saturday. Odd are $2.65, but there has been money for all three options. Brann’s Tommy Knarvik is the player carrying most bets to be the first goal scorer, and there have also been several bets on Brann to score a big win, either 4-0 ($41) or 5-0 ($67). The women’s Cup is also on Saturday, and Trondheim are hot favourites at $1.40 to beat Arna-Bjornar. In Denmark, five of six Superligaen won last week, a good round for punters! This week, there has been an early bet of 15,000 DKK ($AUD 3000) for Koje at $5.45 to beat Midtjylland, but in all other games, the favourites have been the sides most sought after. The largest early bet has been 40,000 DKK on FCK ($1.70) to beat Farum. FCK beat Viborg 3-0 last week, but haven’t had consistent winning form this season. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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