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Centrebet Capers
RUGBY LEAGUE While the NRL grand final was full of errors due to the greasy conditions, it lacked nothing in intensity, and the result could have gone either way right up until the final few seconds. The Bulldogs remained favourites to win the game right up until kick-off, but the late money was for the Roosters, who firmed from $2.35 into $2.25. A couple of the bigger bets taken on Sunday for the Roosters included $20,000 at $2.35, the same bet at $2.30, and three bets of $10,000 at $2.25. We also took bets of $30,000 and $20,000 for the Roosters with 4½ points start, so those punters got the cash when the final score was 16-13. There was ample support for the Bulldogs as well, including $22,000 conceding the start, and several $10,000 bets to win at $1.60, but as we said last week, we were already in a bind with premiership betting. The biggest successful bet was a pre-season bet of $25,000 for the Bulldogs at $9, but nobody could begrudge the winning punter as he was on the Doggies to win a similar amount two years ago when they were stripped of their points and sent to the bottom of the ladder. All the exotic bet types were busy, especially the game total, which was under/over 43½. The first bet taken was $15,000 on the under at $1.90, but at $1.80 the under, and $2 the over, there was money for both sides. Another two bets of $10,000 were plonked on the under, with wagers of $20,000, $12,000 and $8000 placed on the over, and that was after it started to rain again at the ground. The half time score of 13-6 in favour of the Roosters seemed to suggest that there was a strong possibility of the scoreline going over the 43½ point mark, but the defense of both sides was admirable, and the total fell well short. The Roosters' Chris Walker came in for plenty of criticism during the week, and that criticism saw punters shun the Roosters winger in betting to be the first try scorer. Walker went around virtually unwanted at $13, and gave us a terrific start to the game as the first scoring play option (Roosters try) was also unwanted even though it was a $2.75 shot. The bulk of betting was on either side to score a penalty goal, as that had been the trend of the finals series. Big Willie Mason is another who has copped plenty in the media this year, but league punters confidently predicted the Mason would be the best afield in the final. The Churchill Medal betting is always our most popular exotic bet on each year’s final, and it was no different this year. Brent Sherwin started $8 equal favourite with Brad Fittler, who was backed to win close to $80,000. It was then Willie Mason in the order of favourtism at $9 after opening at $13, with one punter from Sydney reaping the benefits of Mason's match winning performance after placing $1000 on him at $11. The league season isn't quite over yet with the Tri-Nations Test series due to get under way next week. Betting on the first match between Australia and New Zealand will open next Wednesday. GOLF Ernie Els, 'the big easy', battled the elements and a resurgent Thomas Bjorn to become the second European Tour player behind Darren Clarke to capture a WGC event, the American Express Championship. But it wasn't all 'easy'. Els led Bjorn by two shots leading into the final eighteen holes with a further shot back to Todd Hamilton, David Howell and Padraig Harrington. What was expected to be a sensational day for European Tour Members evolved into a titanic battle between Els and Bjorn. Bjorn stated his early intentions with three birdies in the first five holes while Els answered with two of his own, and in doing so cleared away from the rest of the field. Els was continually pressured by Bjorn before making birdie on the 17th to give himself a two shot buffer which allowed him the luxury of making bogey on the final hole for a one shot victory. The win, his fourth for the year, lifted him ahead of Tiger Woods in the official World Golf rankings to number two while also establishing a new record for money won for a single season on the Volvo Order of Merit. Well supported players such as Sergio Garcia, Darren Clarke and Padraig Harrington all threatened to play a hand in the finish before petering in a tie for fourth, which must have stuck in the throat of the punter who backed them to win more than $100,000 as it is usually Ernie Els who is the first player he supports. There was one rare bullet we managed to dodge on golf in recent weeks. On the PGA tour veteran Fred Funk captured his sixth career title when he birdied the final hole for a one shot victory over promising youngster Ryan Palmer. Ironically Funks last victory was at this very event back in 1998, so it has been a patient wait for one of the most likeable players on the tour. Players such as Cameron Beckman and Billy Andrade who were well supported failed to get themselves into the event. The highlight of this week’s event is the Dunhill Links Championships in Scotland which features the first head to head of the world's newly crowned numbers one and two, Vijay Singh and Ernie Els. They have been installed equal favourites at $6 and already have been the medium of heavy support, backed to win over $100,000 by a local client who perhaps is in no doubt that he missed the boat with Els last week. Also well backed has been Darren Clarke at $17 and Sweden's Henrik Stenson at $81. Els is a great links player and will prove hard to beat but playing on three different courses in the spate of four days may be a great leveller Back on the PGA tour Masters' Champion Phil Mickelson returns after a two week lay-off at the Michelin Championship in Las Vegas. He has been installed favourite at $9 ahead of another comebackee in Jim Furyk at $14 while defending champion, Australian Stuart Appleby is on the third line of betting at $15. Punters have failed to get too enthusiastic about this event, perhaps because of the mixed form of those who head the betting however Mickelson still has his share of admirers. Expect Appleby to make a good fist of his defence as his tie for 16th at last weeks American Express Championship was full of merit in a tough field. ENTERTAINMENT Anthony Callea, who was one of the 'bolters' of Australian Idol after the first round of eliminations, now finds himself as favourite at $1.90 to follow in Guy Sebastian's footsteps. Callea touched $41 after he looked destined for elimination when he didn't make it through the first round, but his chances were resurrected when he made it back into the competition via the 'wild card' show. Since then, Anthony's odds have continued to drop, and only last week we took another bet of $1000 at $3.75. He was impressive in last Sunday's show, and probably looks the ideal type to again impress this week when the theme will be 'The Beatles'. Ricky Lee may not be favourite anymore ($3), but we continue to see money for her. Last week she was backed to take out over $10,000, but she may not be suited by the upcoming theme, and there is still a large doubt over whether or not a female can win one of these types of event. Chanel Cole is on the verge of finding that out as the opening favourite is now a $15 chance after narrowly missing the guillotine on Monday's show. The judges do have some affect on the evictions as Mark Holden's critical assessment of Daniel probably bought about his demise, and Marcia Hines has been critical of Chanel for the past couple of weeks. On the other side of the coin, Casey continues to get rave reviews from the judges, but has been shunned by punters. Casey is still at $17, and would provide us with a big result if she can win. While Marty Worrall ($34) and Hayley Jensen ($51) remain at the bottom of the market, Courtney Murphy continues to hover around the top of the market, and could be the big improver this week. Courtney's popularity is growing, and he will be suited to a Beatles song. For that reason, we have seen plenty of support for him this week at $4.50, and you get the feeling that the general public have really warmed to 'the big guy'. ELECTIONS With football finals now out of the road, punters have now focused their attention on Saturday's Australian Federal election. There have been a series of changes to the betting since the campaign started six weeks ago, but there is one common denominator, and that is that the Coalition have always been favourites. The best price available was $1.55 on the Sept 4, and the current price of $1.25 is as short as the Coalition have been all year. Labor, on the other hand, got into $2.30 on Sept 4, blew out after that, got back into $2.50 late last week, and are now $3.50. The price moves have been similar to the last election, and it looks as though the Coalition will go in as very warm favourites. Late last week we reported of the $200,000 bet for the Coalition, but the campaign launch for Labor saw them firm from $3.30 into $2.50 by the weekend. There was an avalanche of support for Labor, but most of the bets were small, with the largest being $6000. We always expected the regular political punters who back the Coalition to bet in the final week, and that is what has transpired. On Monday, we took two bets of $30,000 (one at $1.40, the other at $1.33), as well as two bets of $10,000. Tuesday saw bets of $12,000 and $10,000 come at $1.30, and support has continued, even at the current price. Labor are still attracting support, led up by a $6000 wager on Tuesday at $3.50, but the total is nowhere near what is coming for the other side. On Wednesday, we cracked through the $1million barrier in bets taken on the election so far, and with still two full days to go, betting turnover is going to reach a record amount. Betting on the marginal seats has revealed some interesting trends. In most, the Labor candidates were the second favourites, and in keeping with the support for Labor to win, most of these candidates were backed in the first five weeks of the campaign. That support has dried up in many cases, and the Libs/Nats whom were originally favourites, are now being backed. The seat of Wentworth continues to be the best of those offered from our point of view, with Malcolm Turnbull back into $1.50 to win, ahead of David Patch ($2.50) and Peter King ($6). Close to $40,000 has been bet on this seat already, and all three have been backed. Eden-Monaro is another topical seat as the winning party of that seat has also been the winning party both at a State and Federal level for over 30 years. Labor's Kel Watt was opening second pick at $3.20, but was backed into $2.20, the biggest bet being $2000 at $2.50. The support for the Coalition as a whole has had an impact on this seat during the week as Watt has been hard to lay, while sitting member Gary Nairn has been backed from $1.50 into $1.40. There was some talk that Joe Hockey (Lib) could be in trouble in the seat of North Sydney, but we can't see that from looking at a few bets this week. After opening at $1.20, Hockey is into $1.07, the last two bets being $5000 and $4000 at $1.10. Similar amounts have been placed on Steve Gibbons (Lab) to win the seat of Bendigo at $1.10, and the same thing has happened with David Cox (Lab) in the South Australian seat of Kingston. The battle for the Tasmanian seat of Bass is enthralling, as sitting member Michelle O'Byrne (Lab) had a $5000 bet placed on her at $1.33, but she has drifted out to $1.50 as a result of constant support for Michael Ferguson, now into $2.20 after touching $3. The 'Pauline Hanson ' option on whether or not the famous red head will get a seat in the Senate is also creating interest. Nearly $30,000 has been wagered on both options, with the 'no' leading the way at $1.33. A couple of news polls say that Hanson will grab a Senate seat, but we have noticed that two of our regular political punters who normally win have bet that she won’t get in. CRICKET Football is over, and cricket season begins in earnest this week. Locally, the first ING Cup match will be played in Brisbane on Sunday between the Bulls and New South Wales. Queensland are the opening favourites at $1.33, with New South Wales at $3.25, but we haven't seen any betting yet. Internationally, the first test between Australia and India gets under way in Bangalore later today. Vision coming out of India of the wicket would be of concern to those who jumped in early last week and backed the draw, and this match does seem destined to finish early. The largest bet on the draw was $40,000 at $2.35, but with continued support fro Australia ($2.40), and India at $4.50, the price for the draw is back where it started. India's recent form is poor, and Tendulkar is injured, but they are near on unbeatable when playing at home to Australia, and of course we will be without Ricky Ponting. Matthew Hayden ($3.50) has been backed to win close to $15,000 to be the top Aussie batsman for the series, but veteran Darren Lehmann ($6), who has such a fine record against spin attacks, is our tip. In the bowling totals, Shane Warne has been backed to the exclusion of all others. For some strange reason, Warne has always struggled on the spinner friendly pitches in India, but he is going to get plenty of overs in these tests, and punters have reacted to that. The opening $3 was quickly taken, and now the $2.55 is still attracting bets, including one of $3600 from a Victorian client. Betting on the Indian tests will be updated at the end of each session. BASKETBALL The NBL is up and running for season 2004/05, and if Round one is any indication, we are in for an exciting and more even competition than ever before. Favourite backers are cashed up as five of the six winners were the favoured team, with four of them covering the spread. The only team to reverse the trend were the Adelaide 36ers who were impressive getting the victory in the season's first game in New Zealand. Adelaide went 1-1 for the round and immediately get the chance to atone for the loss as Townsville visit them this week in the Fox Sports Wednesday game. In a high scoring encounter the 36ers went down by three points after a Jacob Holmes three point shot which would have sent the game into overtime was ruled to have been released after the buzzer. The Perth v West Sydney game was another that saw plenty of points being posted as the Wildcats amassed 120 on their way to securing Scott Fisher's first win as coach. He must have liked what he saw as he did not call a single time-out in the match. Perth will only get better when Rosell Ellis receives his clearance to suit up. Despite not getting the wins in their respective matches, Hunter and Cairns showed enough to suggest they will be a handful for most opponents. Both had big half-time leads (Hunter 10 and Cairns 18) but foul trouble and inexperience ultimately cost them victory. The pick of Round 2 matches appear to be both the Fox games. On Wednesday Adelaide host Townsville. After getting so close in Townsville, Adelaide are favoured to get the points here but will need to find a way to restrict the Croc's high powered offence. Adelaide go in at a well backed $1.63 favourite, and have had bets of $5000 and $3000 placed on them to beat a 3 point handicap. On Saturday night two of last season's semi-finalists, Wollongong and Brisbane, meet at the 'gong. Both got wins in Round 1 and this will be a good test for both teams. Only two visiting teams got the points in Round 1 but these two Queensland teams will be very hard to hold out in the televised games. FORMULA ONE Rubens Barrichello comes to the Japanese Grand Prix not only as the winner of the last two GP's, but also as defending champion in Japan. While it appears as though Barrichello's team-mate Michael Schumacher has eased off the pedal since securing his seventh world title, he is still hard to oppose at Suzuka where is a five times winner, including three times in the last four years. The Ferrari's dominate the betting with Schumacher favourite at $1.67 ahead of Barrichello at $4.50. There hasn't been any significant for the favourite yet, but Barrichello has been backed to win, and also to finish on the podium ($6000 at $1.35). Some are predicting further improvement from the B.A.R team as we have layed Jenson Button to lose $15,000 to win the race at $11, as well as two bets of €1000 to finish in the placings at $2.50. Our 'top 8 finish' option has become increasingly popular as the season has progressed, and two that have been well supported to finish amongst the points are Giancarlo Fisichella ($1.70) and Felipe Massa at $5. Each has been backed to win just over €10,000 by a group of German F1 followers. MOTOR BIKES Just when we thought it was all over, the Moto GP season has sprung back to life after Sete Gibernau won the first ever GP held in Qatar last week. There were a couple of sensations in that race when Valentino Rossi and Max Biaggi were sent to the back of the grid, and that saw Gibernau's price slashed to $2.25 before he went on to record a big victory. Rossi parted company with his bike, failing to finish amongst the points, and with three races to go, Gibernau has his fate in his own hands- three wins would see him secure his first World Championship. This week, Rossi is $2.10 to win the Malaysian Grand Prix in Sepang. He is adept in the hot and humid conditions, and has already attracted nearly $6000 in bets. Gibernau is second pick at $3.50 ahead of Biaggi at $7, with Makoto Tamada ($8) being the best backed rider outside of the favourite. BATHURST The V8's will be in action on Sunday in one of the world's most enduring car races, Bathurst. Holden have won the last five Bathurst's, and are $1.70 to repeat the dose again, although there has been money for Ford at $2.10 Defending champions Greg Murphy and Rick Kelly are $6.50 second favourites to win the big race, but punters have preferred to stick with favourites Marcus Ambrose and Greg Ritter ($4) who have already been backed to win nearly $12,000. Ambrose currently leads the driver’s championship, and this pair won the recent Sandown 500, but Bathurst is more about reliability than sheer speed. It is worth noting that Murphy and Kelly have won this race three times before in 1996, 1999, and 2003, so they have the form on the board. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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