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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES The Australian International Rules side faces a monumental task this weekend trying to avenge a 77-41 defeat at the hands of the Irish last weekend. Ireland went into that game warm favourites at $1.60, and while it wasn't one of the bigger betting games we have had on these tours, we did take two $6000 bets for Ireland, both from Victorian punters. Naturally there was money for the Aussies at $2.25, but we also opened a few new accounts from Ireland who also backed Australia to win! This week, we expect Australia will be very hard to sell, even at the current price of $3.30. Already we have taken nearly $7000 worth of bets for Ireland at $1.30 to win, and nearly the same amount again to cover a 15 point handicap. On last week’s performance, that looks a charitable start, but we are relying on the Aussies improving with one run under their belt. RUGBY LEAGUE The first Tri Nations test match in North Harbour was played in difficult conditions at a venue where the Kiwis had met with success against the Kangaroos on two previous occasions. However a repeat of one of those wins was at long odds as it was expected the Australian halves would have too much skill, and a superior kicking game, for their counterparts. Betting was quite brisk early with an opening wager of $20,000 on the Kangaroos at $1.22 followed by several more wagers giving 11½ points before betting settled. However nearing kick off time support arrived for the locals receiving the start, an obvious reaction to the weather conditions, but significant enough to force the handicap into 10½ points. This presented us with an ordinary 11 point spread which was reduced somewhat when a flurry of money arrived for the Kangaroos conceding the start. The locals were fired up early and a try to Vinnie Anderson in the sixth minute gave every indication this would be a tight match, however the visitors answered the challenge with a thirty minute period where they completely dominated, opening up a 16-6 lead. A late try to Louis Anderson just prior to half-time put the New Zealanders back into the game but it was still expected the Australian team would be too polished. Half-time betting had the Kangaroos firm slightly into $1.16, with a savoury price the Kiwis of $4.50 attracting some attention. Just prior to the kick off of the second half we received two separate bets of $3,000 on the Australians conceding 12½ points which seemed to reaffirm our opinion that they would be too classy, however that proved not to be the case. The Kiwis came out in the second half fired up, scoring an equalising try in the 55th minute, and dominating general field play but finding the desperate Australian defence difficult to penetrate. A flurry of field goal attempts in the final eight minutes of play came up empty with the game finishing in a worthy 16 all draw. The second test at Loftus Road Stadium in London may not produce such a tight contest with the Kiwis losing Utai, Puletua and Gallavau. The Kangaroos, with the return of Craig Fitzgibbon have been installed $1.16 favourites and conceding 14½ points, while the $5 on the Kiwis has not attracted too much attention. This gives us every indication that the money will arrive for the favourites who will be desperate to keep their unbeaten series record of the last 28 years intact. RUGBY UNION The semi finals of the NPC Championship in New Zealand produced few surprises with favourites Wellington and Canterbury proving too strong for Waikato and Bay of Plenty respectively, thus producing a final which will make New Zealand Rugby purists mouth water. The Wellington Lions, with only one lose for the NPC season, were expected to have a little too much variety for their Waikato counterparts, and that proved to be the case. Played in appalling conditions the Lions started $1.30 favourites and conceding 10½ points which they managed to cover despite the poor kicking performance of Piri Weepu. Weepu may have kicked poorly however he was a livewire around the ruck scoring a try and creating others. In the other semi final, Bay of Plenty's dream of playing in their first ever final was washed away by a torrent called Canterbury, winning 44-12. There is no doubt the conditions favoured Canterbury with their ruthless style, however the All Black laden side also finished off their hard work in style. Punters who took the short quote of $1.12 and conceding 17½ points were never threatened and those who were keen to take the short price both favourites through multis, and there were plenty, were in the queue by half-time. The final promises to be a classic. Canterbury were solidly supported to take the title last week at $1.85 with one $30,000 wager from a New Zealand client forcing that price into $1.80. Nevertheless the Lions have been impressive all season and after overcoming their first hurdle, Waikato, are expected to give Canterbury a tough time on their home soil. Betting opened $1.85 Canterbury and $1.95 Wellington however an early rush for the visitors has seen their price firm into $1.75 and now conceding 2½ points. When these two teams met in the first round of the season Wellington proved a little too strong on their home turf prevailing 34-27, however Canterbury welcome back six All-Blacks who were unavailable for that game and punters believe that will prove the difference. BASKETBALL Last week the question was posed of how much difference does a week and home court make? Results from Round 3 suggest either 25 or 29 points. Brisbane improved by 29 points returning home to take on West Sydney and Cairns were a 25 point better side at home against Perth compared to the week previous when they were visiting the Wildcats. Punters thought Brisbane would improve by more and were quick to snap up the minus 4, 4½ and 5 but despite looking likely at different stages to get the money the Bullets were unable to hold out the Razorbacks who exploited some serious match-up problems. Punters again got it wrong in the Cairns v Perth game but not by much. Cairns scored six unanswered points in the final minute to force overtime and eventually prevailed in double overtime as the Wildcats arduous schedule caught up with them. If it remains true that a week and home court is worth in the region of 25-29 points then Brisbane will cover the spread when the Kings visit on Friday night. On Sunday night they finished 21 points adrift of the Kings as their imports failed to produce the numbers we are accustomed to seeing. This club has too much talent not to quickly turnaround their 1-4 start but they do need to do it soon. The Bullets are $1.68 (-2½), and the early money has been for them to win. Perth's unlucky double overtime loss has left Wollongong as the only undefeated team, but they face a tough home/away double this week. First they hosted Townsville in the televised Wednesday game, (which they won) then journey to Cairns on Saturday. With the parity in the league this season it will be a rarity for teams to put together big sequences of wins and despite their impeccable form we will be taking on the Hawks this weekend. In WNBL action this week Dandenong return from a very creditable showing at the World Club Championship in Russia to take on the inconsistent Adelaide Lightning who then have to front up again the next day against Bulleen. CRICKET The 'locals' say it hasn't rained in Chenai for 30 years, and while that might be a slight exaggeration, they certainly got their fair share of rain that saw a premature end to the second Test early this week. The Indians would still be cursing their bad luck with the weather as they were primed to level the series. The betting at the end of the fourth day saw India at $1.35, Australia at $3.50, and the draw at $13. There were a few punters who did their homework and hopped into the draw early on Monday morning, including bets of $1000 at $13 and $11, and two $500 bets at $7. Money talks all languages, and the draw was realistically a 1000/1 pop (weather aside), so we copped the tip and turned the game off. That turned out to be a good move as there were hundreds of enquiries about the draw in the following two hours. One punter who did benefit from the early finish was one of our Indian regulars who placed a total of $100,000 (in three bets) on the draw at an average of $2.25 before the match started. From the time Australia lost their first wicket, the match looked destined for a result, and the game ended up being one of the biggest betting Tests ever played outside of Australia. The Aussies attracted one bet of $40,000 before the match started at $2.60, and the biggest bet for India was $USD 40,000 at $2 shortly after they took a first innings lead. With Shane Warne in form, and his Indian counterparts cutting a swathe through the Australian batting attack in Chennai, the series is now delicately poised with two Tests remaining. Australia, are into $1.30 to win the series as they lead 1-0, the 'drawn series' is $4.50, and India, who must win the remaining two Tests, are $11. Betting is up on the third test in Nagpur which is due to start next Thursday. The draw is again short at $2.25 (one early bet of $USD 20,000 from India), Australia are $2.60, with India the outsiders at $4.50. RACING Punters were spot on with their assessment of the Caulfield Cup when favourite Elvstroem ($4) led all the way to beat the heavily backed, and unlucky, Makybe Diva. The result was not a good one for Centrebet as Elvstroem had been favourite for weeks, and did attract several $5000 bets on the day of the race. Makybe Diva came in from $17 on Saturday morning to start at $13, and in one more bound would have got the money. The only other horse in the market that was backed for anywhere near the amount that the first two placegetters were, was the Kiwi horse Balmuse who was disappointing. All of the money came from New Zealand, including $5000 at $15, $7000 at $12, and two $5000 bets at $10. The one thing to come out of the Caulfield Cup was that Makybe Diva is on track to make it back to back Melbourne Cups. She has firmed into $3.75 now, and this week we have taken bets of $3000 each way, $2500, and three $2000 bets for her to win. Granted she looks the one to beat, but rarely do you find a Cup favourite less than $5 on the day of the race, so we are happy to lay her at that quote. Vinnie Roe has been well backed following reports of some good track work. The Dermott Weld trained invader was $15 last week, but bets totaling $6000 each way, as well as a couple of withdrawals, have seen the price reduced to $6.50, at which price he is second favourite. His stablemate Media Puzzle (winner in 2002) has also been supported heavily in the past few days, with as much as $26 being given, and taken. Now, Media Puzzle is $10, and while we missed all the money at the bigger odds, we are beginning to see that price being snapped up. Queensland trained Pacific Dancer has zoomed into the market at $11 after his strong victory in the Geelong Cup which has been a good guide in recent years with She's Archie second last year and Media Puzzle winning the previous year. Starcraft will go into Saturday's Cox Plate as favourite, but many are divided on whether the barrier draw (one) is an advantage or not. Startcraft has shown in the past he has a mind of his own, and Moonee Valley circuit is not the place for enigmatic gallopers, but there is no doubting his ability. This week alone, we have already taken close to $20,000 for the Queensland champ at $3.75 and another bet of $40,000 at $3.50, but with so many chances in the race, there is money for practically every runner. Elvstroem is second pick at $4.50 ahead of Grand Armee at $4.75. The David Hayes trained Elegant Fashion, who raced with success in Australia before going to Hong Kong, is into $9, and has been backed to win close to $100,000 with us over the past week. Boom galloper Regal Roller has only raced at the Valley once for a failure, but he is a different horse now, and having strung together a series of wins, many think his winning run will continue. This week we have take bets of $8000 and $4000 at $11, but the big query with Regal Roller will be the distance, and whether or not Miss Potential ($126) worries him in the lead. Graeme Rogerson’s statement that Savabeel “will win” has seen that 3yo backed from $21 into $9 in a $100,000 plunge. GOLF Ernie Els created history in becoming the first player to win six World Match-play titles when he defeated Englishman Lee Westwood 2 and 1 at the Wentworth Club on Sunday, and in doing so captured a consecutive Volvo Order of Merit title. Els was backed to win in excess of $150,000 by a loyal follower, and despite having to take a short quote of $3.25, the client was never under any pressure as Els dispensed with Scott Drummond, Angel Cabrera and an injured Padraig Harrington on his way to the final against Lee Westwood. Westwood had beaten Els on two previous occasions in this event, 1998 and 2000, and was expected to give the 'Big Easy' a run for his money. This proved to be the case, taking Els until the 28th hole to edge two up and gain the initiative which he held to the completion of the match on the 35th hole. In the aftermath Westwood revealed he had to contest the final in not the best of health, which made his brave performance even more creditable, and perhaps the result may have been different had he been 100%. On the PGA tour Brent Geiberger emulated the feats of his father Al to win the Chrysler Classic of Greensboro, and become the first father-son combination to win the same event on the PGA tour. Al Geiberger won the event in 1976 so Brents' second win on the tour, (his previous at Hartford in 1999), was special for the whole family and gives him a two year exemption. Well supported players such as Joe Ogilvie, Tom Pernice and Luke Donald failed to seriously launch a challenge, while wily veteran Tom Lehman, who was the medium of heavy support at the completion of round two at $6, failed to close out the event. This week on the tour we see Vijay Singh returning to defend his title in the Funai Classic at the Walt Disney Resort, won last year by four shots over Tiger Woods. He has been heavily supported, backed to win in excess of $100,000 at his opening quote of $4.50, and unlike last year this event has no other top ten players with Chris DiMarco next in the betting at $21, from Jim Furyk at $23 and Scott Verplank at $26. There is no doubt that Singh will be hard to beat, and if successful will cap off the worst eight weeks in Centrebet's golf betting history with one punter winning in excess of $1,000,000 from a succession of winning wagers on Singh and Els. Who said backing a winner of a golf event was almost impossible? On the European scene, Argentinean Ricardo Gonzalez returns to defend the title he won 12 months ago at the Open de Madrid. He is given some hope at $31, although his form leading into this event is inferior to that of last year. Ryder Cup players David Howell and Graeme McDowell have been the medium of heavy support at $13, with the inform Spaniard Miguel Angel Jimenez heading the betting at $8. Throw in veterans Colin Montgomerie ($21), Brian Davis, ($23), and recent winner Stephen Gallacher at $26 and you will see that this will be no easy event to win. Let’s hope we can have better luck on this one! ELECTIONS The US election is a chance of rivaling the Australian Election as far as betting goes as we have already taken close to $500,000 in bets, and with the two main candidates each attracting bets, it is making for a terrific betting event. There are several different markets, as well as opinions, on which way this will go, but from what we are seeing, the betting public thinks George Bush will be re-elected. We took a $50,000 bet for Bush at $1.65 the day after the Australian election was decided (from a Sydney punter), and we have taken three $10,000 bets at different prices all the way down to the current quote of $1.47. Even at that price there is some serious money coming in, including another $50,000 wager (again from Sydney) early this week. The $2.50 now available for John Kerry is layable, with the biggest bet so far this week being 4000 pounds from an English client, followed by a bet of $CAN 6000 placed by a new sign up from Vancouver. To date, we have taken bets from in excess of 30 countries, so the whole world is watching, and betting, on who will lead the USA after November 2. ENTERTAINMENT Not much has happened with the order of favourtism on Australian Idol following the demise of Marty Worrall on Monday night. Anthony Callea is still the favourite at $1.70, ahead of Courtney Murphy at $3. Both have had close to $5000 placed on them at around those odds since Ricky Lee's shock exit last week, and although the women left in the competition are under extreme pressure from the voting public, we have seen money for all three females left in. This week, Chanel Cole opened at $11 and was backed to win just over $20,000, which saw her price crash in to $7.Casey Donavon was backed to win $12,000 last week, and has again been supported this week at $15, while Hayley Jensen, the outsider of the field at $21, has plenty of support from smaller punters, but we feel that the format of next Sunday's show may work against her. We are also covering 'Dancing with the Stars', the new show on Channel Seven hosted by Daryl Somers. There has been genuine interest! in all competitors with about $3000 wagered so far, but in the male dominated arena of sports betting, it isn't hard to work out who punters have put their money on. Bec Cartwright ($4) and 'The Pleasure Machine' Gabrielle Richens ($7) were the ones carrying the most bets, but in keeping with tradition, the voting public voted out a good looking female (Richens), so Bec Cartwright had better beware! She is currently the favourite at $2.85, with nearly $2000 placed on her this week. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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