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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
RUGBY LEAGUE The drama's that Australian coach Chris Anderson has been having with Cronulla has kept rugby league in the news since the Grand Final, and even though this weekend’s league test against New Zealand has been completely overshadowed by the Rugby World Cup, the league test will be on Saturday afternoon before the rugby gets under way, and that is good timing. Injuries to several key Kangaroos players hasn't made that much difference as it is still a formidable line-up on paper, but the key to the game is that it is to be played at North Harbour in New Zealand, so that must give the home side some hope. Let's hope so, as we don’t really want to see a repeat of the 48-6 flogging that the Aussies handed to the Kiwi's early in the year. Some think that New Zealand can turn that result around however, as when New Zealand opened at $2.80, the first $2500 in bets was all for a Kiwi win, as well as $4400 in two bets for them with 7½ points start. We thought that Australia would be easy to lay conceding the start, but as yet that hasn't been the case. The English Super League final will be on in the early hours of Sunday morning Australian time, and Bradford go in as warm $1.50 favourites over Wigan. The last time this duo met was back in round 24, and on that occasion Wigan won 26-12 at home, but they have had a tougher path to the final, including a hard fought 23-22 victory over Leeds last week. The week prior, Bradford looked impressive in a 30-14 point win over Leeds, and while it can be dangerous to analyse the form that way, it does point towards a Bradford win. We were pretty eager to get something out Wigan when the betting opened at $2.50, but even though that was easily the best price available, less than $100 has been put on them, so it looks likely that Wigan will get out to a better quote. CRICKET Matthew Hayden nearly made enough runs by himself to beat Zimbabwe in the first test in Perth, and barring for a few rain interruptions late on the fourth day, and early on the fifth, those who took the short odds were always assured of a win. Hayden's record breaking 380 runs catapulted cricket to the front page of the newspapers, and while it is pretty early for people to be interested in cricket, we have noticed an increase in betting activity on the second test, mainly on the exotic options. We have already taken two bets of $1000 for Hayden to be the top Aussie hi-bat at $3.25, but Sydney isn't really conducive to the type of scores we saw in Perth. The biggest bet landed on the Perth test was $50,000 at $1.10 from India, but as yet we haven't heard from that punter on this weeks test. We have taken one bet of $20,000 at $1.08 from a Sydney client, and a few small bets for the draw at $7, and even three bets of $100 for a miracle win by Zimbabwe at $31, so there is definitely interest around. Zimbabwe have already shown that they will miss the Flower brothers from the batting line-up, and ironically Andy Flower smashed over 200 runs in grade competition in South Australia over the weekend, 200 runs that his countrymen could have done with. The second test between India and New Zealand begins in Mohali on Thursday, and the betting is very similar to the first test which ended in an entertaining draw. India are the fav's at $2, with early bets of $10,000 and $6500 (both from New Zealand) coming, but a few of our Indian regulars have been circling around, keen to back the draw at anything better than $2.30. Locally, the Australian Pura Cup season begins on Sunday when Western Australia host South Australia. The WA side are nearly unbeatable at home on the quick WACA pitch, and although we installed them as red hot $1.40 chances, the money has been for SA at $2.80. Betting to win the Cup has been quiet, but with so much international cricket on these days, punters don’t like to bet on these 'futures' any more as they are unsure of who will be aided by the international fixture. A quick look through suggests that it might be QLD, who were penalised last year with the World Cup being on, so we have elevated the Bulls to equal favourites at $3 with NSW. BASKETBALL The arrival of one import and the departure of another were significant happenings on the NBL scene last week. The Melbourne Tigers strengthened their roster and Championship chances with the signing of Canadian Dave Thomas, who is proven in the league, and seems a perfect fit for Melbourne. Over in the west, the winless Wildcats achieved a season first by sending Reed Rawlings on his way. After what seemed a promising debut against Sydney, he was given just 15 minutes against Melbourne before Mike Ellis decided he wasn't what was required. It has been a tough initiation for Ellis with the Wildcats, having already surpassed their regular season home court losses total of last season, and after only two weeks of this season! On court, the Hunter Pirates continue to find the going tough and now have to compete without the services of captain Brendan Mann who is out indefinitely with a fractured bone in his foot. New Zealand, who looked so good in the first half of their first game, have also fallen by the wayside, and trailed by as much as 50 points against Wollongong, before scoring the last 20 points of the game to go down by 30. Tonight's (Wed) Fox Sports game will see Adelaide travel to Townsville with both teams seeking their first win of the season. Townsville don't appear to be in bad for, only going down by 7 points to West Sydney last week, and with the prolific scoring Jeremy Veal leading the way, we expect them to brush aside the under-manned 36er's. That is reflected in the betting, with Townsville at $1.20, or -8 points. The handicap has been taken with two wagers of $2000 coming from NSW, but there has been a sprinkling of money for Adelaide to get under that mark. In the other game, Melbourne, with the addition of Dave Thomas, look to improve on their 3-0 start to the season when they travel to West Sydney. We can't fault the form of either side at this early stage of the season, but even though they are the outsiders at $2.30, we think that the added depth will see the Tigers prevail. Even though this game won’t be televised 'live', it has attracted a stack of business, including a $2000 bet for the Tigers to win, as well as bets of $4000 and $2000 for West Sydney conceding 3 points start. After opening at $15 in title betting, the Tigers are now a solid third choice at $6, with the Sydney Kings still favourites at 43 to make it back to back wins. HORSE RACING We haven't seen the avalanche of overseas money on horses to win either of our two big Cups this year, but that doesn't mean that the international raiders won’t be taking home either of our prized possessions! The Dermott Weld trained In Times Eye has been elevated to the second line of betting to win the Caulfield Cup this Saturday following reports of a sensational track gallop on Monday. The horse is allegedly a poor track worker, but that gallop, along with the fact that he will be ridden by Damien Oliver, has sparked punters into action. We didn't lay the horse at all at the much bigger odds, so he has obviously has snuck under the guard of our English punters, but he is very easy to lay now at $6.50. Mummify remains favourite wit Centrebet even though he is drifting out elsewhere. We took that $25,000 bet for the Lee Freedman trained galloper two weeks ago at $7.50, and then another $5000 arrived this Monday at $5.50. Mummify is still at that quote, and looks mighty hard to beat after running second to Lonhro last Saturday. The Gai Waterhouse trained Grand Armee is another who has come in for heavy support this week, backed to $30,000 at $13 by a Sydney punter, and public money has forced us to cut that price into $10. Distinctly Secret ran home nicely behind Lonhro, and plenty of Kiwi punters have helped themselves to the $9 for Distinctly Secret to atone for an unlucky defeat in the Cup last year. As an 'add on' to the normal win and place option on the Caulfield Cup, we will also offer a few 'head to head' match-ups, and these will be available on Saturday morning. Lonhro continues to firm up for the Cox Plate, now into $1.65, and on current form, it is hard to go past him. Mamool still heads the Melbourne Cup market at $7, but there hasn't been any real interest in the Godolphin trained stayer since the bigger odds were taken around the country three weeks ago. ENTERTAINMENT Last week we made mention that Australian Idol had held more interest with our punters than any previous 'reality' show, and now that the field has been cut to five, and there doesn't appear to be much between those five, the interest has gone up another notch. Cosima is the new favourite at $2.50 after opening at $3 on Tuesday. Australian Idol is no longer an event about talent, it is a popularity contest, and the voting trends each week only make the whole thing more perplexing. We have had four different favourites over the past four weeks, and to prove how hard it is arriving at the odds, Shannon Noll, who was backed into odds on two weeks ago, is now the $5.50 outsider. Whilst we always try and keep a tight reign on the betting on these 'novelty' events, there have been several one and two hundred dollar bets for all five singers this week, and Cosima drew bets of $800 and $500 when she was $3. Guy is now into second elect at $4, and we see him as the likely winner. MOTOR BIKES Even though Valentino Rossi has again dominated the MotoGP season, this weeks race at Phillip Island, the second last of the season, has taken on a new twist following rumours that Rossi will be parting company with Honda. The popular Italian secured the riders championship in Sepang last week, but now that it looks certain that he will go to either Yamaha or Ducati (or maybe even Ferrari in the F1?), punters have been a little cautious in taking the $1.45 we are offering for this week’s race. Sate Gibernau and Max Biaggi have had several small bets placed on them at $8 to win the Aussie Grand Prix, with Biaggi again solidly backed to grab a podium finish at $1.85, including one bet of €4000 from Italy. All eyes will be on local hero Troy Bayliss. Last season in the Superbike series he won both races at Phillip Island, and after being on the podium three times this season, he will fancy his chances at his 'home' Grand Prix. So do we, and have Bayliss at $13, and $2.75 to finish on the podium. We will also be betting on the 125's and 250's this week. In the 125's, Dani Pedrosa has already clinched the title and will be favourite to win, while there will be an interesting tussle in the 250's as Manual Poggiali tries to defend a 25 point lead in the championship. Poggiali and Toni Elias will dominate the betting, but Elias is the 'form' rider having won three of the last four races. GOLF Stuart Appleby proved that form really does hold up in golf when he won the Las Vegas International on the first play-off hole from Scott McCarron. We said last week that Appleby would prove hard to beat after finishing second in this event last year behind Phil Mickelson and at his previous two PGA events, the American Express Championship behind Tiger Woods and the Lumbar Classic of Pennsylvania behind J.L.Lewis, however he was neglected in the betting even at the attractive price of $21. McCarron closed with a six under par 66 to give the New Zealand punter who placed $1500 at $8 with one round to go a real opportunity. However Appleby snuffed out McCarron's run with a 16ft birdie putt on the first play-off hole to win his first tournament on the PGA tour since 1999. Other players well supported such as Kelly, Sabbatini, Furyk and Herron were always thereabouts without really threatening. This week Jim Furyk and Davis Love have an opportunity to gain some ground on Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh in the PGA tour money race as they contest the Chrysler Classic of Greensborough, an event Love won back in 1992. Rocco Mediate is the defending champion here however back troubles in recent times will make the task of defending his title all the more difficult. Furyk and Love share the top of the betting at $10 from David Toms at $15 and Appleby at $17 in what has been a quiet betting affair. Not so at the Wentworth Club in Surrey, England, as eleven players strive to wrest the crown from Ernie Els at the Cisco World Matchplay Championship. Our first wager was $10,000 on Els at $2.75 followed by another $4,000 at $2.50 while once again Vijay Singh has been well supported to beat the 'big easy' at a form of the game they both excel at, stroke match play. Other players with admirers include Mike Weir, on the other half of the draw, at $5 and Thomas Bjorn at $11. This form of golf can often provide upsets so our long range tip is Fredrik Jacobson at $21, in the right half of the draw, the right part of the world and in the right form. There is another European event this week, the inaugural Tuespana Mallorca Classic in Spain, which features recent winners Martin Lafaeber and Lee Westwood along with in form players Miguel Angel Jimenez and Robert Karlsson, all at the top of the betting. As an inaugural event it is difficult to gauge a form line on the course so punters have banked on some real roughies to perform here, with Gary Murphy, Gary Emerson and Richard McEvoy all backed to win $20,000 by one of our Australian clients. All in all it should be an interesting scramble for Volvo Order of Merit points in an event where everyone is on level footing. RUGBY UNION The World Cup has finally arrived amidst expectations from bookmakers and punters alike. We have said in recent weeks that betting to win the World Cup had become a frenzied betting war between New Zealand and England with both being backed to the exclusion of all other competitors, and that did not change prior to the kick off of the first game our last wager on New Zealand being $100,000 at $2.30 to lift the William Webb Ellis trophy. Then came the Wallabies clinical, if not impressive, defeat of the dangerous Pumas and so did some sizeable wagers at $5, one bet of $10,000 from a local client. Things didn't stop there however, Frances' convincing win over Fiji saw money for them at $11 , and although New Zealand were dominant in their victory over Italy an equally convincing win by England over Georgia and subsequent injuries to key All Blacks, Umaga and Rokocoko, has seen New Zealand’s price drift from $2.25 out to $2.35. Money hasn't stopped at championship betting either. Centrebet was able to hold over $250,000 on the opening Australia v Argentina game which was expected, as this was one of the more interesting group phase matches and followed the Opening Ceremony, but what was not expected was the keen betting on the England v Georgia game. Early money came for England from the UK with several wagers of $10,000 at $1.90 for them to cover the opening line of 80½ points. So intense was the support that by game day the line had moved to 85½ points. Then came the rain in Perth which suspended play in the Australia v Zimbabwe cricket test but generated enormous support for Georgia at +85½ points start. This handicap settled at 83½ points with turnover exceeding that of Australia and Argentina. It must be said that the England botched try which would have placed the margin in the gap would have put Centrebet well on the road to World Cup success, however if early betting is any indication then this will be one hell of a World Cup. FOOTBALL A full round of fixtures return in Europe this week after last weekend’s Euro 2004 qualifiers, and punters have some leeway to make up after both Denmark and England were held to a draw in those games. The upcoming round of English football features several derbies and grudge matches, none bigger than Leeds v Man United. This is the biggest game of the season at Elland Road, and apart from the fact that Leeds would dearly love to get the three points over their arch rivals, boss Peter Reid is under enormous pressure to keep his job, so he needs a forward showing. Most of the early action has been for Man United, including a €4000 bet from Finland at $1.65, but they certainly haven't been backed to the extent that they have been on recent rounds. A few of our English punters who are careful where they place their money have taken the $3.50 for a draw, and there has also been an early bet of £1000 for Leeds at $4.75. Arsenal host Chelsea in a match that will re-shape title betting. Chelsea were held to a nil all draw by Birmingham mid week, and have eased marginally to $2.75 behind Man United ($2.40) in title betting, with Arsenal making up the rest of the market at $3. This game is the quietest of the round, probably due to it being just too tough to call. Early money from Asia has been for Man City and Liverpool. Man City host neighbours Bolton, with the first bet of $ USD 10,000 arriving for Man City ($1.80) as soon as betting opened on Monday . That has continued, including $8000 and $5000 at $1.75, and now we find punters are still keen to take the $1.72. Liverpool are away to Portsmouth, and have already been backed from $2.20 into $2, and like Man City, look like they might even get into a shorter quote. Fist in was a Malaysian client with $ USD 4000, and the two bigger bets of $20,000 arrived at the same time from Singapore and Malaysia at $2.10. Once again, one thing that has given us a little bit of confidence that Liverpool can be beaten is that the same frugal English clients have taken the $3.40 for the draw. Blackburn are another firmer in betting in the last game of the round against Charlton. 'Late' favourites invariably shorten anyway, but the opening $2 was taken by an Austrian, as well as an Australian, who between them invested a shade under $25,000, and now the public have joined in, taking the $1.90. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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