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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES There has been some activity on the AFL prices for next season, and this week we also opened up the final eight betting for next year. As far as the premiership goes, Port have been virtually unwanted at $3.50, with around $2500 worth of bets coming for both St Kilda ($5) and Geelong ($10). We have already mentioned the $5000 bet for the West Coast taken two weeks ago at $15, while both Collingwood and Essendon have had close to $1000 placed on them at $21. With Brisbane missing Simon Black (3 games), Jonathon Brown (5 games) and the retirement of Alistair Lynch, it is possible that the Lions will get off to an ordinary start next season, so we have raced them out to $5, but there aren't too many takers! The final eight always provides at least one upset, and this year there were three with Collingwood, Hawthorn and Fremantle all missing out. The trick is trying to work out who can miss, but given that many of the sides are very short, they are sometimes hard to lay. Following on from our prediction that Brisbane might have a poor start, we should be in play to get something out of the Lions at $1.20, and perhaps also Collingwood and Essendon at $1.65. Normally, the teams that are backed early are the sides in 'black' figures, so we can expect to see money for Carlton, Hawthorn and Richmond at around the $2.50 mark. The Australian side have touched down in Ireland for Sunday night's first International Rules test. The Aussies have gone for a much smaller, mobile side this time around, as bigger players aren't of any value in the hybrid game. It won't be easy trying to win over there, and we have installed the Irish as favourites at $1.65. These games are much lower scoring than traditional AFL games, and there is usually money for the home sides, as evidenced by bets totaling $5000 for Ireland. RUGBY LEAGUE The draw for next season hasn't been done yet, but Bulldogs punters have been eager to get on to make it back to back titles, so betting has also opened on next years NRL. The Bulldogs have to be favourites, it was only a matter of settling on a price, and that price is $3. Granted they have lost Steve Price, but there is a lot of depth in the club, and they did win the final without Price. Second elects are the Sydney Roosters $6, and although the Roosters were favourites for most of season 2004, Brad Fittler is going to be a big loss. Penrith can probably be reasonably happy with their year just finished, and will be a force again in 2005. We have priced up the Panthers at $10 as they are a side that just don't attract money. The big shock will be to those hoping to secure any big odds for St George Illawarra or North Queensland. The Dragons are $10 in our market, and if they can have a slightly more consistent season next year, they will be the team to beat. For all of those who were looking forward to hopping into some juicy odds about the Cowboys, think again! We have assessed the North Queenslanders at $10, and can't see any reason why they won’t hold the trophy aloft next year. After a poor start to this season, they were only 3 points away from playing in the final, and did beat the Bulldogs two weeks prior, so the opening quote of $10 seems well and truly justified. Parramatta ($16) promise plenty but rarely deliver, but have to be in the main part of the market, as do Brisbane ($13) and Newcastle ($13). We maintain that the latter two sides will struggle next year, the Bronco's have a huge void with Gordon Tallis retiring, and Newcastle reliance on Andrew Johns has never been more evident than over the past two years. We will keep you posted as to any major moves, but before that we have a Tri Nations League test to deal with on Saturday. New Zealand will be at home in Albany to tackle Australia, with many from both sides coming off enforced breaks due to their sides missing the finals. That makes it difficult to assess, but the Australian side must be the favourites, and we have settled on $1.25, or -11½ points. In a relatively quiet start to the betting, all we have taken in the first few hours has been nearly $4000 for Australia to win, and nothing yet at the handicaps. ELECTIONS John Howard has been elected to another term as Australian Prime Minister, and once again, the Centrebet 'punters poll' proved to be the best barometer when looking for the winner. The news polls had the big race neck and neck right up until Saturday morning, but a look at the betting fluctuations suggested that it was all over much earlier than that. The closing prices were $1.10 for the Coalition, and $6 for Labor, and when you consider that exactly one week before it was $1.45 and $2.55, it is easy to see that punters were on the mark more so than the polls. The major turning point of the campaign took place last Tuesday following the release of Labor's Forest Policy. In the ensuing days, the Liberal Party candidate, Michael Ferguson was backed from an unwanted $3.20 into $1.35. The sitting member, Michelle O'Byrne, blew like the north wind from $1.33 out to $3. That sort of move also took place in most other seats, with Coalition candidates firming in the betting following solid support. That of course meant that Labor were unlikely to pick up marginal seats that they needed to, so they couldn't win. We confidently predicted on Friday that not only would the Coalition win, but that they would increase their majority, and that was a against what all the polls said. All up, just under $1.9 million was bet on the election, a staggering amount of money. Not wishing to miss an opportunity while the issue is still in the news, we have opened up the market to win the next election. On face value, the $1.33 for the Coalition might seem well over the odds given what happened last Saturday, but there are two things worth noting. The first is that Labor made some tactical errors this time, and will learn from that, and the second is that there must be a strong possibility that Peter Costello will be in charge of the Coalition by then, and that will also affect the betting. Now we have to deal with the US election, and that is also shaping as a massive betting event. We have already taken over $300,000 worth of bets, and at last count, clients from 27 countries had had a bet. As soon as we paid out the Australian election on Sunday, several Aussie punters reinvested on the American election, led up by a bet of $50,000 at $1.65 for George Bush. Five separate bets of $10,000 have followed, all at different odds down to where we currently sit ($1.47) for Bush to be re-elected, with John Kerry out to $2.50. For those who are wondering how we went on the Australian election, we managed to stagger out of it all with a very small credit. Mark Latham would have been a sensational result, but maybe next time? BASKETBALL The trend for home teams having success, which was noted after Round 1, strengthened considerably as Round 2 progressed. From thirteen games played the home team has emerged victorious eleven times. It is indicative of an even competition when a strong trend for home teams emerges and this is certainly what we have with the NBL this season. Amongst the road casualties last week were the two teams that head the Championship betting, Brisbane (2 losses) and Sydney. It is far too early to write them off yet but with home games this week they will need to get wins to maintain their joint favouritism at $4.75. The only two undefeated teams, Perth and Wollongong, are yet to play away from home but their chance comes this week and if they maintain their perfect records they will shorten considerably in Championship betting. Perth in particular face a daunting task with games on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday against Hunter, Townsville and Cairns respectively. They could emerge from the round with a 5-0 or a 2-3 record. Somewhere in between is more likely but if you think they will be 5-0 you would be advised to take the $10 right now about them wining the title because it won't be available come Monday morning if they return to Perth with three wins. Whilst there will be a lot of interest in Perth's travels the spotlight this round falls firmly on Brisbane and Sydney. On Saturday Brisbane get an opportunity to avenge the thrashing that West Sydney handed them last round. It is not too harsh to say they were a disorganized rabble as the Razorbacks handed them a 106-75 basketball lesson. It will be interesting to see how much difference a week and home court makes. Whatever the result they will have no time to dwell on it as they then travel to Sydney to face the Kings on Sunday night. Before this clash the Kings will have had Wednesday and Saturday appointments (home and away) with the Tigers. It appears to be week where punters will need to be fearless as no matches come leaping at you as foregone conclusions. The safest way to go would seem to be the big minus line Adelaide at home against Hunter who will be having their first game away from the Newcastle Entertainment Centre. GOLF It certainly was a week for breakthroughs in the world of golf as Stephen Gallacher and Australian Andre Stolz were maiden winners on their respective tours. On the PGA tour Stolz came from one shot behind leader Tom Lehman to record his maiden PGA victory and resurrect what had been a disastrous season which included missing 10 of 11 cuts at one point. A bogey by Lehman on the seventeenth gave the Australian a two shot buffer and despite a birdie from the veteran on the final hole Stolz was able to survive the pressure and two putt from 45 feet to clinch the win. Lehman had not won on the tour since the Phoenix Open in 2000 however the signs were good with a recent tie for fourth at the Bell Canadian Open two starts ago. With the rookie Australian and an out of form Dicky Pride, whose best finish for the season was a tie for 47th, the chases, it was expected Lehman would have too much experience and that was reflected in his final round quote of $4. When you consider that the veteran was unable to hang on, Phil Mickelson missed the cut and multiple winners Justin Leonard and Bob Estes threatened but could not deliver then it proved a disappointing event for the elite of the PGA tour. Punters were also off the mark with roughies Geoff Ogilvy, Hunter Mahan and Joe Ogilvie never really firing. On the European tour Scot Stephen Gallacher defeated an elite field which featured the World's number one and two and a host of European Ryder Cup members to capture his maiden victory. Coming from three shots behind overnight leader Luke Donald, Gallacher fired a controlled five under par 67 to force the tournament into a play-off with Irishman Graeme McDowell before sticking an iron to 3 feet on the first hole. The victory was certainly well received by the locals and Centrebet alike with Gallacher completely friendless in the betting which was in stark contrast to the galleries. Super stars Els and Singh who were backed to win over $150,000 played solidly without ever appearing to have a hand on the trophy and it was left to Ryder Cup heroes McDowell, Poulter, Donald, Howell and Westwood to fight out an enthralling final day with the victorious Scott. The PGA tour heads to Forest Oaks this week for the Greater Greensborough Open which sees defending champion Shigeki Maruyama well supported from his opening quote of $26 into $23. Favourite is Davis Love at $12 from Jim Furyk at $13 and the inform Donald at $17. Also well in the betting are the improving Zach Johnson and experienced David Toms at $21 however this event has failed to capture the imagination of the punting public probably as it has produced a different winner in each of the last ten years. On the European scene we head to Wentworth England for the HSBC World Matchplay title where favourite Ernie Els, $3.25, is attempting to create history and become the first player to capture six Match play titles, Gary Player and Seve Ballesteros having won five. He should expect some resistance however from second seed Vijay Singh at $4.25, while fellow countryman Retief Goosen at $8, Padraig Harrington and Lee Westwood both $13 may also figure. One golf follower is attempting to recoup the last two weeks misdemeanors on Ernie Els and has had $20,000 at the $3.50 followed by another $40,000 at $3.25, while saving on Vijay Singh in the other half of the draw with $20,000 at $4.25. There is no doubt that Els loves this course however there are several players in fine touch apart from those already mentioned including Miguel Angel Jimenez and Todd Hamilton. matchplay is a tough format so expect the unexpected. Also on the European tour Spaniard Sergio Garcia is a solid $4 favourite to capture the Turespana Mallorca Classic from countryman Jose Maria Olazabal at $13, Englishman Brian Davis at $17 and last weeks winner Stephen Gallacher at $21.Garcia has been well supported with several bets exceeding $1,000 however the rest of the field has failed to ignite any interest from the rest of the punting public with the World Matchplay title taking centre stage. CRICKET It was nice to sit back and watch Australia destroy India in the first cricket test and not have to worry about the financial aspect of the game! Cricket followers abandoned Australia in this test, sticking with the other two options. There were some large wagers struck for the draw, including two bets of $40,000 ($2.35), both from India. Those punters hinted that weather might prove a factor, but it didn't. Aussie punters jumped on India, who were backed from $4.50 into $3.75 before the start. One Sydney punter invested $30,000 at $4.25, but he had plenty of mates who also backed the Indians. They were never in contention from the moment the first ball was bowled, but it might be a different story this week. Chenai is one ground where India never lose, and there was enough of a flicker in their second innings against Australia to say that they can fight back and level the series. The opening quote of $2.25 for a draw was taken by two Indian punters, each with a wager of $40,000, and we also took an $8000 bet at $2.20. In contrast to the first test, there has been money for Australia, including bets of $30,000 and $10,000 at $2.60. India are the neglected side this time around, only attracting small bets at $4.50. The betting will be updated at the end of each session. ENTERTAINMENT The whole country was in mourning on Tuesday when Ricky Lee was inexplicably voted out of Australian Idol on Monday night. Now we know that females are up against it anyway when a phone in poll is used, but there seems to be no apparent reason why the heavily backed second favourite was shown the door. Ricky Lee wasn't the only one who struggled in Sunday's show, and she had been the pin-up girl of punters for several weeks. When betting closed prior to the show, Ricky Lee was $2.50, narrowly behind Anthony at $2, and then a huge gap to Courtney. Punters have been hit hard on this one as well over half the money invested on Australian Idol to date had been for Ricky Lee. That has seen things slow down a bit this week as punters try and work out who will be in the gun next! We keep saying that the females can't win these type of shows because of the voting trends, so now everyone has to work out how the show will go from here. With Chanel finishing just ahead of Ricky Lee the other night, she might be in trouble, and is out to $10. The other two girls, Casey ($15) and Hayley ($17) occupy the bottom end of the market, and not surprisingly, haven't had much support this week. Anthony has hung on to favourite status at $1.60, but the two movers have been the remaining two males, Courtney now into $3, and Marty, written off two weeks ago, back in to $11. MOTOR BIKES All eyes will be on rising Australian star Casey Stoner in this week’s 125cc race at Phillip Island on Sunday. Stoner won his first race of the season in Malaysia last week, and will go into this race a solidly backed third elect at $5 to win on his home soil. Andrea Dovizioso finished second in that event, enough to wrap up the 125cc World Championship, so the big query is whether he will be 100% motivated for this weekend. The punters are wary as he has been hard to lay at $2.50. In the 250cc's, Daniel Pedrosa is a $1.90 chance to secure that championship on Sunday. Pedrosa needs just two points to claim victory, but it wont be all plain sailing as he has had Sebastian Porto ($3.25) breathing down his neck all season. Meanwhile, Aussie Anthony West ($21) will be trying to improve on last years second placing, but has had a disappointing year, failing to finish on the podium at all. It appears as though Valentino Rossi will once again be crowned the 500cc champion this weekend after another stunning victory in Malaysia. That win saw Rossi increase his lead to 30 points, and he only needs to finish ahead of Sete Gibernau this week to claim his fourth title in a row. Australian punters love the diminutive Italian, and we took close to $5,000 in bets for him in the early hours of betting at $1.67. Gibernau is second pick at $4.25, but he is a rider who we continually have trouble getting any money out of. As usual, betting will close while the qualifying sessions are on, and there will be an array of head to heads on each of the races. RACING Elvstroem has been at the head of the Caulfield Cup market for a couple of weeks, and a nice barrier draw (4) has seen the Tony Vasil trained stayer shorten up a little more for Saturday's Cup. Elvstroem has always been well in commission to win the Caulfield Cup since betting opened, only rated a $21 chance in that market. Fortunately punters kept away from him until he struck form, and having won his last two in impressive fashion, that led a concerted push, including bets of $4000 at $6, as well as $4000 each way at $5.50. Prior to the barrier draw he was $4.50, but the draw saw major changes, with Elvstroem into $4. There is little doubt that Elvstroem will start favourite, but last year's winner, Mummify, burst back into calculations with a win last Saturday, and is another horse who is extremely popular with punters. Last year, some close connections to Mummify backed it to win $200,000 with Centrebet in the Caulfield Cup, but we haven't heard from them this time around (thankfully!). After drawing well in barrier 8, Mummify is the horse attracting most bets at $6.50, but they are mostly small. As with most of the main chances, the Gai Waterhouse trained Desert War is also rated highly by punters, now a $9 chance. On Monday of this week, a Sydney punter placed $2500 each way Desert War at $9, and there is a constant stream of money to say the Desert War can continue the Sydney dominance from last Saturday. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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