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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Although going down 55-41, the Australian International Rules side regained some credibility in an entertaining second test on Sunday night. The whole concept of the hybrid game has copped plenty of criticism following last weeks whitewash, but although the Australian side was down a little on talent when they hit the Irish shores, it was always on the cards that they would show significant improvement to quieten some of the critics. All the adverse reactions gave the second match plenty of publicity, and that saw nearly $50 000 worth of bets taken, pretty good for this type of game. Ireland went in as $1.35 favourites, carrying one bet of $9000, but we saw ample support for Australia at $3. The handicap opened at 14½ points in Ireland's favour, and for those who took the 'plus' for Australia (one bet of $5000, and another of $2000), they got home by the barest possible margin. We had already taken a bet of $7000 for Ireland conceding 14½ points start, but most of the business was done when the line moved in to 13½. Australia would have been our worst result if they had finished inside that mark as the last bet taken on the match was $10,000 with 13½ points start. Aussie rules takes a well earned rest now, and will return in February when the pre-season comp gets under way. LEAGUE The second game of the Tri Nations Series kicked off on Saturday evening between Australia and New Zealand at Loftus Road Stadium in London. This time the Kangaroos played for keeps. The result of the first game between these two nations, a 16 all draw at North Harbour Stadium, only strengthened punters resolve that this would be a tightly contested tournament despite the loss of Utai, Puletua and Galuvao for the Kiwis. Betting opened with the Kangaroos $1.16 favs and conceding 14½ points, the Kiwis a savoury $5.25 given their showing first up. Punters were quick to take the handicap price, with our first wager being $NZ8000 from one of our loyal clients from the land of the long white cloud, forcing that price into $1.85. It wasn't long after that they rallied for the win price of $5.25, a $4,000 wager from the UK firming that price into $4.75. We were firmly of the opinion that the loss of three stars and the return of Craig Fitzgibbon for the Kangaroos would make all the difference but as the weather in the UK deteriorated so did the state or our book. We couldn't get a cracker out of the Aussies while there was a steady stream of money for the Kiwis firming into $4.25 and 13½ points by kick off. At half-time we were willing to refund all wagers as a 12-8 score line in favour of the Kiwis was not exactly what we were after, although it did knock out one large multi from a regular client which started with Australia-Australia in the half/full double. However sterling defence in the second half coupled with four brilliant tries turned the game on its head as the Kangaroos ran out easy winners, 32-12.The only disappointment for the Australians being the injuries to Captain Darren Lockyer and second rower Fitzgibbon. Fitzgibbon should only miss one week however it's a different story with Lockyer despite all the smoke and mirrors suggesting he may be back this week, the likelihood is he will not be available until the final. The announcement of a new halves pairing will be the talking at this weeks team selection. The Kangaroos take on Great Britain this week in Manchester and if last years series between these countries is any indication then this game should be a cracker. Betting opened with the Kangaroos $1.45 favs and conceding 6½ points, however early money from the UK has forced that quote out to $1.47 and the handicap price out to $1.92.We expect the money to arrive locally for the Australians, particularly after last weeks impressive showing however at this stage the Poms are more prepared to put their money where their mouth is. After years of copping a hiding from the Aussies I find that very surprising! RUGBY The finals of the NPC and Currie Cup took place over the weekend with the favourites in their respective countries both being successful. While Canterbury completely dominated Wellington after the first half hour, the Blue Bulls had to hold off a spirited Cheetahs fight back to win their third Cup in a row. Wellington had beaten Canterbury in the first round of the season and after only losing one match were expected to provide the red and blacks with some staunch opposition. Betting opened with Canterbury favourites at $1.85 from Wellington at $1.95 however we reacted quickly to our first wager, $NZ10,000 for Canterbury, forcing that price into $1.80. Betting didn't dry up there either and after another flurry for the Cantabrilans we were forced to shorten then further into $1.75. At that point we opened handicap betting, conceding 2½ points at $1.90, where we then layed a further $10,000 on the favs. Can anyone notice a trend? Yes the money kept coming for Canterbury forcing their price into $1.70 by kick off and the start price into $1.80. The 40-27 score line was flattering to Wellington who played with plenty of vigour but not much purpose. Over in Pretoria the Blue Bulls were a little too organised for the Free Sate Cheetahs however this game never reached great heights as a betting median. The Bulls opened $1.33 favourites and conceding 8½ points while the Cheetahs were $3.25, an attractive price for a team which was impressive in its semi-final win over Western Province. Our final wager was $5000 on the Bulls conceding the start, so it is no surprise that the 42-33 score line is somewhat disappointing from our point of view, however it was a great game but not the result retiring Cheetahs skipper, Rassie Erasmus was looking for. For the Rugby purists there are some interesting Internationals coming up in November which will only heighten the taste for next years Super 12s competition. CRICKET The third test in Nagpur is well under way, and with the second test proving that there wasn't a lot between these two sides when the matches are played in India, and Sachin Tendulkar being back in the Indian side, we saw a terrific spread of money for all three options before it got under way on Tuesday. As is usually the case, there was good money for the draw. Bets of $USD 40,000 and $USD20,000 were placed on the 'draw' at $2.25 from two of our Indian regulars before several substantial bets for Australia at $2.70 (including $8000 and $4000) saw that price drift to $2.40 prior to the commencement of play. That was when punters got serious with a further $USD80,000 for the draw from the sub continent and also a bet of $50,000 for India at $4 once it was announced that Tendulkar was back in the side. It didn't take long into the match for those supporters of the draw to rip up their tickets as the Australian batsmen took control of what was a mediocre attack on a perfect batting strip. No doubt whichever side can make inroads into the top order will become pronounced favourites. GOLF Ryan Palmer became the fifth rookie to win in the 2004 season, producing a final round ten under par 62. A round which the old King, namesake Arnold Palmer, would have been proud of. Commencing the final round some five shots behind wily veteran Tom Lehman and Briny Baird, Palmer birdied four straight holes down the stretch to close out the event and the challenge launched by the worlds number one, Vijay Singh, who was attempting to win his fourth PGA tour event on the trot. An errant drive and three putt on 16 put pay to the Singh charge, although his five under par 67 was enough to earn him a tie for second and within $200,000 of becoming golf's first $10 million man. With two events of the PGA season to go it is expected that the hard working Fijian will achieve that marvellous feat. Back to the 28yo rookie Ryan Palmer. The $756,000 winners cheque was not the only prize Palmer won, along with a bronze trophy of Mickey, Goofy and Pluto he also receives an invitation to play in this weeks Chrysler Championship which may enable him to earn enough money to squeeze into the top 40 on the money and therefore a spot in the Masters. Winning can get you a long way!! On top of all that Palmer may receive a trophy from Centrebet for being the most unlikely player to halt Vijay Singh's winning run and preventing a pay-out in excess of $200,000 had the Fijian been successful. This week Vijay Singh has again been the median of support with our regular Singh follower placing $37,500 at $5 to capture his first Chrysler Championship title, an event he finished second behind Retief Goosen last year. Goosen is on the second line of betting at $13 along with Phil Mickelson, while the consistent Stewart Cink is next at $21. Apart from Singh, Canadian Mike Weir has been solid in the betting at $34, backed to win $100,000 by a client from NSW while there has been nibbles for Australian Stuart Appleby at $41 and Jerry Kelly at $51. Whatever the result, one thing is certain, Vijay Singh will give Centrebet another scare before the tournament is over. On the European tour, South African Richard Sterne gave Centrebet a surprise winner when he captured his maiden tour victory in the Open de Madrid. The twenty-three year old former South African amateur champion was friendless in the betting at $151 and although one stroke in front of Irishman Graeme McDowell leading into the final round he was considered a serious threat. Nothing could have been further from the truth as he closed out with a near flawless five under par 65 for a two shot victory over Denmark's Anders Hansen. McDowell stumbled to a two over par 73 as he has done on two previous occasions this season, and now has raised the question as to his temperament under pressure. The 2004 European Tour season comes to a close this week as the Volvo Masters Andalucia, the European equivalent of the Tour Championship, takes centre stage at the famed Valderrama Golf Club. The top 60 on the Volvo Order of Merit qualify for the event however only 54 will be competing this year. Heading the betting is in form Spaniard Sergio Garcia at $8 from Harrington, Westwood, Donald and Jimenez all at $13. There is good money for a lot of the competitors this year including Thomas Levet, $34 into $31, however best backed has been Harrington and Donald both to win in excess of $100,000 from one of our bigger betting golf clientele. The event was won last year by Swede Frederik Jacobson who hung on to win in a play-off from Carlos Rodiles, however like other big names Ernie Els, Retief Goosen and Vijay Singh, he has failed to make the trip. Nevertheless this will be one hell of a golf event, and if the frenetic betting is any indication then it is bound to be hotly contested. RACING The Cox Plate saw some intriguing betting trends before Savabeel went on to win the big race. As we reported last week, Savabeel had been the medium of a nation wide plunge early in the week after trainer Graham Rogerson had declared his star three year old a 'certainty'. Race punters love a 'tip', and that sparked huge interest in Savabeel from rank and file punters, and the odds came tumbling into $9 from the 421 that they had been early in the week. At the same time, there were some false reports doing the rounds that all was not well with the favourite Starcraft, and even though we had taken bets of $40,000 and $20 000 for Starcraft on Wednesday at $3, his price blew out on Friday and Saturday. As we said, the unfounded rumour surrounding Starcraft saw it drift in the betting, but that made the race an even better betting event than it already was as punters steered clear of Starcraft. Elvestroem eventually started favourite, and attracted bets of $16,000 and $10,000 as he firmed from $4.75 into $4, Grand Armee drew three bets of $5000 at $5, while even the outsider, Miss Potential, was backed to win $150,000 at $151 by a client from New Zealand. On the day of the race, the 'hype' surrounding Savabeel had disappeared, and as a result, he eventually blew out to $15, with very few bets struck for him on race day. That won’t be the case this week as Savabeel will go around as one of the warmest Derby favourites ever. He is currently at $2.50, and in a two horse betting duel, Western Australian stayer Plastered ($3.50) is really the only other runner we have seen any money for. The Geelong Classic, formerly know as the Geelong Derby Trial has never been a really good pointer for finding Derby winners, but it was hard to miss the impressive display put up by Lions Gate last week. The Tony McEvoy stayer is currently at $9, and his breeding suggests that he shouldn't have too much trouble running out the 2500 metres, just as his half brother Black Friars did several years ago. The old saying of 'where there's smoke, there's fire' was never more evident than what we saw on Melbourne Cup betting last Sunday. Elvstroem was backed all over the country to win the Melbourne Cup, and in amongst several small bets that we accepted, there was also one for $2000 at $26. Now people just don’t go around wasting $2000 on horses unlikely to be starting in a race, and we read with interest in Monday's paper where trainer Tony Vasil was mystified as the support because Elvstroem wasn't running in the Cup. Then only a few hours later, Elvstroem was paid up as a third acceptor, so how does that look? Makybe Diva maintains her status as Cup favourite at $4 ahead of Vinnie Roe at $7, but 2002 winner Media Puzzle continues to shorten now that Damien Oliver has confirmed he will be taking the ride. While we haven't taken any large bets for Media Puzzle ($9), Oliver has such a big following, as does Media Puzzle, that we have had no trouble at all laying him to smaller punters. BASKETBALL Wollongong's unbeaten run came to an end in Round 4 at the hands of the much improved Cairns Taipans. Adelaide, Perth and Wollongong now all boast a 4W-1L record and as Perth host the other two teams in the next two rounds we will get a good chance to line up the leading clubs. Even though it is still very early in the season the trend of wins on the road being hard to come by is undeniable. Five teams are unbeaten at home (Sydney and Cairns as well as the aforementioned three) whilst only Perth at 2W-1L can claim a winning record away from home. In Round 5 action Cairns will see how tough life on the road really is with three games in four days, at West Sydney, Sydney and Adelaide. One win would be a good result from that difficult trio of matches. The only real upset in Round 4 was the Tigers, with Andrew Gaze in vintage form, claiming a win over the Razorbacks. Punters tipped in plenty on that game but got it back with five of the seven winners being favourites covering the spread. Pre-season favourites, the Brisbane Bullets had a win and a loss which was probably acceptable but with a 2W-5L record and Kevin Freeman on the sidelines for a couple of games with a groin injury they will not want to lose too much more ground or the task of a top four finish will become extremely difficult. We have had to suspend Championship betting on the WNBL until Lauren Jackson's future is determined. If injury prevents her suiting up with the Capitals they won't make the playoffs but if she plays they can definitely win it. Such is her dominance. Both unbeaten teams Dandenong and Sydney will be challenged this week by Adelaide and Bulleen respectively and an upset or two is a strong possibility. ELECTIONS Hot on the heels of a $1.9m turnover on the Australian election, the American Presidential election betting broke through the $500,000 barrier last week. The USA election is progressing along similar lines to the Aussie election in so much that both candidates are very easy to lay at the moment. It is only a matter of extending each price a little, and straight away there is money there. As it stands at the moment, George Bush is $1.45, with John Kerry at $2.50, and some of the bigger bets over the past week include $30 000 ($1.47) and $15 000 ($1.43) for Bush, both from Australian clients, and $USD 8000 ($2.50) and $USD 7500 ($2.70) for John Kerry. While most elections we cover are fairly easy to predict, this one is nearly impossible because of the money being bet by Australians, and for that matter people from other countries outside of the USA. The three biggest bets taken so far, two of $50,000 and another of $30,000, have all been for George Bush, but all three have been placed by Aussie punters. Because Centrebet is relatively new to USA punters, we aren't going to get a big enough cross section of the community to form an opinion one way or the other, but at least we know one thing, Australian political punters think that George Bush will be returned! ENTERTAINMENT I know that the Australian Idol judges sometimes appear as though they are coming from 'left field', however they appeared right on the money about the performance of Casey Donavon on Sunday night, and more importantly the punters agree. We posted Casey at $5 after Monday nights vote, and with our first wager of $200, it is an indication that there will be more money to follow. Not surprisingly on Sundays performance that Chanel was voted off, which now leaves two males, and two females, although we are not as adamant after Casey's touchdown that the two males will fight it out. Last week, the solid support for Chanel ($11into $7) continued right up until showtime on Sunday, and she was backed to win close to $40,000. Unfortunately for her, she copped a bit of a 'bagging' for her performance, and her outfit, on Sunday night, and as a result of that, she is out of the competition. Courtney has grown in popularity as the series has progressed, but last weekend's performance was very ordinary, and the judges also gave him a pasting. Courtney has drifted out to $5 now, and although we took nearly $3500 for him last week, punters are now extremely wary as it does look increasingly likely that Anthony Callea ($1.45) will be the new Idol. Although we gave $67 for Anthony during the first week of betting, and he has been favourite for 80% of the competition, he is only a small loser in our book, and we are happy to keep it that way! Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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