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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
RUGBY LEAGUE For the first time in 44 years, it is feasible that the Kangaroos might be beaten by Great Britain in their upcoming series, and judging by their performance against New Zealand last Saturday, the Australians need to make some rapid-fire improvement to avoid that humiliation. The Kangaroos got off to a good start against the Kiwi's, but it all fell apart under some bruising encounters in the forwards. It is hard to know whether or not the Aussies had one eye on the upcoming tour of England or not, but on face value it looked pretty simple, they weren't good enough. We said last week that with so much sport on around Australia, that this league test hadn't really been that well received from a betting perspective, however on the day of the game things improved, and the 14 point win by the Kiwi's was a terrific result. Some of the larger bets recorded were $12,000 for an Aussie win at $1.40, as well as bets of $10,000 and $8000 for Australia conceding 7½ points start. Having said that, there had been continued support for New Zealand, both to win and with the start, and a bet of $8000 was taken for them when the handicap reached 8 points ($1.90). The Australians play their opening match in France on Friday before the side is selected for next weeks test. Betting on Australia v England A will be available on Tuesday, along with the series betting. As expected, Bradford won the Super League final 25-12 over Wigan on Saturday night, but it was only in the latter part of the second half that the Bulls managed to shake off Wigan. In fat, Wigan led 6-4 at half time, but it was obvious early in the second half that the first half had taken it's toll, and that they would struggle to hold out the Bradford attack. Mainly because of the Rugby World Cup, we didn't see the type of betting turnover on this final that we have in years gone by (our Aussie punters have to sleep some time!), but what we did take on the game was mostly for Wigan, including bets of $8000 and $5500, both from England, for the Warriors with 6.5 points start. CRICKET The three tests we covered last week all faced different scenarios at different stages of each match, even the Australia v Zimbabwe test, and with some of Australia's main bowling contingent down for the count, the tour of India, and the 'summer of cricket' might not have the predictability of past seasons. With rain floating around the Sydney region, we took two bets of $2000 for a draw at $7 in the Sydney test before the game started, a few small bets for Zimbabwe at $31, and bets of $10,000 and and $5000 for an Australian win at $1.10. Injuries to Brett Lee, some resilience by Zimbabwe, and Sydney's weather made the $1.10 very unattractive with two days to go, so much so that Australia had blown out to an unwanted $1.20, with money again coming for the draw ($8), and even a $3000 wager for Zimbabwe at $11. Simon Katich with the ball, and then Matthew Hayden with the bat, quickly disposed of any possibility of a loss, but the game did expose some serious holes in our bowling ranks. New Zealand and India played out an exciting draw, and with Australia heading over that way for the one day series, it appears as though we may have an even series on our hands. Today (Thurs), India and New Zealand are pitched together in the first match, and while the home side are warm favourites at $1.58, there has been a concerted push for New Zealand from our Kiwi punters at $2.35. It seems as though our bigger Indian punters see this as a danger game as only one of them has had a wager, that being $ USD 10,000 for India at $1.60. What will be interesting is to see how our Indian punters treat Sunday’s day/nighter between India and Australia. The Indians love backing Australia, and why not, as they consistently win, but there record on the sub-continent isn't good, and with a depleted bowling line-up, they look risky. RACING Punters got it right when favourite Mummify won the Caulfield Cup, defeating Grey Song and the heavily backed Distinctly Secret, last Saturday. The only other horse in contention was international raider In Times Eye, which was a drifter on the day of the race from $5.50 out to $9 after attracting massive support in the days prior. A Sydney client placed $9000 on In Times Eye on Tuesday at $7.50 before an English client backed the horse to win a similar amount with a wager of $7000 each way at $7 on Thursday, but unfortunately for those punters, the horse bowed a tendon, and will be out of action for at least 12 months. The victory by Mummify was well received by one Victorian punter who had three bites at backing Mummify with us, netting a profit of just over $200,000 from an outlay of $30,000. As yet, we haven't heard from him to see if he wants to back up again on Mummify in the Melbourne Cup at the $6.50, but there isn't any reason at all why Mummify can't go on and repeat the dose again. Saturday's Cox Plate looks to be the 'Lonhro benefit', but Melbourne's fickle weather has seen money come for Clangalang, a proven wet-tracker and winner of the AJC Derby early in the year on a slow track. The $6 was taken early on Wednesday with a wager of $2500, and there has been a steady stream of bets coming in at $5, and is now a solid second choice behind Lonhro. No doubt all would love to see Lonhro win to complete the fairytale ending that has made the news over the past week, and with the support for Clangalang, Lonhro has eased out to $1.55 even though a bet of $10,000 was taken on Tuesday at $1.50. One brave punter has outlayed $2000 on Lonhro to finish in the top three at $1.07, a big gamble considering that a lot of horses have difficulty handling Moonee Valley. It is normally a matter of they either handle it, and win, or they don't, and they run down the track. Lonhro was unplaced in last years Cox Plate, but is a superior horse this time in, and you can bet trainer John Hawkes knows what is required to win around the tricky Valley track. GOLF Shigeki Maruyama became the fourth player on the PGA tour to have won an event in each of the last three years and in doing so joined the elite company of Tiger Woods, Jim Furyk and Justin Leonard. Maruyama showed a return to form at his previous start, the Southern Farm Bureau Classic, finishing third behind John Huston with an eighteen under par score of 270, and that form continued into the Chrysler Classic where he finished twenty-two under par and one shot off the tournament record held by Jesper Parnevik. Nevertheless punters were loath to follow Maruyama who has had a tough season with injuries and missing eight cuts, the $41 holding no appeal in an event featuring the likes of Furyk and Love. As mentioned last week this was a quiet betting affair so followers of the top players left little in the Centrebet bag and have a real opportunity this week in the Funai Classic at the Walt Disney Resort. Tiger Woods makes a return to the tour having not competed since his disappointing thirty-ninth at the PGA Championship, however in the meantime he has competed in two WGC events and a European tour event, culminating in a victory at the WGC American Express Championship. For those who were of the opinion Tiger was in a form slump then you should consider that he has two victories, a second and two fourth placings at his last seven starts, a form slump any elite player would proud to have. For this reason Woods has been installed a $3.50 fav ahead of a much travelled Vijay Singh at $11 and Furyk and Love both at $19. Woods once again has his admirers but it has been K.J.Coi, $1500 each way at $21 and Shigeki Maruyama, $600 each way at $41 who has attracted the attention of the punting public, ironically what would appear as a week late. Defending champion is Bob Burns at $151 but completely out of form, so on a course which is long and open, go for the big hitters, Woods being successful in 1996/99 while Love was runner up in 1998/2001. On the European tour, punters, and Ernie Els gave Centrebet a toweling up, as Els defended his Cisco World Matchplay Championship at the Wentworth Club. After escaping with a scare from countryman Tim Clark in his first match the maestro of Wentworth was too accomplished for Vijay Singh in his Semi and Thomas Bjorn in the Final landing wagers of $10,000 at $2.75 and $4000 at $2.50 amongst a host of others. Also on the European tour Miguel Angel Jimenez continued his fine form with a come from behind victory in a rain shortened, 54 hole, inaugural Tuespana Mallorca Classic in Spain. Jimenez finished with a five under par 65 to win by a stroke from countryman Jose Maria Olazabal and claim his first victory of a very consistent year. His final round quote of $41 being very appealing to his followers. This week on the European tour we remain is Spain for the Telefonica Open de Madrid, with defending champion Steen Tinning, retiring because of injury after this season, an $81 chance. This event will prove difficult for a local to win as it has attracted a world class field including Padraig Harrington, Paul Casey and Adam Scott, but it is Englishmen Brian Davis, ($800 each way at $26), David Howell, ($300 each way at $51) and Kenneth Ferrie, ($200 each way at $101) who have attracted the most interest. As mentioned last week the scramble for Volvo Order of Merit points has reached a critical stage for players on the fringe of the top 50 so expect further fireworks this week. ENTERTAINMENT Australian Idol had already been receiving plenty of publicity anyway, but there has been a surge of interest since last Sunday's show where judges Mark Holden and Ian Dickson gave Paulini a 'serve' about her weight. It is rumoured that there were nearly a million calls to the poll with the bulk of them for Paulini, so maybe what started out as a negative ended up being a huge positive for her. Anyway, Robert Miles is now out of the competition, and we have a new favourite, the fourth in the past six weeks. We installed Guy at $2.50 following Monday nights vote, but most of the early betting Tuesday was all for him, so we have cut the price to $2, and continue to see bets coming. Cosima, who hovered around the $2.75 mark last week, is again popular at $3, but given that she was the second lowest poller last week, there is a strong chance she may go this week. Paulini is next in line at $4, and we continue to see the bulk of this weeks bets placed on her, while Shannon Noll is the rank outsider at $6. To prove how volatile this show is, only three weeks ago, Shannon was $2 favourite, and punters were knocking each other over to take it. He is still there, and as we have pointed out, males have a decided advantage on events where a 'phone in' is required to select the winner. Maybe the $6 is way over the odds, but for the moment, not many agree. BASKETBALL The learning curve for the New Zealand Breakers continues as they approach their first road trip with back to back games. First up on Friday, the Breakers take on Adelaide who they met and beat in their inaugural match in the NBL. On that occasion, New Zealand managed to hold on for a 111-110 victory, despite 'losing' the last three quarters. Their task looks much harder this time, away from home, and without Ben Melmeth, and that is reflected in the betting. Adelaide are $1.23, or -7½ points, which may prove a luxury as the Breakers have struggled away from home. It doesn't get any easier for them on Saturday night when they come back to Melbourne to play Victoria. We have already seen two $2000 bets come for the Titans to cover a 10½ point handicap, and the Titans get a chance to take on a travel weary side, so should give that handicap a decent nudge. How can a team that is 0-3 open as 12 point favourites on the road? The answer is simple, they are playing the Hunter Pirates! Perth are the team in question, but while we have assessed them as raging $1.10 favourites, nobody has been brave enough to take the short odds just yet. On the other hand, the Pirates are also friendless in the betting, and with Coach Palmer in the USA for personal reasons, it isn't likely that we are going to find too many who want to be on them. There are however a couple of decent games on the weekend, the first of those being the Tigers v Wollongong on Friday night. Betting opened with both sides at $1.90, and while most of the early bets were for Melbourne, we can locate a few reasons why they can be beaten. Wollongong are 0-3, and while two of those wins were against lowly Hunter and NZ, their win over Cairns was most impressive. The Tigers will also be without D-Mac, and have Andrew Gaze recovering from a neck injury sustained last Sunday. On Sunday, a lot of questions will be answered when Wollongong host Sydney. Wollongong's major problem here will be that they have less recovery time from Friday night’s game as opposed to the Kings who played on Wednesday. That is a concern, but at home, and with a lot more scoring options than Sydney, we have installed the Hawks as $1.60 favourites, and while we thought that the $2.30 for a Kings win might have been appealing to some, we have struggled to lay them at that price. A $2000 wager was placed on Wollongong at $4.75 to win the title this week, and a win over the Kings would see the gap between these two close significantly. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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