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Centrebet Capers RUGBY LEAGUE Penrith, the 'men from the mountains', defied the critics to leave Telstra Stadium with the Telstra Cup in their keeping on Sunday night. In what many have described as one of the all time great grand finals, Penrith defeated the Roosters 18-6 in a bruising encounter, and gave the bookies a big result at the same time. What started out early in the week as a quiet betting game turned into one of our biggest ever league matches from a turnover point of view. It was interesting to look back after the game was over at all the bets, 80% placed on Penrith, yet 80% of the money held was bet on the Roosters. As we have said before, that is commonplace in finals as the irregular bettors prefer to be on the underdog, with devout followers always sticking with the favourites. Two big bets were taken on Penrith, $30,000 with 8 points start ($1.90), and $8000 to win at $3, but we were in the fortunate position of being in pretty good shape to lay them for something as they were massive winners in our premiership book. All day Sunday however, the bulk of the bigger bets were for the Roosters. It seemed that the train of thought was that they would be better suited to the wet conditions, something that we didn't agree with. When it came down to a kicking game, we thought that the Panthers would be more adaptable, so we chased the Roosters out to $1.45. Several large bets were struck at that price, including $25,000 and $20,000, as well as five bets of $10,000 for the Roosters conceding 7½ points start. A bet of $15,000 was also taken for the Roosters to lead at half and full time (from Malaysia) at $1.85, but one Sydney punter struck with a $2500 wager for the Panthers to lead all the way at $4.50. Another Sydney client went perilously close to a big win when he placed $1000 on Roosters bench player Chris Flannery to be the first try scorer at $61. By the time Flannery came on the field, there still had been no score, and he looked a certainty to be the first try scorer when he barged through to attack the Penrith line, only to come up centimetres short. It was eventually left up to Penrith's Luke Rooney ($15) to be the first player to penetrate either defense, and while he was one of the favourites at that quote, he Rooney was easily the best result for us of those in the market with the largest bet taken only $40. The Churchill Medal betting saw some drastic fluctuations on Sunday, with most support coming for the 'gun' Roosters players, while Craig Gower and winner Luke Priddis were the best backed of the Panthers players. Priddis ($26) landed winning bets of $400 and $200 (three times), and a host of smaller bets, but the Roosters players dominated the top end of the market. Craig Wing had a $10,000 wager placed on him at $6.25, Brad Fittler a bet of $6000 at $6.50, while Luke Ricketson was sensationally backed from $26 into $11. The Kangaroos play New Zealand in a Test next week, then they are off to England, and with the Super League still having two weeks to go, we are not completely done with league just yet. RUGBY UNION It's common knowledge the 2003 World Cup kicks off this week as Australia take on the might of Argentina at Telstra Stadium in Sydney. Australia are favourites at $1.16 while the Pumas are given some hope at $5. Early money on this game has been for the Wallabies with one wager of $15,000 at $1.16, however if the $10,000 we took for the Pumas at the 14 1/2 points start at $1.90 from one of our English clients is any indication of the interest which will be generated overseas, then this will be one hell of a betting tournament. We also opened betting on other round one matches which sees New Zealand, Ireland and South Africa all prohibitive odds at $1.004 in their prospective matches against minnows Italy, Romania and Uruguay, but if you thought that was short then $1.002 England against rank outsiders Georgia is unbackable. For those spend thrifts who believe Georgia have some hope of causing the greatest boil over in Rugby history than the $51 in a two horse race should appeal. Other betting to heat up this week was Championship betting with one client from Australia placing $4,000 on the Wallabies at $5.50 to retain the William Webb Ellis trophy and along with a string of local loyal support it won’t be long before the Wallabies firm even further from their current quote of $5.25. What ever your position, this is sure to be one hell of a tournament and along with the many betting options we will be offering we guarantee your interest will be held. CRICKET Zimbabwe play their first ever test series in Australia beginning in Perth on Thursday, and the betting would suggest that the players can look for some alternatives to cricket for the latter part of the weekend! The WACA pitch is renowned for producing quick results, and with Heath Streak, the captain of Zimbabwe declaring that they 'would be happy with a ‘draw', the signs are there that they have already conceded that the Aussies will be too good. A small bonus for Zimbabwe is that Glen McGrath will be out, but the Australian pace attack is still lethal, and with the two Flowers out of the Zimbabwe side, they lack serious depth in the batting department. Australia were the shortest price we have ever had a side in a test match when they played Bangladesh, but with a draw ($7) unlikely on a WACA pitch, they will go around at a prohibitive quote for a side who haven't played for a while. A Melbourne client was first in with a bet of $30,000 for Australia at $1.14, and that was followed by another $20,000 at $1.12, so we are looking for Zimbabwe to be competitive for a few days, or a rather large thunderstorm to descend on Perth. Today (Wed), the first test between India and New Zealand starts in Ahmedabad. The crowds and conditions make it virtually impossible for travelling sides to win there, and that is borne out in the price for New Zealand. The Kiwi's are $8, and we have only seen $500 bets come in from the 'land of the long white cloud' for their side to win. On the other hand, a few of our Kiwi clients have backed India, including one with a $12,000 bet at $1.85. We always find the draw option easy to sell in matches on the Sub Continent, and that has again been the case with one of our Indian regulars placing $USD 10,000 on the draw at $2.40. This test will be reopened at the end of each days play, while the Australian v Zimbabwe match will be up again at the end of each session, at least while the match isn't too one sided. Domestically, the Pura Cup begins next week when Western Australia host South Australia. Betting is open to win the Pura Cup and the ING Cup. New South Wales are strongly favoured to win both, $2.75 for the Pura and $2.70 for the ING. As yet, we haven't seen any significant action, but things should start to happen as we lead into the first game next week. BASKETBALL The start to the new NBL season had to take a back seat to the NRL final and the upcoming Rugby World Cup, but we were pleasantly surprised by the level of interest in the nine games that were played over the past week. Although favourites won six of the nine games, we came out on the right side of the ledger when only four of those covered the handicaps. Last Wednesday night there were three matches to get the season underway, with Cairns' 118-114 point win over Townsville giving us a great start to the season. Bets of $6000 and $5000 were placed on Townsville conceding 5 points start, but just like last year, the Crocs got off to a poor start. It looks like Cairns are going to be a 'money' side this year as bets of $5000 and $4400 were placed on the Taipans conceding 5 points start against New Zealand on Friday night, but this time the story had a happy ending for punters when Cairns won a low scoring match 84-73. A similar set of circumstances arose with Brisbane’s two games in Melbourne. There was plenty of money for Brisbane against the Tigers on Friday night before they went down 97-85. One punter who placed $4000 on Brisbane with 2½ points start also placed $4000 on the game against Victoria on Saturday night, again with 2½ points start. Following Friday night’s loss to Melbourne, the handicap on the Victoria game blew out to 4½, but Brisbane turned the form around to win 106-96. Perth were backed as if unbeatable in the televised game on Saturday night. They were at home to the Sydney Kings, and after opening at $1.90, started the game solid favourites at $1.75. The two biggest bets came from NSW, $12,000 at $1.90 and $7500 at $1.80, so it was ironic that Sydney proved far superior, winning by 19 points. Whilst it is still very early days, that dominant performance by the Kings has seen them installed at $3 to make it back to back titles, ahead of Wollongong at $5. Tonight (Wed), there are another three games due to be played. Adelaide outscored New Zealand in three of the four quarters in the first game of the season last Wednesday, and while narrowly beaten, displayed enough form to warrant being favourites over Cairns. With import Dusty Rychart expected to play, we have assessed the 36er's at $1.36, or -6 points. Early money has been for Cairns who have won both matches, but we expect this one to go to the home side. It is also far too early to draw too many conclusions on sides, so for that reason we have priced up Perth at $1.35 (-6) over the Melbourne Tigers. Once again the money has been for the outsiders (2 x $2000 bets with the start), but a trip to Perth is never an easy assignment, and Reed Rawlings and Matt Burston would have derived great benefit from that first game for Perth. Added to that is that Ricky Grace played possibly his worst ever NBL game, so from our point of view we expect Perth to rack up a win, and easily. The televised game between Brisbane and West Sydney will see Derek Rucker (Bris) line up against his old team, and also the Brisbane import pairing of Brannen and Freeman will get an opportunity in front of an audience to show all why they are considered to be the best in the league. There is an air of expectancy about this side in 'the Sunshine State', and there has been no shortage of money to say that they will not only win tonight, but cover the 4½ point handicap. GOLF The WGC American Express Championship saw Tiger Woods return to form with a two shot victory over Vijay Singh, Tim Herron and Stuart Appleby. We said last week that Woods had four weeks away from the tour to hone in on his skills, and judging by the way he hit the ball he wasted very few moments. Woods was well supported by the rank and file punter however spare a thought for one of our Australian clients who backed Els and Singh to win over $100,000 only to see Singh fall short by two shots: two shots his putter could easily have found had it been on song. Other players well supported included Jim Furyk, K.J Choi and Rocco Mediate, all of whom performed solidly and should be followed up in this weeks Las Vegas Invitational, a 90 hole event played over three courses. Furyk is favourite at $9 over Darren Clarke at $14 and Stuart Appleby $21 however the player everyone wants is Sergio Garcia , backed to win more than $40,000 at $26 while Jonathan Kaye has his admirers, backed from $51 into $41. Appleby has form here finishing in a tie for second last year and as his second placing behind Woods indicates , he has hit form at the right time while Furyk was a back to back winner in 1998/99 and justifies his position as favourite. Another prediction only two weeks ago was that John Huston was ready to produce his best in the Valero Texas Open which he unfortunately did not, but that turned around last week when he captured the Southern Farm Bureau Classic from Brenden Pappas and Shigeki Maruyama. Huston was at the savoury odds of $41 and joined a long list of forty something to win this year. Huston was friendless in a disappointing betting event. On the European tour we head to the Netherlands for the Dutch Open which has attracted an even field with Miguel Angel Jimenez favourite at $13 from Brian Davis at $15 and the in form David Howell, Robert Karlsson and Mathias Gronberg all at $17. Early money has been for Howell, McGinley and Lafaeber in an event that offers an opportunity for one of the lesser lights on the tour to experience victory as Tobias Dier did last year in his maiden victory. ENTERTAINMENT The field has been narrowed down to six on Australian Idol, and we are beginning to see a steady stream of bets come through on this event. There is little doubt that Australian Idol has a much bigger following in the punting ranks than some of the other 'reality' shows we have done, and with the final few weeks of the show upon us, it is noticeable that the interest is increasing. We have a new favourite to take out Australian Idol. Shannon Noll was second pick for the past two weeks, but a Sydney punter placed $1000 on Shannon at $3 and another $1000 at $2.50 prior to last weekend’s show which meant that we had to elevate him to favourite at $2. Lots of bets had been placed on all contestants apart from Levi, but the polls from the weekend which saw another two leave the show caused a major shake-up to the market. Robert Mills, who had been favourite for the past four weeks, only just managed to scrape through to the next round, so the writing is on the wall that his tenure is not safe. Mills is now out to $5.50, but we have taken two bets of $200 at that price this week, so some think he will be around for at least a little longer. HORSE RACING The Caulfield Cup is only a little over a week away, and now that the final field is starting to take shape, punters are starting to try and secure the best odds before race day comes. Last Saturday, a Victorian punter placed $25,000 on Mummify to win the Caulfield Cup at $7.50 before the Lee Freedman trained galloper had no luck in the Underwood Stakes. He was held up for a run all the way down the Flemington straight, and that run can be completely forgotten. He is still favourite at $7.50, but a host of others have met with support over the past week. Kiwi invader Distinctly Secret ($8), a certainty beaten in last years Cup, has been backed to win just short of $20,000 this week, and the same applies to Makybe Diva, also an $8 chance, who was one of a few to make late ground last Saturday. Now that Damien Oliver has taken the ride on 'import' In Times Eye, we have elevated that horse to $10 fourth pick, and it would be no surprise to see him start favourite with Oliver on board. Lonhro ($2.30) has stifled Cox Plate betting, and if he scores as convincingly this Saturday as he has recently in Sydney, then it is quite possible that he will go around as an odds on favourite in the famous weight for age event in a fortnight. Things are cranking up on the Melbourne Cup as well, although the big question mark is whether or not last years favourite Vinnie Roe will make the trip. The horse is currently in quarantine following an unplaced run in the Arc de Triomphe last Sunday in France, with a trip to Melbourne not likely to be confirmed for another week. We have Vinnie Roe currently equal second pick at $11, but haven't seen any money for him, a stark contrast to this time last year. Ruling favourite is the Godolphin trained Mamool, now into $6 from $9 last week, but the two best backed horses this week have been Distinctly Secret and Makybe Diva (both $12). FORMULA ONE The most exciting season in memory comes to an end this Sunday at Suzuka in Japan. Michael Schumacher needs just one point to be sure of winning a record sixth drivers title, and one Aussie punter has a rather large vested interest in how Schumacher performs. Two weeks ago, the punter in question took a seven leg multi, and the first five have already won. Schumacher is the second last leg, with the final leg being Real Madrid to win the Champions League title. His outlay was $6500 at odds of just under $40, so assuming Schumacher wraps up the title, then he will have Real Madrid (currently $4 favourites) riding for a result of just in excess of $250,000! Kimi Raikkonen is the only driver who can deny Schumacher of the title, but Raikkonen must win, and the German must finish out of the top 8. Also up for grabs is the constructors title, where Ferrari hold a slender 3 point lead over the Williams team. This will ensure that Schumacher won’t be able to just cruise around during the race, staying clear of trouble just so that he can get the necessary point to win the drivers title. The bad news for the Williams team is that Schumacher has an affinity with the Suzuka circuit, having won the last three GP's here, and also recording two previous wins. He has also been on pole for the last five seasons, so when you weigh all that info up, he has to be favourite! That is exactly how we have rated it, with Schumacher at $2.85, but surprisingly there are no takers. The $3 for Juan Pablo Montoya has proven popular, as has the $6 for Ralf Schumacher, but Raikkonen is the one that most want to be on. The opening $9, and then $8, was taken, and the 'flying Finn' has been backed to take out close to $30,000. There have also been two bets of €2000 for him to finish on the podium at $2.20, while Fernando Alonso has been backed to win $10,000 to finish amongst the placegetters at $5 as well. With Schumacher’s impeccable record in Japan, some have helped themselves to the $2.25 for him to qualify quickest, including a bet of €2000 from Austria, but with both Williams cars, and Raikkonen, eager to put themselves in contention with a good grid position, the $2.25 seems a little under the odds. FOOTBALL A Centrebet punter from Norway won one million NOK ($AUD 200,000) and went extraordinarily close to pocketing two more seven-figure cheques in one of the most remarkable football betting weeks since we opened for business more than a decade ago. The Champions League and English Football League expert forecast victories for Deportivo ($1.45), Huddersfield ($1.62), Internazionale ($1.28), Juventus ($1.85), Monaco ($1.57), Oldham ($1.80), Port Vale ($1.70), Sheffield United ($1.80) and Sunderland ($1.85) to score one of the biggest wins in Centrebet's history with one of his two nine-leg accumulators. Never can winning a million been so bittersweet, though. He swapped Juventus for Arsenal ($1.90) in his other speculative midweek wager and was left counting the cost of his decision to support the Gunners, for whom Robert Pires squandered a wonderful opportunity to put in the lead Arsene Wenger's side midway through the second half of their Group B match versus Lokomotiv Moskva. Just a few days earlier he included Arsenal ($1.55) in a 12-leg multi bet that also featured Anderlecht ($1.35), Bayern ($1.67), Chelsea ($1.35), Club Brugge ($1.22), Cottbus ($1.65), Galatasaray ($1.60), Heerenveen ($1.75), Hull ($1.45), Monaco ($1.35), PSV ($1.22) and West Bromwich ($1.55). Eleven of the clubs collected maximum points from their domestic league games, with PSV letting down the ambitious punter. The Eindhoven-based, Philips-backed club suffered defeat at the hands, or should that be feet, of AZ. For the second successive week, Europe's top domestic and international football competitions were graveyards for the majority of Centrebet punters. Only half of the week's Champions League favourites justified their market positions and, of those, Real Madrid ($2) were the only side on whom our punters invested significant sums. Arsenal ($1.90), Bayern ($2.15) and Galatasaray ($2.15) disappointed their cheer squads and, 24 hours later, Chelsea ($1.30), Manchester United ($1.95) and Milan ($2.45) frustrated their followers. Alex Ferguson's Red Devils were well backed to win their Group E fixture against Stuttgart, which was somewhat surprising given the excellent early season form of Felix Magath's team. Timo Hildebrand is German soccer's top story at the moment and last week we traded several exotic options on Stuttgart's unbeatable goalkeeper. Punters took 1.50 that Hildebrand broke Bayern captain Oliver Kahn's Bundesliga record for scoreless minutes and that he did with his ninth clean sheet in a row. The uncapped custodian has played 825 Bundesliga minutes since conceding a goal. Next week we will look back at the final round of matches in the Euro 2004 group phase. One of the most interesting games is the Group Two encounter between Bosnia-Herzegovina and Denmark, not least because of the impact that the result will have on Norway's hopes of reaching next month's play-off round. Either a draw or win in Sarajevo will stitch up the section for Morten Olsen's side and open the door for Norway to qualify for the tournament's repechage should Nils Johan Semb's team defeat Luxembourg in Oslo. It promises to be an exciting weekend with top spot in six of the ten groups up for grabs. Other eye-catching fixtures include Germany versus Iceland, Switzerland against Ireland and Turkey's clash with England. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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