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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Brisbane, who had been favourites to win the AFL flag for 90% of the year, made it three in a row when 50 point winners over Collingwood on Saturday, but in contrast to last year, the Lions were our best result of the final two combatants. It was quite strange that following the suspension of Collingwood forward Anthony Rocca, the early flow of money for the Magpies went to a higher level. I don't know whether that was as a result of the injury toll at Brisbane, the possibility of bad weather, or sympathy money after Rocca got rubbed out. The Magpies firmed from an opening $1.90 into $1.75 at kick-off, with Brisbane out to $2.05. The bigger bets on Collingwood included $60,000 at $1.90, $25,000 at $1.85 and $14,800 at $1.80, but the Lions weren't completely friendless as three $5000 bets were placed on them when they first touched $2. Some of the bigger winners from premiership betting throughout the season were two Victorians, one with a bet of $20,000 for Brisbane at $5, the other with a $40,000 bet taken at $2.75 early on in the season. As for the story going around about somebody winning $2 million from a $500 bet placed three years ago on Brisbane winning three in a row, I think that is all it is, a 'story'. We certainly wouldn't entertain a bet like that, any others in the industry know nothing about it, and the supposed odds don’t make sense either. No matter which way you look at it, the absolute best that would have been available would have been 500/1, and probably even much shorter than that, so it seems that this is a rumour that has grown some 'legs' (and some zero's) over the past few days. The whole thing sounds like 'bar talk'. As for the exotic bet types on the Grand Final, practically all of those also went in our favour. Simon Black won the Norm Smith Medal, and although one of the first bets we took was $800 for Black at $11, he was a pretty good winner for us as the late money was for all the Collingwood players. Nathan Buckley started favourite at $5, with bets of $2000 and $1600 being placed on the Collingwood star, but with his side getting the thumping they did, his supporters would have known early in the second quarter that they would have to wait for next year. And on next year, betting is already up and running, and it is very similar to this time last year. Brisbane have to be favourites, and we have taken a few small bets for them at $3.25. One wonders how much psychological harm Collingwood would have taken from last weekend, and so far we have only taken one bet of $50 for them at $6.50, and not a single taker for Port Adelaide at $7. There are some serious problems down in South Australia, and although betting has only been up for a few days, historically, Port are always the side who attract most of the early bets, so it looks as though punters will be waiting to see how they line up next year. Essendon have been the best backed side so far, with nearly $2000 coming for the Bombers at $11, while Adelaide have also met with support at $13. The 'bolters' of the competition are the Bulldogs and Carlton at $101, and the two sides that we think will be the major threats to Brisbane in 2004 are St Kilda ($13) and Hawthorn ($15). AFL fans get their chance for a final 'fix' this season when we bet on the South Australian final on Sunday. With this game televised, it is always a popular betting medium, and Central Districts will go in favoured to win at $1.40, with West Adelaide the underdogs at $2.80. MOTOR BIKES This week sees the first of three successive Moto GP's in the Asian/Australian area, Japan this weekend, then Malaysia and finally in Australia. After a mid season form slump, Valentino Rossi has won the last three Grand Prix's. and has been installed as warm favourite at $1.50 ahead of Sete Gibernau at $7. There have been two early bets of €1000 for Max Biaggi to finish on the podium at $1.85, and also a $1500 wager for Troy Bayliss to finish amongst the placings at $3.75. If there was to be an upset, it might be provided by Makato Tamada. Motegi is Tamada's home track, and following on from a third placing in the last Grand Prix, he looks a real chance. We have Tamada at $15 to win, and $3.50 to finish on the podium. RUGBY LEAGUE Punters are of the opinion that the Penrith 'fairy tale' season of 2003 will have an unhappy ending when the Panthers line up against the Roosters in the season finale on Sunday night. Several times throughout the season we have made mention of the fact that punters have not been interested in backing the Panthers to win the title. They were $41 before the season started, blew out to $101 after a round two defeat at the hands of Melbourne. It is hard to fathom that a team that was beaten 42-16 in that round could turn it all around, but that is what they did, and then went on to win the minor premiership. The Panthers hovered around the $6 mark all throughout the final series, but last week was the first time that there was any sort of rally for them when they came up against the Warriors. Whilst we were tipping Penrith to win last week, we were swamped with late money for the Panthers, who came in from an opening $2.20 to start favourites at $1.85. The largest of the bets taken was $17,000 at $2.10, but there was some big money around for the Warriors as well, headed up by a bet of $25,000 from a Victorian punter. New Zealand was also a shocking result in our premiership book, so we weren't that unhappy that Penrith sent them out of the finals series. That was one of the few times this year that we had seen any substantial support for Penrith in a game, and in this weeks final, it has been a real battle to lay them early in the week. Historically, punters love to back the underdogs in NRL finals, but Penrith have eased from an opening $2.70 out to $3. We have taken a $6000 bet at that quote, but the way things are heading, they may even start at a longer quote. The Roosters on the other hand have been very easy to sell. The $1.45 attracted two bets totaling $17,000 from Queensland, and the handicap of -7½ was taken by two NSW punters, each armed with $5000. With the indications being that the money will continue to come, the handicap has been moved to 8 points, but there hasn't been any decent money taken on Penrith at that mark. We copped a battering on the Penrith game total last week (40½ points) when the total went over, but although the Panthers have been a free scoring team all season, punters think that with the final being played at night, then the score might be under the allocated number of 43½ points. Early bets have included $6000 at $1.95 (from New Zealand), as well as two bets of $2000, but if the weather is to be clear, we expect to see money for the 'over'. Out of all the exotic bets offered on the Grand Final, the most popular without a doubt is always the Churchill Medal for the best player on the field. Brad Fittler is a 'pin up' player with punters, and has been backed to take out just under $10,000 in early trading at $6. Fittler has been troubled by a shoulder injury for several weeks, but is a big occasion player, and as we said, is also extremely popular in the punting ranks. Craig Wing ($6.50) has been backed to win a similar amount, while Craig Fitzgibbon, who has a broken finger, has had a bet of $600 placed on him at $11. There hasn't been a lot of action for any of the Penrith players, where Craig Gower is the shortest way at $8 ahead of Preston Campbell at $14. Providing the game is competitive, betting will be available at half time on Sunday night. While it would be nice to think that Penrith can deliver the goods, it is hard to go past the Roosters, who have the finals experience on the board. FOOTBALL Three of Europe's top five soccer domestic leagues and its secondary international club competition were graveyards for Centrebet punters in the week that England's Football Association charged eight players - six from Arsenal and two from Manchester United - following another Old Trafford bust-up. Only five of the week's ten English Premier League favourites justified their position as market leaders and, with the exception of Sir Alex Ferguson's Red Devils ($1.55 to $1.50) who punters backed as if the result of their away match versus Leicester was a foregone conclusion, none of the short-priced winners made much of dent in our coffers. Painful results for Premier League punters were Middlesbrough's defeat of Southampton ($1.80 to $1.75), Charlton's Kevin Lisbie-inspired victory over Liverpool ($1.80) and Tottenham's draw against Manchester City ($1.80) in the London team's first game since Glenn Hoddle's departure. German Bundesliga and Spanish Primera División punters also experienced great heartache. More than half of the week's Bundesliga favourites fell short of expectations and, of those, punters invested particularly large sums on Mönchengladbach ($2.25 to $2.10), Schalke ($1.60 to $1.45) and Wolfsburg ($2.30) winning their respective home matches. Barcelona ($2.55 to $2.25), Espanyol ($2.05 to $1.90) and Real Madrid ($2.50 to $2.35) were just three of the Spanish sides to incur the wrath of punters betting on games in what most European football fans rate as the continent's highest quality domestic competition. As for the UEFA Cup first round, first leg fixtures, the B-team of Barcelona ($1.40 to $1.33), Benfica ($1.90 to $1.80) and Blackburn ($2.30 to $2.10) disappointed punters in a tournament on which we have found it difficult to register regular profits in recent seasons. We were long overdue a good UEFA Cup round! A Scandinavian punter struck one of the most ambitious bets in Centrebet's 11-year history when he wagered 400 Norwegian kroner at $2,501 that Åge Hareide's Rosenborg would finish as Norwegian Tippeligaen runners-up this season. He would have won one million kroner had Bodø/Glimt stopping the Trondheim-based club winning the Tippeligaen championship for the 12th year in a row. Unfortunately for him, Rosenborg wrapped up their dirty dozen of titles with a 5-4 defeat of Bodø/Glimt. Several other punters bet smaller sums on the same option. GOLF Last weeks prediction that the Valero Texas Open would be won by a player in his forties came to fruition, as Tommy Armour 111 ended thirteen years of frustration in winning his second PGA tour title. Armour set a Tour 72 hole scoring record with a 26 under par total 254 in winning by seven shots from fellow forty something's Loren Roberts and Bob Tway, and just to complete their domination forty-one year old Duffy Waldorf finished a further shot away in fourth place. Punters were off the mark, although the well supported K.J Choi finished in a tie for seventh, eleven shots off the place. Calls of improvements in technology making the game easier for the younger players are being replaced with calls of 'bring it on' by the older and more experienced players who are relishing their best ever season on tour. This week there are two events being played in the States with the Southern Farm Bureau Classic at Annandale and WGC's American Express Championship in Georgia. At Annandale defending champion is Luke Donald at $26 while favourite is Stewart Cink at $17. This event has not been the focus of punters with the cream of the worlds golfers playing across state however Tanaka ($29), Smith ($41) Damrom ($61) and Petterson ($81) have all been backed to win over $10,000 .Now back to Georgia where Tiger Woods makes a return to the tour after five weeks honing his skills, and as defending champion the importance of this event has not been lost on the player recognised as the best of the modern era. Woods has been well supported at $4.50 but best backed has been Ernie Els ($8) and Vijay Singh ($13) both to win more than $100,000. Also well supported has been K.J Choi ($51), enjoying recent good form, and Bob Tway ($101) and Rocco Mediate ($81) but Woods' greatest challenge is likely to come from Els, who showed last week with a one shot second behind Lee Westwood that he is hitting the ball sweetly. Singh also is playing solid golf tee to green but his long stick has been his undoing. This event unlike others in recent times is not likely to be one by one of the forty something’s, but as Tommy Armour showed in Texas, golf is a funny game. MISCELLANEOUS Finally, this is a very short Centrebet Capers this week as there is plenty happening in Alice Springs. Centrebet was this week sold by Jupiters to Sydney based ' Sportodds'. Attached is part of the official press release regarding the sale, and as the weeks unfold we will pass on any additional information on, but it would be fair to say that from a clients perspective the service that we pride ourselves on providing will continue, and that there will be some exciting initiatives also implemented in the very near future. Press Release:- Jupiters Limited has today entered into a contract for the sale of the business of Centrebet Pty Ltd to the SportOdds Group for $46.55 million. As outlined in the Scheme Booklet distributed to Jupiters’ shareholders earlier this month, Jupiters intends to distribute the net proceeds of the sale to its ordinary shareholders by way of a special fully franked dividend. The payment of the dividend is conditional on the Ordinary Share Scheme proceeding. Completion of the sale is expected to occur on 27 October 2003. Conditions of the sale include: • the issue of a Northern Territory Sports Betting licence to SportOdds; • there being no termination or suspension of Centrebet’s Northern Territory and UK Sports Betting licences; and • SportOdds satisfying its draw down conditions to its approved finance facility. About SportOdds SportOdds is Australia’s largest, privately owned sports betting company. Its principals, Con and Peter Kafataris, have between them over 60 years experience as successful on-course bookmakers. SportOdds has licences in Canberra, Western Australia and the United Kingdom, with its administration headquartered in Sydney. Together with its Australian operations, the SportOdds group currently employs 100 staff and has over 35,000 registered clients. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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